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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:28
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It looks a lot like Vox will be off our continent soon, one way or the other... 
We've started the Courthouses and Marketplaces, which is good, but where from there?
Forbidden Palace:
Our shot at another Leader for the FP is pretty much nill in the near term future, and so building it by hand is going to be a key project. While building it near the bottleneck would be the best position, it's also going to take far too long without a Leader.
Arashi can be quite productive within just a few more turns, and IMO is the best bet for now. Later, the Palace can be moved, and most of our current cities will still be in pretty good shape with Courthouses. This will 'hurt' Hurricane's production somewhat, as Arashi moves in front of it for closest city. It helps Arashi though, and Arashi is a bit more productive short and long term. The 10% boost in optimal cities from the FP should mean that none of our cities actually takes any perceptible hit from their current corruption levels too.
To build the FP in Arashi, I think we should switch from a Market there to a Courthouse and have it as one of our first rushes. The commerce boost won't be quite as high, but we'd need all the extra shields we can get. With a Courthouse, and boosted to size 12 with workers (some Irrigating of Grasslands to support it), Arashi should be at ~15 turns to finish the FP. It will be a major boost to overall efficiency.
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Tech and Wonders:
We need to decide which branch we want to run up. We should have Theology and Engineering in time to choose either one, but Education is probably going to be available to research before Invention. I'd prefer the top half, as it gives us shots at Copernicus' and Smith's, not to mention Banks and Universities. We're going to want to start the proper prebuilds very soon.
Tempest is an obvious choice, and would probably be timed very well for Smiths if we start it after a Marketplace and Library (and don't push the tech rate too fast). If we have the Marketplace and Library up aroudn the time we get Theology, and then average 6-8 turns per tech on the way (Education, Banking, Economics, with Astronomy thrown in along the way) it works out very well.
If we can get the Collosus (200) in Hurricane, we probably can also get Copernicus (400) there, as that would put us at roughly 30 turns for both. We'd need to start the Collosus within the next couple turns. I would expect Astronomy to show up in roughly 25 turns (5 for Theology, 10 for Education, 10 for Astronomy, unless we're pushing it). Newton's (400) after that is a possibility too, given the tech rate the others seem to be content to keep.
Copernicus is one we could really use though, and it might be worth it to try and guarantee we get it by building in another city without the Collosus (if we do go for/get it). EotS would be a good spot for it after their Marketplace/Library, and would be able to build it in 20 turns, but runs the risk that it's prebuild options get built in the meantime (somewhat unlikely). Tempest could do it the same way, but then we likely miss out on a very good shot at Smiths. That would allow us to time it so we finish it the turn we finish researching Astronomy, and no one is likely to beat us to that point. We could use the Great Wall (200 shields)/Great Library (400)and then later Leo's (600) (trade Education for Invention, or something along those lines, if the GL gets built first) to get to it.
Leo's itself is one that would really help too, but if a Bob war breaks out, it's far and away the most likely one to get rushed by a Leader IMO. I also think GoW may very well be using the Great Library as a prebuild for it (they may just want the GL themselves though), and if that's the case I can't see any of our cities beating them to it. We are at 30 turns for it, and GoW's Capitol is size 7 and probably at ~300 shields into the build.
The other civs have their GA's coming up... but perfectly timing prebuilds can still beat them to wonders if they aren't doing it themselves (and pushing tech faster than we are). If we get enough of the right wonders (Smiths, Copernicus, Collosus, Newtons, and ToE), our land is good enough to keep us above the commerce/research capacity of any non-dominant Bob civ, and maybe even Lego as well since at least some of their land will be in the hands of Vox, and is rather dismal land in any case.
Most of these prebuilds preclude building Universities first, but our research should still be fast enough with just Libraries to time it right. In a disaster (meaning we lose a wonder, with no others to switch to), Universities are the best fallback options to build. Universities are also things we can't be 'beat' to as postponed builds.
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:28
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The idea is for us to drive tech at a reasonable pace up the 'wonder' path. This allows us to time techs and prebuilds perfectly... the tech pop-up allows us to switch to the wonder from our prebuild, and not even a Leader can beat us to building it in that case.
