07-07-2003 21:09									#1
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A PROPOSAL: "OPERATION ROGUE WAVE"

Here it is, folks:

I want to set up an alliance with GoW to attack ND & RP, with us getting RPs land (or most of it) and them getting ND's land.

I think we have a window of opportunity here that shouldn't be missed. We are militarily powerful and have 4-move galleys (and a lot of them). GoW now has the tech for Riders, and we can upgrade mobile forces to Knights. We can provide them with the iron they would lose if they attack ND. I don't think ND has Chivalry, and if they really are researching Engineering, they can only get Chiv soon via trade with Gow or us, I think. RP is still REXing.

We have not yet completed our luxury deal with RP, due to a disagreement re: NAP. That suits me just fine.

I would want an explicit alliance with GoW stating that they will attack ND, we will attack RP, and setting up the future border between us. I would also seek at least a 20-turn NAP between GoW and GS starting when the war ends.

Make no mistake: I am proposing a war of aggression, plain and simple.

What say you, StormHawks (and StormDoves, of course)?

-Arrian

	07-07-2003 21:39									#2
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well... in principal I like the idea. We need to go to Bob anyway, so why wouldn't we do it now.

However, we must anticipate counterinvasions, and we need buildings too... I'm not sure on the timing.

RP will have a large force of slowmovers, so they don't gain much by getting Chivalry. But, all little bits help, so perhaps we should ask GoW if they can keep chivalry to their own (also not distributing it to ND). I don't mind feeling GoW out of what they think of this, however please do it very carefully... we might need to buy a contract from them to be sure they're on our side, we don't need a 3-1 war (which is frankly the only way they can invade us successfully, if we don't go fighting on another continent)

DeepO

	07-07-2003 22:04									#3
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I'm for it, but I'm aware, that without the proper preparation the Bobians will stand together.

We have a lot of military hanging around and demanding pay. Give them guys something to do. We also have good ships and a lot of them. RP is still REXing, and thus should be pretty weak.

GoW seems to be craving a good war, that show the lots of "what if"s they ask us in the chats. It should be not hard to convince them. We could say, that with an equally divided Bob Lego would win the game. Also, we would not tolerate a 2vs1 on Bob (we can be honest here), because this would make us the weakest civ (not counting the zombie Vox).

The best method would be to manipulate them, as if it were their idea. We need somebody with outstanding diplomatic skills for this task, well prepared and with defined warrants. Of course, after the "agreement", he should say "I have to dicuss this with my team", because it's what we always do. But if we got this conspiracy running, things should work out fine.

Another possibility would be to "hire" them as warranty for the case, that RP bribes ND, but I'm not sure if we can afford this and if they would not backstab.

	07-07-2003 22:13									#4
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I don't want to hire them. I want them as an ally, not a contractor. They've shown us how they fulfil their contracts (questionably). I want them to go for this because it's in their interests, not because we're paying them.

I like the idea of manuevering them into proposing it, but like you say, that's going to take some talent.

-Arrian

	08-07-2003 04:22									#5
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As Aeson seemed to indicate in the turn 122 thread, I think just bringing up the idea would be very dangerous. If GoW likes the idea, fine. If they don't, and someone from GoW lets it slip to ND and/or RP, we could find ourselves in a huge diplomatic mess and maybe on the wrong end of a 3-vs.-1 war. I'm far from convinced that we have the diplomatic finesse (given the time available in our schedules) to feel GoW out on the idea without their getting an idea of what we have in mind. Also, the way GoW seems willing to twist the spirit of their agreements completely out of shape while still honoring the letter does not fill me with faith in them as a potential ally.

I still think our best strategy is to build but be prepared to change gears and fight should a good opportunity present itself.

	08-07-2003 04:54									#6
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Why a 2v2? Wouldn't a 3v1 be more certain and less costly? From what I recall, RP was the most powerful civ after us all the way along. Now they have their capital move finished, their capacity is bigger.

