22-05-2003 07:07									#1
	Civ3's PRNG Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

http://sirian.warpcore.org/civ3/epic27d.html

If you lose five times in a row; brake off your attack.

	22-05-2003 09:38									#2
	Full PM-box? Change here!

This should be in General...

I DO NOT KNOW whether Civ3's PRNG is truly random, serial random, or rather reverts to the published / patched mean.

Pretty important.

And while I respect Sirian tremendously, I less than respect his stance. As in: single deck 21 versus Backgammon. Gimme a break...

	23-05-2003 07:43									#3
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

This is a bump...this is the last time i will bump this...

	23-05-2003 08:04									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

MJW, your conclusion 'if you lose five times in a row; brake off your attack,' how did you arrive at this?

5 pips? 5 units?

	23-05-2003 17:29									#5
	Increase the size of your Attachments

I read the article; but I didn't catch anything in it that would lead to this conclusion.

What I did catch is that the RNG is sort of predictable, but it is applied to things that shouldn't be randomized in the first place. At least that's what I got from the author.

	23-05-2003 21:32									#6
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

hi ,

play test it yourself , it can well be that you loose the first five or even eight and then you win everytime , ....

if the time is right go for it with everything you have as soon as possible , simple , thats it

have a nice day

	24-05-2003 22:22									#7
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

http://www.kalikokottage.com/civ3/s...ic14_700AD.html

This battle was highlighted by the losing of 17 consecutive rounds of combat. Yep, SEVENTEEN rounds of combat, in a case of 4 attack versus 6 defense. My calculator says that there is a .017% chance of that happening, or about 1 in 5000. Don't ever try to tell me that the RNG isn't streaky at times. Needless to say, I killed 0 defenders and lost 8 knights, with the other 3 fortunately retreating.

	24-05-2003 22:52									#8
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

I don't think anybody has ever said the Civ3 RNG was not streaky... just that streakiness is not in conflict with the "expected" RNG output... if there is a .017% chance of losing seventeen times in a row, it means that it can happen.

If you run a million battles and get much more/less than 170 of such events happening, then it would be time to question the randomness of the numbers generated. But ONE occurance of such thing says nothing... losing seventeen times in a row is unlikely, but possible.

EDIT: had the number wrong.

Last edited by vondrack on 24-05-2003 at 23:07

	24-05-2003 22:57									#9
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I lost 21 Archers to 2 regular Spearmen once.

That game ended quickly.

	25-05-2003 01:52									#10
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Has anyone ever complained about the RNG when they win a lot of battles in a row?

	25-05-2003 02:03									#11
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

The thing about the RNG is you never know when the streak will break. If you are engaged in an important operation, you'd best have enough forces on hand to carry through a small streak. If you run into a situation such as Trip described, well then... that is very unfortunate, but extremely uncommon.

	25-05-2003 02:58									#12
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If you take out a deck of cards and spread them out randomly, what were the odds of that certain pattern occurring? Huge number... 51x50x49x48... = n

yet, lo and behold, that pattern is right there in front of your very eyes. So, sorry, but even tiny odds tend to happen. I just suffered atrocious casuaties in a swordsman war with Japan a few hours ago, yet suffered very little in a similar war with China a few days behind. Just luck.

	25-05-2003 04:58									#13
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

It's a shame the RNG is streaky, though, it gets into of "all-or-nothing" situation, when it should have been something in the middle.

	25-05-2003 05:02									#14
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

quote: Originally posted by zeit It's a shame the RNG is streaky, though, it gets into of "all-or-nothing" situation, when it should have been something in the middle.

Exactly. Losing many many times in a row is as bad as winning many times in a row. Just because I'm a human player and I want to win doesn't mean that I should defeat the AI's 8 Swordsmen in a jungle tile in every battle with my Horsemen. I like to win, but I would like it to be a challenge.

	25-05-2003 06:39									#15
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

I still think the Civ2 hit-point system was far superior to this one...