With Libraries in Hurricane, EotS, and Tempest at size 12, with Markets and 5 Luxuries, we should be able to keep the tech rate where we want it until someone's GA starts. Lego is the only problem here really, as the other's GA's aren't likely to be peaceful. (GoW had a shot, but I can't imagine why they'd wait this long to build the Great Wall)
If we can convince Lego to take the lower branch of tech, perhaps with a JS Bach's clause, then we should be driving tech along the upper branch at the pace we want. RP's choice for Monarchy isn't terrible, given the support numbers we are paying, but still probably eliminates them from being major players in the tech race. GoW and ND would need to focus their GA on military, as that's how it will be triggered.
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:28
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quote:
And it all comes down to a smaller benifit sooner vs. a bigger benifit later. |
Not sure I agree with the comparison. I've been using most the comparitive adjectives in quotes, as it more depends on what we do with the benefits now than their up front worth.
A 'small' benefit now can be leveraged... a tech lead, more of an ability to intervene if necessary on Bob, ect. Those things can then be leveraged... a tech lead can become ToE, which makes the tech lead bigger.
I'd guess it would be mid-industrial before the 'better' placed FP catches up. Game may be over by then, and probably will have been decided one way or another. Any advantages from that point on may very well be inconsequential, and may not be able to overcome the indirect advantages we've leveraged our gains into.
The questions for me comes down to these:
Do we think the game will have 'played out' before the Modern Era?
Given our landmass, with our FP and Palace this close together, will we win the game if it comes down to a space race? Or do we have to have a Palace jump to Bob/other landmass to compete long term in the tech race.
How far are we willing to go to leverage short term gains into long term ones? (wonder building, military expansion, ect.) How likely are we able to do so?
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:28
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In my experience, the space race is about wealth and science, not production. Spaceship parts really aren't all that expensive production-wise, and prebuilds can further assist the production angle. In MP, the race can also be very heavily about partnership. Two civs with significantly less research capacity each, working together, could easily freeze out and out-research a bigger civ with greater ability to research on its own.
Such ability for a coalition of weaker civs to gang up on a stronger one economically and in research, not just militarily, is starting to get on my nerves more than a little. Basically, it can easily make the game one of, "Who do we want to let get a fair deal?" rather than one of "Who can play best?"
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Theseus
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The warmonger formerly known as rpodos. Gathering Storm! Apolyton Spirit!!
Apr 2002
time: 00:28
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Nathan, we have to face up to the fact that we are out on the playground now, after school, and there is no teacher watching.
Whereas I won;t go as far as Vondrack (i.e., "putting up with bullshit"), we have to accept that we are in a different paradigm. That's fine... my basic premise is that if others are going to define a framework of which we do not approve, we must then BREAK that framework, and re-build a structure to our own liking, or at least acceptance.
In simpler words: Any time something in this game gets on our nerves, fine, let's f*ck everybody up, and do the unexpected, OUR way. Good diplo / military tactics, don;t you think? 
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nbarclay
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Huntsville, Alabama
Dec 1999
time: 23:28
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Arashi is only five tiles from EotS. That could work well if it proves to be a game breaker for an opportunity to invade Bob and move our palace there, since it would help keep our biggest and most productive cities productive. But if we don't get such an opportunity (and the other teams just might stalemate each other into peace, or we might not be as militarily successful as we'd like to think, or we might win nicely but not get a leader to move the palace in a timely manner), having our FP only five tiles from our palace could be virtual suicide in the long term.
What we probably ought to do is start prebuilds in both places. Rushing improvements to set up both prebuilds will be expensive, but the flexibility is probably worth it. If we get a good opening on Bob, we build in Arashi for the short-term wealth and production boosts. If not, we try to find a wonder for Arashi and build our FP at Dissidentville or D9. (By the way, the fact that Dissidentville, or D9 with a temple, can work two mountains at size six would be a real help, even if it does mean our workers will have their work cut out for them between that and the jungles.)
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Arrian
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Kneel before Grog!
