16-07-2003 13:03									#61
	Got spare money?

quote: If I may draw your attention to the part in my post where I said "source: OECD & BEA" - but why am I bothering, you never look at anything that contradicts your political beliefs.

I don't recall seeing that line in your original post...

quote: Last edited by el freako on Wednesday, 16th July 2003 at 09:53:08

Since I'm awfully clueless about even the basic economics, I wouldn't know who should I trust in an ordinary situation, but luckily Fez is here... makes it much easier.

quote: But the answer is yes, and I see Jon has already explained.

Thanks. I'll check it.

quote: Btw, there are also big differences concerning seasonal adjustment

Old Kinderhook.

	16-07-2003 13:03									#62
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

I cited my source as the Economist. Get the latest magazine and you will notice Germany has an unemployment rate of 10-11%, and France has one around 10%.

	16-07-2003 13:14									#63
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

"Old Kinderhook" ?

	16-07-2003 13:15									#64
	Inflate your Upload Space

quote: Originally posted by Fez I cited my source as the Economist. Get the latest magazine and you will notice Germany has an unemployment rate of 10-11%, and France has one around 10%.

I did not know the Economist is a primary source of statistics.

	16-07-2003 13:16									#65
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler I did not know the Economist is a primary source of statistics.

Well in the magazine they got a bunch of listings and numbers...

I read those often.

	16-07-2003 13:20									#66
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Fez The US economy is actually growing. Germany is not and France registered minimal growth. I am talking about 2003.

well that's mainly due to differences in the economic cycle, differences in the way the US, France and Germany measure inflation and differences in population growth.

Both the US and France use a 'hedonic' deflator (this attempts to capture implicit price falls as IT equipment gets more powerful) whereas Germany (and every other rich country bar Australia) does not.

When the US changed to using a hedonic deflator in 1999 they recalculated the growth rates for the whole period they have data for (from 1929 onwards).
The growth rate for 1929-1998 using the new hedonic deflator turned out to be 0.5% a year higher than using the old method (in other words growth over that time was 40% more than previously thought) - I have also done a study checking this against nominal GDP values of the OECD converted using PPPs and the discrepancy is also around 0.5% a year (except for France and Australia where it is almost nothing).

So let's see how this difference of measurement, coupled with differing population growth changes the figures for growth for the year to Q1 2003:

Raw data, growth from Q1 2002 to Q1 2003
United States: 2.0%
Germany: 0.2%
France: 1.1%

Adjusting for differences in the measurement of inflation and population growth:
United States: 0.8%
Germany: 0.5%
France: 0.7%

Yes the US is still out ahead, but the difference is negligable and it would take a very long time to make up the relative losses that the US suffered in 2000-01.


The OECD also publishes estimates of the growth in potential output, adjusting these for the above mentioned inflation measurement and population growth rates:
United States: 1.7%
Germany: 1.8%
France: 1.8%

What this means is that output per person in these three countries is growing at around the same rate - this is not to say that France and Germany couldn't do better (most of the rest of the EU is) but their performance relative to the US is equivalent.

	16-07-2003 13:21									#67
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Yes, but what about the problem in Germany and France with tough labor laws and outmoded industries? What about Germany's recession which has registered negative growth in two consecutive quarters? Again I cite The Economist magazine as my source.

	16-07-2003 13:24									#68
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by Fez I cited my source as the Economist. Get the latest magazine and you will notice Germany has an unemployment rate of 10-11%, and France has one around 10%.

You should read the footnotes on that page - there it also gives the 'EU harmonized' rate for Germany (currently 9.4%, 3.0% above the US level)


If Germany inflation (and thus growth) was measured using the US method then that recession would not have happened (although there still would have been a period of sluggish growth).

Germany's labour market is indeed not performing as well as most of the rest of europe - but then again it already had high levels of employment (69% of the working age population vs 71% in the US)

	16-07-2003 13:25									#69
	Put an end to popups!

