12-09-2003 19:57									#1
	Iraqi Shiites Don't Want Islamic Gov't Suffering from ads?

Here is the first real poll of Iraqi public opinion from a firm that I respect, Zogby. Zogby has been very good at getting a handle on US public opinion. Zogby also makes a pretty serious hobby of public opinion in the Arab world.

600 interviewed. 4% margin of error.

http://www.opinionjournal.com/edito...ml?id=110003991

Many of the figures aren't surprising, but I was surprised at the lack of support for an islamic gov't among Shiites.

	12-09-2003 20:04									#2
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The US has strong support among the Shia, lord only know why after we shafted them so badly in 1991. Maybe they forgave us.

	12-09-2003 20:05									#3
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Better late than never, I guess.

	12-09-2003 20:07									#4
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The early assassination of the pro-US cleric (with the machete) seems to have backfired on the more reactionary forces. The bombing has really backfired.

	12-09-2003 20:07									#5
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Just for the record, I already started a thread on this exact poll. Check the thread "The truth about Iraq".

But yes. They are very interesting results. I think it shows that Iraq is doing better than the nay-sayers are willing to admit.

	12-09-2003 20:19									#6
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Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

	12-09-2003 20:20									#7
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara The US has strong support among the Shia, lord only know why after we shafted them so badly in 1991. Maybe they forgave us.

We shafted them? The began a revolt AFTER we had signed a cease fire. They made a separatist revolt when the Administration repeatedly stated it would not support separatism in Iraq. They waited until it was too late to be any help to the coallition, and sought to capitalize on the blood it had already spent.

	12-09-2003 20:23									#8
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quote: Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

That's a good question. I don't know of any poll figures in Iran for this period. I would guess that there aren't any, considering the kind of interest that would generate nowadays.

Diplomat: Yeh, I now see that. Sorry.

	12-09-2003 20:27									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Lefty Scaevola We shafted them?

Yes. We told them we would help them if they revolted. They revoleted (before the cease fire, btw). We didn't help them. During the negotiations the Iraqi government asked if the ban on flying included helicopters, we said no, and Iraq used it's helicopters to put down the revolt.

Then the Kurds revolted.

	12-09-2003 20:30									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Adam Smith Any idea what the level of popular support for an Isalmic government was in Iran in 1979?

There was a lot of support for it, but I can't say if it was a majority or large minority. The Iranian revolution almost took a (small-c) communist direction, with workers setting up their own soviets (workers councils). The student seizeure of our embassy helped the Islamists to solidify power and determine the direction of the revolution.

	12-09-2003 20:37									#11
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quote: Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle).

I think there is a bias problem here. As I understand it, the countryside is more fundamentalist, the cities more liberal. Note also that Baghdad, with fundamentalist enclaves in the slums, is not included.

quote: five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq

This isn't exactly encouraging either.

	12-09-2003 23:06									#13
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Here is the first real poll of Iraqi public opinion from a firm that I respect, Zogby. Zogby has been very good at getting a handle on US public opinion. Zogby also makes a pretty serious hobby of public opinion in the Arab world.

Wait...where are all the people claiming Zogby is inaccurate and biased towards liberals? Shi? Chris62?

Oh wait...this is something they'd agree with, so naturally it must be right...

	12-09-2003 23:18									#14
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Don't be an ass, Boris. I didn't say Zogby was inaccurate per se. I said recent polls in Zogby's past tended to show more support for the Democrats then the election results would show.

	12-09-2003 23:18									#15
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"Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33% want an Islamic government; a solid 60% say no."

Odd option. I would have found it more interesting to ask Islamic, Baathist or Democratic. 4:5 on Democracy isn't great either given the urban bias, as AS said.

The article is widely optimistic, that's really surprising coming from "Mr. Zinsmeister, editor in chief of The American Enterprise magazine and holder of the J.B. Fuqua chair at the American Enterprise Institute"

	12-09-2003 23:21									#16
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hmmm a poll of 600 people...

so?

I'm not a fan of polls... and I'm definitely against forming a policy based upon such polls.

	12-09-2003 23:23									#17
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I would be curios to see the actual layout of the questions as some of them could be seen to be leading if presented by an western poller.
If I was a scared Iraqi I would probably answer whatever I thought would please the occupying army most.

	12-09-2003 23:24									#18
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quote: I would be curios to see the actual layout of the questions as some of them could be seen to be leading if presented by an western poller.

Yes, I am curious too. Unfortunately, you have to pay $300 for that.

	12-09-2003 23:25									#19
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this thread is funny. watchin all the leftists creep on skepticism w/ no real ground yet. go out and find some and come back so it doesn't look quite so contrived.

	12-09-2003 23:26									#20
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quote: this thread is funny. watchin all the leftists creep on skepticism w/ no real ground yet. go out and find some and come back so it doesn't look quite so contrived.

not as funny as reading your dopey posts...

	12-09-2003 23:26									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Sava not as funny as reading your dopey posts...

I aint asking much.

	12-09-2003 23:28									#22
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quote: I aint asking much.

did you even ask anything? I can't understand you half the time...

	12-09-2003 23:30									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Sava did you even ask anything? I can't understand you half the time...

funny. u can't understand me yet ur willing to flame me as if u do. u r an insanely intellectually dishonest person.

	12-09-2003 23:33									#24
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon funny. u can't understand me yet ur willing to flame me as if u do. u r an insanely intellectually dishonest person.

I'm not flaming you, I'm flaming your incoherent ramblings.

	12-09-2003 23:33									#25
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Replica of my post in the original thread:

Even that excerpt is full of errors. For example:

quote: Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq.

These two views are not mutually exclusive. I can't understand why they didn't just have 'Democracy cannot work well in Iraq'.

quote: Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five--more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%.

This question seems blatantly designed to railroad subjects into answering 'U.S.' The 37% is pretty measly, when that is considered, despite the flowery language. Where are the other options, most notably Turkey and European-style social democracy?

	12-09-2003 23:34									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Sava I'm not flaming you, I'm flaming your incoherent ramblings.

u try so hard. I feel so bad for u sometimes.

	12-09-2003 23:39									#27
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon u try so hard. I feel so bad for u sometimes.

nah, it's easy...

	12-09-2003 23:39									#28
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Sandman

	12-09-2003 23:45									#29
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Sava attmepts to strike with his 'iron paw attack'!

yavoon side steps the blow with his amazing cat like grace!

Will it ever end!

Find out on the next exciting episode of "Crouching Troll, Hidden Flamer"