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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:29
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Well, the entire continent is at war right now, excepting us. However, if things change dramatically (e.g. CDG sweeping through GCA in 5 turns) then we will have to intevene. While it's ideal if everyone slugs each other to death, if someone scores a massive victory, then we'll be in trouble.
First, I'll give my predictions on how the war will go. Then, I will present the possible outcomes. Third and finally, I will present the MOW plan for dealing with each of these outcomes.
I. Prediction
Currently, GCA has 4 Swordsmen and 1 Spearman 2 tiles from the CFC capital. CFC is concerned, but confident they can defeat this army with the Horsemen and Archers they have in their capital now. CDG has 5 Immortals and 1 Spearman adjacent to the GCA city of Algalord, after capturing a GCA Worker. CDG will likely capture the city, then move on to the GCA capital.
It is most likely that CFC will manage to destroy the GCA stack approaching Shen Ling with heavy losses. CFC's main army will probably be weakened a great deal, and it will be some time before they can muster a new army and get it to attack Balance of Power. Most likely 15 turns.
CDG will capture Algalord, then head down towards Catchopolis. By then, however, GCA will probably have at least 4 Spearmen there, in addition to a couple Archers or Swordsmen. They will probably take down a few CDG units in the process, and CDG will be unable to capture the GCA capital before its army is ultimately destroyed, with heavy losses to both sides.
At that point, everyone will need to rebuild their armies. CDG with a golden age will have a 10 SPT city and two 5 SPT cities, which will allow them to build a few Immortals after their initial stack is destroyed. GCA will have a slightly more difficult time, with only Catchopolis and Balance of Power as their only good production centers after the capture/destruction of Algalord. CDG and GCA will fight another few battles, mostly inconclusive. 15 turns from now CFC will arrive at Balance of Power, and a large battle will be fought there, most likely ending in the capture of the city. At that point, hopefully CFC will stop their advance, and the war between CFC and GCA will end. If not, then its likely that GCA will be destroyed eventually. However, at about 20 turns, we come into the picture. It's likely CDG and GCA will still be slugging it out unless they make peace. Once we enter the fray, CDG will crumple fairly quickly (depending on how we attack), and from that point on we can dictate whatever fate we want upon either GCA or CFC.
We will call this Outcome X, which is the outcome we should all hope for. Everyone ends up weakened, while we will have a massive army, Republic and our golden age.
II. Possible Alternative Outcomes
A. Possible Outcome A is that GCA's stack is successful in capturing the CFC capital. GCA will probably be very weakened after a big battle, and CFC will be crippled unless they recapture the city. However, both sides will be ineffective after that point on that front due to loss of units/cities.
B. Possible Outcome B is that CDG routs GCA's army, captures its capital and drives southwards. With only 5 attacking units, it's likely that CDG will eventually lose steam, but GCA will be crippled just as CFC would be. CDG will slowly but probably eventually crush GCA with its Immortals.
C. Possible Outcome C is that GCA is crushed on all fronts quickly and easily, and within 15 turns is pretty much gone from the map. In this case things get interesting for us, especially if CDG captures a number of cities intact and keeps its army healthy.
D. Possible Outcome D is that GCA routs both CFC (possible) and CDG quickly (unlikely). CFC ends up crippled, CDG's stack is eliminated, GCA ultimately mounts an offensive on CDG leading to outcome X (where X is unknown  ).
III. Our Response
Ultimately, all that matters is how things affect us. In the end, we will answer the call of manifest destiny, crushing all of our neighbors and making this continent ours in its entirety. However, how the stage is set for our ascendence makes things interesting.
Most of these outcomes work in our favor no matter what. At least 1, possibly all 3 of our neighbors ends up greatly weakened, and we might be able to sweep away 2 entire civs in as little as 20 turns if our army keeps its initial strength and has some luck.
In Outcome X, everyone ends up slugging it out and greatly weakened. In this case, we probably take out CDG, and then GCA within 20 or 30 turns. Our involvement in this continental war in this case would not develop until 20 turns and our acquisition of and change to Republic.
