04-08-2003 10:02									#31
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quote: Originally posted by Rufus T. Firefly It won't be Rice; NSA's a much better gig than State, especially for a policy wonk like her. It won't be Wolfowitz, either; no diplomatic credentials. You want your blood to run cold? To wake up screaming every night between now and Jan. 2005? It'll be Elliot F*cking Abrams. You read it here first.

NSA is run by a 3 star uniform IIRC.

	04-08-2003 10:07									#32
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Sava -

quote: and any reasonable human being with a conscience.

Do you have something to back that up? If you're going to badmouth him, at least make it more than an ad hominem.

	04-08-2003 10:11									#33
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quote: NSA is run by a 3 star uniform IIRC.

I think he meant National Security Advisor rather than National Security Agency.

	04-08-2003 10:13									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander NSA is run by a 3 star uniform IIRC.

My bad. You're right: a Lt. General named Michael Hayden, who must be the least-visible NSA chief since the Johnson administration. Rice is Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs -- though she seems to be playing the role played by such NSA chiefs as Sandy Berger, Robert McFarlane, and Henry the K.

But it still won't be Rice.

	04-08-2003 10:21									#35
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quote: The problem with finding someone for the head of the CIA who'd be able push HumInt over Signals Intellignce successfully.

Which is a real challenge, since we haven't done jack squat on human intelligence for decades.

	04-08-2003 10:24									#36
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Which is a real challenge, since we haven't done jack squat on human intelligence for decades.

Can we outsource the position to someone more responsible, like the British?

	04-08-2003 11:51									#37
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Good news, just wished he'd go immediately.

quote: Originally posted by Sikander He must seem talented only to the French, who managed to trick him into bringing the Iraq mess before the UNSC in order to sabotage the U.S.

Huh? The whole inspections and going to UN farce was mostly done for Tony poodle.

	04-08-2003 12:25									#38
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quote: and more of a house n**** (as you good ol' boys would put it)

in my mind, Sharpton and Jackson are the most prominent house slaves... all they do is whine and get the scraps from the democratic party... Powell, Rice, Thomas, etc. are the tough ass 'field niggas' who rose themselves up and are actually doing things

	04-08-2003 12:40									#39
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Good news, just wished he'd go immediately. Huh? The whole inspections and going to UN farce was mostly done for Tony poodle.

But Powell was able to sell it to a reluctant administration when he was assured of support by the French. Immediately afterward he was presented with a united front against the operation by the French and Germans. The "compromise" position was to inspect until summer while American troops "cooled" their heals in Kuwait. If we wished to launch our attack in the summer in full mop gear then, perhaps...

	04-08-2003 12:42									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch Can we outsource the position to someone more responsible, like the British?

Bond. James Bond.

	04-08-2003 12:50									#41
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"But Powell was able to sell it to a reluctant administration when he was assured of support by the French."

Support for Iraqi disarmament, not for the conquest of Iraq. The French only played on the Bush admin's excuse for their war.

"Immediately afterward he was presented with a united front against the operation by the French and Germans."

If the Bush admin hadn't been so hellbent on having their war now and without regard to the interests of other states, it would have been no big problem to get their support.

	04-08-2003 13:04									#42
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "But Powell was able to sell it to a reluctant administration when he was assured of support by the French." Support for Iraqi disarmament, not for the conquest of Iraq. The French only played on the Bush admin's excuse for their war. "Immediately afterward he was presented with a united front against the operation by the French and Germans." If the Bush admin hadn't been so hellbent on having their war now and without regard to the interests of other states, it would have been no big problem to get their support.

Perhaps. Certainly the administration plunged forward with war preparations with no intention of asking permission. Then they had second thoughts and shuffled their feet indecisively. Blair and Powell wanted to go to the U.N., the administration hawks did not, and I'll bet that Bush was on the side of the hawks initially. There was a lot of pressure applied by Blair, Powell and Bush Sr. and his cronies to go to the U.N. Finally they did so, sullenly and without good preparation.

The biggest weakness IMO in this administration's foreign policy team has been that they haven't had a professional diplomat in the senior ranks of the team. They are loaded with strategists, a general etc., but no one sure-footed enough to reliably gauge foreign opinion, much less shape it subtly. With a president like Bush they need all the help they can get. Powell is trusted here and abroad, but that isn't this administration's problem really. Bush pretty much does what he says he will do, so diplomatic credibility is actually pretty good. But reading the conference table before the conference and stacking the deck in our favor before hand are arts that seem to have been forgotten.

