06-07-2003 02:38									#1
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I've got my little spreadsheet that tells me how many people we're in contact with have a tech back up and running

At the moment, the only techs we can tell that about are Engineering, Printing Press, Chivalry, and Education.

From what I can tell, only Chivalry is held by anyone and it is currently held by either 1 empire (I assume Glory of War).

Given that Glory of War just went from "weak" to "average" in strength with us and they were the ones researching Chivalry (and no doubt now have it), I would think this means that they are building Riders. Since they also likely still have around a healthy force of horsemen that they built during the Lux/ND war, they'll probably want to spend any money they have on upgrading their force of horsemen to riders.

I'd bet that GoW can probably field a rather sizable force of riders in a pretty short time, depending mostly on how much money they have in the bank and/or how much money they can get off of the rest of us in return for Chivalry.

The other issue is how fast Glory of War can build additional Riders if they just recently got the advance. Assuming they put most of their cities on building riders, how long and how large of a force do you think they would amass?

Finally, if they should actually amass such a force, where do you think they would send it? Assuming no fleet, ND seems the best option, but we are another potential and if they build a fleet as well (though that would take a good bit longer I'd guess), Gathering Storm and Legoland are also options.

Thoughts?

	06-07-2003 02:41									#2
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FYI: I'm going to be watching the costs of the techs in the future to see if the prices indicate that additional people own given techs we can research.

	06-07-2003 02:43									#3
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The most logical target is ND, however we cannot assume that.

I would LOVE to see Lego or GS as targets, but I can't think of any reason why GoW would do so, nor do I believe they have a large enough navy to launch such an invasion. 2 of their ships are off our east coast watching the sealanes, and since Chiv was aquired last turn, both of these ships don't have invasion forces and unless they bring them back, leaves GoW with 2 less ships for naval warfare.

GoW may do what Vox did ... exploit their one big window to attack their neighbor.

Should they do so, we'd join in, however, we'd have to be extremely careful about it ... GS could get wise and intercede to keep us and GoW from becoming too powerful.

We need to stay friendly and keep talking with Gow as much as possible these next 10-20 turns.

--Togas

	06-07-2003 02:50									#4
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Well, regardless, I think this should mean a call for building more military units... A LOT more miltary units. Like a healthy high stack of medieval infantry (since they're cheaper, just as effective on attack, and we don't have Chivalry) along with pikemen.

I guess we can go ahead and finish the cities we wanted to finish, but after that, we really need more units to kick ass if the situation calls for it.

	06-07-2003 05:12									#5
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You can count on me for military. About diplomacy: we have to remain froiendly with both GoW and GS: to eventually cooperate with GoW, but to prevent GS from intervening.
I hope that GS will fall back to their original attitude of isolationism so that they wont bother with the Bobian politics.

Legoland wont be a problem, They are still very isolationist. They have no interest in international politics, though I wonder how they will react when a nation is about to become bigger than they are. Then they are forced to leave the isolationist path and step in the international arena.

Diomingo Cian,

Royal ambassador to Legoland.

	06-07-2003 05:19									#6
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I'm pretty sure Legoland is very content with REXing and building improvements for now.... and as long as everone else leaves them to do that in peace on their continent, it won't MATTER if one power on Bob becomes more powerful than the other 2.

For Legoland, they figure as long as they can continue to expand on their own continent and out-compete us in sheer size based upon REX, they have the game made.

Militarily, Legoland is likely only to be concerned if someone develops a navy to go with an army. Even then, they're more likely to build up defensive capability than to build up their own fleet and attempt to directly intervene on Bob. The most they'll do in any Bobian conflict is donate money and give away techs.

EDIT: Speaking of which... if a Bobian conflict starts, we should see if Legoland would be willing to help us fund our war effort, since we're their best friends on Bob and not the ones trying to conquer the continent like GoW

	06-07-2003 23:09									#7
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The big question for me is: who is supplying the iron that GoW is using to do the upgrades?

It could only be GS or ND. If it is GS, it might be safe to assume that it was a sale motivated purely by profit on the part of GS (and no alterior motives to speak of). It seems suspicious, though, that they might have forgiven GoW so quickly after they landed troops on GS soil during the Vox campaign. Of course, there is certain no love lost between GS and ourselves after the fallout of their Public Announcement thread, and that could motivate them to keep GoW well supplied.

If it is ND doing the selling, however, I think all bets are off The only motivation I can see for them to supply such a volatile neighbor as GoW with the only units that could contest ND's Ansars on this continent and in the current era would be because of a conspiracy to use together. GoW and ND could easily have a verbal agreement to grant right of passage and, thereby, keep any plot they might be cooking up from showing up on our foreign advisor screen.

	07-07-2003 00:08									#8
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It's possible that ND is the suplier of iron and thus GoW and ND have an alliance to take down Role Play or perhaps build fleets and take down GS or Legoland (MUCH less likely since they have no fleets to speak of at the moment).

However, GoW would have a difficult time in a post-war situation if they helped conquer pieces of Spain that are on the far side of ND territory, hopelessly corrupt, and they have to garrison. It leaves GoW helplessly open to having anything they've gained from the war taken by ND and ND can use Ansar Warriors to counter Riders on the northern front and become the ruler of both current ND and current Spanish territory.

