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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Jack_www
The last poll I heard that they ran on this issue, 51% of voters support recalling Gray Davis. Also I doubt that Davis can solve the buget crisis. Look at what he did with the energy crisis. Now we are stuck paying higher rates because of him.
I think they will get the needed signitures. |
The problems I see with it are more strategic - from the Republican standpoint, hopping into a high risk fiscal crisis is pretty dangerous. A replacement on a recall will have a higher expectation to fix things, and less of an ability to blame the incumbent. If I was a Republican, I'd be pretty hesitant to hang my political future on being able to fix this mess, especially with essentially the same legislature that contributed so much to causing it. I'd like my chances much better in 2006.
From the Democratic standpoint, relatively few politicians are willing to be seen as backstabbers, and risk lukewarm or non-existent future support from the state party machine. They'll move if it's obvious the tide's carrying them that way, but only then.
Articles I've seen suggest it'll cost about two million to get the signatures required for certification - that may be a bit high, since there are an exceptional number of people who'd like to politically match up Davis with a tree, a horse and some rope, but the two million cost estimate can't be very high - there's a good experience base with the cost of petition drives for state ballot initiatives.
Two million is a lot to spend on a political gamble, without knowing who the replacement candidates are. Issa or Riordan can spend it themselves, but it's still a hot potato, and there's the campaign costs after that.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Du_Chateau
60 million might be a little bit money compare to the state's budget but I will put it more manageable terms. 60 million can help improve the system schools and hire the adqueate amount of teachers needed. 60 million can keep a couple of low income hospitals open and fund firefighters. 60 million can also be use the keep the highways up to snuff and to make mass transit more assessible. I can think of more better ways of spending 60 million dollars than a frivolous recall election.
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60 million won't get you near 35 billion, which is the hole the state's looking at.
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I am not a fan of Grey Davis. I dislike his cuts in education but I would not like to see futher cuts in services. |
There are only three possible approaches, or some combination of the three: More taxes, when they're already by far the highest in the US, less spending, or improved efficiency in the delivery of services, so more of what does get spend reaches the end user of those services.
More taxes is counterproductive, because it will lengthen and deepen the recession in California, and drive more employers out of state. Less spending is problematic, because service levels will decline. Improved efficiency in service delivery is the best goal, but the least attainable in the time frame necessary to solve the crisis.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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Not much at all.
Evangelicals and other conservative Protestants already hate Davis and have fixed views on the abortion issue.
The biggest Catholic constituency is Mexican-American of course, but the battleground issues between Republicans and Democrats in the Hispanic communities are really based on standard of living, education, and other primarily economic, working class and middle class issues, plus a history of race/immigration issues.
In the San Joaquin valley, there's also a union vs. farm and ranch owner split, representing a classic owners vs. workers issue going back to the early Cesar Chavez days, so the hispanic vote there is more heavily Democratic. In the urban and suburban parts of the state, things like US immigration policy, discrimination, etc. have hampered the Republican party.
So the position of the Catholic church really is very limited in it's influence.
It's also a potential problem legally, if you're familiar with the Lucy Killea case some time ago, although I don't think a "suggestion" that Davis stop taking communion is a problem. An order denying him communion, or any other coercive steps, is a 501(c)(3) status issue.
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MBD
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
Two million is a lot to spend on a political gamble, without knowing who the replacement candidates are. Issa or Riordan can spend it themselves, but it's still a hot potato, and there's the campaign costs after that. |
I thought I read in an article somewhere that if the recall vote ever happens, the ballot will also include a list of candidates from which the voters have to choose a replacement governor. The vote would require only a plurality, not a majority, and that candidate takes office right away.
And I agree it would be better for a number of reasons for the Republicans to stay clear of this.