In Outcome A, CFC is gravely weakened in addition to CDG and GCA slugging it out. If this happens, then it's like Outcome X plus a special present, as long as CDG and GCA weaken each other sufficiently. As in X, our response is not necessary until we get to Republic.
In Outcome B, we would probably have to attack CDG prematurely. If CDG meets with too much success in attacking GCA (no matter what happens with GCA-CFC), then they will actually be STRONGER instead of weaker when we attack them. More and bigger cities, and more and more experienced units. While it's unlikely (but possible) that CDG sweeps GCA from existence quickly and easily, we need to keep an eye out for this.
The same goes for Outcome C as with Outcome B. If CDG is too successful, then we need to interevene.
With Outcome D, then things get somewhat interesting. We will be able to destroy crippled CDG quite easily (perhaps making a treaty with GCA to divide them). That is done easily enough. But the true test is to destroy GCA at that point, since they will have their good land in addition to the good land of CDG's south. Attacking GCA will be our major concern at that point, but it will likely be 25-30+ turns from now.
So the only case we have to be worried about is if CDG meets with amazing luck and success against GCA. Otherwise, we can watch and laugh as everyone else beats each others heads to a pulp while we prepare for our rise to victory.
Now then, what do we do if CDG has a lot of success?
Since we'll need to go to war earlier, then it will be pointless to research Republic at full steam. We will have to throw in our full weight and crush CDG, which will include the usage of NMs... meaning our GA, meaning that getting Republic sooner won't matter much. Simple as that. We gain more from preventing CDG from turning into a superpower than we lose from "wasting" our GA.
Keep in mind, I'm not talking if CDG takes Algalord and Catchopolis. I'm talking if CDG takes Algalord and Catchopolis with very few losses and keeps on moving. This is unlikely, but if it happens in 10 or so turns then we might have some trouble since CDG will have time to reposition its forces near us again.
In the event that we have to get involved, we will immediately upgrade 3 of our vet Warriors to Swordsmen. The majority of our NMs will move towards Mingapulco to assist our Swordsman stack in moving south. We will have to turn down science in order to help ugrade more units. With 20 GPT we can have 8 Swordsmen and 5 NMs ready to head south in 5 turns from "go."
Once this stack is prepared, we will head south and capture Cuid de Alcohol. It provides 5 GPT for CDG, and is the main reason that they can compete with us economically. Its loss will cut off Possumopolis (which we will isolate and later destroy with other forces outside of our main stack along with new Swordsmen), and provide us a clear road to Elucidium, which is our ultimate goal. With CDG's main army in the south (since they'll still be driving southwards with their main, mostly intact army), we should not have too much trouble in capturing Elucidium with 14 units, though we may suffer 5 or so casulaties if they have enough units in the vacinity.
With Elucidium captured, we will have basically won, but the conflict won't be over yet. With Possumopolis captured, we can use our main stack + reinforcements to capture Zarigueya and Goatcity. CDG's armies will eventually be destroyed in the south (how long can 6 units last?), and we will have achieved ultimate victory. Our forces will sweep south and take care of all the GCA land captured by CDG. At that point, we can easily crush a crippled GCA as well.
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wervdon
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Sounds like a great strategy to me. I can't think of even one aspect of that plan which doesnt sound plausible, of course situations can rapidly change with this much uncertainety in the air.
Diplomatically though in the event that we have to attack CDG early and all 3 wars are still going, I think we might should consider not immediately taking on GCA. Our relationship with CFC will likely detoriate greatly as a result of our taking out their alliance partner, while our relations with GCA will boost. If we formalize a fast NAP/border with GCA in that situation, they are likely to turn their back to us and concentrate on CFC, thus repeating this situation all over again: fighting each other while we go increasingly strong.
That leaves us free to consolidate our gains and do one of two things after a short break:
1a) Colonize the lands north of CFC if we didnt capture them from CDG and CFC hasn't taken them. Consolidate those, and rex the heck out of them as well.
1b) If CFC has settled them, then we maybe better off joining GCA in an alliance against CFC and taking them anyways.
