04-07-2003 00:03									#1
	NEW!: Evil Plan 5.0 Remove this text

It's that time of year again...



Recent events on the continent have placed Apolyton in a very interesting and unique situation, a situation that we must take advantage from in some way or another, but it is also a situation which begs us to ask ourselves whether we lay low during the storm or get out of our jungle and fight.

Now, as much as we all love some good rough and tumble, we must weigh the options very carefuly, as a poorly-timed war may wreck our delicate development plan, while a well-timed war may well leave the path open for our dominance of the continent.

For all those of you who still don't know: Yesterday CDG declared war on GCA. As I write these lines we are chatting with Lucky and the GCA gang and last night we also had a chat with Octavian and co. from CFC. From both of those chats we can make the following observations:

Regarding GCA vs CFC

- CFC reatreated its army from the mountain range and is apparently preparing a counterattack.
- GCA's army is 2 tile from the capital Sheng Ling (how the hell they got there so fast makes me think this was a lie).
- GCA intends to deal a "blow" to CFC and force them to sue for peace. Reminds me of Japan in 1942...
- There is no chance in hell they can re-depoly their army to fight CDG. They are more than 10 turns away from the CDG border.

Regarding GCA vs CDG

- CDG has invaded them with an intial force of 5 immortals and 1 spearman. GCA fears there are more where that came from
- CDG violated a NAP and an informal alliance with GCA. This just shows how trustworthy they really are.


Our Options

1) Invade CDG right now

Pros: we'll most likely hit them while we're prepared. They counted on a NAP to shield themselves from our actions. However, from our chat with GCA it is apparent that CDG also broke a NAP to attack them. Coupled with our own loophole, CDG has no legal or moral right to complain should we swoop in against them.

We could probably take the 2 border cities quite easily. However that really does no good as they're pretty worthless. Takin Elucidia is the key, and we'd need a sizeable force to do so. Still, a quick damaging strike might make CDG back off from totally wiping out GCA if they have the chance to do so.

Cons: We disrupt our very good and very delicate development plan and delay getting Republic. If by any chance we end up in a golden age, it will be rather unfortunate that we spend it in Despotism.

2) Hold off until Republic

Pros: we strike when we are ready, both militarily and economically. We will be able to field a very powerful force and in much greater numbers than CDG would much likely have. Our short-term development plan also is completed giving us an extrordinary production and monetary advantage.

Cons: Should CDG's attack be swift and brutal, it will give them time to consolidate and recover. Thus, our war will much likely be longer and bloodier but still with reasonable hope for victory.


My Proposal

I think we want this war between CDG-GCA but we want it to end in stalemate (same with CFC). The longer they pound at each other with no gain, the more we stand to benefit. We can after all continue with our development plan and whore techs like mad. However, there may come a point that should CDG have an overwhelming advantage over GCA that in the long run, this might very well be an even greater disadvantage (military-wise and geo-strategic-wise) than if we don't do anything at all.

So what I propose it to have a secret "tripwire". Bascially we profess our neutrality to all, bla bla bla, but we make a note to ourselves that there will be a point in which we may take intervention very seriously. I suggest that point be the capture or destruction of Catchopolis and some other major GCA city not including the two border cities. Should this "tripwire" be triggered, then we may seriously consider intervention.

Finally, I also favor sending a very strongly worded statement to CDG saying that despite our neutrality, we did not like the fact that they broke a NAP in this conflict, and that such backstabbing will make most of our team distrust them from now on unless they make some kind of amends. This will either 1) perhaps make them soften the blow or 2) get pissed and get at us immediately after which would totally legitimize our own reasons for war.

As usual, I volunteer to write said letter

-MZ

	04-07-2003 00:27									#2
	Support Apolyton

One question. Had CDG ever mentioned to us before that they had an NAP with GCA?

One more question. Since Lucky says the NAP is registered with Mongoose (the UN) can we verify that with him through private channels?

	04-07-2003 00:27									#3
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

A well thought-out plan with which I agree with. From a very quick and inaccurate appraisal of our situation, I think that we could field maybe six swords and four or five mercs in a few turns. Doing this would significantly affect our development and probably be only sufficient to take two weakly defended cities, as MZ says; certainly not enough to take their capital.