	08-07-2003 05:13									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Aeson I think it would be best to leave GoW out of it somehow actually. Long term NAP's with ND and GoW (that we let them talk us into), then a 'blessing' (as in, we wouldn't join in such a war against GoW) to GoW on the GoW+RP vs ND option, and then act on our own against RP. The end result is pretty much the same (other than not making an enemy of ND). We also end up not having any strings attached to help GoW in case ND ends up beating them or at least holding them off.

Copied here, because this is about the best thinking I've seen so far on how to get a war going on Bob.

I have not been thinking along these lines as I have been considering how to get GoW and ND into a war with RP. That would be my optimal solution and it might happen under Aeson's programme, but it is probably less likely than the RP-GoW thrashing of ND.

	08-07-2003 12:27									#8
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I don't think this is a good idea.

Imagine for a moment you were GoW. A bigger and more powerful civ from another continent has a NAP with you and your neighbor. After this is settled, they attack the third and by far biggest (by claimed landmass) civ on your continent. You realize, that if that big powerful civ succeeds to swallow all that land, they would have effectively won the game, because even a combined effort of all remaining civs would have little chances of success. Additionally, with a big foothold like this, a blow to sweep the continent clean is only a matter of time.

You'd have 2 options:

- Immediately attack your other neighbor. This war would be long and bloody, because both sides are equally prepared, about equally powerful and both have their UUs and GAs. Any outcome is possible.

- You talk your neighbor into breaking the NAP. The diplomatic penalty doesn't matter, because RP hardly will protest, ND would be in the same situation, Lego would keep quiet and Vox would either abstain or spout hatred, like "they're evil, told ya so".

What would you do?

	08-07-2003 12:52									#9
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The plan would be to make the agreements so that making war break out first is more likely, then jump in. It is much less likely that effective force could be deployed against us if they are already fighting amongst themselves.

	08-07-2003 12:54									#10
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This is why we have to do it with GoW.
This must seem to them like a "joint GS-GoW" victory if we take RP's land and they take ND's and fill up the rest of Bob, with the goal of kicking Lego ass coming up ahead.

	08-07-2003 13:33									#11
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If GoW are being honest about how they view the game (Lego winning unless we do something to stop it) then they might view the situation as needing two powers combining to take out Lego, and then those two powers slug it out for the final win. That moves them from a position of not being a winner to have a 50-50 shot at it - if two civs are going to take Lego down and put themselves into a position to win the game, they want to be one of them.

They might well be aware that taking over Bob would be enough to win the game, but they have to know as well that their chances of doing that are pretty slim on their own. They can only really attack ND now, and if they do too well there, RP is guaranteed to come in to help ND (they want ND and GoW to be of equal size, while they can grow to be bigger). They need us to distract RP from that for them to have any chance of taking a substantial chunk of Bob, and they need to have RP and ND more or less neutralised before an invasion of Lego is viable.

GoW vs ND and us vs RP also represents our best chance of gaining a decent bit of territory on Bob - GoW need to give us that concession to get our help, and if they don't they believe Lego is going to walk away with the game. Although GoW could conceivably be considering setting us up, it looks like it is in their perceived interests to stick to this plan - any betrayal hands Lego the game (in their eyes).

	08-07-2003 14:05									#12
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I'm curious about one thing: everybody has our map now, would that change perception of us? I mean, everybody should have some idea of how good we are economically and production wise, would it further lead to ganging up on us? Up until last chat, GoW only heared rumours of our power, now they see we're over double as good as them. I wonder if they even consider allying with us.

I agree that if we can make it so that we jump in on a war already started, there is little chance people will stop fightinh amongst each other, and turn towards us. However, even then do we need a decisive blow, so that once they realize what is happening, we have half RP conquered. We won't have 20 turns time to easily slug it out, by that time we should anticipate that our allies will turn on us.

DeepO

	08-07-2003 14:32									#13
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A gigantic and prolongued slugfest between us and all 3 of the Bobian civs (no matter if 2vs2 or 3vs1) would be the best ... for Lego.

