29-06-2003 17:54									#1
	Comments/Observations on the New Maps Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I thought it might be nice to have an area to discuss the revelations of our new maps, so uh, here it is. (And may I humbly suggest that when we get GCA's map, someone immediately post a screenie of it, too?)

Initial Thoughts After Seeing CFC Map

Well. They weren't lying about the second iron-town. I think I'd get a little upset too if someone placed a warrior on iron BEHIND my lines. At first I wondered why they pushed so hard to keep it, but that's probably their best strategic reply to GCA's town- which is certainly in a very strong position offensively, defensively, and productively. The "will CFC ever get Riders" question is certainly answered, though. GCA is full of it about whether or not they could take on CFC later- those chokepoints are hell-designed to keep Riders from running rampant.

(When and if we ever come after GCA post-war with CDG, Balance of Power will probably be vulnerable to the "Trip manuever" that Elucidium now faces.)

CFC's land is probably the best on the continent (barring a massive eastern chunk we can't see for GCA), and if all things remained equal, they would likely grow to the largest and be a significant threat. Maybe this war has even another side benefit for us.

CFC's worker usage is unimpressive. Looks like we were the only ones fully aware of "The power of the worker."

There are six iron deposits that we can and apparently at least one more we can't - the one GCA is using - that means that probably at least one power on the other continent has no iron. Bet that's making for interesting politics.

Anyhow. Initial early-morning thoughts done. Can't wait to see GCA's map.

	29-06-2003 18:48									#2
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There's a nice island off the coast of CFC. They are not likely to explore it right away - but can we be quicker, building a galley in Hispanica and getting there first? At least we can sneak by CDG's choke point city.
The best chance of finding the other four would be to go west from CFC's coast. That little peninsula in the NW corner of the continent could prove to be important.

That's a lot of Silks. It would be nice to secure that, but they are probably out of our reach for now.

Now CFC has Incense, too! It's scattered everywhere...

	29-06-2003 19:17									#3
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Oh, boy, CFC can be idiots....

I look at their map and think, dang that city that they lost for the Iron wasn't really that Important, not to have a war over with their problems. Even with Industrious Workers, cutting roads through mountains can be a task.

They should have just built a city on that other Iron and had 3 FloodPlains to feed that cities Growth. And With that kind of Natrual Barrior that is between you and your enemy, you make use of it, not build beyond it.

Now, I think that CDG is going to be building on that Silks, unless they have a formal border agreement with CDG (can we find out).

E_T

	29-06-2003 19:35									#4
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To me the map provides the best opportunity for us yet -to get the Galley from Hispanica when it is built to get to that landmass to CFC's West. They will have MM next turn IIRC (the trade), and will be able to build a Galley, but are hardly likely with GCA coming for them. If we are quick we can get first contact with some of the other civs, or at least find some nice juicy land with possible huts in that direction.

	29-06-2003 20:47									#5
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Some comments:

The Bad News

1. CFC will have access to three Luxuries.

2. CFC will have access to both Horses and Iron.

3. CFC's lands are way better than ours in terms of production capacity. If they're smart they'll put Irrigation everywhere after Republic and use all those Hills and Mountains to generate a very scary army.

4. CFC's lands are easily defensible via chokepoints.

5. All this taken together, in addition to the fact that CFC does not have a "Jungle problem" and we do, makes it very clear to me that CFC is the favorite here, by a long shot. We should be extremely happy that CFC is at war so early, as if they're left alone for just a bit to build up, they're going to completely dominate our continent.

Recommendation: Keep CFC at war at all costs. No more of this "peacekeeping" stuff. We cannot afford to let CFC make full use of their awesome lands.


The Good News

1. If GCA's lands are even remotely as good we're also in luck (counter-intuitive, I know), since the two most powerful teams on our continent will be fighting it out.

2. CFC's capital, as ours, is poorly-placed in terms of Corruption. Ours is worse, but at least we're Commercial.

3. CFC's city placement, well, could be better. I'm surprised they're using such a loose pattern. It will be interesting to see if they "backfill" with military camps, or if they'll continue with their 4-spacing scheme.

4. The city of Cha Ching seems to indicate that CFC decided to place cities to grab land opportunistically instead of think of their economy first. There are about 5 sites that I would have preferred to where Cha Ching is placed.

Recommendation: Do not let CFC read our Strat Forum!


Other Stuff

1. That big lake is a pretty cool geographic feature. Once CDG is out of the way, I'm sure it will be a naval hotspot for our war against CFC.