It all depends on the situation though. If the GCA/CFC war is over when we attack CDG, then we are probally better off taking out GCA next.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:29
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And now, for the #s of the RMW:
We will consider turn 78 as "Turn 0" from which all numbers shall be generated. Thus, turn 1 shall be turn 79 in the game, turn 2 is turn 80, etc. All numbers represent the number of units we will have in Mingapulco on that turn.
code:
Turn 0 1 5 10 15
Swordsmen 3 5 8 13 20
NMs 3 6 6 6 6
Warriors 3 4 3 2 1
Total 9 15 17 22 27
Note: I built Barracks in Incensity, Apolyton and Bananatopia before starting on Swordsmen. Without the Barracks, we could get ~4 or so Swordsmen more by turn 5. But because of the Barracks, sixteen of the total twenty Swordsmen in Mingapulco were veterans.
I was going to test to see what we could do with a GA from turn 0, but for some reason the game won't acknowledge the GA (still counts Apolyton as 7 SPT instead of 12... go figure). So I won't test that because making it work would take another hour to do.
Anyways, my comments about this simulation:
As you can see, the biggest buildup of forces occurs within the first couple turns, as we're able to draw upon our gold stockpile to upgrade 3 quick Swordsmen, and bring in forces from all corners of the empire. After that point, we're so burdened by unit support costs that it was terribly hard to get enough gold to upgrade any more Swordsmen, but after the first 3-5 Swordsmen we didn't really have any good Warriors to upgrade anyways.
We have a lot of "average" cities, which means that our buildup is pretty slow and painful. 5/6 turn Swordsmen builds aren't fun to watch while at war. Thus, the main thing for us to keep in mind is that our initial stack will be fairly strong to begin with, but after that reinforcements will slow down a great deal due to our low shield #s.
However, if we consider GA numbers, then things change entirely. We should be able to get Apolyton, Bananatopia and Mingapulco over 10 SPT at size 4, Incensity to 10 SPT with 2 mined hills and Tripoli to 8 SPT (though probably at least 3 of those will be lost to waste). Thus, the speed with which we can produce units is nearly doubled in every city.
Of course, we don't REALLY want a despotic GA. 
"Turn 0" save located here (note, this save is an EXACT replica of our current situation, excepting some name mistakes and such which I'm too lazy to go and fix ). Also note that this save file is AFTER I did some of the turn 0 moves to prepare for the Mingapulco buildup (like moving units, upgrading, etc.).
Last edited by Trip on 04-07-2003 at 08:19
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Dominae
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If you look at the big picture, I think it's pretty obvious that GCA is going down in a major way (barring some weird combat results). They're attacking a relatively strong Industrious and Militaristic civ with nothing close to overwhelming force, and they're getting attacked from behind by Immortals. Unless a peace treaty is signed soon, we're not going to see a War Elephant in this game.
Our best strategy is to keep GCA alive as long as possible, so that they can fight a war against CFC for us. And the best/only way to do this is attack CDG ASAP. By attacking them we force them to go on the defensive, and therefore GCA gets some breathing room to fight CFC. We can then enter a "Cold War", where we'll end up victorious because we've been planning for the super Republic-switch. Who knows, maybe our GA will never be triggered in our initial skirmish with CDG.
I would love to wait 20 turns to get The Republic and get into a non-Despotic GA. But that might well be too long; CFC and CDG could humble GCA in that timeframe.
Dominae
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:29
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Hold it there, my Granary-loving friend. Do not let the grand strategic view of things supercede the lower-level, more significant strategic events.
Yes, GCA faces a militaristic-industrious civ with good land. Yes GCA faces a defensive war against Immortals. But I believe this war will be a stalemate, at least until we can intervene at the time of our choosing (i.e. under Republic). War in Civ 3 is a slow and messy business unless you have great luck (ala ND attacking Lux) or pull off a strategic masterpiece (ala GS attacking Vox). Without a quick war you get a slug-fest stalemate where attacking armies with less than awe-inspiring numbers suffer horribly from attrition, and often are completely annihilated before achieving anything. Vox was confident of victory. In the end, they never even took one city with their much-feared massive army of Immortals. Strategy helped with that, but offensive attrition also played a huge factor. But I won't speak in broad terms about things, but be specific:
First, the war in the west.
