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Donegeal is offline Donegeal
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Question  Old Post 04-09-2003 18:36
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Terrorist Next Attack: When and Where Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Ok, I will openly admidt that I have no sourse of information that I can recall (I just remember reading somethings somewhere), but I have some very bad feelings about one week from today.

Part I: When

I have read that terrorist like to do there attacks on days that have some kind of significance. One week from today, will be the two year "anniversary" of the WTC/Pentagon attacks. If that isn't a significant day, I'm not sure what is. It is for this reason, and this reason alone, that I fear a major terrorist attack is comming.

Why didn't they do it last year? Because they were getting their a$$es kicked all over the place. They couldn't muster any organization.

Why would they do it this year and not next year? Right about now, OBL and virtually every terrorist in the world is in trouble because Bush is swinging his big stick. The terrorists need him gone. As we saw in '01 when the attacks first happened, US patriotism grew tremendously. The USA got aggressive, the citizens (for the most part) and many other countries were in favor of going out and kicking some butt. A year later, that support had waned considerably. With this in mind, if the terriorst were to wait another year for a big attack on the third "anniversary" of 9/11, then I believe we would see the patriotism and support for Bush sore just months before the '04 election. There is no way the terrorist would want him in office for four more years. Now if they attack in a week, on the two year "anniversary", I could see the terrorists surviving another year plus of hunting, but by the time the elections come around again a year later, I do not forsee Bush staying in office. Basicly, if the terrorist attack in a week, it will give the American people some time to "cool down" by the time of the '04 elections.

Part II: Where

Washington and New York got hit in '01. Some might think that hitting in the same sore spot is a good idea. But the US is big. If the terrorist want to really get at America and cause her to fear, they will not go after major cities to get the biggest body counts. They will go after the real population centers of the US. The smaller, central cities. The "Heartland" of the US. Champaign, Little Rock, maybe even smaller. Like cities of 50,000 to 100,000 people. Most of the US population does not live in mega-cities like NY or LA. They live in these smaller cities. When 9/11 first happened, I was not scared that I was going to get attacked because I live in a small city (only 60,000). Now if a were to see a smaller city get hit, then I'd have to rethink my views on where they might strike. I would get scared.

These are just my thoughts, and they have me a bit concerned about next Thursday. What do you guys think?

SlowwHand is offline SlowwHand
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Why does it have to be the USA ?

How's about Montreal ?

Rufus T. Firefly is offline Rufus T. Firefly
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 18:48
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Highly visible target...
Lots of civilian casualties...
Massive symbolic importance...
Relatively lax security...

Disney World.

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 18:50
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I don't think any terrorist would want to attack any country other than the US (and Israel) right now because it would make the "war on terror" a more international deal. I think that there is a lot of people all over the world saying, "Screw America. Let them deal with this on their own!". If Canada got hit, I guess it wouldn't real effect the international out cry much (sorry Canada, I think a lot of people see you as a US state...). Now if England got hit, then the Britts would behind this 100%. I also think it would sway alot of europeans to support it also. Attacking France, Germany or Russia right now would be just plain stupid for the terrorists.

SlowwHand is offline SlowwHand
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Actually, Hollywood or Las Vegas has always seemed like "logical" choices.
The epitome of American Decadence.

Rufus T. Firefly is offline Rufus T. Firefly
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:10
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quote:
Originally posted by SlowwHand
Actually, Hollywood or Las Vegas has always seemed like "logical" choices.
The epitome of American Decadence.


Hollywood is just a seedy part of LA; the film industry hasn't been located there in decades.

Vegas has possibilities though, especially if you want to get the prez to say absurd thing on TV:

"This nation will never rest until it wipes from the earth the scourge of evil that took the lives of so many innocent Americans in the Nudes on Ice attack."

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:11
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Hmmm.... never thought of that. Good point. Vegas would be a BIG target now that you mention it. Hollywood I'm not sold on. In general, people like to watch movies. Hitting Hollywood would be like attacking the entire worlds entertainment (and no, I'm not saying that EVERYONE cares about Hollywood or even that it is the most important place for movies in the world. Its just a big one.) It would have the potential of really pissing movie fans all over the world and drawing some form of international support.

rah is offline rah
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:11
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I doubt terrorists would want to piss off the mob.

SlowwHand is offline SlowwHand
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:15 Visit SlowwHand's homepage!
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Weasal World!

Park Avenue is offline Park Avenue
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:15
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quote:
Attacking France, Germany or Russia right now would be just plain stupid for the terrorists.


Does this suggest it is wise for countries to negotiate with terrorists, as these countries would have thus done implicitly?

Park Avenue is offline Park Avenue
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:16
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The transport infrastructure is every developed countries weak, unobserved/able point.

Rufus T. Firefly is offline Rufus T. Firefly
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:17
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quote:
Originally posted by donegeal
Hmmm.... never thought of that. Good point. Vegas would be a BIG target now that you mention it. Hollywood I'm not sold on. In general, people like to watch movies. Hitting Hollywood would be like attacking the entire worlds entertainment (and no, I'm not saying that EVERYONE cares about Hollywood or even that it is the most important place for movies in the world. Its just a big one.) It would have the potential of really pissing movie fans all over the world and drawing some form of international support.


