21-07-2003 07:42									#31
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quote: Those right-wing yahoos are insufferable.

Agreed, but they are even more insufferable to the Chinese, who need a stronger incentive to action.

quote: Also, don't they have like less than 1% support?

I'm not sure of the level, but I am also under the impression that it's quite small. However, they are disproportionately vocal. They do things like organize convoys of trucks with powerful loudspeakers to harass opponents.

quote: Anyway, perhaps this tree does need shaken harder, but aren't the NKers doing this well enough?

Not vis-a-vis China. NK's tree-shaking bothers the US, not China. In fact, Beijing hardliners are probably quite pleased that NK is causing so much grief for the US.

Right-wing Japanese tree-shaking is an altogether different thing. Those very same Beijing hardliners will be the most affected by the rattling of a nuclear-tipped Samurai sword. Last time an extremist Japanese politician mentioned the topic (last year), the Chinese gov't went ballistic. This is why I think it's the perfect prod to get Bejing more constructively involved.

quote: As an aside, do the majority of Japanese really support nukes, if there were no pressing threat from NK?

I believe that the majority of Japanese are strongly against Japan fielding nuclear weapons. Does anyone here know for certain?

	21-07-2003 07:44									#32
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quote: I believe that the majority of Japanese are strongly against Japan fielding nuclear weapons. Does anyone here know for certain?

Yes, they are. Then again, they'd probably support any policy their government told them was necessary, even if they were morally opposed to it. Weird situation.

	21-07-2003 10:04									#33
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They do things like organize convoys of trucks with powerful loudspeakers to harass opponents.

Yeh, those are the ones that I was thinking about. Perhaps Japan should have a public debate about the possibility. Plant it at a fairly low political level. I think that would be better and more credible to the non right-wing nutters in Beijing. I don't want us to help the yahoos in any way.

Drake: Would it be possible to put forward a public debate such as that in Japan? I don't know how too well how Japanese media works.

	21-07-2003 11:23									#34
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China, while necessary to these diplomatic talks, is probably loving the fact that the US is so frustrated with NK.

	21-07-2003 19:06									#35
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From todays USA Today online:

S. Korea dismisses report on nuke plant
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea's president on Monday dismissed a report that North Korea has secretly built another plutonium production plant and expressed concern that such media accounts could hurt his country's economy.
Meanwhile, a senior South Korean official predicted a possible breakthrough in the nuclear standoff, saying the United States, China and North Korea will hold talks in Beijing "quite soon."

The nations are "in the final stage of arranging a new meeting," said Ra Jong-il, President Roh Moo-hyun's national security adviser.

Quoting unnamed U.S. and Asian officials with access to the latest intelligence on North Korea, the New York Times reported Sunday that strong evidence has emerged in recent weeks that the communist state has built a second, secret plant for plutonium, a key material for nuclear bombs.

Roh was told by aides Monday that the Times report was "low in reliability," said Kim Man-soo, Roh's deputy spokesman.

"The president expressed concern about the phenomenon of unclear and groundless media reports throwing cold water on our economy," Kim said.

South Korean experts said North Korea would find it hard to secretly build another plutonium production plant. Yet they did not rule it out.

"Concluding that North Korea has a new, second plutonium plant is stretching it way too much," Roh's national security adviser said in an interview with Seoul's CBS Radio.

If true, a report that North Korea has built a second plant for producing weapons-grade plutonium could complicate diplomatic efforts to seek the verifiable dismantling of Pyongyang's nuclear facilities. It also poses a dilemma for President Bush if diplomacy fails and he is forced to consider military action.

Even if talks take place to check North Korea's nuclear ambitions, no quick result is expected. On Monday, North Korea said unless Washington "legally committed itself to nonaggression," it would not give up its nuclear programs.

"The nuclear issue between the (North) and the U.S. is a very acute matter of 'who beats whom.' Therefore, there can be no unilateral concession or compromise forced by one side. It can be settled only through negotiations based on the principles of fairness, equality and trust," said Pyongyang's official news agency KCNA.