So while it may seem tempting to attack CDG while they are distracted, I don't think it has any advantages at all right now; we won't be depriving them of any resources and we'll be setting our own progress back several turns. The tripwire idea is more appealing but even then, if GCA have the sense to raze their cities then CDG will have gained precisely nothing. Given their lackluster performance at internal development (Trip estimates only 15 or so shields/turn!?) these jokers pose no real threat now or in the future.

I doubt that CDG will fully conquer GCA. Firstly, I think that GCA will eventually be able to rally their troops, although not without some troop and city losses. Secondly, if CDG have any sense at all (perhaps a dangerous assumption) they aren't aiming to completely wipe out GCA - it marks them out as highly treacherous and will take far too much time and resources.

We are fast becoming the real power on our continent and by the time the dust settles from the multiple wars and the other civs realise this, it will likely be too late for them to change anything. Judging from the conflict between them so far, I find it unlikely that they will unite to attack us. I'm sure that GCA would welcome us attacking CDG in the future. All we have to do is to be patient...

	04-07-2003 01:02									#4
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Agreed.

At this moment, let's just sit back and enjoy watching how everybody beats everybody else into pulp. I would never expect something THAT benefical to us could happen. Well...

I would reconsider our "neutrality" only in case CDG took Catchopolis (agreed with MZ here). Taking the two border towns does little good to CDG... unless they are able to secure a backup iron for themselves, that is.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether we should speak to CDG, pointing out the NAP with GCA violation... I would probably not bother...

	04-07-2003 01:19									#5
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I don't feel we should make any statements or announcements or anything else. All we'll do is breed discontent and mistrust, which goes entirely against our neutrality.

CFC has already said that it does not plan on attacking GCA further than capturing Balance of Power. We don't know about CDG. If CDG starts beating on GCA hard, then we can warn them. But we ESPECIALLY do not want to get CDG thinking we might attack them. The whole idea is to appear neutral and get them feeling comfortable. Obviously, the idea of attacking to get a GA during a better form of government never even crossed any other teams' minds (especially CDG), so they won't suspect that is what we're waiting for. CDG will think "hey, Apolyton didn't attack us when we had our backs turned when they had a chance."

If things start looking grim for GCA, then we start sending out warnings. Doing so before then will only make the other teams (especially CDG) worried about what we might do.

	04-07-2003 01:21									#6
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

How long is it until we hit Republic (and then presumably gear up for war)?

	04-07-2003 01:22									#7
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Around 20 turns.

	04-07-2003 01:30									#8
	Get a bigger avatar today!

In that case, I don't think we have much to fear from CDG or CFC. There's only so much damage or growth they can achieve in that amount of time and now that we have the world map, their interior planning does not match up to our standards. While CFC does have some very nice land, they haven't been doing much with it, and this war they're in will keep them occupied for a little while yet.

	04-07-2003 01:37									#9
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Yes, our plans could not have been any better. If CDG destroys GCA it will make it tougher on us, but we can still do our AltSP.

If it comes to a stalemate, then our plan will succeed with minimum effort and we could ride the wave into the rest of GCA. We tell CFC they get the West and we get the East.

Nice to see you here Adrian!

	04-07-2003 01:50									#10
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

well, if only 20 turns till we get Republic then that changes the whole thing. I think we can be neutral during those 20 turns and strike 'em down immediately afterwards. 20 turns will not allow them to reap the benefits from destroying GCA.

	04-07-2003 01:53									#11
	Tired of ads?

Well, at 70% commerce exactly from this point it will be 25 turns, but we'll be building more cities and Hispanica and Tripoli will expand, which will probably shave a few off. Over the course of 20 turns, our GNP will probably grow a pretty good amount.

	04-07-2003 02:23									#12
	Put an end to popups!

Definately wait.

If we go now, we earn the good will of GCA (who would likely be our next victim anyways :P) and we keep CDG from getting much stronger before we go.

Downside we are much weaker starting out, so much so that I suspect that we'd be in far worse shape going now against CDG in current shape, than going in 20 turns against CDG after annexing all of GCA.

