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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:29
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Well some of NDs strategy looks okay - the temporary fort to act as a base for the assault against Zaragoza isn't a bad idea, although in practice I don't think it is going to make a lot of difference. They've split their ansars up, which is good. By the looks of the it Zaragoza stack could be entirely slow movers - can we get info from RP on stack compositions. The few Ansars heading to Vigo are good - not enough to guarantee taking the city, but enough to weaken their main stack a bit more.
I guess that they have about 7 ansars in Leon - the defenses were two fortified vet pikes and one unfortified elite sword IIRC, with no walls - probable losses taking the city are 1 ansar killed, 1 retreated on 1 hp, 3 injured but victorious. Two ansars are headed for Vigo, leaving 3 healthy ansars in Leon, and at least two turns wait to quell the resistors and heal the injured troops (come to think of it, 3 of the injured ansars are outside Leon, necessarily, if one retreated, and are on the fog of war tile adjacent to the town. Leon itself therefore contains on average 3 healthy ansars and 1 injured one. With 2 defence and no healing while the town is in resistance, that might be worth a counterattack by RP, if they can spare the troops (MI don't contribute much to defence beyond numbers after all).
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:29
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Did we get pics after movement, or are they on Togas' website?
(BTW, that would kill Shiber, wouldn't it? To put that stuff on a geocities page, talk about unsecured!)
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Aeson
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orangesoda
Nov 2001
time: 22:29
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If they do go for Z, they probably take it. It also will pretty much end their offensive (they take Vigo too). I can't see how the 2 Vet Pikes from P would have helped anything other than giving ND shots at 2 Pikes at the best percentages possible for ND. No reason to wait for a Pike to get into a size 7 city with walls and fortify before killing it. They would open their Ansars they used up for counter attacks, but a dead Pike, uncovered RP Med Inf (or 2 if ND retreats), and dead ND Ansar is worth more to ND than an alive RP Pike and Med Inf (or two) in Z and an alive ND Ansar.
I think it would have been suiciding 2 Pikes.
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While the averages Vulture points out are correct, the unit counts aren't. RP had a Reg Pike in Leon (it may have been Vet, but I think they sent a Reg from Z and kept all the Vets in Z), and the Elite Sword. Neither was fortified as Leon had no units in it at the start of the turn. There was a Reg Pike at Santiago 6 they had to go through crossing the river, and a Reg Med Inf at Santiago 2. Neither fortified.
(from ND's perspective)
S2 odds: 87%
S4 odds: 65%
L(P) odds: 75%
L(S) odds: 70%
It looks pretty clear that the Reg Med Inf at S2 was killed by the injured Vet Ansar. The Elite Ansar looks to be new, as it couldn't have won a fight and still got to that position while the Vet Ansar had anything to fight and get to that position. The Elite could have been the Ansar they used to capture Santiago though. Another possibility is that the injured Vet was the unit which killed the Pike in the river crossing, and the Elite was upgraded while losing no hp's while fighting the Reg Med Inf. It doesn't make much sense though, as you'd expect the injured Ansar to be in Santiago, and the full health Ansar that took Santiago to help cover the Elite.
So I think we are looking at at least 11 Ansars.
Given the 4 fights at 65-87% odds each fight, expected should be 1 Ansar killed or retreated, 4 at various states of injured, 2 of which couldn't have reached Leon, and one of which is at S2.
If ND only has 11 Ansars in the theater, that would mean:
2 Ansars at S2, 1 wounded.
2 Ansars at L7 or further back, wounded.
6 Ansars in L, 1 wounded.
1 Ansar either took S, or if the Elite did, is in L.
It's a rather rough estimate, but I would have expected ND to have 4-5 Ansars we haven't seen. So 3-4 more could possibly have joined the ones in Leon without us seeing them. 7-11 Ansars in Leon, only 1 which would be wounded.
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24-07-2003 08:09
J/K good work. They will meet their deaths either there or pamplona, matters not.
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