2. Should we consider planting a city on one of the Silks and "rushing" Harbor there? If ever we go to war that city would be the first to go, but it sure would be nice to have access to 3 Luxuries. Personally I doubt we can spare the pop right now, but if that area does not fill up very fast it's something to consider down the road.

3. What will the other teams think of our lands and our position in the world?. This is a very important question. Until now we've been flying under the radar mostly because of our tight city placement. But the experienced player will notice that Apolyton is a sleeping giant here (for all the reasons we feel confident, minus the two Granaries, which they should not be able to figure out). The discerning eye will also figure out in an instant that CDG has painted a big red target on themselves with their economic practices for us to go in and deal a quick death blow. We can expect CDG to get wind of this.


Dominae

	30-06-2003 00:54									#6
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Well, CDG hasn't really been to bright at picking things off so I'm not sure they'll get wind of this... at least not with the current leadership.

As for the map itself, I totally agree with Dom that they have by far the best land we've seen so far. However, their city placement just totally blows, and from city placement we can guess their overall civ-mentality. First of all, why go and grab an iron so far away, when there was another close by which could have fit in easier economically with their empire? they could've just sent a warrior to camp out the other iron instead unless GCA beat them to it...

Diplomatically, well CFC was right all along. This was a war of agression on GCA's behalf, no doubt about it.

Well, let's hope the war drags in a little longer, and hope that CDG might swoop in at any time... hoopefully not before CFC is weakened a bit. I'd like to see all 3 teams a bit wary of war before we setp in and "intervene"

	30-06-2003 01:19									#7
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I count 8 Irons on our Continent. 2 for each Civ. The other 4 Civ's shouldn't have more than 1-2 Irons between them all. I guess it depends on how this map was generated and if resources were 'replaced' by the map maker.

	30-06-2003 02:29									#8
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1.5 * # of civs = 12 iron.

If there's 8 on our continent, that leaves 4 for the rest of the world.

Anyways, I did a simulation for CFC, to see what they're capable of. Using "logical" WF usage and making sure that Shen Ling was yellow (not growing), these were my results:

GNP 27
MFG 18
Prod 46

Shen Ling (their capital) easily reached 10 SPT.

Right now, we are:

GNP 28
MFG 26
Prod 62

So they have a similar GNP to us, though their MFG and Prod is no where near us.

Save file located here.

	30-06-2003 04:41									#9
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Some comment, not particularly on the map, but generally on the geo-political (don't love the word ) situation on our continent.

It seems we got a land with a bunch of somewhat unskilled and even childish neighbors- whether this is good or bad, I can't tell. But notice the fact that despite the relatively wide space for expansion for most civs (there is really enough space for everyone, except CDG maybe, but even they can manage and sort something with both neighboring civs, especially after getting a border agreement with us) and the all-around good staring positions of all civs, that

1) Tech trade has been realtively slow (or else how do you explain the fact that libraries are already built in another continent).

2) A war that is the result of anti-AI tactics, as well as lack of proper inter-team communication ensue even though at this point, both factions, especially the aggressor, is seriously hurt by this war, while the prospects of peaceful growth are so much promising than conflict...

Its time someone civilizes this continet, after all, this game is called Civilization, right?

And who would fit for the job better than Apolyton?

	30-06-2003 04:44									#10
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If what you meant is destroying them all then I'm all for it

	30-06-2003 04:53									#11
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quote: If what you meant is destroying them all then I'm all for it

The nice bit about "Civilizing" something, is that it can be interpreted and carried out in a variety of ways.

	30-06-2003 05:55									#12
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As BFM has pointed out in the Area X thread, We know that someone, on the other contenant (the "lost Civs") has finished researching Liturature (maybe Fraxis), but all indications show that they don't have any Libraries yet.

And as for Libraries, We might get one someday, but I beleave that our Priorities are more along the line of cash (Markerts) and reduction of corruption/waste (Courthouses) and general Happieness (Temples) before we are going to be working on our Literacy.

E_T

	30-06-2003 06:46									#13
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yep, good diplomacy will always net you the techs. And the way we've been tech-whoring as of late...

	30-06-2003 14:29									#14
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quote: yep, good diplomacy will always net you the techs. And the way we've been tech-whoring as of late...

Right, but it takes more than that. The cooperation of other teams and willingness to trust eachother to the point of collaborating research is also needed. I would say that for a 4 team continent, with some decent land for each team, that the research speed is quite low (at least when compared with the speed of research we had at this period in the game in the PTWG).

	01-07-2003 19:21									#15
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Right. Done another analysis on the map.

