22-06-2003 02:35									#1
	The Situation on Bob Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I can see signs of war coming on Bob, soon. GoW's recent behaviour regarding a longer NTA for chivalry as well as their keen interest in an NAP are telling, I believe.

Who would it be vs whom? That is the question. Certainly, it would not be 1v1. The 3rd Bobian would surely pick a side and enlarge their position even if they were not part of a pre-war alliance. It must be 2v1, so we will assume that as a precondition for this discussion. But which 2 vs which 1?

We need a summary of the signs, the tell tale clues, and a discussion of them. By combining the clues that we can pick up from other teams, getting them all on the table, we can then sort and evaluate for how they go together, just like a jig saw puzzle.

- GoW is not particularly interested in a second source of iron. ND is their current source. GoW would be unlikely to want to attack ND without an assured backup. I severely doubt that Lego would provide them iron to aid them dividing Bob with RP. RP could be counted on to supply them from day 1 of the war if RP are their allies vs ND.

- GoW is very interested in an NAP. They are not too choosy about the length (short is OK by them). That would indicate the war is coming soon.

- ND wants a lengthy NAP.

- RP is not actively pursuing us diplomatically. There have been discussions, but they are not pressing us for trades or other deals.

- RP do not seem to mind pushing the matter of their galley exploring our waters. They do not seem to think they have anything to lose by possibly annoying us.

That is what I can think of for now. I will update this first post as and when others post bits that appear to be part of our puzzle.

	22-06-2003 02:38									#2
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As of now, I am reading our puzzle as GoW and ND vs RP. With ND as an ally, GoW's iron worries are gone. The fact that both GoW and ND have pursued NAPs may indicate that something is up, and they know it.

OTOH, RP does not seem too fussed about us, and in fact, are demanding rights to do things that would result in war if they pushed the wrong team on the issue. Mark my words, Togas and the boys know they are being provokative with that galley. They don't care. That would lead me to believe that they are not contemplating an offensive war with our super gallies on their long, unguarded flank. If they are not contemplating war, but a 2v1 is coming, that leaves RP the odd civ out.

The target is RP.

	22-06-2003 02:57									#3
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Could be, ND and GoW have both hinted at disliking the way RP has tried to control them.

The thing I'm not sure of is if ND would ever want a bunch of Riders passing through their lands, even as allies...especially with their forces engaged to the S. Would take an awful lot of trust. Of course they seem to have it, as they are relying on GoW to get to Chivalry.

	22-06-2003 03:03									#4
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That seems like a logical conclusion. I agree that the fact that ND and GoW are actively seeking NAP suggests that they plan on starting a war with RP soon and don't want us siding with Togas (as if!).
We'll have to keep a close eye on things over the next few turns to see if anything happens to change that analysis.

If that does happen (and we would NEED in-game proof of a war - we don't want to show our hand too soon by falling for another diplomatic trick) then I think we should ally with GoW and ND and carve ourselves a piece of the RP pie.

If we could negotiate some small territory rights on South Bob as payment (they won't give us much, but even one city would be useful) then we could give them a hand. We wouldn't have to use many resources. Just harassing RP from the south and dividing their defences would be a big help to the GoW/ND alliance.

The ultimate goal would be, I think, that after RP are dead that we would ally with Lego against both GoW and ND. Or maybe with both the Bobian civs against Lego ... or something.

Nevertheless, I think that beating up on RP would be of more benefit to us than allying with them in that situation.

	22-06-2003 03:31									#5
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Keep in mind that both GoW and ND get golden ages out of the fight, while RP doesn't. Two on one, plus the advantage of GAs? RP would probably be toast without help unless the GoW/ND alliance makes some pretty serious mistakes, and we'd be left with a two-civ alliance controlling most of not all of Bob if we don't intervene on RP's side. I'm not all that fond of RP, but I'm even less fond of the idea of ND's ending up with a significantly larger amount of territory than RP is currently poised to expand into.

	22-06-2003 04:34									#6
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I think we must wrangle our way into much of RP's space if these things come to pass. We would gain much more that way.

	22-06-2003 06:57									#7
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ND & GoW vs. RP? That would be, um, bad.

I'm just checking in for a moment (friend hanging out, beers being drunk, not much time for 'poly), but I've already seen nearly a full page of "red" threads here in our forum I need to read. Much appears to be going on.