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Zkribbler
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Los Angeles, CA, USA
Feb 1999
time: 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
The Dem legislative response to the crisis (exacerbated by DWR's ****ups on long term energy purchases) is to tax the hell out of everything that isn't already taxed to hell. |
During the good years, the long-standing deal between the Republicans and Democrats was a dollar-for-dollar matching of increased spending with tax cuts. Now, that more money is desparately needed, Davis has suggested reversing the process--every dollar in increased taxes matched by a dollar cut from spending. I wasn't aware that rolling back tax cuts in an even-handed manner was "taxing the hell out of everything."
Rather that spread the hardship among everyone, the minority Republicans demand the budget be balanced by solely by cutting spending--on schools, hospitals, the highway patrol, road repair, the court systems, prisons, etc.
Last week, one of the networks (IIRC CBS) carried a story on county medical emergency rooms being constantly overwhelmed with patients. The emergency care facility said to be the most overcrowed in the nation is County-USC here in Los Angeles. Since that time, many of the doctors there have been given lay off notices. 
quote:
The notion of taxing business and jobs out of the state (which is already non-competitive in terms of all other costs of doing business) doesn't occur to these collective Einsteins in the California Democratic Party.
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And what happens to the businesses when they learn of lack of police, overcrowed medical facilities, poor public schools, pot-holed roads, closed courtrooms, prisoners being turned loose early to save money, etc., etc., etc.? Y'think they'll love it here?
Oh, and just curious--48 of the 50 states are in budgetary crisises. Is Gray Davis responsible for the problems in all 48 states or just in California? 
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Timexwatch
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Columbia Heights, Washington D.C.
Jul 1999
time: 00:28
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
The problems I see with it are more strategic - from the Republican standpoint, hopping into a high risk fiscal crisis is pretty dangerous. A replacement on a recall will have a higher expectation to fix things, and less of an ability to blame the incumbent. If I was a Republican, I'd be pretty hesitant to hang my political future on being able to fix this mess, especially with essentially the same legislature that contributed so much to causing it. I'd like my chances much better in 2006.
From the Democratic standpoint, relatively few politicians are willing to be seen as backstabbers, and risk lukewarm or non-existent future support from the state party machine. They'll move if it's obvious the tide's carrying them that way, but only then.
Articles I've seen suggest it'll cost about two million to get the signatures required for certification - that may be a bit high, since there are an exceptional number of people who'd like to politically match up Davis with a tree, a horse and some rope, but the two million cost estimate can't be very high - there's a good experience base with the cost of petition drives for state ballot initiatives.
Two million is a lot to spend on a political gamble, without knowing who the replacement candidates are. Issa or Riordan can spend it themselves, but it's still a hot potato, and there's the campaign costs after that. |
I haven't been following this close, but from what I've read, my gut feeling is that no serious candidate who hopes to have a political future will run to replace Davis. I'm guessing that the only people who will run if Davis is thrown out will be state reps coaxed into it with the promise of a nice, cushy job when they get done. Any Dem who seriously goes against Davis right now is likely to get purged if he survives the recall.
As for future Republican Govs, IIRC, wasn't Cong. Ose thinking about running for governor?
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Timexwatch
I haven't been following this close, but from what I've read, my gut feeling is that no serious candidate who hopes to have a political future will run to replace Davis. I'm guessing that the only people who will run if Davis is thrown out will be state reps coaxed into it with the promise of a nice, cushy job when they get done. Any Dem who seriously goes against Davis right now is likely to get purged if he survives the recall.
As for future Republican Govs, IIRC, wasn't Cong. Ose thinking about running for governor? |
Yeah, Ose is, but he doesn't have statewide name recognition. Solano County and environs really aren't a big launching ground for state office. I've never dealt with Ose himself, but I have dealt with the head of his local staff and his office in California. They just look so Republican  , but they're pretty professional, competent, and able to deal pragmatically with most of the political interest groups in the state.
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Jack_www
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quote:
Originally posted by Du_Chateau
60 million might be a little bit money compare to the state's budget but I will put it more manageable terms. 60 million can help improve the system schools and hire the adqueate amount of teachers needed. 60 million can keep a couple of low income hospitals open and fund firefighters. 60 million can also be use the keep the highways up to snuff and to make mass transit more assessible. I can think of more better ways of spending 60 million dollars than a frivolous recall election.