In the past week, China, a longtime ally and key aid provider for North Korea, has dispatched its Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo to Pyongyang and then to Washington to press for a new round of three-way talks, which will later include South Korea and Japan.

North Korea has demanded one-on-one discussions with the United States, saying the nuclear issue is between it and Washington. The United States says the issue is a regional one and wants to include China, Japan and South Korea in five-way discussions.

In the first three-party meeting China hosted in Beijing in April, North Korea said it already had nuclear weapons but it was willing to give up its nuclear programs in return for economic aid and security guarantees. U.S. officials have ruled out a nonaggression treaty with North Korea but said they could consider less formal guarantees.

U.S. and U.N. officials are watching for signs that Pyongyang has begun producing weapons-grade plutonium, a process that emits a kind of krypton gas that U.S. sensors can detect. The Times reported that American officials confirmed that sensors on the North Korean border have detected elevated levels of krypton 85.

But the gas is apparently not emanating from North Korea's known Yongbyon nuclear site, leading American and Asian officials to believe North Korea has secretly built a second plant for producing plutonium, according to the Times.

A senior State Department official, speaking in Washington on condition of anonymity, said there was no hard evidence to back up the idea that there is a secret plutonium processing plant.

"There are suspicions such exists, but no hard evidence," the official said.

This month, North Korea told U.S. officials that it had reprocessed all of its 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, a procedure that experts say could yield enough plutonium to make several nuclear bombs within months. U.S. officials are not sure whether North Korea is bluffing.

The nuclear dispute flared in October when U.S. officials said North Korea admitted having a clandestine, uranium-based nuclear program in violation of international agreements.


It appears that talks are moving forward in spite of dubious intelligence reports. I would like to see DPRK's explaination for the Krypton gas though.

	21-07-2003 19:58									#36
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quote: Originally posted by DanS There are other options, and combinations of options that the administration can use, GePap. For instance, coercive negotiations, interdiction, etc.

Interdictions? Of what? NK stuff being shipped out? That does little to slow down the NK on its way to making nukes. Coercive negotiations? To do so, te US has to negotiate, but this admin. seems to think that first the NOrth KOreans give up and dismantle their nuclear arsenal, THEN we negotiate. That is not going to happen.

As for the Japanese and other becoming nuclear: that is not in US interests either folks: Ther basis for our arguement against NK is that it is breaking international treaties by its actions. BUt the very same intrnational agreement bars Japan and SK form going nuclear. I Japan openly breaks the NPT and goes nuclear, kiss the NPT goodbye, and then what arguemenet would we have versus, say Iran? HOw wise is it to expect China to act based on an action that might be against it's interest, when it is also against OURS?

	21-07-2003 21:03									#37
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quote: As for the Japanese and other becoming nuclear: that is not in US interests either folks:

No, the strategy is more nuanced. Japan need not go nuclear, it need only act like it. Beijing will go wild, and will reign in NK.

Last year, when a single right-wing Japanese politician suggested a nuclear-armed Japan, it was all over the Chinese press, with Beijing loudly denouncing it. Imagine the response if Tokyo officially debated the idea as a response to a nuclear NK?

The PRC holds the trump card in this hand. However, at this time they have very little reason to use it. In fact, they have a strong incentive (continued US distress) not to. The prospect of a Japan arming itself against a nuclear NK may be just the incentive needed.

	21-07-2003 21:26									#38
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China has every right to be upset at the thought of a nuclear Japan. They remember the devastation that Japan wrought upon their nation. Americans don't understand that most of the world has a long memory.

	21-07-2003 21:28									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Sava China has every right to be upset at the thought of a nuclear Japan. They remember the devastation that Japan wrought upon their nation. Americans don't understand that most of the world has a long memory.

Particularly East Asians.

China ia smart enough to realize that the road to a non-nuclear Japan runs through Pyongyang.

	21-07-2003 21:28									#40
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"Act like it"? In the world of nukes, "acting like it" means nothig: just look at NK itself. Does "acting like" they are nuclear actually give Japan any deterrence, if everyone knows they are just acting? (after al, the second anyone acts that way, one of the nuclear powers can call on the IAEA to go investigate and make sure people are not cheating on their treaty duties).

