15-09-2003 12:30									#1
	ARTICLE: Democratc Iraq an Unwanted Role Model in Middle East Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Everyone:

It's been something of a drought lately on the raw news wires, but I think I might have found something that will generate some good discussion in the OT. Per my occasional custom, the story is posted below; read through it and contribute to this thread as you see fit afterwards.

Gatekeeper

quote: To change-resistant Arab rulers, new Iraq is an unwanted role model By HAMZA HENDAWI Associated Press Writer BAGHDAD, Iraq (AP) — For an Arab world resistant to political reform, the new Iraq taking shape under U.S. tutelage is a troubling harbinger. In the five months since U.S. forces rid Iraq of Saddam Hussein’s rule, the country’s ethnically and religiously diverse people have, in one giant leap, overturned decades of social and political injustice, replaced a brutal one-party system with a multitude of groups advocating a rich range of ideologies and created a free press. Shiite Muslims, a majority in Iraq oppressed for decades by a Sunni minority favored by past colonial masters and later by Saddam, are now free to worship in public and visit their holy shrines. Kurds, non-Arabs whom Saddam killed by the thousands to suppress their struggle for self-rule, are now main players in the new Iraq — their voices strong, their ideas sought. Already Iraq’s interim leadership is the only Arab government with a Shiite Muslim majority, and its foreign minister isn’t even Arab. But the path to democracy in this nation of 25 million people must get over some big hurdles — political bickering, terrorism and growing attempts to stoke ancient sectarian rivalries — for it to become a viable role model in a region ruled by change-resistant, authoritarian leaders and absolute monarchs. ‘‘Diversity is the most distinct feature of the new Iraq,’’ said Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a Shiite who last month became the first president of the U.S.-appointed Governing Council. ‘‘We raise our heads high and tell the world that, from now on, we will show a multitude of faces, offer you many voices and that’s the new Iraq,’’ he said in a recent interview. Arab support for Saddam However, many in the Arab world view the new Iraq as a puppet nation where the United States calls all the shots. They also see it as a boon to Israel — the Arabs’ No. 1 enemy — arguing that Saddam gave more support to the Palestinians than any other Arab leader and that he alone stood up to America. ‘‘Most Arab intellectuals stood by the Iraqi regime for different motives and without any consideration for the suffering of the Iraqi people, simply because the regime was Arab and opposed America,’’ Abdel-Khaleq Hussein, an Iraqi, wrote in an article published Sept. 7 in the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat. From the viewpoint of most Iraqis, Saddam was a brutal dictator who remained in power for as long as he did — 23 years — partly because Arab leaders kept quiet about his crimes in exchange for the large financial gains made from trading with Baghdad and so as not to invite criticism of their own dismal human rights records. While most Iraqis celebrated Saddam’s fall despite their misgivings about the Americans, Arabs beyond Iraq’s borders were dismayed to see TV images of U.S. troops in central Baghdad. For their leaders, it was a question of who might be next. Last week, the Arab League reluctantly accorded Iraq’s interim leadership a measure of recognition when it allowed Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd and a longtime Saddam critic, to fill Iraq’s seat in the Cairo-based organization. The league also broke its silence on Saddam’s crimes, condemning the mass graves in which the deposed dictator buried thousands of Shiites and Kurds who rose against his rule in 1991 or were suspected of dissent. Despite Arab misgivings, experts say the changes in Iraq are likely to put pressure on regimes to introduce political reforms, provided that U.S. plans for a new constitution, a general election and the restoration of Iraqi sovereignty by the end of 2004 are implemented. ‘‘If we don’t change,’’ said Saad Eddin Ibrahim, a prominent Egyptian analyst and civil rights campaigner, ‘‘somehow it will be imposed on us. It’s inevitable and if they (Arab leaders) are smart, they should manage it, lead it themselves.’’ Shiite rivalries But Iraq’s progress toward democratic rule is far from guaranteed with rivalries deepening among Shiite factions, attacks against U.S. troops showing no sign of abating and Sunni-Shiite friction becoming a potential threat to stability. Last month’s assassination of Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, a top moderate Shiite cleric, in the holy city of Najaf has been widely blamed on Saddam loyalists who want to punish those collaborating with the Americans. But some suspect a radical Shiite group led by Moqtada al-Sadr, a young cleric who agitates against U.S. occupation and is scornful of clerics and politicians who have returned recently from exile. The intra-Shiite rivalries, also thought to be responsible for the murder in April in Najaf of Abdul Majid al-Khoei, another senior cleric fresh from exile, are exacerbated by the near total silence of Ali Hussein al-Sistani, arguably Iraq’s most respected cleric. Al-Sistani, who is known to place his religious calling ahead of politics, is believed to have confined his movements to his Najaf home since the murder of al-Khoei. His aides say they fear for their leader’s life but don’t identify the source of that threat. Al-Sadr, whose group has repeatedly denied any part in killing al-Hakim or al-Khoei, has not been engaged by the U.S.-led coalition in the Iraqi political process, a tactic that may explain his animosity toward the Americans. But experts believe the Shiite desire to see the political process bear fruit — with members of the community in power — is strong enough to patch up differences, or at least contain them. ‘‘Most Shiites appear to be engaged in an implicit political bargain,’’ the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based research organization, said in a recent report. ‘‘They will continue to work with the occupation forces in exchange for the prospect of genuine political power,’’ it said. Lurking Sunnis Lurking in the background are the Sunnis, Iraq’s political, economic and military elite for nearly a century but who now play second fiddle to the Shiites they once oppressed. Shiite-Sunni tensions have so far been contained, with leaders of both sects making repeated calls for unity. But the suspicion that Saddam loyalists were behind the assassination of al-Hakim, possibly with the help of radical Sunnis from neighboring countries, may change that. Also, most attacks on U.S. forces take place in the ‘‘Sunni Triangle,’’ an area north and west of Baghdad where Saddam drew his strongest support. By contrast, Shiite Iraqis have refrained from attacking the Americans and argue that the Sunni insurgency places an obstacle on the road to independence. The Sunnis, for their part, see the Shiite stance as tantamount to collusion with the country’s occupiers and privately accuse them of harboring plans for an Iranian-style clerical government that would give the Shiite nation of neighboring Iran, Iraq’s historical foe, influence over Iraqi affairs.