I am not a fan of Grey Davis. I dislike his cuts in education but I would not like to see futher cuts in services. |
Well I am sorry to say this but California has a 38 Billion hole, and we are going to have to make really deep cuts in the buget. Rasing taxes will only make the economic stituation even worse. Bussiness are moving out because of taxes and other expenses already, putting in place more taxes to fund the out of controll spending by the legislature will not make things better.
Davis is not going to make the cuts needed to get the state out of debt and netheir will legeslature. Davis has given raises to prison guards and the firefighters even in the mist of this crisis and of course they are supporting Davis during this recall effort.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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quote:
Originally posted by Zkribbler
During the good years, the long-standing deal between the Republicans and Democrats was a dollar-for-dollar matching of increased spending with tax cuts. Now, that more money is desparately needed, Davis has suggested reversing the process--every dollar in increased taxes matched by a dollar cut from spending. I wasn't aware that rolling back tax cuts in an even-handed manner was "taxing the hell out of everything."
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What "tax cuts" 
Oh yeah, we did get rid of that "temporary" 10% personal income tax bracket, and the 11% personal income tax bracket, that only affect the really big income earners (200k and change for the 10%, 400 something for 11%) Of course, we've kept the 9.3% maximum tax rate for personal income tax. Oregon has a maximum 9.0 percent income tax rate, but no sales tax. Vermont has a higher maximum income tax rate at 9.5%, but that doesn't kick in until you have over 307,000 in taxable income for a single taxpayer - California's 9.3 percent kicks in with less the $40,000 for a single taxpayer.
California has the highest aggregate state tax rates of any of the 50 states, for both personal and business taxes.
Sales tax? Statewide 7.25 (higher by .25 or .5% in most counties) is the highest in the US.
Corporate tax rate? 8.84% flat rate, with a minimum tax even if the corporation loses money. Down from 9.6%, and not quite the highest in the US any more (but close), but those "tax cuts" are in many cases offset by increased special district fees, etc. When you combine sales taxes (businesses are only exempt on items used in resale, not items consumed unless they are source materials for products manufactured) and state mandated workers compensation insurance costs, California is once again back on top.
Subchapter-S Corporations, where individual owners are taxed on their share of all corporate profit, just like a partnership? They still get a 1.5 percent corporate tax, despite the owners also being taxed on all profits. Hey, friendly to small business, ain't we? The only state that directly taxes S-Corporations. Yay, California!
Then there's all those county and local taxes. One percent tax on all business personal property... Property taxes on all real property... Motor vehicle registration fees (much higher than almost all states), alcohol, tobacco and gasoline taxes (gasoline taxes which aren't used for transportation), then all those special assessment district taxes, hotel taxes, on and on.
California has the most bloated state bureaucracy in the US, and a tremendous inefficiency in delivery of services. What's ironic is that you, the only kneejerk supporter of Davis in this thread, pointed out the same thing when you talked about what you did as newly stuck union head. Millions of dollars already lying around in segregated funds for things like new courts that weren't going to get built, computer systems that weren't going to be installed, etc. Gee, that never happens elsewhere in the state, does it? That sort of nonsense within the state bureacracy is endemic, as is the overall poor efficiency in delivering services.
Gee, you can't go into a local DMV office (which your taxes support) and renew a car registration. You can put your renewal form into a little box to go to Moscow, er, Sacramento, but you could do that from any mailbox. And guess what? Now that Moscow, er, Sacramento is the sole point for DMV processing (unless you're smart and join the auto club, which is a private entity  ), loss and delay in DMV renewals is extreme. The system is more costly and less efficient than ever. Renewal checks are sat on for weeks before they're deposited, paperwork isn't processed for two, three, four weeks after the check that's finally deposited clears the bank, and the paperwork isn't mailed out after it's processed for another week or so, if at all.
