09-09-2003 17:11									#1
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I've brought this up before, but now might be a good time to do it again.

At the moment, we are extremely vulnerable to invasion from Lego. Lego, you might remember, has recently acquired astronomy, and is possibly researching Navigation at the moment. They have time to build up a good store of caravels while they are doing this. So when navigation arrives, they could easily have 10 plus boatloads of caravels ready to go where they are needed.

It's pretty obvious why Lego would want to go and attack someone, so the question is who would they attack?

GoW / ND both are relatively easy pickings for them, but in golden ages, and
with plenty of troops that can get to an invasion point fairly quickly. They could do plenty of damage, and end up in a situation where Bob is (very roughly) evenly split between us, Lego, GoW, ND, RP in the not too distant future.

RP are obviously not much of a target for Lego.

GS - they know we have a large military presence of Bob, and dominate the waterways between us and Bob such that we are unlikely to be worried
about a landing from GoW. If and when we go for the landing in GoW's core, they'll have to guess that pretty much our entire force is away from home. This leaves them with a beautiful opportunity to drop 10 caravels loaded with Numidian Merc and Knights on our shores, and try to rip through our core in very short order. The future in this case could look like ND and GoW sharing Bob, while Lego own Legoland and Stormia (and Vox have Lego Minor, at least for now). If they can manage an FP on Stormia, ND and GoW are facing an unpleasant prospect - being behind in tech and facing an opponent with two large, productive islands, while gunpowder is around so there is little danger of an invasion until cavalry, and not much hope for one after railroads and riflemen.

I.e., if Lego decide to invade us while we are busy on Bob, they could quite
easily lock up the game there and then.

So although we need to commit large numbers of troops to Bob to win this war, we should keep enough in reserve to defend our core at the absolute least. At the end of the day, we can afford to be driven off Bob more than we can afford to lose southern Stormia to Lego in a surprise invasion. And we wouldn't get much notice of an invasion.

NB if Lego get wind of our intention to invade GoW by sea (info leaked through Vox, depending on what we tell them) - I can't see any good reason why they wouldn't put together an invasion fleet ASAP. From their point of view, there doesn't appear to be another course of action offering such nice outcomes.

	09-09-2003 18:25									#2
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It is something to worry about, yeah. Unfortunately, in my opinion, there isn't a helluva lot we can afford to do about it. We are committed over on Bob, and any protection vs. Legoland invasion would require that we hold more troops on Stormia to block the coast.

Maybe we can spare some warriors from our iron-cutting scheme to block the coast around Hurricane and a bit north of that. But I don't see how we can do much more right now. If Legoland hits us, we're screwed.

-Arrian

	09-09-2003 19:41									#3
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Yeah, we can't defend every landing spot on the east and northwest. Just impossible. Hopefully if we can get vox to attack GoW, it would provide some protection for us. We do have a lot of workers, right?

	09-09-2003 20:03									#4
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We'll never have enough troops to block all possible landing sites (although we can block the good ones, obviously), but I do think we need to keep enough pikes and MI (and knights for that matter) around to make a serious dent in any attempted landing. The problem is that that is pretty much an entire expeditionary force. So do we go ahead with our planned attack on GoW in the north, or use those troops to keep our core secure, and delay the
invasion until we can afford another mass upgrade to launch an invasion?

There is the line of thinking that if we get kicked off Bob, we're more or less out of the game anyway, with ND and GoW sharing that continent. In which case, our only hope of winning is to gamble either on Lego leaving us
alone during this war, or on our being able to keep a lrage part of Bob with the forces already there (which I have my doubts about).

BTW I know that human nature is to automatically look for reasons why the current plan is the right one, and then to find those reasons more plausible (blokes, in particular, hate to change plans mid-stream, if you'll forgive the crass generalisation), but please, please can we try and look objectively at which approach gives us the best chance to win the game. Taking the gamble might be the right way to go, but if it is, lets do it for the reason that it is right, not just because it is the current plan.

Vulture, suffering sleep deprivation due to an ill 5 year old...

	09-09-2003 20:29									#5
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I don't see this as being a major risk... a home defense of say, 4 Knights in each of North and South Stormia should be sufficient, and will not be needed for some time yet (i.e., post-GoW invasion).