Right now GCA is on the offensive, and until its stack there is destroyed or mauled, they will continue to be on the offensive. Thus, CFC poses no direct threat to GCA. Yet. If GCA's assault on the CFC capital completely fails in 2 turns, then it will be at least 8-10 turns between Shen Ling and Balance of Power at full speed, and that's assuming CFC takes no losses, and instantly musters an army which is capable of capturing the city at all. It's more likely that it will take CFC at least 3 or 4 turns to recover from a fight in its lands, even if the GCA army is completely destroyed. Even then, they won't have more than 2 or 3 Horsemen since they just finished the tech. They won't capture Balance of Power with 3 Horsemen. It will be at least 12-15 turns before CFC can even think about launching a good assault on Balance of Power. In 15 turns, it wouldn't surprise me to see GCA with 6 Spearmen and Walls in that city. It takes a lot of units to take down six units with a defense of 4 head-on. And that doesn't even count the pot-shots which GCA will be able to take at the CFC army as it approaches Balance of Power. With 4 Swordsmen, about half the strength of the army can be depleted even if all 4 Swords are lost. Unless CFC defeats the GCA army with no losses and snaps its fingers together creating 8 Horsemen out of nothing, the absolute fastest they can reach Balance of Power is 10 turns. And that's with the handful of Archers and Horsemen they have now - what they might lose to GCA.
Now, for the war in the north.
This is really where the attrition is a factor. CDG is attacking with 5 Immortals and 1 Spearman. Last turn they entered GCA territory and captured a Worker. So they should capture a city this turn, right? But they didn't. Who knows why. Even 2 Spearmen in a city should have been little more than a speed bump to 5 Immortals. Either CDG is completely incompetant on the offensive (and perhaps the defensive), or things are not moving as "blitzkrieg-like" as the worst-case scenario would require. Even if CDG takes out the first GCA city next turn, they have another 4-5 turns to get to Catchopolis.
Also keep in mind that right now GCA is the only civ on our continent with a military that matches our own. CDG's Immortals are heavily weighted by the military advisor, but they're still weak compared to us. Thus they probably only have a few of them. Say, 5. Moreover, GCA probably has a very large army. They only have 5 units over near CFC, which leaves the vast majority of their army at home to deal with CDG's 6 units for the next 12 or so turns while their other army messes around with CFC. All it takes is one Swordsmen to take out 17% of CDG's forces. Just 3 Swordsmen destroys 50% and makes the CDG stack useless. Then guess who's on the offensive? CDG's army is stretched so thin that a few turns ago we saw Possumopolis undefended. Would we ever leave a city undefended on a border like that unless we needed every unit we had? And CDG only has 6 units down there. CDG can almost match us commerce-wise. They only have 1/3 of our MFG. Once their army is destroyed they won't be able to rebuild it.
So things don't look so grim for GCA after all. If they play their cards right and CFC and CDG don't tap into some awesome luck, I'd actually say they had the upper hand for the next 15 turns after slowing down CDG. 15 turns is just enough time for us to get into gear. Once we get moving, CDG is doomed and GCA can then its full force into dealing with CFC. Once we attack nothing else matters, because we will be invincible with Republic + GA.
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MrWhereItsAt
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New Year's Resolution: 2005 is the year of Where It's At - come get some.
Nov 2001
time: 17:29
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Ah, it looks so much nicer and easier to be the Minister of War when you are assuming that we attack about now. 
Compelling information there, Tripster.
What d'you reckon our chances are of assmebling a stack WITHOUT NMs at danger of being attacked, and not spending our GA?
If they are really as threadbare as you suggest may be true here, then we could march a stack fo Swords up to their first few cities, whether any pathetic counterattacke they may summon and not even need the NMs in harm's way until we get a fair few turns towards Elucidia. In fact, they may well be sending all new troops down to GCA as reinforcements, especially if they have even an inkling of how vulnerable that stack is. If they are trusting us, then we could possibly even ignore anything they build in their GA.