This is bullshit. How can I talk with somebody who twists information to suit their own needs? GET IT RIGHT, FRANCE AND GERMANY ARE NOT DOING WELL AND ARE IN RECESSION. THE US IS NOT.

	16-07-2003 13:30									#70
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

It is interesting that you would rather swallow information that supports your political beliefs rather than actually checking my assertions.

I am sceptical of every statistic I come across - which is why I get the raw data and look for discrepancies (and also why I pedantically correct people like yourself who draw the wrong conclusions from processed data).

You appear to be sceptical of only that data which fails to support your political beliefs.

As such you could catagorize me as a scientist and you as a fundamentalist

	16-07-2003 13:31									#71
	Suffering from ads?

You are nothing but a raving lunatic.

	16-07-2003 13:35									#72
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

You may (rightfully) call me anything you like when you have checked the data yourself.

Actually I may be being needlessly harsh with you.

Let me ask you a couple of questions:

1. Did you believe the high growth rates that the USSR used to post?
2. Do you believe the rates that China is currently posting?

	16-07-2003 13:35									#73
	Full PM-box? Change here!

"This is bullshit. How can I talk with somebody who twists information to suit their own needs?"

"You are nothing but a raving lunatic."

It's always funny when Fez starts talking to himself.

	16-07-2003 13:38									#75
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

come on Fez, answer my questions.

	16-07-2003 13:39									#76
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

What questions? Oh you mean this crap:

quote: 1. Did you believe the high growth rates that the USSR used to post? 2. Do you believe the rates that China is currently posting?

They both lie about their performance.

	16-07-2003 13:45									#77
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by Fez What questions? Oh you mean this crap: They both lie about their performance.

So why should the US not 'lie' about theirs?

By lie I mean use a different definition that flatters their figures.

All the evidence is that the growth of european nations is understated, relative to the US, by around 0.5% a year - couple this with the fact that the US population is growing by around 1% a year faster and the US needs to grow 1.5% a year faster than european economies simply to keep their relative incomes the same

If you fail to see that this is a possibility then you are guilty of only looking at data that flatters your political view (the evil commies do it but capitalist US wouldn't)

	16-07-2003 13:46									#78
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

One reason: I believe the US more than I believe the bureaucratic BSers in Bejing and Moscow.

	16-07-2003 13:50									#79
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

That's a fair point, but it's only a matter of degree.

The same method by which I estimated that EU growth was understated by 0.5% a year relative to the US suggests that China's growth is overestimated by 2.7% a year - as you can see the difference here is one of degree.

How can you not see the problem with comparing the growth rates of countries using a hedonic deflator with those that don't when the change in the US added 0.5% a year to the reported growth rates?

It also shows that you 'believe' whereas I 'check'

	16-07-2003 14:18									#80
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Gosh... you are more stubborn than my boyfriend was. But at least he was honest.

	16-07-2003 14:22									#81
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Throw around all the insults you like Fez, it's you who have been shown to believe only the data you want to.

Using insults just shows that your debating skill is even feebler than I thought, which means it's actually negative - in other words to gain credibility in an argument I should try to get you to disagree with me

	16-07-2003 14:25									#82
	Suffering from ads?

Well sometimes the act of being stubborn isn't bad... I kinda like it... feebler? I mean what kind of basis do you have to speak with? Who made you such a genus? I am using the cold hard facts from The Economist magazine, take it or leave it. The US economy performed better than France or Germany. That is a fact.

	16-07-2003 14:40									#83
	Suffering from ads?

The data you talk about are not cold hard facts - it is processed data.
I have shown you why this can be misleading.
Have you studied the relative incomes of countries for decades?
Have you tracked back growth rates and seen that they don't compare with what was known at the time?
Why do you not treat these statistics with the same skepticism you would those that go against your political beliefs?

If you track back incomes using the new US GDP figures then in 1929 the UK had an average income 10% higher than the US - this was at a time when it was acknowledged that the US had the 'highest standard of living in the world'.

