16-08-2003 01:38									#31
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It's all about risk and putting measurements to the amount of risk and the possible outcomes is the name of the game.

I still think it's our best bet to go with one suicide Galley. I feel that our efforts to try and deny GCA an Iron resource would be thwarted by GCA. I do believe we have a 50% chance at denying them Horses for a short time and a 100% chance at denying them a Luxery.

	16-08-2003 03:10									#32
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BigFree, how much of their forces get tied up in holding 3 cities, iron, their only horse, and a couple of luxuries that are all vulnerable to landings? Any that they divert to those tasks will be diverted from the path of the Army Groups heading down the highway towards Catchopolis.

To make them divert significant forces, they have to face a credible threat. Those two swords could well save far more in mercs and MIs that face weaker resistance. I think the 2 swords are a good plan, regardless of whether we get the iron or not.

	16-08-2003 04:55									#33
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I disagree that the Swords will be effective. All it takes for GCA to do is to throw one unit on top of the Iron and our plan is down the drain concerning the Iron. We cannot approach the Iron without them seeing our approach.

We might approach with 2 MI's and 2 NM's and lnad on ewither the Horses or on the hill next to both the horse and the Iron, and then tie up a lot of their forces this way. They will try to protect both the Horse and the Iron.

Wow, that's a really good idea. We just send 4 units to that hill and threaten 2 of their resouces with one move.

	16-08-2003 05:05									#34
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BF, the galley and 1 of the 2 swords cannot get home in time to help in confronting GCA from the front.

They can force GCA to divert forces from the front. That is how they can be useful to us. Instead of killing units as part of AGA, they can distract units from facing AGA. That should give AGA a better chance at success.

btw, you are incorrect that they can see our approach. As of now we can start DDay in the FoW and land before they know the galley is there... if it is not spotted by units outside of their cities, or a new city on the south coast. Even if they are spotted, tying up 4 or 5 or 6 extra GCA units would be contributing a great deal to the war.

You have been asking how that galley and those units can help the war. Well, this plan shows you.

	16-08-2003 05:23									#35
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Just BTW... speaking of tying GCA units up... what about sending BOTH our galleys to the GCA's South coast so that they DO see them - but land nothing, at least not immediately. Perhaps sailing back and forth for a moment... will they be daring enough to completely ignore two galleys they know nothing about (we may even rename PoA to make it look like a different galley than the one that sailed around their empire some time ago)?

I would imagine they would start hurrying their units to protect all kinds of valuable resources threatened by up to 4 units that MIGHT land out of those two galleys...

	16-08-2003 07:06									#36
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The problem with using them as a distraction:

We will already be engaging their forces by the time we get there. Unless we delay D-Day to let them get back that is.

How likely are they to divert units from dealing with our stack of doom to deal with 2 galleys and 2 swords which can at worse do some resource denial and pillaging? Even if we lead them to believe its 4 units, would they pull back any signicant forces from the front lines to deal with it?

I don't think its very likely that the galleys can have any signicant impact in the war after its begun. But its also not super likely they will survive the oceans, so either way is a crap shoot really.

	16-08-2003 07:39									#37
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Th galleys can get to the GCA iron prior to the optimal attack date. PoA is currently 13 turns to GCA Iron 3 (adjacent to it). Expedition is about the same.

The optimal attack date Trip and I have both been using is 15 turns. I think we can push to 15 turns from a turn or two ago. That still leaves PoA and Expedition in range.

	16-08-2003 12:17									#38
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I guess we can get by, just barely, if they have no units outside or do not build another city in the next 15 turns anywhere in the south region....They might even see us coming up the coast from the SW of BoP near CFC's claimed terr. But that is a risk we have to take. Plus they won't know we are hostile at that point. We can say we are scouting more carefully using the 'fortify trick to find possible crossings to the other landmass or to islands.

