11-09-2003 22:50									#61
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But as long as it's sold on the global market then it will lower our prices and they simply MUST sell or they go bankrupt.

	11-09-2003 22:59									#62
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If the US no longer buys from the Saudis, how does that affect global demand and supply?

	11-09-2003 23:03									#63
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As you said China buys from them so China does not buy from someone else. It's all about global supply and as long as the Saudis are selling to someone then global supply is increasing.

	11-09-2003 23:09									#64
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You assume in increase in Saudi output. But we're mostly talking about a change in supply patterns, where (in this example) China and the US switch suppliers.

	11-09-2003 23:17									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin But as long as it's sold on the global market then it will lower our prices and they simply MUST sell or they go bankrupt.

They don't have to sell as much as they do.

	11-09-2003 23:20									#66
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You're right. But I remember reading an article in Forbes earlier this year which said the Saudis are having major budget problems as a result of a population that is mostly under 20, big subisides they put on food & energy, and the falling price of oil. These guys NEED to sell oil to someone.

	11-09-2003 23:24									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin These guys NEED to sell oil to someone.

What about the East Asians ? With the booming economies and the huge population, I suppose their demand for oil is skyrocketing ...

	11-09-2003 23:44									#68
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It doesn't matter if we buy from someone else, the Saudis would stil ultimately gain. It would help, however, if we decreased our use of oil.

	11-09-2003 23:48									#69
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I am agreeing with Ramo? Dear lord the writting must truly be on the wall. We need to find ways to decrease our dependence upon oil, especially foreign oil, and it is clear Bush will not do this.

	11-09-2003 23:56									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin You're right. But I remember reading an article in Forbes earlier this year which said the Saudis are having major budget problems as a result of a population that is mostly under 20, big subisides they put on food & energy, and the falling price of oil. These guys NEED to sell oil to someone.

They surely depend on their oil. But they usually produce 10-15 % of the global output, and have 25 % of the world's reserves. And with spare capacity are the key swing producer. So unless you find a way to reduce global demand by/find alternative sources for 400 million tons per year, you won't but the Saudis dry. What is happening is the opposite, US import needs will grow sharply.

	12-09-2003 00:41									#71
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The Saudi royal family are some of the richest people in the world , yet the people they rule live impoverished. These royals (like leaders in many other Islamic countries) use religion to divert the publics attention onto foreign "enemies" and away from their lack of basic freedoms, services, and sustenance. How long before the people rise up and destroy these royals and seize control of government?

	12-09-2003 01:12									#72
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If you look at the minimum wage thread, you will find a lot of the same things being said of capitalist countries.

	12-09-2003 01:52									#73
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OK, a new question. If you were in a position of authority how would you deal with the Saduis?

	12-09-2003 01:58									#74
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I would do everything but force them to change, as fundamentally and objectively its a case of "to each his own".

Military action? Begone cretin.

At the end of the day, let them do what they want, but economically speaking, there are, and will be consequences.

We should also consider that oil-producing societies tend to be rather unstable, particularly if that is their major industry. That is Iraq is doomed even if we don't **** it up, a prospect that is looking increasingly likely .

*elijah prepares another salvo of weed bombs*

	12-09-2003 02:04									#75
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quote: If you were in a position of authority how would you deal with the Saduis?

Encourage the build-up of two more swing producers: Russia and Iraq. Encourage liquid natural gas imports as a fuel alternative. Encourage technology and infrastructure building for fuel alternatives.

	12-09-2003 02:05									#76
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I'd invest heavily in horizontal drilling in Iraq

	12-09-2003 02:06									#77
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quote: We need to find ways to decrease our dependence upon oil, especially foreign oil, and it is clear Bush will not do this

And I'm agreeing with you??!?!? . Ah well...

Oil sucks, at the moment, our dependence means we are like a bus driving faster and faster towards an enormous hole in the ground. Needless to say, its not politically prudent to start instigating the required changes, after all, it might lose the election. Simple minded men in power, with simple minded policies to appeal to the simple minded voters . We truly are doomed.

Democracy: Ok, democracy is good to a point but lets be honest, right now it sucks!

	12-09-2003 02:06									#78
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For over 40 years saudi Arabia was a linchpin of the US position in the Arab world, and after the Shah went bye, a lynchpin of the Us position in the Gulf and Central asia (along with the Paks). During that time they became the largest purchasers of US military equipment and have immense links with the enertgy industry in the uS: anyone who thinks that such a relation just falls apart, even after something like 9/11 (which unlike PH could not directly be blamed on any state), is kidding themselves.

As for breaking SA up, it has been a state for over 60 years, and the majority of saudis now think of themselves as Saudis, even if they have clan affiliations: breaking up a self-created state (or at least, created by the House of saud without outside help) won't really happen.

	12-09-2003 02:06									#79
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin OK, a new question. If you were in a position of authority how would you deal with the Saduis?

As Slowwhand put it for Iraq:

Nuke the hell out of their area, until it glows.

Then nuke the area again, for glowing.