That's my gut reaction; BUT, keep'em coming, vulture... I am reminded of SR's entreaties for a stronger military once upon a time.

	09-09-2003 21:12									#6
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Seriously defending with ground troops is not an option if we want to make any headway against GoW or ND before Gunpowder kicks in, and GoW begins cranking Riders and Musks, which puts our entire effort in great delay. What we could do is keep some coast guard, to give us some warning, as well as a chance to sink a few... We really can't defend anything and gain ground. Our mistake is that we've waited too long before preparing to land against GoW, and now they have a serious edge.

I do share the opinion that Lego is a big risk right now, and if I were them I would seriously consider invading us, as we're the only real favorites left, besides them of course...

In short, we have to find a cheap way, to protect ourselves, and also work in the diplomatic front, perhaps through a NAP of some sort?

	09-09-2003 21:29									#7
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quote: Originally posted by zeit In short, we have to find a cheap way, to protect ourselves, and also work in the diplomatic front, perhaps through a NAP of some sort?

That's what I was thinking. Or an agreement with lego of some form or kind.

I think thats a job for Vel, if he's around.

	09-09-2003 22:54									#8
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Sure thing! Tell me what you want them to agree to, and I'll give it a go!

-=Vel=-

	09-09-2003 23:04									#9
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The defense against a would-be lego invasion would be to simply cut our iron again the turn it happened and hurl spearmen and their ilk in the way of their very good, but horribly expensive attackers.

How embarassing to lose a cav to spearman fortified on a mountain.

Sure, we'll lose lots of guys that way, but the fact is that in short order we can totally ring the attackers in and pump enough bodies into the line to stall the advance.

Then, when we solve the immediate problem, we do mass upgrades and suddenly we're a whole lot more dangerous to them and their attack force.

	09-09-2003 23:24									#10
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quote: BTW I know that human nature is to automatically look for reasons why the current plan is the right one, and then to find those reasons more plausible (blokes, in particular, hate to change plans mid-stream, if you'll forgive the crass generalisation), but please, please can we try and look objectively at which approach gives us the best chance to win the game. Taking the gamble might be the right way to go, but if it is, lets do it for the reason that it is right, not just because it is the current plan.

Fair enough. But things on Bob have not played themselves out far enough for us to seek an alternative. If we manage to make some headway, we might be able to bring GoW/ND to the negotiating table and work something out. I doubt it, but it's possible. If, on the other hand, we get smacked around, we will then have to withdraw, probably making room for RP in North Stormia. But we haven't had a decisive engagement yet.

I'm not necessarily against changing "the plan" midway. Look at our switchover from being all friendly with GoW and intending to hit RP, to being RP's friend and ally. Though I was uncomfortable with it, I concurred with the decision, because logically it made the most sense to me.

And I'll admit that I'm doing what I often do in Civ: shooting for the moon. I wanna win, and I'm willing to take fairly big risks to do so. Since I do not believe we can prosecute the current war while providing adequate homeland defense to prevent an invasion by Legoland (or destroy such an invasion on the beaches), I'm willing to roll the dice on the war at hand, and simply accept the fact that if Lego comes knocking, we might go down like a house of cards.

Others may disagree, of course. That's just my perspective on the matter. I see our Bobian adventure as a "crossing of the Rubicon" moment. We rolled the dice, bigtime. The result... tough to say just yet.

-Arrian

	09-09-2003 23:55									#11
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I agree with Arrian, we are committed. We should see it through. Either we damage GoW / knock them out, or we lose a sizable army trying.

I also agree with vulture. The back door is wide open, and we should do something about that. The something we do should be diplomatic though, at this point.

	10-09-2003 00:32									#12
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Well....I stand ready to assist, tho, I will tell you guys that I'm on the brink of doing something either TOTALLY insane or absolutely brilliant....haven't quite decided which it is yet....

Yes....having made my second mortgage payment, with the job market sucking wind, Vel is walking away from his cushy job with no prospects for the future lined up.

Steppin' away from the comfy edge on pure faith...I love it!

So...I'll prolly have some free time in the next span of days as the job search machine kicks into high gear!