If we wait, worst case is CDG wipes out GCA and saves us the trouble. It just means 1 less war to consolidate the whole continent under our rule

	04-07-2003 02:44									#13
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Well if we wait until we get Republic things could go quite good. Lets say if we switch governments and Anarchy lasts 6 turns our NAP with CDG would be over by then or in a few turns. So we wouldnt even violate anything. If we attack now 1. We might have a Golden Age in Despotism 2. We might not be able to take Elucidia. Just my two cents.
*claps*

	04-07-2003 03:10									#14
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

New official MOW thread posted on a similar subject. Check it out.

	04-07-2003 03:45									#15
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither One question. Had CDG ever mentioned to us before that they had an NAP with GCA? One more question. Since Lucky says the NAP is registered with Mongoose (the UN) can we verify that with him through private channels?

Any takers?

	04-07-2003 06:34									#16
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

What do you mean NYE?

	04-07-2003 11:32									#17
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I think we need to look at what is most important to us here. Wasting a GA in Despotism is what CDG is doing. Everything in the AltSp is geared towards two all-important goals - death of CDG and a Republican GA. We have the option here to pursue the first a few 10s of turns early, but would almost definitely waste the second. This I think is unacceptable. Our GA is sacrosanct, and is what will set us aside from all the others, if our AltSP reaches fruition.

I am in broad agreement with vonD and MZ - neutrality ATM, but we get every bit of info from all teams on what is happening every turn. We need to know whether one team could end up enormously strong. I agree with Dom that CFC is the nastiest potential rival we have on this continent (I'll call the continent Bob ), and it would be best if they were crippled/killed by GCA. If CDG managed to take some of GCA, they would be a threat also, but if this possibility starts to increase in likelihood (luck from the RNG for CDG and they approach Catchopolis), we must ensure that GCA uses scorched earth as much as possible. As long as CDG doesn't take all of GCA intact, they are still not a strong enough threat to us in our Republican GA.

We should stay as we are and either warn CDG against breaking treaties if we discover such a NAP with GCA existed (and it's not just GCA propaganda), or just politely tell them that they would find it a lot harder if they attacked their other neighbour in the same way, and suggest they do not.

We need to canvas every team for info on their progress/losses every turn and assess this after every loss. We must be ready to make the hard decision to interfere only if CDG is getting too much of GCA. Remember though that CDG is in their GA either now or will be very soon, and most of it will be useless. Any GCA cities they may acquire will miss most of the benefits of the GA, and those cities will be pretty corrupt as well.

If we find CDG is making too much ground quickly and actually gaining things beyond unimproved land, then we may need to attack. But not as I see it in any other situation.

	04-07-2003 15:46									#18
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Any takers?

I think we would have to have GCA or CDG ask mongoose to foward the treaty to us. mongoose shouldn't just give it to us directly.

So, we ask Kentonio or Lucky or both to ask mongoose to do this, then we can determine who's telling the truth. This means that our diplomats will have to request this from them. We will not accept any materials as "official" directly from either GCA or CDG concerning their treaty; we need it directly from mongoose.

Togas, can you make this happen? Thanks.

	04-07-2003 19:55									#19
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Is it really that important to us whether CDG did violate a treaty or not?

We are planning to make them dead either way. We aren't likely to speed up that process either way. I just don't see how it will make one iota of difference in our official response to this.

On the downside, pushing to find out does two things:
It makes CDG more paranoid, something we should avoid for now.
It satisfies our curosity.

It would surely be better to just tell both teams we believe their side of the story (double talk can't be that hard) But we can't /won't get involved anyways due to our own NAP.

EDIT:

Well I can see how it will be important to us IF we decide to attack them early. If we can prove they broke a NAP it should lessen the impact of us breaking ours. But I still think we should hold off on pushing that point until it looks like we will need to attack them earlier than the end of our NAP.

Last edited by wervdon on 04-07-2003 at 20:05

	05-07-2003 00:18									#20
	Remove this text

I'm with wervdon on this one.

