30-05-2003 22:57									#271
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

A continuing Presidential Commission (started, iirc, in 1993) report isn't good enough for you? Do you want the 1997 version which says the exact same thing, but is under a President that you like?

	30-05-2003 22:58									#272
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by JohnT Kid: "Right, there is a surplus which is used for other govt obligations." No, I meant any of the money. If Congress enacted a law tomorrow that stopped all SS checks but kept the taxes, there's not a single thing anyone can do about it. Let me quote the USSC again: "The proceeds of both the employee and employer taxes are to be paid into the Treasury like any other internal revenue generally, and are not earmarked in any way." And they aren't, despite what you might hear of a "trust fund."

No one here believes that benefits could even be cut, but you believe that they could be eliminated all together

	30-05-2003 23:00									#273
	Got spare money?

Wrong. No one here believes that they can be cut today. Otoh, when looking at fiscal collapse in 2032 (or whenever) people's attitudes will be quite different.

	30-05-2003 23:06									#274
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by JohnT Wrong. No one here believes that they can be cut today. Otoh, when looking at fiscal collapse in 2032 (or whenever) people's attitudes will be quite different.

And this is when the contributers/beneficiaries ratio is to be 2:1. Many of the retirees will have already exausted their savings, assuming times will be so hard, and you think they are going to support an elimination of their benefits?

	30-05-2003 23:08									#275
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

They won't have a choice, Kid. That's the nice thing about the Social Security problem - it will be solved, one way or another.

And what about the other side of the ratio - do you think they want to suffer 50%+ tax rates to pay for 1/3 of America to sit on their duffs?

	30-05-2003 23:11									#276
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by JohnT They won't have a choice, Kid. That's the nice thing about the Social Security problem - it will be solved, one way or another.

Just because the fund goes broke doesn't mean that benefit payments will stop.

quote: Originally posted by JohnT And what about the other side of the ratio - do you think they want to suffer 50%+ tax rates to pay for 1/3 of America to sit on their duffs?

Of course not, but they want their SS too, and they won't want their parents to move in with them.

	30-05-2003 23:13									#277
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

"Just becuase the fund goes broke doesn't meant that benefit payments will stop."



Of course, we could just expand the national debt to $54 trillion. That'd be nice.

	30-05-2003 23:19									#278
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Maybe the economy will grow at 10% and we won't have to make these hard choices.

	30-05-2003 23:33									#279
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

I thought you were in Fresno, not over in Humboldt County.

	30-05-2003 23:36									#280
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Why should that be my problem?

It's sort of an implied obligation. Obviously the crown can cancel those at will, but it's often easier to pay off the rabble than it is to deal with rebellion.

	30-05-2003 23:47									#281
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat It's sort of an implied obligation. Obviously the crown can cancel those at will, but it's often easier to pay off the rabble than it is to deal with rebellion.

The rabble has a choice to make. They can either deal with a little pain now or watch in horror as thier pig trough collapse when the shell games can no longer keep the Ponzi scheme solvent.

	30-05-2003 23:58									#282
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious It's not smart at all. A bunch of poor people would have to let their parents live with them. I for one will be outraged.

Well, if people piss their way through their lives, with the attitude that "I done spent my money on two packs of Marlboros a day, bottles of Jim Beam and lotto tickets, and I didn't do **** about my retirement, so now the government owes me," you can take a fair guess how sympathetic I am to that argument.

People who have no choices - real disabilities, etc., are in a different category, and should be helped, but that's not what we're talking about here, we're talking about the mass of average retirees who've been able to work all their lives.

It's smart to realize that the present system is fiscally and mathematically unsound, and that phasing out that system and relying on your own personal retirement planning (with former SS taxes legally mandated to go into those private retirement plans), with very limited allowable investments, will vastly improve the funds you have available at retirement. Coupled with the renewed notion of personal responsibility, you can add some real government and corporate responsibility, in terms of reforming holes in present pension rules, so that employee pensions can't be liquidated for creditor's benefits in bankruptcies, etc.