The other side is, of course, they have depleted their home attackers in the knowledge they could use the GA to build some Immortals to stay at home within a few turns.
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Dominae
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
Hold it there, my Granary-loving friend. Do not let the grand strategic view of things supercede the lower-level, more significant strategic events.
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Of course you're going to deny this, but please try not to sound too condenscending right at the beginning of your post (toward the end is okay  ).
I think it's rather funny (a wonderful reversal) to suggest that we not let the big picture blind us to the nitty-gritty details. If there's anything we need to think about now it's the big picture, that is, our diplomatic role on this continent.
I'm not going to address the many points you've made, because I just put many of them under the umbrella category of "assumptions".
(For instance, just because GCA's army is strong now does not mean they have the forces to hold their own for another 20 turns, especially when facing two Industrious civs, one that's Militaristic and one that has Immortals. In other words, do not make arguments based on a snapshot of time, because things could get very ugly for GCA very fast. Remember Gathering Storm's poor-looking defense in the face of stacks upon stacks of Immortals? Yup, not even omniscient Trip predicted that one. But I digress.)
What I think you and many here are missing is my point, which is this: anything that puts CFC in better position indirectly puts us in a worse one, because CFC will win the land/resources game. Let's do a timeline of events:
1. GCA attacks CFC, and CFC more or less repels the assault.
2. CDG attacks GCA, and GCA more or less repels the assault.
3. Now, GCA's forces are weakened enough that they either ask for peace in the face of superior traits/UUs/whatever. CFC gladly accepts, as they flat out win the waiting game.
4. We move in and strike at CDG, perhaps taking them out.
5. Here, either CFC runs over GCA a little while later, or they sign an alliance against us, because we're clearly the bad guys now.
We want CFC to fight GCA as long as possible. This is the "pulling the strings" we had mentioned earlier. One way of pulling the strings is ensuring that CDG does not lend a significant hand in that war right now. I'm fully aware that CDG is open to us anytime. That's not really the problem. The problem is that when the dust settles, we'll still be left with a lot of jungle, and CFC will be left with good lands to exploit. Again, we must ensure that CFC loses the most to attrition of all of us.
IMO, taking out CDG and pulling the strings behind the CFC/GCA war have equal priority for us. CDG is but a steeping stone to the rest of the continent, so let's not plan as though it's our crowning achievement.
Dominae
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:29
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quote:
Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt
Ah, it looks so much nicer and easier to be the Minister of War when you are assuming that we attack about now.
Compelling information there, Tripster.
What d'you reckon our chances are of assmebling a stack WITHOUT NMs at danger of being attacked, and not spending our GA?
If they are really as threadbare as you suggest may be true here, then we could march a stack fo Swords up to their first few cities, whether any pathetic counterattacke they may summon and not even need the NMs in harm's way until we get a fair few turns towards Elucidia. In fact, they may well be sending all new troops down to GCA as reinforcements, especially if they have even an inkling of how vulnerable that stack is. If they are trusting us, then we could possibly even ignore anything they build in their GA.
The other side is, of course, they have depleted their home attackers in the knowledge they could use the GA to build some Immortals to stay at home within a few turns. |
As you can see, we can have 8 Swordsmen ready in 5 turns. That number would probably be 12, with about half or 2/3 of them regulars if we wanted. With 12 Swordsmen we could probably crippple them pretty handily.
But having so few forces to work with is pretty harsh. Also, it would delay Republic a great deal.
I'll let others mull over the pros-and-cons of attacking soon VS. later.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:29
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quote:
Originally posted by Dominae
Of course you're going to deny this, but please try not to sound too condenscending right at the beginning of your post (toward the end is okay ). |
When people believe what they say, they tend to disagree with the opposing viewpoint. My apologies.
quote:
I think it's rather funny (a wonderful reversal) to suggest that we not let the big picture blind us to the nitty-gritty details. If there's anything we need to think about now it's the big picture, that is, our diplomatic role on this continent. |
In the end, it's the details that matter. If GCA is at war with 5 civs, and wins crushing victories one after another and subsequently destroys them all, it doesn't matter that they were facing 5 enemies, what matters is that they crushed them.