I was talking to Trip about the possibility of delaying our D-Day by a few turns to allow Hispanica to build another Galley (this includes using both chops for Hispanica's Temple) then loading that one up with NM's and sending towards GCA. But, they would see that Galley unless we sent it all the way around the continent. The extra 5-6 turns would allow for two NM's and two or three MI's to be built for our war effort.

So, what you are proposing is to use one Galley, with 2 Swords on it, to land on GCA's Iron on D-Day? Tell me this: would you not have already planted a unit on top of that Iron and/or built a road to the other Iron that is 7-7-7 from Catchopolis? If we follow your plan we may end up just landing next to the Iron, on the Hill and threatening the Iron/Horses on the next turn. I'm assuming GCA will play it smart and have that Iron covered, in fact I'll bet it's covered right now.

We only need the one Galley to transport the 2 Swords; what do you propose to do with the other?

I say it can still be used now in a suicide mission. In our Republic GA we can surely pump out a Galley or two for continued exploration of the seas around our North and East.

	16-08-2003 13:46									#39
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With galley(s) cruising their waters, they will have to devote more to:

Balance of Power
Dun na Anarchy
Iron
Horses
Silks ?
Server Fire
Algalord

All in their rear. They would need to secure the two resources, and they would need to detail more to hold the cities. Would you not? 2 swords vs 1 spear is a recipe for ruins.

This works best if they DO see us coming, and detail more forces away from the path of AGA. The threat can be more potent than the actuality.

We can use the second galley for exploration. If it is decided that it is better to suicide from some point rather than explore the Northern waters, then so be it. However, discussion will have been served by looking into the possibilities.

	16-08-2003 15:21									#40
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If you think that one Galley will scare them enough to commit that much towards what may be on it, then I'm in favor of sending both of them to pull that duty.

We can put off exploration if the rewards for using the Galleys in the war can be that high. I think they will not commit so much to what may be on them, but I could be wrong, and hopefully so. To bad we couldn't get two more units on those Galleys now...

	16-08-2003 19:49									#41
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Respectfully: remember that we must assume the enemy will do the most intelligent thing possible.

The most intelligent thing would be to IGNORE the marauding pair of swords and let the city garrisons deal with them and focus on the AG's. Therefore, we should expect precisely that. Now the question becomes: Can the damage our 'marauder group' would inflict be worthwhile *for the period of the war* if we assume that it will draw NO units out of the battle with the AG's?

Cutting luxuries is obnoxious to be sure, but in the short term of the war- assuming cities will be solidly garrisoned - will it really harm GCA? Cutting their iron is dubious at best with 3 possible sources for it. What benefit then, assuming GCA is smart and does not harass our marauder force until after the main battle is won or lost, do we genuinely earn from such a move?

If there is a good answer, then let's go for it. If not, then let's consider the open ocean.

Remember: Assume your opponent will do the best possible thing. Myself, I'd ignore the marauders and let them do what damage they may while I moved against the major groups.

	17-08-2003 01:12									#42
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Let's assume your scenario, F-P. There should be 1 spear in Dun na Anarchy, max. Land on iron, kill that spear and rubble one of their good cities. I'd say that would be a good use for 3 units.

Or, do they have garrisons at all? The boats showing up will force them to station something down there, surely.

	17-08-2003 01:38									#43
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They will be fighting a two front war. The possibility that there will be extremely minimal resources devoted to their core area is IMHO very real. Despite this I still think the original vote should be respected and we should sink our possible ace in the northern sea.

	17-08-2003 01:53									#44
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We need only one Galley to send the Swords to their iron.

If we wanted to add forces to that we would have to return to at least the Chokepoint, then back around CFC again, which takes a very long time for those poor slow-moving Galleys. 2 Swords on 1 Galley to stir up trouble the turn we attack + 1 Galley to look for contact is the best use of our naval resources, IMO.

	17-08-2003 02:13									#45
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The same man who was previously saying that any galley action would be worthless if we didn't have at least four is now saying that one is enough and any more would be of little additional value?

	17-08-2003 02:18									#46
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Actually, with the 2 swords in their territory, it would almost become a 3 front war.