	15-09-2003 12:45									#2
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Good article. Good points

	16-09-2003 05:23									#3
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Iraq should be our battleground to bury the terrorists.

Better fight them over there than here at home.

	16-09-2003 06:10									#4
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Hmm, never knew LM was an admin. lackey...

Certaily the autocratic leaders of the Arab world would not see a democratic Arab state as being in their interests, since then their own people may want that democracy bit themselves. The thing is, what do the Arabs want to vote for? Becoming a democracy, and accepting secular western values are two different things, so that should not be confused. The bigger issue is how the foudations of an Iraqi democracy will be laid. The last 14 years of democracy in Latin America after decades of mostly authoritarian rule has been spotty in various places: many of the social inequalities in the Arab world also have to be addressed.

	16-09-2003 06:31									#5
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yah the middle east is an idealogical and cultural craphole. its gna be hard.

	16-09-2003 10:59									#6
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I figure it took the United States years to get its democratic act together following its independence from Britain, so we should expect no less from other nations that are just getting their bearings. Of course, the Founding Fathers in 1776 didn't have to worry about modern ordnance, either, or fanaticism ...

Gatekeeper

	16-09-2003 11:04									#7
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quote: Originally posted by Lord Merciless Iraq should be our battleground to bury the terrorists. Better fight them over there than here at home.

**** yeah.

Draw those ****s in and cream them.

	16-09-2003 11:18									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper Of course, the Founding Fathers in 1776 didn't have to worry about modern ordnance, either, or fanaticism ...

They had turncoat rebels like MTG to worry about though.

	16-09-2003 12:04									#9
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During the 1970's through the early 1990's it seemed like every part of the world moved closer to democracy except the Arab world. Latin America, South Africa, much of east Asia, and even parts of the rest of Africa experienced a move towards economic and political freedom. Yet the Arab world remained mired in Absolute dictatorships and fake Democracy (like in Egypt) where the system is rigged to insure the persons in power stay in power decade after decade.

If Iraq can be made into a functioning democratic state (a big if) then it would be a powerful tool for catalyzing change in a part of the world that seemed most deeply mired in authoritarianism and crony statist economics.

	16-09-2003 12:22									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper I figure it took the United States years to get its democratic act together following its independence from Britain, so we should expect no less from other nations that are just getting their bearings. Of course, the Founding Fathers in 1776 didn't have to worry about modern ordnance, either, or fanaticism ... Gatekeeper

That's just not true. There were a couple of small, minor isurgencies after the revolution (Shay's Rebellion, The Whiskey Rebellion), and there were certain moments of backsliding (the Alien and Sedition Acts), but the US had a functioning, orderly democracy from the start, even under the Articles of Confederation. Yes, it was not a full-fledged democracy as we now understand those terms (for that matter, it arguably still isn't); but in its own moment, it was.

The problem with Iraq and all of the Islamic world -- even Turkey -- is that it never went through the Enlightenment and/or an Islamic equivalent of the Reformation. The values of Islam run largely counter to the values of the Enlightenment and reformation, and until those values are displaced you will never have a full and competent embrace of democracy in the Islamic world. And these are not values which can be imported and imposed like so many fast-food outlets; they have to be organic.

	16-09-2003 13:38									#11
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I take it that the Islamic world's Golden Age during the European Dark Age wasn't the equivalent to the reformation and Enlightenment that came to Europe after its Dark Age?

	16-09-2003 13:40									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker They had turncoat rebels like MTG to worry about though.

Heh. I suppose Shay's Rebellion and the Whiskey Rebellion come to mind here. But those rebels weren't Southerns ... Pennslyvanians in the former and Rhode Islanders in the latter? Ah, heck, my grasp on history tonight is rusty.

Gatekeeper

	16-09-2003 13:51									#13
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To add to Rufus, another thing missing that comes before democracy is the rule of law. Democracy usually followed that in the west.

The only thing that could work in Iraq as a compromise between western and islamic ideas. That's a big gamble, and I doubt it can succeed with an occupying power as clueless as this one.

"I take it that the Islamic world's Golden Age during the European Dark Age wasn't the equivalent to the reformation and Enlightenment that came to Europe after its Dark Age?"

Don't get me started on the dark-age-myth.

The arab world was more "enlightened" than the west during that time, but it did not result in a secular, humanistic world view. Or develop a vision of the state independent of religious community.

	16-09-2003 13:52									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Gatekeeper I take it that the Islamic world's Golden Age during the European Dark Age wasn't the equivalent to the reformation and Enlightenment that came to Europe after its Dark Age?

Absolutely not. It was certainly a Golden Age, but it wasn't an incubator for the specific ideals that are central to developing democracy, like the inherent worth of the individual, the value of the individual over the group, the value of meritocratic achievement, etc.

	16-09-2003 22:04									#15
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Hmm, never knew LM was an admin. lackey...

What's wrong with my statement? We all know that Iraq is an Al-Qaeda magnet. It's much beneficial for us to shift the battlefield there. War should always be fought on enemy's turf if possible.