That having been said, yes, GCA faces a tough situation. They might be destroyed before we can throw our hand into the conflict, or they could capture the CFC capital and muster an army to crush CDG. We don't know enough of the "lower" details to know for sure, but we do know GCA is the only one with an army the same size as us, and the only other team anywhere near us with MFG (pre CDG GA).
quote:
I'm not going to address the many points you've made, because I just put many of them under the umbrella category of "assumptions". |
And you're assuming that GCA will be destroyed quickly and we should attack. Either you address and act upon assumptions or you don't, you can't have it both ways.
quote:
(For instance, just because GCA's army is strong now does not mean they have the forces to hold their own for another 20 turns, especially when facing two Industrious civs, one that's Militaristic and one that has Immortals. In other words, do not make arguments based on a snapshot of time, because things could get very ugly for GCA very fast. Remember Gathering Storm's poor-looking defense in the face of stacks upon stacks of Immortals? Yup, not even omniscient Trip predicted that one. But I digress.) |
The omniscient Trip realized that Vox would have to hit hard and fast while GS was weak, but realized that once Vox slowed down they were doomed. Some interesting strategic choices helped to hasten the end result. Also, I would not compare the level of internal development of GS to CDG or CFC. GS was probably much more developed and powerful than either of those countries will be until they hit AD, maybe longer. GS won because of its production. GCA has greater production than CFC and the same as CDG with their GA.
Anyways (). CDG does not have the number of good cities it will need to sustain a long war. GCA has more good cities (unless CDG manages to take a few of them out) for production than CDG. CDG actually has a lower MFG under GA than I predicted with the sim, since I was working 2 hill tiles in Zarigueya and Goatcity, which I suspect they aren't doing in favor of commerce or food. They can reach 10 SPT in Elicidium, but that's about it. It will take a long time for CFC to bring its advantage to bare against GCA. Like I said, it's physically impossible for CFC to reach Balance of Power before 10 turns, and that's only with what they have.
quote:
What I think you and many here are missing is my point, which is this: anything that puts CFC in better position indirectly puts us in a worse one, because CFC will win the land/resources game. Let's do a timeline of events:
1. GCA attacks CFC, and CFC more or less repels the assault.
2. CDG attacks GCA, and GCA more or less repels the assault.
3. Now, GCA's forces are weakened enough that they either ask for peace in the face of superior traits/UUs/whatever. CFC gladly accepts, as they flat out win the waiting game.
4. We move in and strike at CDG, perhaps taking them out.
5. Here, either CFC runs over GCA a little while later, or they sign an alliance against us, because we're clearly the bad guys now. |
I thought we weren't addressing the "assumption umbrella" still?
quote:
We want CFC to fight GCA as long as possible. This is the "pulling the strings" we had mentioned earlier. One way of pulling the strings is ensuring that CDG does not lend a significant hand in that war right now. I'm fully aware that CDG is open to us anytime. That's not really the problem. The problem is that when the dust settles, we'll still be left with a lot of jungle, and CFC will be left with good lands to exploit. Again, we must ensure that CFC loses the most to attrition of all of us. |
You probably weren't around at the time, but in many of the chats we had with CFC, the CFC representatives called most of their team "hawks" who refused to give up their measly border city in exchange for peace. It's very unlikely they'll just make peace to settle into the respite they need to get much stronger. If you're faced with 4 Swordsmen and 1 Spearman next to your nearly undefended city from a team who is demanding you disband the city what do you do? Do you suck up your pride, disband the city and cut your losses, or fight a war which will only weaken you, losing a city which you have no chance of keeping anyways.
CFC does not seem as keen as we at first feared. Despite being a "big site," they're showing some overtly ameteurish qualities.
quote:
IMO, taking out CDG and pulling the strings behind the CFC/GCA war have equal priority for us. CDG is but a steeping stone to the rest of the continent, so let's not plan as though it's our crowning achievement. |
Until you take the last city, every civ is a threat. Despite our immense micromanagement and expert planning and execution of our plans, there are 2 teams out there with immense economies. CDG is equal to us while under their GA. GCA and CFC have good land. Until our stack starts moving CDG is just as strong as us, sadly.