In fact, the last three notices of any kind I've received from the good ol' State of California (none DMV), all have been postmarked 8 to 10 days after the automatically issued notice was dated. You have a hundred billion dollar state budget, and you can't mail out automatically generated letters for over a ****ing week? That ineptitude and inefficiency wouldn't have anything to do with the budget, now would it?
quote:
Rather that spread the hardship among everyone, the minority Republicans demand the budget be balanced by solely by cutting spending--on schools, hospitals, the highway patrol, road repair, the court systems, prisons, etc.
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The first and foremost place to deal with the budget crisis is directly with the inefficient agencies which contribute to it. That's where "the pain" belongs, and if the damn state agencies can't do the job, then privatize it. And I'm not even a big fan of privatization, but it can't be worse than the abysmal job the state does.
Road repair? Depending on the road, the majority of that is either Federal or local money. How about toll roads? State highway 73 rocks (a private toll road)
Schools and prisons? There has been a shitload of capital expenditure on new schools and prisons over the last decade. Gee, how well was the money spent?
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Last week, one of the networks (IIRC CBS) carried a story on county medical emergency rooms being constantly overwhelmed with patients. The emergency care facility said to be the most overcrowed in the nation is County-USC here in Los Angeles. Since that time, many of the doctors there have been given lay off notices.
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I have a friend who was (in his early practice days when he needed the bucks) an ER doc at Rampart. He had his car stolen or stripped from within the staff parking lot seven times in less than two years. Great security there, huh? And that was in the boom days when all sorts of money was being thrown around the state.
quote:
And what happens to the businesses when they learn of lack of police, overcrowed medical facilities, poor public schools, pot-holed roads, closed courtrooms, prisoners being turned loose early to save money, etc., etc., etc.? Y'think they'll love it here?
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Police are locally funded, and the new practice seems to be to charge for service calls. County medical facilities? Not a real concern to business. Poor public schools? Gee, with the amount spent on education and the bureaucratic resistance to vouchers, I doubt many people want to throw more of their money that direction. Pot-holed roads? Mixture of local and Federal responsibility for most mileage of roads in the state. And if the state didn't plunder state gasoline tax revenues into the general fund, and instead reserved even a portion for transportation, we wouldn't have a problem with the state maintained roads. Closed courtrooms? I'm sure most businesses here wish that the lawyers would go away too, since California is by far the most litigious state in the US, and has the highest liability insurance costs, as well as the highest workers comp costs. Of course the Democratic party and Democratic legislators being the whores of the California Trial Lawyers Association doesn't give much hope for legal reform. Prisoners being turned loose? Gee, what happened with all those new prisons and jails? And maybe, you have to ask yourself what's wrong with the system when you have the highest inmate population around?
I'm sure business would just love to throw even more money at a state government that has proven so competent at both managing it's finances and solving it's problems. It's like giving money to a crack-whore.
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Oh, and just curious--48 of the 50 states are in budgetary crisises. Is Gray Davis responsible for the problems in all 48 states or just in California? |
Nice try at a straw man. How many of those states have the highest tax rates, among the worst levels of provision of services, and are looking at a 12-18 month shortfall in excess of $1,000.00 for every man, woman and child in the state? Fince me a few more state like that, and I'll go as far as admitting Davis and the California bureacracy has some company for being the most incompetent and inefficient.
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Timexwatch
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Columbia Heights, Washington D.C.
Jul 1999
time: 00:28
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
Yeah, Ose is, but he doesn't have statewide name recognition. Solano County and environs really aren't a big launching ground for state office. I've never dealt with Ose himself, but I have dealt with the head of his local staff and his office in California. They just look so Republican , but they're pretty professional, competent, and able to deal pragmatically with most of the political interest groups in the state. |
All the NoCal republicans are soooo Republican. Ose, from what I know, is a stand up, man's man buy you a beer kind of guy (So one of his former LAs told me). Is he based out of Solano? That's west of Placer/Tahoe, right?