	04-08-2003 13:11									#43
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"There was a lot of pressure applied by Blair, Powell and Bush Sr. and his cronies to go to the U.N. Finally they did so, sullenly and without good preparation."

That would have been little problem if they had been ready to accept a no-war outcome. As they weren't, the whole exercise was quite silly.

"Bush pretty much does what he says he will do, so diplomatic credibility is actually pretty good."

Very mixed. He does what he wants to do, he does not what he only says for political reasons. He's very reliable on wars and tax cuts, just hot air on things like rebuilding Afghanistan, Iraqi self rule, alternative climate protection, internal security etc etc.

	04-08-2003 13:16									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander I like the man too, but just haven't seen much performance from him. Arguably there has never been a Secretary of State who has managed to preside over such a loss of international prestige as Colin Powell. I don't think it is all his fault either, but a great Secretary of State would be able to stick it to the enemy and make them like it.

IIUC, Powell opposed the neocon's wet dream in Iraq and pushed for the UN episode. In the end, as the neocons were getting impatient, they decided to attack no matter what and gave some time for Powell to give excuses to the UN in order to get its agreement.
The gunghoness of the US, incarnated by Dubya's speeches and fueled by the Wolfowitzes, is the source of the immense resentment towards the US right now. Basically, Bush and Wolfy gave the whole world the finger, and asked Powell to justify it in front of the world.

Newsflash: the resentment towards the US is a popular sentiment which focuses on the individual of George W Bush. Foreigners care very little of Powell and what he can say. In these circumstances, it is hard to imagine how Powell could win the hearts of foreign people as he's never displayed on foreign TV when he tries to correct some W's blunder.
The only time Powell really went to the spotlight (except during his WW1 days) was when he presented his unconvincing "evidence" to the UN. This farce sure didn't help the credibility of the US, but again, I don't think anybody could have done a solid presentation from this mere tape and these outdated pictures.

If the Bushies weren't looking so eagerly for international hatred, and if Powell had more control over what he did, maybe he'd have room to express his talent or lack thereof. But in the Iraqi war and the following worsened relations with other countries, I highly doubt he had any real power of changing things.

	04-08-2003 13:29									#45
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "There was a lot of pressure applied by Blair, Powell and Bush Sr. and his cronies to go to the U.N. Finally they did so, sullenly and without good preparation." That would have been little problem if they had been ready to accept a no-war outcome. As they weren't, the whole exercise was quite silly.

I was against going to the U.N. myself, as our goals (removal of Saddam's regime) were never going to get approved in a way that would keep casualties to a minimum. Bush was against it as were the hawks, but relented after the pressure of among others, Powell. Powell misread the situation, and increased the acrimony considerably by in effect causing a sham hearing.

quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Very mixed. He does what he wants to do, he does not what he only says for political reasons. He's very reliable on wars and tax cuts, just hot air on things like rebuilding Afghanistan, Iraqi self rule, alternative climate protection, internal security etc etc.

This was war.

	04-08-2003 13:35									#46
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"I was against going to the U.N. myself, as our goals (removal of Saddam's regime) were never going to get approved in a way that would keep casualties to a minimum."

Probably, but with a little skill and patience Saddam would have most likely presented his head to the US on a silver plate.

"Powell misread the situation, and increased the acrimony considerably by in effect causing a sham hearing."

The curse of the bad deed.

"This was war."

Uhm... and?

	04-08-2003 13:46									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor IIUC, Powell opposed the neocon's wet dream in Iraq and pushed for the UN episode. In the end, as the neocons were getting impatient, they decided to attack no matter what and gave some time for Powell to give excuses to the UN in order to get its agreement. The gunghoness of the US, incarnated by Dubya's speeches and fueled by the Wolfowitzes, is the source of the immense resentment towards the US right now. Basically, Bush and Wolfy gave the whole world the finger, and asked Powell to justify it in front of the world.

To give a little credit to Bush and Wolfie, they never intended on asking permission in the first place. That was to a large extent Powell's doing. He misread the situation and had to face the music.

