29-07-2003 20:39									#31
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Keep in mind that retreating riders could end up on mountains far enough away that only our knights could get to them. If they see that they're losing and keep part of their stack healthy, retreating knights get to live to fight another day and there's probably not a lot we can do about it. Under such circumstances, I'm a lot less unhappy about using knights rather than pikes to defend than I would be more normally.

	29-07-2003 20:40									#32
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If we can persuade them to wait a turn, their average losses go up to 6.9, while ours go down to 5.1 (2 retreats again). That means they lose over 200 shields worth of units more than we do (note edit in my previous post estimating shield losses if they attack immediately). And we have some uninjured knights and MI to try and finish off wounded riders if any are left within reach, although they'll probably be back on the mountains.

	29-07-2003 20:50									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Very true. Delay helps us from a tactical perspective in Toledo. It may hurt us, however, from a strategic perspective re: RP vs. ND.

Agreed. It really depends on the RNG. In a major GoW attack, odds would probably be about 50-50 whether the fortification bonus would cause us to end up with one more unit and them with one fewer or not. How much that's worth from a strategic perspective is debatable.

By the way, if GoW plays it smart and fortifies three riders on a mountain to protect retreating units, we won't be able to completely smash their offensive in the battle for Toledo. On the other hand, if they get hurt badly enough and we still have units to spare, they just might sue for peace.

	29-07-2003 20:52									#34
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Vulture, are your calculations taking our four cats into account?

	29-07-2003 20:58									#35
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay Agreed. It really depends on the RNG. In a major GoW attack, odds would probably be about 50-50 whether the fortification bonus would cause us to end up with one more unit and them with one fewer or not. How much that's worth from a strategic perspective is debatable.

As far as I can tell, it saves us 0.9 units on average (40% chance of same losses, 40% chance we lose 1 less, 20% chance we save 2 or more units), and costs GoW 0.6 units (less change their due to retreat chances of course). It's not a huge difference - Nathan's estimate is quite close really

	29-07-2003 20:59									#36
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Yes, cats are included. Approximately (I'm assuming a 50% success rate for defensive cat fire).

	29-07-2003 21:06									#37
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quote: Originally posted by vulture As far as I can tell, it saves us 0.9 units on average (40% chance of same losses, 40% chance we lose 1 less, 20% chance we save 2 or more units), and costs GoW 0.6 units (less change their due to retreat chances of course). It's not a huge difference - Nathan's estimate is quite close really

And that's assuming GoW attacks with all 14 units, right? I'm thinking there's a good chance they won't do that when they see how well-defended the city is and start worrying about possible counterattacks against their wounded, and took that into account in my estimate.

I'd really hoped the odds would be more in our favor, though.

	29-07-2003 21:15									#38
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Nathan,

Do you think it might be worth it to park a knight on the mountain & fortify it? edit: ****, we don't have time to fortify, do we?

It would be a 6.75 defens(edit: 6 defense), from which Riders cannot retreat. I bet they would leave it the hell alone... and if they didn't, good for us.

Whatcha think?

-Arrian

	29-07-2003 21:29									#39
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Actually, we can send one of the knights that will reach Toledo just in time to that mountain instead, and then he'll have time to fortify. We can send more than one knight, if we're feeling lucky.

	29-07-2003 21:31									#40
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A knight fortified on a hill against a rider has a 76.1% chance of defending against the first rider that attacks. That's much better than inside the city.
I suggest to park one knight on that mountain. It will give GoW a choice - either move there, but probably lose a rider and have another wounded afterwards, or move somewhere less favorable.

	29-07-2003 21:39									#41
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We ask for one of RP's workers to build an outpost on the mountain.

	29-07-2003 21:39									#42
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I think of it as more an opportunity to just bypass the public drama about the NAP. If GoW hesitates a turn or two, great, we take a bit fewer losses and can rush another Pike in Toledo. If they hesitate 3+ turns, they become all but insignificant. If GoW starts seeing red, great, they'll lose their stack on Toledo. I don't see it hurting us in any way to try.