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Dominae
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quote:
Originally posted by zeit
We should also add the following piece of intelligence to the debate:
CDG mentioned their not fighting for the total conquest of CGA- only to weaken them and strengthen themselves in comparison.
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This is definitely something to keep in mind. If CDG plays "smart" and does not overextend into GCA lands, we could be facing a few more Immortals than we would like. Although their GA will largely be wasted, it will not be insignificant that we will be attacking them as their GA ends while ours is just beginning (in other words, they will be at the peak of their readiness, while we'll be only full of potential...but, oh! what potential).
Dominae
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:29
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quote:
Originally posted by Dominae
Trip, here is my "assumption":
Unless CFC keeps fighting, they're going to grow into the superpower on our continent.
Let me know if you disagree or not. Your current plan to wait to attack seems CDG makes me think you're not concerned about this. On the other hand, my firm belief is that while CFC is on the numerous side of a 2 on 1 (plus all those other factors I've mentioned already), they'll not be breathing too hard, and I think this is a major "big-picture" concern for the future. We need CFC to remain "weak". |
Asking me to check something that can be checked with numbers is a bad idea. Well, I did some research, and no, I don't see them becoming a "superpower" on this continent. They certainly have more land than any of us, but me being the analysis guy, I've done some tests.
First chart:
Civ is the civ on our continent for which the stats apply. Total is the total # of tiles. GoodNow is the number of good, usable tiles available to each civ now (tiles with 2+ food now). Food is the total number of tiles which will be able to produce 2+ food eventually, after chopping jungle, forest, irrigating plains, etc. Shields is the total number of tiles which are used for shields (hills, mountains).
I've put the grassland between CFC and GCA into a seperate category "NML" (no-man's-land) since we can't yet be sure who will control that area later.
code:
Civ Total GoodNow Food Shield
Apolyton 138 18 96 32
CDG 111 12 68 39
GCA 92 29 63 24
CFC 180 24 107 65
"NML" 28 28 22 0
In the second chart, the first column is the civ, the second (BG+) is the number of tiles which are either bonus grassland or other form of bonus food resource (cattle, wheat, game on forest), third column (G) is # of regular grassland tiles, 4th column (P) is the number of plains, 5th column (GF) is the number of forest on grassland tiles, 6th column (PF) is the number of forest on plains, 7th column (H) is the number of hills, 8th column (M) is mountains, 9th column (J) is jungle, and the 10th column is desert (D). I would have spelled it all out, but when I did that the chart got all messed up.
code:
Civ BG+ G P GF PF H M J D
Apolyton 8 10 13 9 3 24 8 53 10
CDG 4 8 4 7 0 19 20 45 4
GCA 9 20 17 16 1 11 13 0 5
CFC 15 9 32 19 10 37 28 16 14
"NML" 10 12 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
And finally a chart comparing the ultimate power of CFC and Apolyton. Ttl is the total number of tiles. LTF is the long term food-producing tiles available. LTS is the long term shield-producing tiles available. The next two columns are mid-term stats. Last two columns are short-term stats.
code:
Civ Ttl LTF LTS MTF MTS STF STS
Apolyton + CDG 249 164 71 97 45 30 18
Greater CFC 208 129 65 78 52 26 38
Short-term we are about the same strength after we crush CDG and CFC recovers from the war with GCA. As we both move forward we acquire an edge on CFC land-wise, and clearly the progress which both teams have shown proves that we have a decisive edge over CFC development-wise.
So, in the end, no, I don't fear CFC.
quote:
I apologize for my combatative tone in my previous post. As apparently the only dissenting voice on this issue, I feel it's my responsibility to make myself heard any way possible. Threads full of "Oh, Trip, your ideas are godlike" will get our team nowhere.
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Says who, you?
Last edited by Trip on 05-07-2003 at 07:03
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04-07-2003 03:09
Glad you're on our side.
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