Besides, If they do take that city (and I wouldn't raze it), they can heal faster (If they take any damage) and could even sortie out to the Horses and raze that resource, too. But, no matter what, it would cause various levels of disconcern in their team and their team would likely not react as a single person would. We do know that they have several volitile people on their team, so this would possibly make them split thier group decision making processes and would sow confusion, too.

War is made up of several things, not all of them are physical, but also phycological. This move would likely play on their minds more than anything else. And if it comes to the point of beeing a better success than we have even dreamed, then all the more better.

MoI E_T

	17-08-2003 02:20									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Randolph The same man who was previously saying that any galley action would be worthless if we didn't have at least four is now saying that one is enough and any more would be of little additional value?

Trip should really be studing to be a polition, because he does it so well....

E_T

	17-08-2003 02:27									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Randolph The same man who was previously saying that any galley action would be worthless if we didn't have at least four is now saying that one is enough and any more would be of little additional value?

What I said is that with so few Galleys our options are limited and our naval operations won't be nearly as effective as they would be if I could conduct an amphibious invasion "properly." I would prefer to be able to send 5 Galleys with a full stock of units, but with what we have, sending 1 west and using the other to drop those two Swords is the best we can do for now.

After all, have I said anywhere what I wanted to do with the non-suiciding Galley before?

	17-08-2003 02:28									#49
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quote: Originally posted by E_T Trip should really be studing to be a polition, because he does it so well...

Arnie would be proud.

Both of them.

	17-08-2003 02:39									#50
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You can't just keep having polls untill you get the answer you want, hehe.
Let's do it now!

	18-08-2003 12:21									#51
	Re: Suicide Galleys vs further exploration - urgent or further discussion? Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

quote: Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt My question is why so fast? I was away barely a day and a half due to that stupid worm virus, and I come back to be told the issue is almost resolved without my even hearing about it! ... 3 Day poll.

I'm away for 3 days and this poll is already closed! Why not make the polls a little longer? Some of us have busy RLs, you know.

Nothing personal - I have seen 3-day polls elsewhere, and sometimes am disappointed that I can't vote in them. If it's a really urgent thing, fine, but after 3 days you should get the picture from a 5-day poll, too.

	18-08-2003 12:45									#52
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Some more arguments to add to the discussion:

1. Please don't say "we're sending a 30-shield unit into the unknown". The facts are that the Galley is on the other side of the continent, and costs us 1 gold/turn as soon as we're in Republic. We might not be risking 30 shields, but possibly gaining 30 gold we save from upkeep. Also, a 30-shield Galley on the other side of the continent is an entirely different thing than a newly built Galley in one of our harbours.
   
2. If we can possibly threaten GCA's luxuries and/or cities, we definitely should. If we land our swordsman on their coast, they will have to devote a unit (more likely: 2 or more units) to protect their assets. Even if we can't accomplish any conquest with that swordsman, we will have already accomplished the fact that those protecting units are not fighting anywhere else.
   
3. "sailing back and forth", especially when done during the time of our attack, will make them very nervous. They have seen the PoA passing through their territory, but have not seen the Expedition. For all they know, there might be a stack of 10 Swordsmen divided over 5 Galleys knocking at their back door. How would we feel if a GWT Galley would show up near Incensity?
   
4. They do not have Map Making. Therefore, they can't build Galleys to threaten our Galley.
   
5. Someone please post a recent map of the GCA area we can reach with the Galleys. This is something worth looking at!
   edit: Found a map. The sea near the southern choke point seems very nice to sail around in. We'll threaten two cities! Maybe we can even join CFC forces in the area.
   

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 18-08-2003 at 13:52

	18-08-2003 12:49									#53
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quote: Originally posted by Fried-Psitalon Respectfully: remember that we must assume the enemy will do the most intelligent thing possible.

I disagree. If it's more likely that they panic once they see our Galley approaching in the south, we might just as well assume that.

We only have to take into account the possibility that they do the most intelligent thing.