Jul 2001
time: 00:28
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quote:
If we do end up moving our Palace, Arashi is better than D7. It keeps our river, and our main cities, all more productive. |
True. In a SP game, Arashi would be my FP spot, and I'd be fishing for a leader to move my palace.
But like I said, I just don't think we're going to be able to pull that off. We would need to:
1) invade Bob or Lego
2) capture a significant amount of territory/cities
3) generate a leader
4) be able to defend it, and our homeland.
I'd love it if it happened, but I just don't think we should plan for it. Really, what would we gain from a FP in Arashi until we move the Palace (IF we move the palace)? Slightly lower corruption in some really marginal cities (ok, Dissville area would probably be much improved), and still-crippling corruption up in "Estonia."
-Arrian
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Velociryx
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of Candle'Bre
Apr 1999
time: 05:28
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I agree that 5 tiles between capitol and fp is too close for the long term, but I do believe that we now have a sufficient land-base that we can more than just "keep pace" with the rest of the kids on the playground. We are in the lead right now, and although that will surely be eroded somewhat as we transition fully back to builder mode and absorb our new lands (and as other civs have their GA's), we must not overlook the fact that a direct attack at GS is not the easiest, nor the most expedient way for another civ to grow and challenge us.
Consider Bob. As far as we know (I do not believe we have any solid information regarding the size of Lego's continent?), Bob is the single largest landmass on the planet, and a civ in firm control of most or all of Bob would have an enormous advantage.
Right now, Bob is fairly evenly divided, but as the game continues, I would expect tensions to escalate there, with a 2:1 situation developing in hopes of eliminating one of the Bobans and splitting his lands between the cooperating survivors. The civs on that continent will likely trigger their GA's when war erupts, and spend theirs much the same way we spent ours, and it would behoove us to be in a position to assist the underdog in that fight (both strategically and diplomatically).
As the biggest power, we can truly play the role of puppet master, and that is how we can win this game.
-=Vel=-
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:28
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I just ran a simulation. Three different FP sites and likely city placement. Don't read too much into the numbers, as for quite some time most of our productive cities (regardless of where we end up building the FP) will be in the S. Also, most of the bonus wonders we are able to grab (Collosus, Copernicus', Newton's hopefully) will also be in the S, Tempest, Hurricane, and/or EotS.
Case 1: FP Arashi
Case 2: FP Dissidentville 7
Case 3: FP Elipolis 7
Without ever moving the Palace (and not having any holdings off Stormia), these are the 'end' numbers we will be generating (everything built).
1: +477 gpt
2: +578 gpt
3: +620 gpt
With holdings off of Stormia: (used most of RP's territory, GoW's territory should be similar or slightly better. Likely scenario for us to get onto Bob is alliance in a 2v2, each of the victors taking one of the opponents land)
1: +786
2: +746
3: +651
I think we can expect RP at about 600-700 with their territory now. It wouldn't suprise me any if Lego was the same or slightly better. GoW/ND are in the same boat as us, and need expansion of the military sort to compete with RP and (probably) Lego in the end game tech race.
Suprisingly, a FP at the bottleneck is pretty much the same whether we move onto Bob or not, and puts us close to competitive either way (as long as a giant doesn't emerge on Bob).
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So this is what I think we should do. Build the FP in Arashi ASAP. Start a rather long FP pre-build at the bottleneck. The FP in Arashi will help it be a bit faster, probably around 40 turns. In 40 turns it should be clear whether or not we are going to get onto Bob in a reasonable timeframe. If we can get onto Bob, and get a Leader, we move the Palace there and take our maximum. If both those don't happen, we 'disband' (liquidate into Workers/Settlers) Arashi once the FP prebuild is ready, then rebuild Arashi. We should be able to have Arashi back up to speed within a few turns of disbanding it.
This way we get a short term boost ASAP by building our FP in Arashi. Then we have the option to have our 'max' empire if things go right on Bob, and if not, will have our 'max' Stormia empire set up to take over about the same point D7 would be catching up to Arashi in efficiency.
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15-06-2003 16:07
Aeson!
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