I feel it is almost certain that Jiang Mapi is using the roaded forested game (2/2/1) to the immediate West. With the city tile (2/1/2) this gives it (base)

Jiang Mapi
Food: 4 (2 surplus)
Shields: 3
Trade: 3

My best guesses for Shen Ling

I am also fairly certain that Shen Ling is using the Roaded, irrigated Game to the North along the river (4/0/2), the two roaded, mined bonus grassslands to the SE (2x 2/2/1) and the two roaded forests along the river (2x 1/2/2). The city tile gives 2/1/3. There are three possibilites for the sixth tile:

Max growth (for poprushing): The second irrigated roaded game to the S (4/0/1)
- total 16/9/12

Max shields: Another forest along the river (1/2/1)
- total 13/11/12

Max trade: The roaded horse along the river (2/0/2)
- total 14/9/13

Max food possible

The maximum food possible (at the expense of everything else) is from working both irrigated game (4/0/1 and 4/0/2), both mined bonus grass to the S (2x 2/2/1), the mined grass to the N (2/1/1) and the Horse (2/0/2) giving

Max food possible terrain gives:
18 (6 surplus!)/6/11

Max Shields possible (negative growth)

The max shields possible tenable for a short time due to food shortages is from both mined bonus grass to the S (2x 2/2/1), two roaded forests (2x 1/2/2) and two non-roaded forests (2x 1/2/1).

Max shields possible terrain gives
10 (2 deficit)/13/11

Max trade possible

The max trade possible is from working both roaded river forests (2x 1/2/2), the horse (2/0/2), the game to the N (4/0/2) and let's say the two mined grass to the S (2x 2/2/1).

Max trade possible terrain gives:
14/9/13

Giving us a final set of results:

Shen Ling
Food: 10-18 (2 deficit - 6 surplus)
Shields: 6-13
Trade: 11-13

Possibilities for Zhi Gang and Cha Ching

Here the likely worked resources cross over at one place: a roaded, mined fur (2/2/2).

First assuming that Cha Ching gets to work it:

The food will be the same whatever they maximise.

Max shields

Cha Ching can work the mined furs (2/2/2) and the grass (2/1/0) as well as the city tile (2/1/4) giving:

Max shield terrain: 6/4/6

For the max trade, the fish (2/0/2) can be worked instead of the grass.

Max trade terrain: (6/3/8)

In this case Zhi Gang will be unable to work that East mined fur, so...
(I have omitted the max food idea, as Zhi Gang will not gain from it. Also, the max trade has been left out, as this would involve coast squares and very negative food stocks)

Max shields
The roaded furs (1/2/2) to the N, the forest (1/2/1) and either the mined grass (2/1/1) or the Gold (1/1/3)

Max shields: 5/5/7 or 6/5/5

IF, on the other hand Zhi Gang gets the mined fur, then it can do:

Max Shields: 6/7/5 or 7/6/5

Cha Ching then must have the option of:

Max trade: 6/2/6 or Max Shields: 5/3/5

Now it is time to see how much corruption/waste results from these ideas.

I have used for my corruption calculations the equation from the thread 'Everything you wanted to know about corruption" posted in the Strat forum, under the Must Read thread, with the minor adjustments that the factor Ft for connected cities is changed from .85 to .8, and the idea that the distance corruption is rounded to the nearest 2% before application, as mentioned in a later post by vulture (I have the words copied if you're interested, but not the thread alas). This equation is not quite perfect, as a corruption of .55 rounds down to 0, but .6 or so rounds to 1.

Results:

First the easy one -

Jiang Mapi

With 4/3/3, corruption and waste amount to no difference, thus the effective amounts for this city are 4/3/3.

Shen Ling
There are several possibilities here. These are (before and after corruption/waste):

10-18/6-13/11-13

After corruption and waste, none of these change.
My most probable estimate here is the one of 13/11/12

Zhi Gang
Pre-corruption results cover the ranges:

5-6/5-7/5-7

The calculation predicts that the 3rd and 7th trade/shield will be corrupt/wasted, so the after-corruption results are:
5-6/4-5/4-5

Cha Ching
Pre corruption:
5-6/2-4/5-8

My calculations show that the 2nd, 5th and 8th of each are wasted, so possible post-corruption results are:

5-6/1-3/3-5

Interpretation

Sorry if you didn't follow alll that - I may have stuffed up a little somewhere as it is now 0143 here and I have been going at this for 2 hours. This is more or less what we can draw from these numbers as regards the war:

• Shen Ling can grow in size as quickly as every 3 turns or build a Horse in between 5 and 3 turns, a Spearman/Archer every 2-4 turns. I estimate Shen Ling is currently acquiriing more shields than food, as the GCA armies no doubt near....
  