	31-05-2003 00:03									#283
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc The rabble has a choice to make. They can either deal with a little pain now or watch in horror as thier pig trough collapse when the shell games can no longer keep the Ponzi scheme solvent.

It's a question of which rabble. Those that are close to retirement age and who've been forced to pay a ton of cash into the corrupt system have little or no time to adapt.

The 18-35 or so year olds have all the time in the world to adapt, so a phase out should take into consideration how much each person has paid in and for how long.

	31-05-2003 00:07									#284
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Well, if people piss their way through their lives, with the attitude that "I done spent my money on two packs of Marlboros a day, bottles of Jim Beam and lotto tickets, and I didn't do **** about my retirement, so now the government owes me," you can take a fair guess how sympathetic I am to that argument.

You might be suprized to know how many hardworking thrifty people there are who don't have enough savings to retire with when they get to be that age.

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat It's smart to realize that the present system is fiscally and mathematically unsound, and that phasing out that system and relying on your own personal retirement planning (with former SS taxes legally mandated to go into those private retirement plans), with very limited allowable investments, will vastly improve the funds you have available at retirement. Coupled with the renewed notion of personal responsibility, you can add some real government and corporate responsibility, in terms of reforming holes in present pension rules, so that employee pensions can't be liquidated for creditor's benefits in bankruptcies, etc.

I'm still waiting for you to tell me how the transition costs will be funded in such times of crisis.

	31-05-2003 00:09									#285
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat The 18-35 or so year olds have all the time in the world to adapt, so a phase out should take into consideration how much each person has paid in and for how long.

That depends on your income. I'll be 35 this year and I'll be damned if I'm going to let my SS go.

	31-05-2003 00:23									#286
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

But you're a dirty commie.

	31-05-2003 00:35									#287
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by Azazel But you're a dirty commie.

I just got out of the shower

	31-05-2003 01:13									#289
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious You might be suprized to know how many hardworking thrifty people there are who don't have enough savings to retire with when they get to be that age.

I'm a southern Democrat by origin, remember? I have kin scattered all over western Virginia, Kentucky, and even some, God pity the wretches, in West Virginia. Some of them are fairly prosperous, at least by local standards, some most definitely are not.

There problem with that as a counterargument is that SS benefits are based on the maximum 40 years of contributions - so if you have two people who are lifelong minimum wage earners, of course they won't have a pot to pee in come retirement time. But they won't get enough from SS to make much difference, either. If their income goes up, so do their private savings opportunities, as fast or faster than their SS benefits.

quote: I'm still waiting for you to tell me how the transition costs will be funded in such times of crisis.

Only one time of crisis - the exit from the system. Figure it'll take three decades (since you're going to cover current beneficiaries and anyone within a decade of eligibility for benefits) to pay most people out of the system based on actuarial tables, and that transitional costs will initially be more or less linear (varies with population pool at benefit age and income distro) for those three decades, then trend downward on a curve. In the intermediate cases (people more than a decade from benefit eligibility, less than a decade from having started work subject to SS holdings) you'll need some funds for one time buyouts.

Make the initial payouts of the system funded in the short term by a series of tax-exempt treasury bonds, as well as the benefits for the current folks and those within a decade of initial eligibility. The ongoing payouts for those intermediate folks will be less (as they'll have lower SS benefits and higher private benefits the younger they are), but will be paid out of the general treasury - but whatever combination of taxes, spending cuts and borrowing the Congress would authorize as part of the transition.

The largest part of the transition costs in order would be the initial buyout/tax refund for transfer into qualified private accounts, then the ongoing benefits for the 52 and over crowd, then finally the transition costs for the ~26-52 year old crowd.

	31-05-2003 02:48									#290
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Sounds good to me MtG... Especially with many tax defered investment vehicles having existed for the past X or so years.