	08-07-2003 16:34									#14
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Yes, but who cares what Lego does, as long as they stay on their continent, they can't win. I wonder if they realize that too...

DeepO

	08-07-2003 21:14									#15
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Certainly we don't start the war with RP until RP is already at war. GoW sounds like they want to know which 2v1 we'd let them fight, so we let them pick GoW+RP vs ND by signing the NAPs.

A war probably is going to break out very soon. We need to be in a position to gain from it and put our largest military to work. As Arrian has been asking for, we should have ~20 units (Pikes, Med Inf, Cats) loaded and ready to land RP at all times. Also, a couple galleys forward along the crossing in the N to watch for landing parties... and use our Horses and WC's to block landing sites while they are waiting to be upgraded. Once Vox is gone, it should free up enough troops for us to do so.

	08-07-2003 21:23									#16
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Aeson, do you mean you want to sign a NAP with RP? that would mean they gang up on ND... but would keep us from invading for another 20 turns. Probably I'm misinterpreting here?

DeepO

	08-07-2003 21:38									#17
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No NAP with RP. NAPs with GoW and probably ND. I don't think GoW is too worried about whether their 'friend' does well, as long as we won't be attacking GoW. Right now it sounds like the only thing keeping GoW from attacking someone is the threat of us backing whoever they target.

	09-07-2003 18:21									#18
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Ah, excellent, discussion

quote: Why a 2v2? Wouldn't a 3v1 be more certain and less costly?

Good question, NYE, but I don't see how the 3 would divide the spoils of the beaten 1. GoW+ND+GS vs. RP? Who gets what? Especially from GoW's perspective, I don't see how it's worth it. Further, I want GoW's Riders to have more opposition.

quote: If GoW likes the idea, fine. If they don't, and someone from GoW lets it slip to ND and/or RP, we could find ourselves in a huge diplomatic mess and maybe on the wrong end of a 3-vs.-1 war. I'm far from convinced that we have the diplomatic finesse to feel GoW out on the idea without their getting an idea of what we have in mind.

That's my only real fear, Nathan. But my reading of the communications between GoW and GS leads me to believe they would be interested. We could start off by signing a limited NAP with them and assuring them that, so long as they don't directly hamper any efforts we might make, we will provide them with iron. And then we hope they hit ND. If they do, we hit RP.

Let's get our troops in position for amphibious assault!

NOBODY EXPECTS THE SPANISH INQUISITION (to be wasted by war chickens)!

-Arrian

	09-07-2003 18:47									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Let's get our troops in position for amphibious assault!

Whatever our final decision would be, this is a good idea.

	09-07-2003 19:13									#20
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We need to wipe out the Spaniards before they get their fearsome UU!

	09-07-2003 23:43									#22
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Thanks for bringing up this plan Arrian!!

I've been thinking about this a lot lately... what will happen next in terms of warfare and alliances.

I think, for once, some SP thinking might be in order. What do we tell newer players who complain that they were humbly minding there own business, maybe had an MPP or entered some manageable war, and all of a sudden the AI civs dogpiled on them? (if a had a friggin' penny for how many times I've seen that!! )

We tell'em: If you don't partner with the other AI civs, someone else damn well will.

Anybody wondering who and how many of the other teams are plotting alliances to take us out?

I say we go for it, and make at least one of the Bobians a true partner. So that answers question #1 (for me, at least).

Question number two, of course, is who?

	09-07-2003 23:57									#23
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There's not much of a choice. ND excludes itself, they won't agree to a potential two front war. GoW is the obvious option, and RP... well, that would be a pact with the devil.

	10-07-2003 00:02									#24
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Wouldn't a pact with the devil be more easily dissolved?

(I'm just playing devil's advocate )

	10-07-2003 00:29									#25
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Seriously, though. GoW is the natural partner (to the extent that there IS a natural partner for us). Geographically, it pretty much has to be either GoW or RP. But given relations with RP, I just don't see how we could work out a partnership of this magnitude with them. Togas would almost assuredly backstab us if we even hinted we were looking to divvy up Bob.

-Arrian