If ND & GoW take on RP, we could either hit GoW from the north, or we could hit RP too, and try to grab what we can... but I don't know how those two would react to us grabbing their spoils.

Ack!

-Arrian

	22-06-2003 07:11									#8
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quote: f that does happen (and we would NEED in-game proof of a war - we don't want to show our hand too soon by falling for another diplomatic trick) then I think we should ally with GoW and ND and carve ourselves a piece of the RP pie.

This seems to be the obvious solution, but would only a small part of the pie do us any good?.
We would only be there for as long as the Bobians let us.

What we need to do is take one of the bobins place(not easy by all means).


It would be much better for us of course if RP would be part of the 2 to 1 alliance. Where ND and GOW go up against each other and we take on RP.
-
An alternative might be to wait until both GA have ended and they lack in infrastructure as we do now.
That should/could give us some small window of opportunity.
If they all loose more then they gain, hmm, and even then we would need to be able to buy the other(s) off.
-
What if we do the completely unexpected and go after Lego while Bob is having a nice little war going? (would that even be possible?)

	22-06-2003 08:05									#9
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I think that any war on Bob should not be a deciscive one. If we can keep three civs on that continent, or get a large power base on the continent ourselves, we will surely win.

Think about it: if one or two teams take control of that continent, we've all of a sudden got a huge neighbor next to us.

From my point of view, we should just wait for war the break out on Bob - we know it will. Then, if the expected 2 vs. 1 alliance occurs, take the side of the disadvantaged, no matter who it is. If we can keep the Bobian balance of power in tact, our only concern will be the Legomen.

	22-06-2003 11:05									#10
	Re: The Situation on Bob Inflate your Upload Space

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither - GoW is not particularly interested in a second source of iron. ND is their current source. GoW would be unlikely to want to attack ND without an assured backup. I severely doubt that Lego would provide them iron to aid them dividing Bob with RP. RP could be counted on to supply them from day 1 of the war if RP are their allies vs ND.

IIRC that isn't possible, since RP doesn't have any trade routes with GoW that don't go through ND's territory. So if RP enters war with ND alongside GoW, they cannot initiate trades at all (and only we can trade with them).

I'm thinking that if it's a 2 vs. 1 on RP, then we should just carve a piece of RP for ourselves. RP has a elongated front line, which they will need all the troops they can muster to defend, and they have invested a lot in walls, so my guess would be that the rest of their border would be a lot less secure. Perhaps they'll be keeping some forces in the east, in case we decide to attack - in which case, we might wanna take the time to do the trip around the continent and attack from the west, but only if we can afford to lose time.

	22-06-2003 11:26									#11
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RP and GoW harbours are linked by coast around the west end of Bob. ND is not in the way.

However, additional indications are that RP is not about to start any fights soon. That agrees with common sense.

	22-06-2003 14:42									#12
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hmmmn a while back GK sent the message saying RP had loads of defensive units. Although the credibility wasn't good it is still worth considering. I like the idea of going after lego while they take RP.

	22-06-2003 15:09									#13
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RP might be playing a dangeroud game here: focusing on stout defense, as well as a relatively large standing army. Before the war of Voxian aggression, as I recall, they had the strongest army (in terms of the mil. advisor). Taking a direct approach of head on attack doesn't seem like the thing Togas would be fond of. I bet the sheer thought of war with RP gives ND the creeps, as RP always had a strong army, and an influence on GoW.

This might actually lead to a 1.5 Vs 1 war against ND (more likely) or GoW, if RP manages to keep the pressure on both teams, and offer their monetary support. Perhaps grabbing only the spoils of these wars, after the two GA powerd warring faction lose their edges.

I also tend to believe ND's desire for a NAP is different from GoW's- They are looking for a way to establish themselves as leading powers, and look for a (very) long-term strategic NAP (until 500AD, WOW!), while GoW is probably planning for the short term- the upcoming war only.
This might suggest GoW has some idea of what is going to happen, which might not be evident from ND's proposal.

I think GoW, being more chatty than ND, could shed some light on the situation... any ideas on how to approach them in order to get some tips from them? The usual drill (we've heard that... 'the winds of war blowing' and so forth) could work, but you probably have some better ideas as well...