As I stated earlier, I think the government could also benefit for allowing for opt outs in return for said tax breaks. That way they need not pull up large amounts of money, just not collect on money that they would other wise get. I know some ppl, my folks included, that don't need the SS. I am sure there are many wealthy ppl out there who, despite having paid SS for their whole lives, have still managed to accumulate large sums of wealth. Yet, in comparison to what they have earned or amassed that SS ain't going to amount to a hill of beans. Instead give 'em a 20-25 years of SS credit that they can apply to various tax right offs or reductions... traditional roll overs of personal retirement accounts, tax free trusts, or a reduction in income tax for those continuing to work once the are able to collect SS. This would be much better than offering all these people one time buyouts, and in a sense would cost the government nothing. In the end it would actually free up money that could be taxed on afterwards.

	31-05-2003 03:15									#291
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Only one time of crisis - the exit from the system. Figure it'll take three decades (since you're going to cover current beneficiaries and anyone within a decade of eligibility for benefits) to pay most people out of the system based on actuarial tables, and that transitional costs will initially be more or less linear (varies with population pool at benefit age and income distro) for those three decades, then trend downward on a curve. In the intermediate cases (people more than a decade from benefit eligibility, less than a decade from having started work subject to SS holdings) you'll need some funds for one time buyouts. Make the initial payouts of the system funded in the short term by a series of tax-exempt treasury bonds, as well as the benefits for the current folks and those within a decade of initial eligibility. The ongoing payouts for those intermediate folks will be less (as they'll have lower SS benefits and higher private benefits the younger they are), but will be paid out of the general treasury - but whatever combination of taxes, spending cuts and borrowing the Congress would authorize as part of the transition. The largest part of the transition costs in order would be the initial buyout/tax refund for transfer into qualified private accounts, then the ongoing benefits for the 52 and over crowd, then finally the transition costs for the ~26-52 year old crowd.

The transition costs will last for at least 60 years. Who is going to pay for the old system when the total benefits max out in 2040 or so? You're still going to have people and employers paying into the new system too.

Remember of course that all these costs count. Who would support this? This would be the biggest disaster in history. It's bad enough with the current costs. There's no way we could afford this.

Even if there were long term benefits to privitazation, and there's not, we couldn't even break even for 200 years at least. No way is this worth adding additional costs during a financial crisis.

	31-05-2003 03:26									#292
	Increase the size of your Attachments

quote: Originally posted by Japher Sounds good to me MtG... Especially with many tax defered investment vehicles having existed for the past X or so years. As I stated earlier, I think the government could also benefit for allowing for opt outs in return for said tax breaks. That way they need not pull up large amounts of money, just not collect on money that they would other wise get. I know some ppl, my folks included, that don't need the SS. I am sure there are many wealthy ppl out there who, despite having paid SS for their whole lives, have still managed to accumulate large sums of wealth. Yet, in comparison to what they have earned or amassed that SS ain't going to amount to a hill of beans. Instead give 'em a 20-25 years of SS credit that they can apply to various tax right offs or reductions... traditional roll overs of personal retirement accounts, tax free trusts, or a reduction in income tax for those continuing to work once the are able to collect SS. This would be much better than offering all these people one time buyouts, and in a sense would cost the government nothing. In the end it would actually free up money that could be taxed on afterwards.

Tax breaks when we're running deficits are no tax break at all. We end up paying more taxes because of the borrowing costs.

	31-05-2003 03:44									#293
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Taking a look at that SSA handbook, I have to say congrats - that's even worse a mess than our rules.

I gather the following: standard age 65, early retirement 62 with reduced benefits, the basis is averaged over 35 years. As to the actual benefit, they refer to tables that "are not included in this Handbook because it is not possible to keep them current."

But if that results in say an average contribution base of 50.000$, I don't see how much pension you'd get after 40 years of work.

	31-05-2003 03:57									#294
	Get a bigger avatar today!

It took you a while to figure out that you can't figure it out.