One more time: Hollywood, the physical place, is NOT where the movie industry is located. There's nothing to attack in Hollywood except hookers and particularly unpleasant taco joints.

SlowwHand is offline SlowwHand
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:19 Visit SlowwHand's homepage!
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It is never wise to negotiate with terrorists of any kind.


NO NEGOTIATIONS!

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:20
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quote:
Originally posted by Park Avenue


Does this suggest it is wise for countries to negotiate with terrorists, as these countries would have thus done implicitly?


No. Not at all. All I'm saying here is if these countries were to get attacked, there would be the large possibility that they would give active support towards the "War on Terrorism" and make it more of an international effort rather than the US running around banging some heads and getting yelled at for it. It could make other countries start to run around and bang heads.

Donegeal is offline Donegeal
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:39
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Hmmm.... no one seems to be argueing about the "when". Yet another bad sign for thursday..

Rufus T. Firefly is offline Rufus T. Firefly
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:47
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quote:
Originally posted by donegeal
Hmmm.... no one seems to be argueing about the "when". Yet another bad sign for thursday..


No way to know. But I think if we can be assured of anything, it's that it WON'T happen on Thursday. September 11 wasn't chosen because it was a date of particular significance, nor was Feb. 26 (the date of the 1993 WTC truck-bombing). That doesn't seem to be the way these folks operate. It'll be just an ordinary day.

Park Avenue is offline Park Avenue
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 19:51
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November 19th, 2003.

Solver is offline Solver
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I do also feel it's highly likely that something will happen next Thursday... or at least try to. I've been reading some intelligence reports lately...

I think that the Hoover building (FBI headquarters) could be quite a target. From what I know, it's in a relatively crowded area, with many buildings around it (unlike the White House), so it's unlikely to see SAM installations around it. And it could do the stuff terrorists want... high symbolic value, high bodycount - besides, it would kill the people that are actually directly a trouble to terrorists. Not to mention all the FBI infrastructural damage...

Japher is offline Japher
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Solver, your half right, what about the Hoover Dam? Seems like the have been practicing, and if they take that Dam out the could destroy a whole grid!

Or, maybe they plan on filling in the Grand Canyon

Solver is offline Solver
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AFAIK, destroying the Hoover Dam wouldn't kill many people at the moment of impact. True, the economic loss would be greater than that if FBI building was destroyed, and probably even greater than after WTC destruction, but terrorists look for body counts.

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It'll just a be a hotel or bar or youth hostel in some Third World country. Islamists are not especially good terrorists; with decent security, soft targets in poor countries are all they can hit.

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  Old Post 04-09-2003 20:52
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I doubt it would be that soon. I have a feeling they might attempt a "decapitation strike", be it Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Blair, the Queen or possibly their families. Try and make it personal, so that the initial response will be brutal and hard, thus recruiting more to their cause.

I personally think London is fairly high on the list of probably targets. Too many high profile targets, and nowhere near the security. Doubt for example that the Houses of Parliament are protected by SAM sites.

Jack_www is offline Jack_www
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  Old Post 04-09-2003 20:53
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I dont think any terrorist is going to attack on the a 9/11, why? Because that is too predictable. They would do it on a day that no one holds any meaing too that day, just a normal day in which nothing big has happened in the past.

It is impossible to predict anther terrorist attack when you lack any knowledge of terrorist. The government with all the intelligence and assest it has in the field still does not know all that it should know, and even the best intelligence organization would also not know everything. So how can you predict were terrorist will strike when you lack even this knowledge.

Also a lot of terrorist are busy in Iraq right now trying to kill US troops. Look at all the stuff they have done so far. It looks as if they are focusing most of their attention to Iraq right now.

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quote:
Originally posted by Solver
AFAIK, destroying the Hoover Dam wouldn't kill many people at the moment of impact. True, the economic loss would be greater than that if FBI building was destroyed, and probably even greater than after WTC destruction, but terrorists look for body counts.


It would be a significant symbolic attack though.

Japher is offline Japher
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It could also open up many easy targets that would then be sitting ducks

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When? Probably December/January, around Christmas and The New Year. When people are more relaxed or on vacation. Also when power is needed to heat homes (though it is more gas that does the heating, but I never said terrorists were smart). Lack of heat would cause people to collect enmasse...

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quote:
It would be a significant symbolic attack though.



Not that much of a world symbolic thing. WTC and FBI are some of American symbols for all of the world, while many Europeans don't even know about the Hoover Dam .

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  Old Post 04-09-2003 21:03
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Anyone see the movie "The Siege"?

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DAVOUT is offline DAVOUT
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I am a bit uncomfortable with this kind of topic : either we repeat things already said or written or described in movies, and it is of limited interest, or we make a really creative brain storming, and it could just help some crazy guy to act.

This is why, although I know the what and where and when, I will not tell you.

 
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