The NoCal republicans are a fairly decent lot, if their DC staffs are anything to go by. They talk and even cooperate with eachother
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:28
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Solano is due west of Sacramento, directly north of Contra Costa County across the Sacramento River Delta. Ose's district is one of those heavily gerrymandered things that goes from part of Solano County in the wast, through part of Sacramento County, then all of Amador, Calaveras and Alpine Counties south and east of Sacramento.
I think Ose's local office is in Sacramento. When I dealt with his staffers, it was at the Solano County Planning Commission, mediating an issue between Solano County, the California Dept. of Fish and Game, and the US Fish & Wildlife Service in a jurisdictional dispute relating to the Delta Green Ground Beetle, a little bug I came to know and love, even though it was nowhere near the affected lands.
Although the staffers looked so Republican it made you cringe, they were no-nonsense, let's talk to everybody and work this out types, so I had a pretty good impression of them. They were pretty well informed on general environmental and resource agency issues, listened, picked up on the important issues, and effective in dealing with the USFWS misunderstanding.
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Jack_www
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quote:
Originally posted by Zkribbler
During the good years, the long-standing deal between the Republicans and Democrats was a dollar-for-dollar matching of increased spending with tax cuts. Now, that more money is desparately needed, Davis has suggested reversing the process--every dollar in increased taxes matched by a dollar cut from spending. I wasn't aware that rolling back tax cuts in an even-handed manner was "taxing the hell out of everything."
Rather that spread the hardship among everyone, the minority Republicans demand the budget be balanced by solely by cutting spending--on schools, hospitals, the highway patrol, road repair, the court systems, prisons, etc.
Last week, one of the networks (IIRC CBS) carried a story on county medical emergency rooms being constantly overwhelmed with patients. The emergency care facility said to be the most overcrowed in the nation is County-USC here in Los Angeles. Since that time, many of the doctors there have been given lay off notices.
And what happens to the businesses when they learn of lack of police, overcrowed medical facilities, poor public schools, pot-holed roads, closed courtrooms, prisoners being turned loose early to save money, etc., etc., etc.? Y'think they'll love it here?
Oh, and just curious--48 of the 50 states are in budgetary crisises. Is Gray Davis responsible for the problems in all 48 states or just in California? |
First of all California debt is greater then the other 47 states combined. No other state in the Union has the debt that California is facing now.
Like Micheal the Great said we spend billions and billions on all these survices, and still things dont get better. The problem is not lack of money, it is how it is spent and used. Since Davis came into office taxes money coming into the state government has increased by 25%, while population and inflation have only increased 21%, but Davis has raised spending by 40%.
Also the government waste in Calfornia is really bad.
All I want is people in the legislature and a governor that will do what is need to end this crisis. To not to raise taxes, to end the waste in the government and try to make Calfornia a place bussiness want to come to and thus grow the economy and taxes money the state collects. Davis will never be able to do that.
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Jack_www
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quote:
Originally posted by Dissident
did I hear right? I just heard fox news say a 50-50 chance of him being recalled. |
That sounds about right from all that I have heard.
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Jack_www
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quote:
Originally posted by GP
I agree. I might even put the standard at worse transgressions than what Nixon and Clinton did. I think they both deserved to be impeached and punished. But not removed. (Can the impeachment result in punishments other than removal?) |
When you impeach a elected offical, that is so that you can remove him or her from office. Usually it is done when the person has commited a crime. Once they are out of office that is when they press criminal charges if any against the person for the crimes they commited. I know for sure when you impeach a President and then it goes to trail in the Senate, all they can do is vote to kick him out of office or let him stay and that is it.
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Jack_www
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I heard Bill Simon come on a local radio talk show the other day. From what I heard it sounds like he wants to run again if the recall goes through. I hope that he does not run, he is an idoit when running for office, any office and he does not have any stated plan on fixing this mess.
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15-06-2003 06:17
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