As to why I am a genius (IQ=157), it's probably a mixture of genetics and upbringing, I do know that I feel that intelligence is overated - but that's probably because I have it (like people with money or love don't think it's as important as those without it)

You are asking me to trust your data - I am not asking you to trust mine, I'm asking you to go and check it yourself.


The only simple fact here is that you will swallow any data that supports your worldview without questioning it - I warn you, that trait makes you vunerable to unscrupulous people that you will surely meet in your life, it would be wise to learn to change it.

	16-07-2003 14:48									#84
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Regurgitation.

Are you a computer or robot?

I guess you think I am an idiot.

Well read my lips, you will not change my opinion on anything as you are nothing but a tyrannical person who appears condescending in the least.

You come off no more than an absolute fool in this regard when it comes to economics. And you make up an IQ score to cover yourself.

Get out!

	16-07-2003 15:00									#85
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by Fez Regurgitation.

That's pretty rich coming from someone who has not done anything to support their point of view other than saying 'here is the data from my source, like it or lump it'

quote: Originally posted by Fez Are you a computer or robot?

Insults are the last refuge of someone who has no argument.

quote: Originally posted by Fez I guess you think I am an idiot.

It's hard to ignore the evidence you keep providing to support this hypothesis.
Although I cling to the hope that you are either merely misguided or that you want to argue for argument sake.

quote: Originally posted by Fez Well read my lips, you will not change my opinion on anything as you are nothing but a tyrannical person who appears condescending in the least.

More insults, see above.
The reason I come across as condescending is that you come accross as someone who is unwilling to face facts that you don't want to.

quote: Originally posted by Fez You come off no more than an absolute fool in this regard when it comes to economics. And you make up an IQ score to cover yourself. Get out!

let's let others decide who has made themselves a fool (they are the best ones to judge) - I fear nothing from them (except perhaps that I give in too much to Fez baiting, it is a character flaw of mine).
Why should I want to make up an IQ score?
Do you think I'm bragging or something?
I already said I don't think much of IQ scores - intelligence is not connected to that much rarer commodity, wisdom.
Why are you telling me to get out?
What relevance has that to our discussion?

	16-07-2003 15:06									#86
	Put an end to popups!

quote: Originally posted by Fez I guess you think I am an idiot.

quote: Originally posted by el freako It's hard to ignore the evidence you keep providing to support this hypothesis.

	16-07-2003 15:10									#87
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

Glad to see someone else is enjoying this

	16-07-2003 15:23									#88
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Pshaw! If you think you can make a mockery of me think again! You proclaim I have no argument. But you are the one without an argument. You are a leftist. Leftists never make any points.

	16-07-2003 15:28									#89
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Some information from the CIA factbook:

Germany:

Germany's affluent and technologically powerful economy turned in a relatively weak performance throughout much of the 1990s. The modernization and integration of the eastern German economy continues to be a costly long-term problem, with annual transfers from west to east amounting to roughly $70 billion. Germany's ageing population, combined with high unemployment, has pushed social security outlays to a level exceeding contributions from workers. Structural rigidities in the labor market - including strict regulations on laying off workers and the setting of wages on a national basis - have made unemployment a chronic problem. Business and income tax cuts introduced in 2001 did not spare Germany from the impact of the downturn in international trade, and domestic demand faltered as unemployment began to rise. Growth in 2002 again fell short of 1%. Corporate restructuring and growing capital markets are setting the foundations that could allow Germany to meet the long-term challenges of European economic integration and globalization, particularly if labor market rigidities are addressed. In the short run, however, the fall in government revenues and the rise in expenditures has brought the deficit close to the EU's 3% debt limit.

****

This proves my point entirely.

	16-07-2003 15:31									#90
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Don't trust any other in CIA which may be in any chance subjective, eg., trust only statistics there. The job of CIA officials is to lie.