I'll go ahead and ask GC to ask Mongoose to send us the treaty if you really want me to, but us proving one side right means proving one side wrong, and should we PROVE that CDG was right (as Kentonio strongly suggests) in their technicality about not breaking the treaty, is discredits and distracts us from our our actual mission and agenda. SO WHAT if they did or didn't break it? We're not even considering it in our decision. It is a non-factor as far as we are concerned. Sure, if they did break it we could throw it out as a Casus Belli and use it in our propoganda, however that would get them into argument mode trying to prove us wrong and trying to prove to the international community that our "reason" for going to war was bullsh*t.

Let's skip all that. Let's just flat out tell them the truth. No excuses, no rhetoric, no propoganda (ok, maybe just a little.... ) but when we make our attack let's not act moralistic about it ... let's not pretend that we're the good guy and that they're the bad guy. Let's just say flat out that we want to be successful at this game and a part of that success is growing our empire through conquest. We believed this was an appropriate time to make a move on CDG and we:

1) Waited until our NAP was over to strike.
or
2) Voided our NAP due to (loophole) to strike.

We know that CDG has excellent military units (Immortals) and excellent military staff and we look forward to the challange of meeting them on the field of battle.

May the best team win. Etc etc.

--Togas

	05-07-2003 01:16									#21
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

I still want to ask both teams for them to ask mongoose to forward the treaties to us. We can reserve judgment on the issue if we lie by saying that the treaties were not clear or were ambiguous; hell, it might not even be a lie!

Our NAP with CDG became voidable, by us, legally, when they attacked GCA. We already have our loophole, we don't need another. But knowing ahead of time what exactly transpired between GCA and CDG can help us make some decisions later if things happen to not go our way.

We attack later, CDG, on the premise that we felt they would get too strong by taking over some of GCA's land. And we can also bring up the fact that they lied to us about the existence of GCA in the first place and that they threatenned us with war if we didn't keep WBigFree from moving south into unclaimed territrory, which was his right to do since no border was agreed upon. We have plenty of reasons to declare war on CDG.

	05-07-2003 04:21									#22
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Hmmm. We really don't want to ask CDG about this. I for one am curious as to who is telling the truth, but if we stick with AltSp, we will not be attacking prior to the NAP expiring anyway, in which case it is not necessary to use as a pretext.

I think wervdon and Togas have a point that there are some potential downsides to making the enquiry. If we really want what Mongoose has on file, I think an indirect approach would be best. Get into a chat with Lucky and fret about the conflicting stories and it being difficult to sort things out. Prompt him into the offer of proof, and steer him into making the request to Mongoose because he wants to, not because we asked him to. Assuming of course that he sticks to his story and doesn't back off the claim. Nothing lost by that approach, unless Mongoose feels that he must inform CDG of the transaction.

	05-07-2003 10:20									#23
	Get a bigger avatar today!

yep, wervdon and Togas are right. We really don't need no stinkin' excuse confirmed. Its not going to change anything either. Self-righteousness won't help either CDG or GCA as we eventually have plans on taking out both of them so it really doesn't matter who's right or who's wrong.

	05-07-2003 12:36									#24
	Full PM-box? Change here!

I agree with Togas & wervdon, too; reasons mentioned by others in recent posts. MZ's idea (indirect approach) sounds good... it's worth trying, I'd say.

	05-07-2003 19:59									#25
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

I really want to know who is lying too, but I don't see how it benefits us to know. I do see clearly how it will make CDG paranoid if we know either that they lied, or they think we are trying to prove they lied even if they didn't.

I wouldn't be too surprised though if we eventually get proof without having to ask for it though assuming GCA is telling the truth. All we really have to do in that case is tell them next time they request help something like this:
"Sorry Lucky, we are under a NAP with both you and CDG, both of which were signed before the wars broke out." (He doesn't need to know how much before :P)

"We take your allegation that CDG violated a NAP very serious for obvious reasons, but they deny such a deal existed and its your word against theirs."

At that point if he's telling the truth, he's likely to get the idea on his own to have the UN step in and send us a copy.

Only problem, he still goes and tells CDG that "'Poly is onto its lies and its a matter of time" and such. We still end up making CDG more inclined to watch its back, which is not what we want to do.