Some think that Powell was actually trying to sabotage the whole operation. A lot of people think that he tried his best to sabotage the first gulf war as well, by making very heavy demands for forces. Bush Sr. gave him everything he wanted, and he had no choice but to go forward with it. I'm not sure what the truth is here, but there are quite a few power players from Bush Sr.'s administration who believe this.

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor Newsflash: the resentment towards the US is a popular sentiment which focuses on the individual of George W Bush. Foreigners care very little of Powell and what he can say. In these circumstances, it is hard to imagine how Powell could win the hearts of foreign people as he's never displayed on foreign TV when he tries to correct some W's blunder. The only time Powell really went to the spotlight (except during his WW1 days) was when he presented his unconvincing "evidence" to the UN. This farce sure didn't help the credibility of the US, but again, I don't think anybody could have done a solid presentation from this mere tape and these outdated pictures.

Newsflash: The hatred of Bush in Europe started almost the second he took office (or more likely the second that Bush's strategic vision, the reduction of the importance of Europe in American foreign policy became known), and was in large part the product of an orchestrated campaign by several governments for reasons of their own. The fact that a lot of Europeans disliked Bush for their own reasons was as much a happy coincidence as a sign that government was responsive to the wishes of its people.

quote: Originally posted by Spiffor If the Bushies weren't looking so eagerly for international hatred, and if Powell had more control over what he did, maybe he'd have room to express his talent or lack thereof. But in the Iraqi war and the following worsened relations with other countries, I highly doubt he had any real power of changing things.

Powell was unfortunate in that he was never an important part of the policy formulation team. But he took the job, and certainly isn't the first Secretary of State to be tasked with being more or less a Foreign Press Secratary. I feel for him, but I can't say that he's really done the job all that well. Perhaps history will vindicate him and I'll eat my words, but with the information available to me today I think he's done rather poorly.

	04-08-2003 13:55									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Sikander Newsflash: The hatred of Bush in Europe started almost the second he took office (or more likely the second that Bush's strategic vision, the reduction of the importance of Europe in American foreign policy became known), and was in large part the product of an orchestrated campaign by several governments for reasons of their own. The fact that a lot of Europeans disliked Bush for their own reasons was as much a happy coincidence as a sign that government was responsive to the wishes of its people.

The "reduction of the importance of Europe in American foreign policy" is mostly a problem for Blair, not for the french or germans, I'd say it would have been quite welcome by the french. That has little if anything to do with it. At first he was mostly seen as a ridiculous figure, enforced by the Florida election farce.

Also I'm not aware of any "orchestrated campaign". Who orchestrated what?

	04-08-2003 16:15									#49
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quote: Arguably there has never been a Secretary of State who has managed to preside over such a loss of international prestige as Colin Powell.

Absolutely agree.

Once the Taliban were gone, was there anyone in the world easier to build a coalition against than Saddam Hussein? C'mon, even bin Laden didn't like him!

Yet, despite that, the US managed to end up going it alone, against popular world opinion! Now that's a world-class diplomatic f*ck-up.

	04-08-2003 16:53									#50
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Powell is an admitted pacifist. The comments above on Guld War I are very true. Powell argued against that war as he argued against GW II. A competent Sec Of State should be neithier pacifist or hawkish. He/She should be pragmatic and visionary. Powell has never demonstrated an ability to put forth a long range vision of foriegn policy. You may not like Bush's vision, but at least he has one. Without this vision, it is impossible for any SoS to gain world opinion backing. People can determine what Powell is against, but no one knows what he is for. He is an amiable bureaucrat with the ability to lead, but not inspire.

Someone floated the name of Fred Thompson. I think he would be an excellent choice for SoS. Every project he managed in the Senate got fairly broad (for this day and age) bi-partisan support. He is a real leader and would have the ability to inspire confidence in our government from foriegn leaders. Something that is badly needed at State.

	04-08-2003 19:09									#51
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Powell remains very popular poltiically at home, and that is what Bush needs most. Nobody knows who the hell Wolfie is realy (the electorate), and given his foot in mouth disease, it would be easy for dems. to deep six him.

This will lose Bush votes come 2004..always a good thing.

	04-08-2003 19:16									#52
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quote: To give a little credit to Bush and Wolfie, they never intended on asking permission in the first place. That was to a large extent Powell's doing. He misread the situation and had to face the music.

I think it was mostly Blair's misreading of the French on this one. Sure, Powell might have been an enabler, but Bush felt obliged to follow Blair's lead on the UN.