If we are going to send something, it needs to be very soon.

	29-07-2003 21:41									#43
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agree Aeson. The discussion is drifting... I vote to send the thing, possibly adjusted to not give them any 'proof' we're provoking them.

DeepO

	29-07-2003 21:45									#44
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How about 2-3 Knights? That would leave us with 7 in the city, and probably result in 2-3 extra fights where Med Inf are defending. Given the defense:shield ratio, having the Med Inf defend isn't that bad a deal. How would only having 6 Knights in Toledo affect our odds vulture?

The other idea would be to send 2-3 Knights W to help RP deal with ND. It sounds like they will lose Z (they are out of Pikes, and at least 7 Ansars survived), but between us we could counter with 5-6 Knights, which should be enough to retake the city and kill off the rest of the Ansars.

	29-07-2003 22:14									#45
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quote: Glory of War, The rantings of an insane man about broken treaties holds no water. The fact remains that GS has not acted against GoW. GoW is now demanding that GS honor not only it's agreements with GoW, but GoW's agreements to ND? This is completely unacceptable. GS cannot be held responsible for the agreements that GoW enters into, or GoW's (in)ability to honor those agreements. GS does not exist to facillitate GoW's military ambitions at the cost of GS' wellbeing, and neither does the NAP. The NAP is still in effect in GS' estimation. It becomes clear the NAP is not what GoW wishes, and that it will not keep GoW from further threatening GS cities. Both parties signed an agreement without fully understanding the limitations it would place on them in the very near future. GS has hoped that both teams could find a way to honor the NAP in light of these unforseen events, but realizes the difficulty of the situation GoW now finds itself in. GS wishes to help rectify this situation. To allow GoW to keep their honor intact, and prevent the spectacle of uninformed opinion that public debates become. GS offers to agree to a mutual cancellation of the NAP if GoW reciprocates. GS asks one condition, a single turn of respite from being attacked by GoW or having GoW units moved further into (or through) GS territory. GoW will receive the same guarantees, that GS will not attack GoW and will respect GoW's borders for the duration of the cease fire. This is an offer that GoW may retain it's honor, while still having full right to act against GS to fulfill contracts. The single turn cease fire item may be negotiated, or others added, but the offer is off the table if GoW were to attack GS or move further into (or through) GS territory before an agreement is reached. That is all, Gathering Storm

	29-07-2003 22:28									#46
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I like it... and as I won't be around much longer today, you can send it for me. Maybe best to wait for nye, as he asked to keep on top of the GoW diplo, but in case he doesn't show fast, we have to move forward.

DeepO

	29-07-2003 22:41									#48
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Oh, and let's put 2 knights on the mountain.

-Arrian

	29-07-2003 22:52									#49
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AND A WORKER!!!

	29-07-2003 22:52									#50
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I vote for one knight. If we put two knights on that mountain, that's just too much of a price to pay for GoW and they'll forget about the mountain. But if we put just one knight, I think we'll make more use out of him if GoW attacks him on the mountain than if GoW attacks him inside Toledo. More cost-effective, I think.

	29-07-2003 23:02									#51
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I did a little rearranging and rewording, mostly for grammatical purposes. The words, "The single turn cease fire item may be negotiated, or others added," are unclear enough in their meaning that I was afraid to try to reword them; I can get a general idea, but not an exact meaning.