  
• Cha Ching can get a Spear or Archer in 7 turns. a Horse in 10 turns minimum, and may be growing every 10 turns.
  
  
• Zhi Gang can get a Spear or Archer in 4-5 turns, a Horse in 6-8 turns and is almost certainly not growing.
  
  
• Jiang Mapi can build a Spear or Archer in 7 turns, a Horse in 10. The city will certainly grow in this time (+2 food) and then grow in only 20 more turns unless they are risking workers with irrigation.
  
  This picture shows CFC in a pretty dire state. Taking the total values of production and trade, we can guess at their GNP, Mfg Good, Population, Family Size and Productivity.
  
  As I am lazy and it is late, I will only make estimates of the non-food related parts.
  
  GNP - pre-corruption commerce = between 24 and 31. We are at 27 and 4th - this means they are likely on a par with us or just under if they have indeed upped their shield production for an army. There is someone else almost level with us (26) at the moment, as if we go to 28 we become 3rd, so they may be there.
  
  Mfg Good - post-waste resources = 14-24. Highly variable here, but I would err towards the high side, maybe 22 or so, if they are worried at all about their wellbeing with GCA looming. This would put them at 4th, as we are currently at 3rd on a value of 26. Fourth place is 22, so I guess this may be them.
  
  Well, that's it. Overall we can say that, although their land is more favourable than ours by far, they have not made very good use of it and, in these two figures at least, we are beating them by a small margin. This is bound to increase as the war goes on.
  

Last edited by MrWhereItsAt on 01-07-2003 at 19:54

	02-07-2003 01:39									#16
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My guess is that they have their capital at 10 SPT, and it's not growing. The only way for them to do that is a combination similar to what I have in my sim (using NEITHER game tiles at the moment).

	02-07-2003 01:41									#17
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Wow. Good stuff, Dubya.

	03-07-2003 06:07									#18
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Apolyton:

GNP 28
MFG 26
Prod 62

CFC:

GNP 27
MFG 18
Prod 46

Shen Ling reached 10 SPT.

GCA:

GNP 21
MFG 24
Prod 49

So CFC has a similar GNP to us, and GCA has a similar MFG.

Save file located here.

	03-07-2003 07:12									#19
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Wihtout going into extreme detail, I get equivalent results as Trip.

I haven't just taken one set of wf allocations into account but all reasonable allocations. This means I have taken them to working a the terrain that is best all-around (terrain is either better than anything else for GCA or it is a toss-up between food, production and trade), in all combinations I can see of max food, max shield, max trade or a good combination of each.

GCA:

Mfg Goods: 21-32
GNP: 13-22

Hence, as Trip says, they could match our production, but not our trade. CFC can match our trade, but not our production (or GCA's).

Catchopolis can make a max of 9 spt, with 1 food surplus. Otherwise 7 with 2 food surplus. Balance can make (and due to its size likely is at) 7 spt, and the others are 4 or below.

	03-07-2003 07:39									#20
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Actually, I got 8 SPT from Balance of Power, with 1 lost due to waste.

Keep in mind GCA is at war. They're likely emphasizing shields over food, so working a few forest tiles is not out of the question.

Also consider that 9 SPT is wasteful when producing Swordsmen or Warriors or just about everything. 8 or 7 SPT is more likely. So just because they could get the city up to 9 doesn't mean it's at 9. Just like Shen Ling with a possible 12 SPT. What do you need that extra 2 SPT for when you're producing a 30 shield unit?

	03-07-2003 07:40									#21
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After seeing GCA's map too, I think its obvious why they did what they did. Their back is up against a wall with no where to go but through CFC or through CDG's immortals. That land they demanded east of the mountains makes the difference in either civ being a mediocre power vs a super power on this continent.

Funny thing is, I think all of them have more or less discounted us for the time being due to our smaller size..... Working out that border with CDG looks like its going to turn out to be one of the smartest moves we've done as it'll put us totally off the radar They won't know what a mistake they've made until they see the stacks of swords/horses/mercs coming :P

	03-07-2003 07:45									#22
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It is possible, Trip, as my distance calculations are based on 1 for diagonal moves and 1.4 for non-diag moves, not actual distance. I'm still unsure which is more right.

Well, they are wasting space BIGtime. Why shouldnt they waste shields when building units that need fewer of them, too?

	03-07-2003 13:56									#23
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I posted this in the turn thread as well:

Some observations on the new map:

GCA has not explored all their tiles! This can be seen from the amount of sea/ocean visible. For example, they did not visit their southernmost mountain, or the coastal grassland tiles east of their capital.

They have one city less than both CDG and us! Compared to their score, this is good news.