GoW might certainly like to conquer someone for the sake of it, but the long-term prospects just aren't worth it unless GoW is taking the iron from ND and then cruelly backstabbing ND with the iron ND supplied.

So I seem to think that GS is the one supplying the iron if those are the two options. GS has a substantial interest in seeing a conflict on Bob and giving GoW iron works for that as long as GoW doesn't build a fleet. That may even be part of the agreement if one exists.

If the supplier is GS, then that's not good for us. As GoW could be planning to attack ND, which means GS would then be able to either build a fleet and attack us or god only knows what sort of mischief.

Is there any way we can piece together who the supplier of iron is based upon conversation with the various parties or other information?

	07-07-2003 02:18									#9
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2 or more Civs now have Chiv. I detected a cost decrease for it on this turn. My belief is that ND now has it.

Here's a possible scenario:

GoW is egging ND on to attack us with the promise to help. While ND is busy with us and GoW is supposedly sending troops through ND terr to help (maybe or maybe not) GoW back-stabs ND.

We need a massive build up of military, especially Pikes.

Keep the builds for Graneries in Madrid and Pamplona and the Aquaduct in Barcelona, but change everything else to military. Rush in Vigo, Santiago, and Salmanca. Move lux slider up to 10% so as to get WTLKD in Zaragoza(10spt), Toledo(7spt), and Barcelona(7spt). Add a worker into the population at Vigo so as to get it to a size 6 and insitute a WLTKD there too, it will put out 6-7 spt then. If we mine the mountain just South of Toledo, it will put out 10 spt in a WLTKD.

I will be attempting to get confirmation from oth GoW and ND that ND had Chiv. If they do, we need to address this seriously. GoW would not give Chiv to ND if GoW was going to just turn around and use their Rider's on ND. That is of course they plan on using a ruse such as selling Chivalry to ND, in order to gain their confidence, and then get ND to attack Spain so that while ND is busy down South, GoW can go to work up North.

I cannot not think of a better way for GoW to get ND's confidence other than to give ND what it needs most, Chivalry. It demonstrates to ND that GoW trusts them. We need to be very wary and prepare for the worst right now.

I do not think this scenario includes GoW attacking us, but it does include ND attacking us for a few turns before GoW turns on ND. Of course GoW will say that they never meant for ND to attack us and that they 'had' to sell Chiv to ND because they actually came up with the ridiculous price of 500 gold.

	07-07-2003 05:42									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Arnelos GoW might certainly like to conquer someone for the sake of it, but the long-term prospects just aren't worth it unless GoW is taking the iron from ND and then cruelly backstabbing ND with the iron ND supplied.

If I were GoW, I'd do that, it is the best option becauyse the land is very close to me and Spain is likely to assist because ND is also a threat to Spain.

quote: So I seem to think that GS is the one supplying the iron if those are the two options. GS has a substantial interest in seeing a conflict on Bob and giving GoW iron works for that as long as GoW doesn't build a fleet. That may even be part of the agreement if one exists.

That is most likely, yes.

quote: If the supplier is GS, then that's not good for us. As GoW could be planning to attack ND, which means GS would then be able to either build a fleet and attack us or god only knows what sort of mischief.

We need to have an agreement with GS for that moment. It should be that worthy, that it is not worth cancelling that agreement and attacking us.

quote: Is there any way we can piece together who the supplier of iron is based upon conversation with the various parties or other information?

Yes there is, but then we'd have to talk with ND. Talking with GS will have little result: If they are the supplier, they'll say ND is supplying, If they are not, they might start thinking about doing so. If we chat or communicate with ND an point on the danger of GoW having iron, they mightgive us some information. Maybe not direct, but then probably indirect.

Aidun

	07-07-2003 05:44									#11
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FOUR CIVS NOW HAVE CHIVALRY

The price of Chivalry went from 704 labs to 512 labs in 1 turn. The reason is that THREE more people have aquired the tech. That means only 2 civs (presumably Roleplay and Vox) are without Chivalry.

So, apparently Glory of War whored Chivalry around to everyone but us, likely because we turned down their rather steep 500 gold offer. It's likely that if GoW charged others as much as they wanted to charge us, they likely have all of hte money they need to upgrade all horsemen to riders.

It also means we're the only military power on the board without Chivalry.

However, this also means that there's an easy way for Legoland to help us out if we go to blows with Glory of War and Legoland wants to help out (aside from sending us money... they can always send more money).

EDIT:

Price of Chivalry based upon # of owners:

0 owners: 768 labs
1 owner: 712 labs
2 owners: 640 labs
3 owners: 576 labs
4 owners: 512 labs

At 30% science, we make 36 labs/turn. Since at that rate, we would get Chivalry in 15 turns, which is 540 labs, then the price must be 540 labs or less... which means that 4 people now have Chivalry.

Please let me know if you can find that any of this is off.

	07-07-2003 08:34									#12
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As it stands right now, most of our Horses are oversees, onboard the ships. We should take this oppertunity to build some horsemen units to have available for upgrades. BUT, we still need to fill our the rest of our land, too.

E_T

	08-07-2003 01:11									#13
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130 B.C.

1 civ now has Education, presumably Legoland.
4 civs still have Chivalry, presumably everyone but RP and Vox.
0 civs have Engineering
0 civs have Printing Press

We should see what Legoland wants for Education.