I am sure the Response in beijing would be huge is the Tokyo government took the issue up: but the government would have to come to a decision, no? A positive one runs counter the NPT. A negative one, and no harm to China.

	21-07-2003 21:31									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Sava China has every right to be upset at the thought of a nuclear Japan. They remember the devastation that Japan wrought upon their nation. Americans don't understand that most of the world has a long memory.

But that does not drive policy. If the "thought" was enough, the Chinese would have acted vs. NK months ago. NO, "thoughts" don;t drive policy, calculated annalysis of real life possibility drives policy. HOw much do the Chinese think the Japanese will actually go nuclear if NK does? How does China think the US would react? How would the world react? These are the questions, and they don;t yet have answers.

	21-07-2003 21:32									#42
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GePap, Given the present world environment, I don't see the NPT surviving even another 5 years. This topic needs international dialogue now in order to avert a real crisis

	21-07-2003 21:33									#43
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quote: China ia smart enough to realize that the road to a non-nuclear Japan runs through Pyongyang.

perhaps... I suppose the instability in the region might keep Japan off balance. But I think China's stockpile of nukes is enough to keep Japan at bay. Personally, as an American, the thought of a nuclear Japan gives me goose bumps. This world needs less people with nukes, not more.

	21-07-2003 21:35									#44
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The longer this mess with Pyongyang lasts the greater the danger they'll be forced to do more than just "act like it," IMO. This will especially be true if it ends up with North Korea giving no concrete assurances that they will give up their nuclear program for good a la the original Agreed Framework.

	21-07-2003 21:38									#45
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Ditto Sava. Goose bumps for me to. Could not agree more with less nuclear powers.

Dino, The agreed Framework appears dead. Something desperatly needs to replace it with verifiable punch to it.

	21-07-2003 21:39									#46
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO1003 GePap, Given the present world environment, I don't see the NPT surviving even another 5 years. This topic needs international dialogue now in order to avert a real crisis

And what justification can the nuclear powers give for renewing or creating a new system in which they keep to have a monopoly based simply on "got there first?". If the NPT collapses, then it is nukes for whomever thnks they need it time.

	21-07-2003 21:42									#47
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And what justification can the nuclear powers give for renewing or creating a new system in which they keep to have a monopoly based simply on "got there first?". If the NPT collapses, then it is nukes for whomever thnks they need it time.

Exactly...Crisis time.

	22-07-2003 01:53									#48
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quote: China has every right to be upset at the thought of a nuclear Japan. They remember the devastation that Japan wrought upon their nation. Americans don't understand that most of the world has a long memory.

actually, all of east asia has a right to be upset at the thought of a nuclear japan. that, and a remilitarized japan, actually.
one sad thing related to that is the rise in popularity in modern south korean literature of reunification with the north at japan's expense. granted, they've every right to be pissed at japan and hate that nasty bit of history (which led to the current division, in a way)... but that's not the right way to go about it.

what it boils down to is that japan going nuclear--or even remilitarizing, will touch off more arms races in east asia, and exacerbate the one that already exists.

the framework is dead. i don't know whether to smack jimmy carter for sticking his head in where it don't belong, or to just write it off as an ignorant but good-hearted attempt that went wrong. at least he's still a good georgia boy.

and it's only a crisis when bush's team declares it a crisis. they've still not done that--i personally think it was a crisis since last year.

	22-07-2003 02:57									#49
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The rest of this I have no very good idea about, but I can say this much:

quote: Many (most?) Chinese, even educated young Chinese

I've never met one that has. I think you over estimate the amount of people who hate, otherwise there would be hate crimes or something against Japanese people by Chinese (or vice versa) in countries with many immigrants from those countries (in my case, that's Australia, and all's quiet here).

	22-07-2003 07:53									#50
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asians don't hate in quite the same way, methinks.

even though japanese are rather hated in korea, there are few crimes against the japanese; the hate boils down to demonization of the other, and avoidance, is what i've noticed.

besides, with immigrant populations, they're too busy trying to make a living, or too busy facing down racism against them to actually be bothered to try something against the others.