18-07-2003 18:31									#1
	China Pushes North Korea and U.S. Talks Tired of ads?

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/18/i...sia/18KORE.html

quote: China Pushes North Korea and U.S. Talks By JOSEPH KAHN UANGZHOU, China, July 17 — China stepped up its efforts to broker negotiations between the United States and North Korea today, dispatching a senior diplomat to Washington and urging both sides to revive a discarded 1994 accord on ending North Korea's nuclear program. China's unusual public campaign suggested that it intends to play a more assertive mediating role in a new round of talks, which some experts say could be held as soon as August, probably in the Chinese capital of Beijing. "China hopes to see the quick resumption of the peace talks," Kong Quan, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a news briefing today. "The purpose of the Beijing talks would be to seek a final settlement to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." Deputy Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo left Beijing today for Washington, where he is expected to meet with Bush administration officials to discuss terms for new talks. Mr. Dai had just returned from a four-day visit to Pyongyang, the North Korean capital. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said on Wednesday that the United States was open to discussions with North Korea. He said he expected to see very soon the reopening of a diplomatic channel. If talks do get under way, China indicated that it would urge the United States and North Korea to return to the 1994 accord, known as the Agreed Framework, negotiated by the Clinton administration to try to stop North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. Under the accord, the United States and its allies agreed to provide fuel to North Korea and help it build two light-water nuclear reactors. North Korea agreed to shut down its existing nuclear reactor and abandon all plans to build atomic bombs. After taking office in 2001, the Bush administration expressed skepticism about the agreement, which collapsed after North Korea acknowledged that it had been pursuing a nuclear arms program in violation of the 1994 accord. North Korea has since fired up its five-megawatt nuclear plant, pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and expelled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency. Administration officials also said this week that North Korea boasted that it had begun reprocessing 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods to make plutonium. If that is true, the country could begin building a small arsenal of nuclear weapons within months. Some administration officials have rejected the possibility of reviving the 1994 agreement as the basis for future negotiations, saying that it amounted to blackmail. North Korea, administration officials say, must unilaterally and verifiably give up its nuclear program before the United States will discuss economic or diplomatic incentives. The Chinese, however, say that the earlier agreement should remain the basis for new negotiations. "The 1994 Agreed Framework played a role for a certain period of time, for 10 years," Mr. Kong said. "We hope that the agreement can be continued, but it will be up to the parties concerned."

	18-07-2003 18:35									#2
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

The 1994 Agreed Framework had no verification apparatus and is therefore worthless. The perfect example is the fact that DPRK admitted violating it and then escalated the situation when the US took exception. A new agreement is called for with tough verification standards. This is the only solution that will ensure a nuclear free Korea.

	18-07-2003 18:36									#3
	Get a bigger avatar today!

How about nuking Korea? Or would that defeat the point?

	18-07-2003 18:46									#4
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by DaShi How about nuking Korea? Or would that defeat the point?

For 50 years DPRK has had US troops on its border. Why now do they need nukes to defend themselves? The answer is really simple. They don't. The economic plight of the North has gotten so bad that their only hope of survival is some type of reunification with the economic engine in the south. As they have seen in Europe, this model ends up giving the power to the more democratically based society (in this case ROK). This is an unacceptable position for Kim. IMO, he is preparing a nuclear arsenal to ensure that any attack into the south will have a deterent against major Us or Chinese involvement. Hence his policy of trying to isolate US and ROK in diplomatic talks. His short sitedness about both US and Chinese resolve in him possesing nuclear weapons is a huge concern. It sadly may come to a war or even a nuclear war unless China is able to apply enough pressure to make him understand the reality that his nation faces and the reality of the world today.

	18-07-2003 19:44									#5
	Put an end to popups!

While China's efforts are appreciated, advocating a return to the Agreed Framework amounts to them carrying NK's water. China needs to reeducate its client about China's wider interests in the region, and we need to sit tight and not give NK any quarter, until both NK and China take a more constructive approach.

Last edited by DanS on 18-07-2003 at 19:51

	18-07-2003 20:25									#6
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

And all NK has to do is test a nuke and call Bush's bluff on the penninsula. After they have an arsenal, trying to make them give it up would require serious concessions, given that it makes the military option that less politically viable, speically if the NK shows it could hit Japan with nukes.

	18-07-2003 20:30									#7
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

And all NK has to do is test a nuke and call Bush's bluff on the penninsula.

After which, Japan, Taiwan, and possibly SK go nuclear as well. How would China like that?