	31-05-2003 04:04									#295
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

Took me about 10 minutes to see it's hopeless. But I had guests in the meantime, and I really didn't tell them "Hey look, I found that fascinating stuff about US social security, let's discuss it..."

	31-05-2003 11:31									#296
	Put an end to popups!

The first thing I thought of when I saw this thread title was "please god, let them cut Social Security." I barreled in here all ready to make my case, only to find that MtG had already done so in a fashion I couldn't hope to match. God bless you, Michael the Great.

To deal with another topic that came up in this lengthy thread, Warren Buffet is indeed a genius, like all Nebraskans. Bob Kerrey is another typical Nebraska savant, which is probably why he spent much of his career in the Senate pushing for entitlement reform. It's really too bad that the man left; we need more people like him if we ever want to kill the Social Security beast.

	31-05-2003 11:49									#297
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious The transition costs will last for at least 60 years. Who is going to pay for the old system when the total benefits max out in 2040 or so? You're still going to have people and employers paying into the new system too.

As opposed to the ongoing system, which just keeps losing payer to beneficiary ratio ad infinitum? Yes, I'm just sure we'll return to the days of average five kid families and lots of new workers every generation, and lifespans will decline back to 1940's levels as well.

quote: Remember of course that all these costs count. Who would support this? This would be the biggest disaster in history. It's bad enough with the current costs. There's no way we could afford this.

We can't afford the present system, except by ****ing with it to make it meaningless. "if we push the mininum benefit age back another five years, and average the top 50 years earnings instead of forty, and tax all income, but means test benefits, and give CPI - 1.5 COLAs instead of CPI - 1, and add lots of double plus good newspeak..."

quote: Even if there were long term benefits to privitazation, and there's not, we couldn't even break even for 200 years at least. No way is this worth adding additional costs during a financial crisis.

Just because you've adopted "all privatization is bad, all government is good" as a mantra doesn't make it reality. Some privatization is bad, some is not. SS is nothing but a regressive income tax disguised as a retirement benefit, to dupe an ignorant public into paying more taxes without complaint.

Tell you what, if you have so much faith in SS, I'll sell you my contributions for 40 cents on the dollar - each year, you reimburse me 40% of what I pay in, from this point forward, and when I'm old enough to collect, I'll deposit the benefits to your account straight away. You pay for only 40% of what I contribute from age 43 on, but you get the 100% of the benefits. I'll come out ahead by a country mile, guaranteed.

	31-05-2003 11:53									#298
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler As to the actual benefit, they refer to tables that "are not included in this Handbook because it is not possible to keep them current."

The translation of that is "we're so constantly ****ing with them that we have no clue how bad they'll be next week."

Another point is that showing the exact amounts would make it easier for people to see how badly they're being shafted. And that's never good policy.

	31-05-2003 12:07									#299
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by Kidicious There aren't THAT many baby boomers. True, they are a larger generation, but they aren't as big as people are making them out to be. The histeria in here is absurd. There have been no serious projections that have predicted that the current system can not be maintained with some minor adjustments.

Hell, the SSA tells you that itself. Census data tells you about the generational shift, and there are a huge number of sources for actuarial projections, etc.

The only absurdity is your head in the sand denial that there's a problem, when the people running the system say there's one.

	31-05-2003 12:46									#300
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Just because you've adopted "all privatization is bad, all government is good" as a mantra doesn't make it reality. Some privatization is bad, some is not. SS is nothing but a regressive income tax disguised as a retirement benefit, to dupe an ignorant public into paying more taxes without complaint.

All of us forget reason and are blinded by our prejudice occasionally, but I think in this case it's you. Just use cost\benefit analysis. With your privatized system you have huge additional costs for many many years, and then you MAY, again MAY, have an extra 1 or 2% more return on a riskier investment. At that rate it will take you forever to break even. It's just not worth it.

I know it's going to be tough with the current system, but there is no better alternative.