Cheney, Rumsfeld and the neocons have their share of blame on this as well. Even though they didn't want to do it, they should have fallen in line better behind Powell once Bush made the decision to follow Blair in the UN route. They were moping fairly openly. Bad form, at least.

quote: Once the Taliban were gone, was there anyone in the world easier to build a coalition against than Saddam Hussein?

Actually, I think it was pretty tough. Clinton and Blair tried and failed to do it in '98, with the dissenters being the same culprits (except Germany was new to the list this time).

That's why I'm very forgiving of Bush's team. I don't buy for a moment that Bush has much impact on anti-Americanism. It's as if he's being told to answer for all of the history up to this time. Rather, I think this anti-Americanism is built into the cake of how our world works right now, especially considering the things that are important to the American electorate as opposed to Europe's electorate. It has been that way for a decade.

	04-08-2003 19:20									#53
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i feel sorry for powell. rumsfeld seems to have all but taken over the important parts of his job.

	04-08-2003 19:23									#54
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"Clinton and Blair tried and failed to do it in '98"

Failed at what?

"I think this anti-Americanism is built into the cake"

Disagreement is not anti-american. But yes, I think it's hopeless.

	04-08-2003 19:30									#55
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quote: Failed at what?

Building a coalition to oust Hussein. When Clinton and Blair couldn't build the coalition, we rather pointlessly bombed the country for four days. Don't you remember??!!

quote: Disagreement is not anti-whatever.

While true, there's a divergence of views on some issues that antagonize Europe. For Europe, these include climate change, war crimes tribunal, military posture, missile defense, and the death penalty. It doesn't matter whether Bush or somebody else is in office. We would have had similar policies on these issues, because that's where the electorate is. Europe would have felt antagonized eventually, one way or another.

	04-08-2003 19:33									#56
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"Building a coalition to oust Hussein."

You really think Clinton wanted that?

"While true, there's a divergence of views on some issues that antagonize Europe."

And you are not antagonized about them? It takes two to tango.

"It doesn't matter whether Bush or somebody else is in office."

It does matter because his extremism and arrogance make the perfect lightning rod.

	04-08-2003 19:42									#57
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quote: You really think Clinton wanted that?

Yes. He and several people in his government have subsequently said that's what they wanted.

quote: And you are not antagonized about them? It takes two to tango.

Not really. There's probably more anti-German feeling in the UK than in the US, for instance. Generally, Americans don't care much or think much about Europe.

quote: It does matter because his arrogance makes the perfect lightning rod.

You say that he is arrogant because of issues, x, y, and z. I'm obliged to inform you that any other American president would have given you the same, as pointed out above.

	04-08-2003 19:46									#58
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"Yes. He and several people in his government have subsequently said that's what they wanted."

Hey, what happened to the Rep line that the Clintonites always lie?

"Not really. There's probably more anti-German feeling in the UK than in the US, for instance. Generally, Americans don't care much or think much about Europe."

Seeing the anti-french hysteria in certain media, I doubt that.

"You say that he is arrogant because of issues, x, y, and z."

No that's a matter of style.

"I'm obliged to inform you that any other American president would have given you the same, as pointed out above."

Depends.

war crimes tribunal - don't think so
military posture - depends further on the issue
missile defense - rightwing pet ptoject
death penalty - yes

But who cares, let's just get rid of each other.

	04-08-2003 19:50									#59
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quote: Originally posted by DanS You say that he is arrogant because of issues, x, y, and z. I'm obliged to inform you that any other American president would have given you the same, as pointed out above.

Now that is the Question.
Would have another President shown the same Unilateralism, concerning the Points you mentioned above?

It canīt be proven, as it was Bush, who was declared the winner of the election.
But I doubt so. I think another President might have been more open to compromises in some of those points especially Environment, World Court and Missile Defence )

	04-08-2003 19:53									#60
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quote: war crimes tribunal - don't think so

It would never have been ratified. It was a Clinton specialty of signing it, knowing full well it would never be ratified by Senate.

quote: military posture - depends further on the issue

There was broad support in the States for modest increases in defense spending (to 3.5% - 4% of GDP). Europe has little stomach for any defense spending.

quote: missile defense - rightwing pet ptoject

Which is why it was strongly supported by Clinton?