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Zkribbler
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Los Angeles, CA, USA
Feb 1999
time: 21:28
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From Friday's New York Daily News:
quote:
Jobless at 20 year high
Most unemployment claims since 1983
By JUDITH SCHOOLMAN
DAILY NEWS BUSINESS WRITER
Jobless claims have been rising this year.
In an ongoing sign of the weak economy, the number of Americans getting unemployment benefits hit the highest level in more than 20 years during the last week of May.
But on the upside, shoppers sent retail sales higher last month as the war in Iraq ended, the government said.
The employment picture remained gloomy as productivity improved but companies held back on hiring, awaiting firmer signs of economic strength, the Labor Department said in its weekly report on jobless claims.
The ranks of the unemployed rose to 3.8 million, the highest since early April 1983, from 3.68 million in the prior week, the Labor Department said.
Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week by 17,000 to 430,000, still above the 400,000 mark that indicates a weak labor market. New claims have been above 400,000 for 16 weeks in a row.
"The numbers are disappointing, but the reality is that the economy can sit around with a jobless recovery," said chief economist Bill Cheney of John Hancock Financial Services.
"As long as the job market doesn't collapse," Cheney said he had no worries about declines in consumer spending, or "a slide back into another recession."
Meanwhile, the nation's retail sales rose 0.1%, but would have risen even more had gas prices not declined, the Commerce Department said.
Sales fell 0.3% in April, while excluding autos, they fell 0.9%.
"It appears that consumers have begun to bounce back from the Iraq-induced doldrums," said National Retail Federation chief economist Rosalind Wells.
"What's most encouraging is that discretionary spending is up - clothing, appliances - which indicates consumers are feeling pretty confident," said Stephen Stanley, economist at Greenwich Capital.
Unemployment "is a lagging indicator, but it compels [stock market] traders to feel even more strongly that we're ripe" for an interest rate cut, said Brian Piskorowski, market strategist at Prudential Securities.
Economists said yesterday's economic numbers, along with anecdotes from the Fed's recent "beige book" report, suggested the central bank could cut interest rates by one-quarter point to 1%, a level last seen in the late 1950s when Dwight Eisenhower was president.
Wall Street payed more attention to Altria and AT&T than to the reports, see-sawing for much of the session.
The Dow added 13.33 to 9,196.55. The Nasdaq rose 7.60 to 1,653.62.
Altria fell 78 cents to $42.90 after the Illinois Supreme Court refused to hear its appeal of the $10 billion judgment against it in a smoking suit.
AT&T rose $1.03 to $21.53 on reports that the phone company could be a takeover target.
With Tom Van Riper
Originally published on June 13, 2003 |
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Kidicious
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Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:28
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I don't believe that a 'jobless recovery' is no recovery at all. It's starting to look like the low unemployment numbers during the 90s are going to result in very high unemployment for this decade. In the nineties the tech sector was growing because businesses were buying new equipment to improving productivity. We are still seeing productivity improvements because it takes time to use the new tools productively. As sales of business equipment declines (glut) and productivity continues to increase the unemployment rate will rise.
edit: fixed the error that Imran found.
Last edited by Kidicious on 15-06-2003 at 06:42
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Edan
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Just to point out, this article is using total number of claims, which is somewhat misleading, given that the population of the US has increased. If you look at the percentage of unemployment, as can be seen here, you can see that the last time we had these numbers was in April '94.
(Of course, the number are only so good, since they only keep track of people who are unemployed that are still recieving unemployment compensation, IIRC. Which mean that the real percentage of people unemployed is probably higher.)
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Kidicious
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Diety of Kidiverse
Mar 2003
time: 21:28
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Unemployment is decreasing here, but the trend between the 60's and the 80s is increasing. If we are on that increasing trend we are set for a big upswing.
I can't get the graph up but here is a link.
Last edited by Kidicious on 15-06-2003 at 07:37
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Zylka
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Everyone knows it's a trailing indicator, right? Good. Now let's please censor the word "Bush" from this thread
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Cruddy
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Hmm... Not a totally negative report but still not good.
If unemployment is still rising fast, that would suggest it's going to get worse before it gets better.
I really dislike unemployment. It's not a national thing, it's a personal thing. Being unemployed really does screw your thinking around.
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15-06-2003 05:54
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