	18-07-2003 20:34									#8
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

How to end this is a super show of force to NK by the USA and China.
China sends a million troops to the northern border of NK and the US sends five carriers to the region. Even Kim would have to back down if he saw that kind of firepower.
Peace through superior firepower.

	18-07-2003 20:38									#9
	Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by DanS And all NK has to do is test a nuke and call Bush's bluff on the penninsula. After which, Japan, Taiwan, and possibly SK go nuclear as well. How would China like that?

I think you overestimate the power the Chinese have over the NK leadership and their ability to make nukes, plus the North can always just open the floodgates to let hundreds of thousands of refugees in Manchuria, or at least make the threat to the Chinese. The Chinese are less interested in these big strategic concerns than they are immediate political concerns.

	18-07-2003 20:42									#10
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Also, the threat to China from these other states going nuclear is not as large as people may make it out to seem, beside taiwan. Japan already falls under the US nuclear umbrella, SK has increasingly good relations with China, and both are signatories of the NPT, so if they go nuclear, well, the whole system might as well come down, and that is not in the interests of the US either, now is it? (cause then, Iran and others don;t have to worry about the PT anymore). Only Taiwan seems an issue (since they are in diplomatic limbo), but why would taiwan give a rats ass if NK goes nuclear? their sole motivate is China, and China is already nuclear.

	18-07-2003 20:43									#11
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

I think you overestimate the power the Chinese have over the NK leadership and their ability to make nukes, plus the North can always just open the floodgates to let hundreds of thousands of refugees in Manchuria, or at least make the threat to the Chinese.

Well, let them deal with the problem. It's one of their own making. Would they rather put the kaibash on their client or see Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea go nuclear (with the knowledge that their client isn't going to be around much longer)?

	18-07-2003 20:58									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

NK is not really a cleint. NK and Chinese soldeirs have been know to fire at each other periodically, and Once NK shows itself to be nuclear, this admin. will not be able to sell a war on the penninsula to many people.

As for the "others going nuclear", look above.

	18-07-2003 21:02									#13
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: Originally posted by GePap Once NK shows itself to be nuclear, this admin. will not be able to sell a war on the penninsula to many people.

With the correct political spin, just the opposite could be true. If Americans are sold the idea that we are about to have a rain of DPRK missles on the west coast then war is more probable than not IMO.

	19-07-2003 05:24									#14
	Got spare money?

If only they could sell that to the SK and Japanese, who's permisions we would need to fight such a war, cuase they know that in reality no nukes make it to the US, but that they can certainly fall on them (more a worry for japan, since SK's don;t think the north is aming those nukes at them, and they ahve enough to worry over conventional attack).

	19-07-2003 05:58									#15
	Got spare money?

I fail to see why we should do anything for the Chinese here. Plus sitting at a table will accomplish nothing if there is no change in the attitude of the NK. Making them sweat a little makes a lot more sense. They will game things if we sit down. Once we sit down, the onus is on us to come away with seomthing given the press following it and the pressure for "success". Much better to create demands on NK behavior prior to agreeing to a meeting. Also, I don't think we can credibly negotaite with the NK unless we have some threat and to have a threat we need to have the SK (and possibly chinese) on board with us. So we need to get them to ante up first.

	19-07-2003 06:01									#16
	Increase Your PM Length

I think the Chinese could actually end up invading North Korea. The PRC has about $50 billion (or perhaps $70B) in trade with South Korea from the last figures I heard.

	19-07-2003 06:23									#17
	Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by Fez I think the Chinese could actually end up invading North Korea. The PRC has about $50 billion (or perhaps $70B) in trade with South Korea from the last figures I heard.

I think a Sino-American alliance of NK is a good Idea. the SK's don't want us there, so we get the Chinese to do it for us.

	19-07-2003 06:26									#18
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

I think that the Chinese have a very different take on the NK than we do. They have problems with them occasionaly. Yes. Buyt they also get benefit from having a client state, including one who ties our panties in a bunch. Don't be so sure that the incentives are very well alinged from us and them.

	19-07-2003 07:07									#19
	Full PM-box? Change here!

quote: Originally posted by Odin I think a Sino-American alliance of NK is a good Idea. the SK's don't want us there, so we get the Chinese to do it for us.

I think it is a strong possiblity this might end up happening.... South Korea might end up joining in the end, after all having a rather powerful military.