	12-09-2003 02:24									#80
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quote: Originally posted by elijah And I'm agreeing with you??!?!? . Ah well... Oil sucks, at the moment, our dependence means we are like a bus driving faster and faster towards an enormous hole in the ground. Needless to say, its not politically prudent to start instigating the required changes, after all, it might lose the election. Simple minded men in power, with simple minded policies to appeal to the simple minded voters . We truly are doomed. Democracy: Ok, democracy is good to a point but lets be honest, right now it sucks!

Our dependence on oil is economic. Oil is relatively cheap, and we have a huge amount of existing installation and technology base for oil combustion and for raw material use.

Despite the low fuel cost, there is already a lot of private incentive for combustion efficiency, primarily in aircraft and marine applications, where range, fuel capacity and cargo capacity tradeoffs encourage a lot of efficiency development. Those applications spill over into industrial engines and power production as well.

"Reducing dependency" is also a bit simplistic, since we get so many uses out of crude oil, (synthetic fabrics and polymers, chemical, fertilizer, as well as fuels) that reduction of "dependency" in one segment is pretty meaningless, because the remaining market segments are still dependent on other constitutents of different grades of crude.

Why do we use asphalt? Aside from all it's useful properties, the raw material is essentially waste left over after you fraction off heavy or intermediate crude into it's constituents. The same sort of process applies across the board - from one point of view, the particular constituents of crude oil you need for whatever you make is essentially waste material left over from other oil uses.

Transitioning to a post-oil based economy, or even one with a sharply reduced oil comsumption, is not something government can just mandate, and it's not something that can be accomplished without some economically very painful transition. You're talking trillions of dollars.

	12-09-2003 03:20									#81
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Transitioning to a post-oil based economy, or even one with a sharply reduced oil comsumption, is not something government can just mandate, and it's not something that can be accomplished without some economically very painful transition. You're talking trillions of dollars.

Which all means we must start that transition now. That way the pain can be mitigated and the costs of transition spread out.

Oil will run out soon. And at that point we will have a post-oil economy, expensive or not.

	12-09-2003 03:24									#82
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Soon?

Since when is at least one century soon?

	12-09-2003 03:27									#83
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We need solar and wind power.

We have the technology, and some of the cost of fossil fuels is keeping a strong military so those Bozos don't do something destructive with their oil money.

According to Scientific American, we have just about reached our peak oil production.
Mtg, substitutes can be found, we can use concrete for our streets, compost and dung for our farms, and don't underestimate our resourcefulness.

Last edited by realpolitic on 12-09-2003 at 03:53

	12-09-2003 04:52									#84
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We need to develop GMO crops to produce variable length hydrocarbons we can harvest. Then, we'll be able to grow what we need. Turning corn into alcohol is but the 1st step. The US produces more food than we need. This excess capacity could be converted to growing the hydrocarbons we need. Too bad for countries that are net importers of food, though.

	12-09-2003 06:10									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Hmm, I suppose the Yemenis are cooperating and they are handy capped by not having control over large sections of their country. Still we should be helping them to gain control and enforce law and order over their tribal areas. Especially if they will agree to stop teaching the facist ideology or at least radically change it so it is n o longer facist.

To do that, we would have to kill most of the tribmans. I don't think the world would go for that at this time. (Iraq)

	21-09-2003 02:00									#86
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True. I don't see a way out of that either.

	21-09-2003 07:30									#87
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quote: Originally posted by realpolitic According to Scientific American, we have just about reached our peak oil production.

Boy, reading estimates like that just make me want to drink. Our economies are so oil-dependent, that once we hit that crest (and even if the estimates are off, chances are it'll be, if not in our lifetimes, then in our childrens' or grandchildrens' at the latest), things are going to start to get very painful, very quickly as crude costs rise and take the rest of the economy, and by extension, our way of life, on a roller-coaster. Way too big a problem for me to wrestle with, hence the desire to just drink.

Bleah. That's way too heavy a thought to be having on a (admittedly not exciting) Saturday night .

	21-09-2003 11:56									#88
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin OK, a new question. If you were in a position of authority how would you deal with the Saduis?

Invest in alternative energy. The best way to hurt those scumbags in the long term is to gradually chip away at the basis of their economy. The less we're dependent on oil, the less comfortable they are.

Then when they still need food and don't have anything of value to sell, put a 2,000% markup on grain shipments to them.

(I have some other ideas too, but they all involve things prohibited by the United Nations Charter.)

	21-09-2003 12:07									#89
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quote: Originally posted by pchang We need to develop GMO crops to produce variable length hydrocarbons we can harvest. Then, we'll be able to grow what we need. Turning corn into alcohol is but the 1st step. The US produces more food than we need. This excess capacity could be converted to growing the hydrocarbons we need. Too bad for countries that are net importers of food, though.

If you're going to go this general route, you should take a look at Thermal Depolymerization.

quote: If the process works as well as its creators claim, not only would most toxic waste problems become history, so would imported oil. Just converting all the U.S. agricultural waste into oil and gas would yield the energy equivalent of 4 billion barrels of oil annually. In 2001 the United States imported 4.2 billion barrels of oil.

If this technology enters widespread use, the rest of the world can tell the Saudis to keep their oil and f*ck off.