quote: Glory of War, The rantings of an insane man about broken treaties holds no water. The fact remains that GS has not acted against GoW. GoW is now demanding that GS honor not only it's agreements with GoW, but GoW's agreements to ND? This is completely unacceptable. GS cannot be held responsible for the agreements that GoW enters into, or GoW's (in)ability to honor those agreements. GS does not exist to facillitate GoW's military ambitions at the cost of GS' wellbeing, and neither does the NAP. The NAP is still in effect in GS' estimation. It becomes clear the NAP is not what GoW wishes, and that it will not keep GoW from further threatening GS cities. Both parties signed an agreement without fully understanding the limitations it would place on them in the very near future. GS has hoped that both teams could find a way to honor the NAP in light of these unforseen events, but realizes the difficulty of the situation GoW now finds itself in. GS wishes to help rectify this situation. To allow GoW to keep their honor intact, and prevent the spectacle of uninformed opinion that public debates become, GS offers to agree to a mutual cancellation of the NAP if GoW reciprocates. GS asks one condition, a single turn of respite from being attacked by GoW or having GoW units moved further into (or through) GS territory. GoW will receive the same guarantees, that GS will not attack GoW and will respect GoW's borders for the duration of the cease fire. This is an offer that will allow GoW to retain it's honor while still having full right to act against GS to fulfill its contracts. The single turn cease fire item may be negotiated, or others added, but the offer is off the table if GoW were to attack GS or move further into (or through) GS territory before an agreement is reached. That is all,

	29-07-2003 23:09									#52
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Sorry Nathan, I sent the previous message to UnO, GF, and MZ before seeing your post.

	29-07-2003 23:14									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Oh, and let's put 2 knights on the mountain.

"the" mountain? Riders can move down off a mountain onto grassland, attack, and move off the grassland back onto a mountain in a single turn. If I recall correctly, three separate mountain tiles, including the one north of Toledo that a ND MedInf ended last turn on (which also happens to be outside our borders), could serve as the starting and ending point of such a maneuver. If GoW ends their turn on any of them, blocking an advance-attack-withdraw combination will not be possible.

By the way, for a cease-fire to do any good with respect to that northern mountain, assuming ND got out of GoW's way, it would have to last through GoW's next turn, not just through their current one, if I'm remembering correctly that that mountain is reachable from GoW's current location. (Note that I don't have a map in front of me at present.)

	29-07-2003 23:29									#54
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GS policy is not supposed to be set in less than a quarter of a day by whoever happens to be reading our boards at the time.

Aeson, please send them another note letting them know that you exceeded your authority and that while GS will probably extend them an offer the same as or similar to what you just sent, more time will be needed to ensure that the entire team has a reasonable opportunity to express opinions. Edit: In the meantime, if they have any thoughts on the matter, we would be happy to hear them.

	29-07-2003 23:36									#55
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We can cancel the message if it wasn't read yet (via message tracking), but you'd better do it quickly.

	29-07-2003 23:39									#56
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GF has read and responded (in a personal manner) already.

	29-07-2003 23:46									#57
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quote: Originally posted by nbarclay GS policy is not supposed to be set in less than a quarter of a day by whoever happens to be reading our boards at the time.

A concensus isn't always possible. I think we did OK this time - enough people got to comment about this before the message was sent. These people are (please correct me if I'm wrong): Theseus, Arrian, DeepO, Aeson, Vulture and myself. Out of our current roster of active members, the people who were not able to comment on this matter were NYE, Octavian X, Sleepy and Sir Ralph (who has been the most infrequent poster in recent weeks, I believe; no offense meant or anything). (I excluded you from both lists because I'm unclear about whether you feel that you did or did not get a chance to give your input)
Of course having a concensus over matters is always preferable, but sometimes you can't work things out this way. Observe what happened yesterday - we could not get our act sorted in time to reply to UnO's PM before Ghengis sent his. Had we been able to communicate our feelings in time, the current situation might have been better. But the bottom line is, most of us agreed that silence would not be the appropriate answer to UnO's PM, but since we couldn't work out a PM in time, we ended up delivering just that.

	29-07-2003 23:51									#58
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I think most of our active members commented, and I think the note was fine.

What is it that we're really going to change, Nathan?

-Arrian

	29-07-2003 23:52									#59
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quote: GF has read and responded (in a personal manner)

Was it a "I got your note" or was it more than that?

-Arrian

	30-07-2003 00:12									#60
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It was... expected.