-=Vel=-

	10-09-2003 02:11									#13
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If I may suggest- marines are a long way off, and there are no Vikings to be seen. If we post fortified boats along the coast and out a little ways in the direction of Lego, we can get what will probably be a 1-turn warning that they are coming, 2 turns if we're very lucky. Provided our entire coastline is roaded, we can then throw up a front of workers and warriors/spears/whatever is around along the area they will try to land.

They'll sail straight in at first, not knowing what we have waiting for them. When they see it, they'll spend the next turn sailing one direction or the other trying to get past the blockade. If we have preparations well in order, we should be able to shift our front to meet their boats and continue to prevent their landing. Eventually, they'll get past our shifting front and/or split up their boats and force us to allow one force on, but anything we do to slow down that assault will buy us time to get more units into position to deal a counterattack on their landing. If we can force them to leak their forces onto our coast one chunk at a time, it'll be that much easier to deal with them - even if we force them to split their forces half and half.

I realize this is a somewhat unorthodox strategy, and it will require a moderate amount of "blocking units" but it IS sound. I've used it with galleys (much easier there, slower sailors) to great effect- there's nothing like hearing someone rant and rave at you because your impis are blocking his force of 40 immortals.

And on another note, could we get a screenshot of the overall map posted every turn, too? It'd be helpful not to have to load PTW every time I wanna think a bit.

	10-09-2003 02:55									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Fried-Psitalon I realize this is a somewhat unorthodox strategy, and it will require a moderate amount of "blocking units" but it IS sound. I've used it with galleys (much easier there, slower sailors) to great effect- there's nothing like hearing someone rant and rave at you because your impis are blocking his force of 40 immortals.

Amen. The trick in this case, IMHO, is to get Lego to declare war on us first, before they land. Then if we can delay their landing for sometime, we can hope the WW will set in. Also, if their caravels end adjacent to the coast, we can bombard with cats and then hope to use our galleys to take out the last hp. I think a rolling defense of cats and warriors (cheap!) with a few galleys would be perfect.

We know that lego has a dearth of luxuries (only one I think) so perhaps they are waiting until they can secure trades with GoW and ND for the southern Bob luxes before hitting us. Losing the lux or two we trade them will hurt quite a bit, otherwise.

	10-09-2003 03:45									#15
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Therein lies the giant's weakness....with only one luxury, they cannot afford a protracted war....groovy....

-=Vel=-

	10-09-2003 04:46									#16
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I would think that WCs would make a stunningly great coastal blocking force.

Great idea, F-P.

Should we consider how to use Vox to enlist Lego? A true Grand Alliance?

OTOH, I still think it very, very possible that Lego is doing what they have always said: building.

	10-09-2003 06:17									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus Should we consider how to use Vox to enlist Lego? A true Grand Alliance?

Its possible that Vel's games with vox might drag lego into the war,as the protector of vox. OTOH, they could think that we were trying to do that on purpose and get pissed.

quote: Originally posted by Theseus OTOH, I still think it very, very possible that Lego is doing what they have always said: building.

Some of the recent things said by lego members would lead me to think that they would do what they have to do militarily. That they could only build up for so long due to their relative isolation. I don't trust them at all, they seem to be opportunists. course, we are too, after all.

	10-09-2003 07:51									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus OTOH, I still think it very, very possible that Lego is doing what they have always said: building.

2 B honest, I bet the odds are at least 5 in 7 that they are building. They have something to prove...Pure builder can easily win.

They are realy doing an apparently good job remaining relatively neutral and isolationist. Sure they are active in diplomacy but that is what can win them the game, quicker. They will wind up in the industrial era quite strong....Lego, with a well balanced defensive army...we would suffer greatly if we ever stepped foot on lego major.

I expect to be safe from Lego while BoB is undecided. If we get too strong on Bob, lego will have that last chance to strike then, or never. Otherwise, we will solidify our gains and they will take off into the industrial era. We will be hard pressed to make up ground. But it is possible.

It seems out of character for Lego to strike untill they build up a massive army AFTER their cities are almost compleatly built up.