TCO: I must disagree. China has $50 billion worth of trade with South Korea, it has $700 million with North Korea. Now you see why China does not want anything happening? They will see $50 billion go up in smoke, and not to mention further damage to their own economy.

	19-07-2003 07:22									#20
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

You ascribe way too much importance to that trade balance. That cuts both ways, young neophyte.

	19-07-2003 08:01									#21
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Wars are bad for local stability, drtive out foreing investment, ergo China will not invade NK: the day that happens is the day the Bush admins. creates univcersal health care in the US.

The question is, in a US,SK, Japan v NK war. does China cut NK off and shorten the war significantly? porbably. But a war with NK will not be pretty, speically once they have nukes on missiles aimed for Tokyo.

	19-07-2003 16:14									#22
	Support Apolyton

I think we need to start clandestinely supporting right-wing yahoos in Japan, who are already pretty vocal. We need to help them shake the tree a little harder. Whenever Japan and the "n-word" appear in the same sentence, the Chinese become very, very concerned.

Many (most?) Chinese, even educated young Chinese, unabashedly despise the Japanese. A nuclear Japan is such an intolerable concept that they will certainly force NK's hand should it come to that. China supplies a large share of NK's electricity, that's a powerful thumbscrew.

	19-07-2003 17:25									#23
	Increase the size of your Attachments

checking in.

china won't invade nkorea. it would put not only trade with skorea at risk, but also with many other nations, no matter how heinous the nkorean regime is. nkorea going nuclear would lead the others in the region to follow. nkorea is ultrapaparnoid, which is why they want nukes. nobody wants a nuclear japan, except maybe japan and certain factions in the us. this misconception that the skoreans don't want americans there is exactly that, a misconception. and since nobody seems to really care about my opinion, i'm checking out now.

	19-07-2003 19:40									#24
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by GePap given that it makes the military option that less politically viable, speically if the NK shows it could hit Japan with nukes.

Given that an assault on them isn't all that politically viable to begin with, I fail to see how this is much of a gain.

	19-07-2003 19:50									#25
	Got spare money?

The admin. theorizes that they could cary out air attacks against nuclear facilities as a last resort. Once the NK has nukes on hand, the airstrikes are a bit late, and given the status of the NK, even airstrikes would probalby lead to all out war.

The admin. still has force as it last optiion, but given that it does not care to talk much with the north at this moment, this leaves the admin. with non-military pressure, which leaves China as the key; or military attack. The thing is, how far China is willing to go is questionable. So unless the US takes Chinas offer for talks, that only pushes us towards the use of force.

	19-07-2003 19:53									#26
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

GePap, did you study illogic? None of your propositions follow logically. Why does "not talking" force us to use our nonmilitary pressure. How would "talking" change it? You are a buttbrain.

	19-07-2003 20:03									#27
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Are you morphing into Fez?

Lets see:

Bush admin.s stated aim: to prevent a nuclear north korea.

Possible methods to use:
1. Negotiaions: strike a deal with NK to ends it's nuclear program.
2. Use economic pressure to force the NK regime to back down and give up its nuclear wepaons program.
3. Use force to destroy the North's nuclear weapon program.

If the admin. will noty use method one, it follows logically that it must use either method's 2 or 3, toherwise, they must be lying when they state their aim. Now, the admin. ca try to use 2. as a precurson to 1., but China is the key to making 2. work. China at this point refuses to play along and is pushing for 1. All the while the NK's move closer to a bomb. Once NK is nuclear, the satkes go up all around, so if the admin. whishes to stop NK form getting nukes now, it either takes China's offer, or as long as China refuses to make 2. a reality, has to go with 3.

Oh, yes, higly illogical.... must be the bends you are getting TCO.

	19-07-2003 20:28									#28
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

You have at least expalained your argument now. It is a crappy one. But at least it follows.

	20-07-2003 11:02									#29
	Tired of ads?

There are other options, and combinations of options that the administration can use, GePap. For instance, coercive negotiations, interdiction, etc.

	20-07-2003 11:06									#30
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I think we need to start clandestinely supporting right-wing yahoos in Japan, who are already pretty vocal. We need to help them shake the tree a little harder. Whenever Japan and the "n-word" appear in the same sentence, the Chinese become very, very concerned.

Those right-wing yahoos are insufferable. Also, don't they have like less than 1% support? Anyway, perhaps this tree does need shaken harder, but aren't the NKers doing this well enough?

As an aside, do the majority of Japanese really support nukes, if there were no pressing threat from NK?