Disjunctedly
Mss

	10-09-2003 16:23									#19
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A mobile blocking force of war chariots could do a nice job, although we'd need quite a lot of them. 15 by my reckoning - from the bay near Elipolis, with 3 move caravels, they can reach 17 tiles, 2 of which are cities. 15 units can block this worst case scenario, as long as we road the mountains to allow WC access. If they get Magellans in the near future, we'll need another 4 or 5. WCs should be able to shift up the coast fast enough to keep up with caravels too (1 move units won't in some parts due to the shape of the coastline).

We have to be careful talking to Lego not to give them the idea that we are vulnerable I think. Asking for a NAP might just tell them that we are worried about being attacked by them. I don't know what the best approach would be to convince them that we are capable of beating a good sized force off of our homeland whilst still fighting on Bob, but I think projecting an aura of confidence and power is better than a NAP. But you can't really just contact them to say "By the way, we have a large army ready to take care of any invasion of our homeland. Just so you know..."

	10-09-2003 17:14									#20
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I've just checked our eastern coastline properly, and AFAICS the best positions for boats on the east coast can threated 15 tiles plus 2 cities, so 15 WCs looks like being enough to block landings there. Our worse case on the west coast is better than this, so against a single fleet on one square, 15 is enough to keep us safe, or force the invasion to split into two fleets such that we can only block one of them (halving the invasion force).

The best invasion muster points are Harry's Hideout 33 and HH 34, both of which threaten the same 15 tiles (plus HH and Elipolis).

Our problem then is: they can land half their forces by splitting the fleet. We then have to use all those WCs to hit the force on the ground (since we are relying on those WCs for defense), leaving the other half free to land the following turn somewhere else. So this doesn't really buy us much if our (potential) enemy has more than 5 brain cells to rub together.

We need about 50 units to completely block the east coast. Yeah, right...

Looks like diplomacy is our best hope then.

	10-09-2003 18:14									#21
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Who's on Legoland? Will they be smart enough to assume we are in fact trying to block them and make the split immediately, or will they likely spend one more turn dorking around? If we have the galleys out, that's 1-2 turns warning. If they show up and immediately split, we'll get one more for a total of three. If they fumble it at first and wonder what we're doing, that gives us as many as 4 turns warning if Legoland does everything right. Note that the galley-sentries are a pretty vital part of this plan, though.

Surely we can come up with a moderate response force in that time, if only by switching back to despotism and rushing units in all our towns. That delaying force should be enough to slow down whatever offensive is on while we rush some units back from BoB (wtf kind of name for a continent is that anyhow? I'm not a big fan of lowering the population of every city on the map, but that's better than the alternative.

	10-09-2003 21:11									#22
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Luxary trades are the best bet for keeping them from declaring war. The continual diplomatic contact can help gauge Lego's mood and multiple staggered Lux deals would keep them interested in peace. If they loose 2 or 3 luxes while committing agression, the WW with the loss of lux would hurt them quickly.

I also do not see how they can attack us while we are occupied on Bob and remain neutral. They will, in effect, be coming into the war on the side of GoW and ND.

Maybe we can entice them on to BOB...


Mss

	10-09-2003 21:18									#23
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quote: Originally posted by ManicStarSeed Maybe we can entice them on to BOB... Mss

I do remember that they are building sistine I think right now, that will help them out a bit with the happiness.

regarding enticing them onto bob-

If we can take out part of ND and GoW but get bogged down, perhaps we could try a multi-cultural bob with maybe 5-6 cities of each nation there, and keep it as a demilitarized zone or something. If we can't take all of bob, I would want to have some solution that would keep us on there, and I don't want ND and GoW to have the whole thing to themselves, you know?

	10-09-2003 21:18									#24
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That's essentially the plan I had in my head with Vox.

If we get Vox to attack ND/GoW, they will, of course, hit Vox back, and when they do, Lego will pretty much have no choice but to live up to their earlier obligations to Vox (the promise of protection...made in the public fora), and declare against those who are attacking Vox...which....puts them on our side indirectly.

Occupied with protecting Vox, my thinking is that they'll be unwilling to step far enough away from their "builder stance" to do anything beyond protecting their vassal.

-=Vel=-

	10-09-2003 22:03									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Velociryx That's essentially the plan I had in my head with Vox. ...... Occupied with protecting Vox, my thinking is that they'll be unwilling to step far enough away from their "builder stance" to do anything beyond protecting their vassal. -=Vel=-

I like it and agree. keep them honor bound...

I suspect that they will not be likely to show any aggression unless it is to defend either their allies or long term intrests. That is why I do not think that they will attack unless we get too powerful on BoB. Hopefully, by then we can prepare a defense. I do agree that a galley or two should be posted on our eastern shores however...

Mss

	11-09-2003 19:31									#26
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quote: Originally posted by ManicStarSeed 2 B honest, I bet the odds are at least 5 in 7 that they are building. They have something to prove...Pure builder can easily win. Mss

OK, time for my first one euro's worth.

I know zippety-squit about DG's, MP or the Lego team but I know this: builders wanna build and wanna win by building.

The majority (though not all) of my civving has been is SP Monarch peace-play. By building improvements instead of units, a 'Peace Dividend' arises in the Industrial Era, leading to the ability to adequately defend the infrastructural edge, and to inflict bloody noses or worse on anyone who attacks.

If the Lego players are anything like me, they won't want to attack anyone, but intend to build only towards their space ship. They certainly would be thinking about all those Immortals that were defeated... If their magnanimity towards Vox can get them into trouble (as seems to be the plan here) then well, that's the price for them to pay for being a nice guy interventionist. It sounds an excellent plan, and a great way to exploit their strategic error : they broke rule 1: 'if you want peace, avoid foreign entaglements'.

I haven't seen any map, and I don't know how big they are, but the challenge for the peaceful spaceshipper in SP (which isn't such a challenge) is getting the resources : aluminium, rubber and uranium. The AI will trade you these and lose the game. This obviously won't happen in MP.

What is the assesment for Lego's chances of having all SS resources?

If there is any debate on whether a budget should be assigned to defending a hypothetical Legonian attack, I would argue that if those guys are true builders, the risk of that attack is less than the risk of not being decisive in Bob, where I gather our military rivals lay.

Lego should be diplomatically discouraged from even thinking of attacking us, and if, as is being discussed, Vox can drag them into the Bob wars on our side then the immediate threat would be zero. If our problem is that we have too many units to compete with Lego economically, it might be good to get Lego's unit count up and bank building down.

	11-09-2003 19:43									#27
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus If the Lego players are anything like me, they won't want to attack anyone, but intend to build only towards their space ship. They certainly would be thinking about all those Immortals that were defeated... If their magnanimity towards Vox can get them into trouble (as seems to be the plan here) then well, that's the price for them to pay for being a nice guy interventionist. It sounds an excellent plan, and a great way to exploit their strategic error : they broke rule 1: 'if you want peace, avoid foreign entaglements'.

I will try to dig up some quotes that point away from the pure builder facade.

quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus What is the assesment for Lego's chances of having all SS resources?

They have literally a huge landmass to themselves (and now vox) Just guessing, but I would bet that there would be a slim to none chance of them missing any resource. Its that big, not as big as Bob, but it has lots of various tiles. Lots of jungle, some deserts, some mountains, IIRC.

quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Lego should be diplomatically discouraged from even thinking of attacking us, and if, as is being discussed, Vox can drag them into the Bob wars on our side then the immediate threat would be zero. If our problem is that we have too many units to compete with Lego economically, it might be good to get Lego's unit count up and bank building down.

Agreed. If they don't enter this war, they probably will win via culture or space. That is, unless we smoke Bob and can nearly claim a domination victory. But lego would intervene before that. Frankly, I'm suprised that lego hasn't intervened yet, I thought they would if things were too one-sided. But I guess they figure we still have something up our sleeves (which we do, I guess) plus they have a non agression I thinik with ND till 1000 ad or something.

fun stuff

	15-09-2003 00:16									#28
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel I will try to dig up some quotes that point away from the pure builder facade.

How about "exactly what I would do if being yourself." - from Vondrack to Arrian in the 'Spite & Malice' thread, as Arrian explains the importance of thwarting a 2-civ Bob?

I take your point