17-09-2003 23:19									#1
	Chalabi and the other exiles are the legitimate govt of Iraq Put an end to popups!

Well, France and Germany are apparently asking that sovereignty over Iraq be handed to them within a month. Werent these the same guys who were US puppets with no real support on the ground, who France and Germany refused to endorse just a few months ago?

Can someone please explain?

	17-09-2003 23:29									#2
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Well, Chalabai should be turned over to the Jordanians, but the rest of the Council seems to be okay as a provisional government.

	17-09-2003 23:39									#3
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Well, Chalabai should be turned over to the Jordanians, but the rest of the Council seems to be okay as a provisional government.

then why a few weeks ago did the UNSC insist that they only be welcomed but not endorsed ?

why was it that a few weeks ago they were handpicked, unelected, puppets of Jerry Bremer? Completely lacking in legitimacy?

	17-09-2003 23:42									#4
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Because they're compromising or setting up the scene of a compromise?

	17-09-2003 23:52									#5
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Because they're compromising or setting up the scene of a compromise?

the french are insisting we turn over control of Iraq to them in a month, when WE say the Governing council isnt ready, and that its important to get a constitution written and have elections first. Which, BTW, is standard UN procedure in Bosnia, Timor, etc.

	17-09-2003 23:56									#6
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Yes, but didn't we say that we'd be out of there in three months? Why haven't elections for a Constituant Assembly been organized?

	17-09-2003 23:58									#7
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Yes, but didn't we say that we'd be out of there in three months? Why haven't elections for a Constituant Assembly been organized?

Whoever in their wildest dope induced fantasys thought we would be out of there in 3 months needs to be sent to a treatment hospital for shock therapy..

	17-09-2003 23:59									#8
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Did the French specify the Governing council, or just Iraqis in general? Iraq does have a constitution currently: after all, the US did not intervene with any UN sanction and overthrew the recognized government of Iraq, as such is resembes something mroe like vietnam's invasion of Cambodia than Bosnia or East Timor, so using those two as an example is iffy: both of those were new states, not 70 year old states that were members of the UN since day one.

	18-09-2003 00:04									#9
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Is the war even "officially" over?

	18-09-2003 00:04									#10
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Did the French specify the Governing council, or just Iraqis in general? Iraq does have a constitution currently: after all, the US did not intervene with any UN sanction and overthrew the recognized government of Iraq, as such is resembes something mroe like vietnam's invasion of Cambodia than Bosnia or East Timor, so using those two as an example is iffy: both of those were new states, not 70 year old states that were members of the UN since day one.

withdraw in ONE MONTH in favour of Iraqis generally? Just how do you do that?

The current constitution - are the French really proposing that?

Heres some more to think about


Fareed Zaraia on the rush out of Iraq.

	18-09-2003 00:06									#11
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Yes, but didn't we say that we'd be out of there in three months? Why haven't elections for a Constituant Assembly been organized?

Cause it was only a few weeks ago that the IGC even appointed a commitee to determine a method for calling a constitutional convention, determining membership, etc. Theyre supposed to report shortly.

	18-09-2003 00:14									#12
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark withdraw in ONE MONTH in favour of Iraqis generally? Just how do you do that? The current constitution - are the French really proposing that?

did I endorse the plan anywhere? The point is that Kosovo (which is still recognized as part of Serbia), Bosnia (which came into being and recognized only a few years before intervention) and East timor (which was not recognized as a state until after the whole process was over) are not usefull annalogies to Iraq, due to hisotrical and proportional differences, and the method by which intervention was achieved.

As for the plans: I do think the French plan is rushed, the thing is I don;t see why a political ahndover means no reconstruction aid, or Americna troops for Security. The uS gave billions to fully independent states in Europe, not to states under US control coming up with a constitution, so while I think passing political control to a council that is NOt ready is hasty, I also do not see why a hyandover means the end of US forces or money as well.

	18-09-2003 00:15									#13
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AFP, Sept 16

'In an interview with PBS television's "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer," Levitte said that Paris would favor "first a symbolic transfer of sovereignty."

He pointed out that it was "not yet" time to hand over real power to the Iraqi Governing Council, a US-installed body controlled by US civilian administrator Paul Bremer.

Therefore, Levitte continued, France would support "a transfer of responsibilities into the hands of the ministers as soon as they are ready to exert these responsibilities."

France has initially proposed a compressed timetable for restoring Iraq's sovereignty following the US-led invasion of the country that toppled the government of Saddam Hussein.


The French plan called for installing a provisional Iraqi government within a month, completing a draft constitution by the end of the year and holding free and fair elections in Iraq next spring.


But now the ambassador said Paris was determined to seek "the best possible" UN Security Council resolution, rather than insist that all of its demands be accepted. '

	18-09-2003 00:17									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Sprayber Whoever in their wildest dope induced fantasys thought we would be out of there in 3 months needs to be sent to a treatment hospital for shock therapy..

That would be: Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz . . .

	18-09-2003 00:20									#15
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Fareed Zaraia on the rush out of Iraq. . .

Wasn't it only a couple months before the US helped set up a government (however farcical) in Afganistan?

	18-09-2003 00:21									#16
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Has everyone already forgotten what general what's his name (Bremer's predecessor) said about the timetable? He was talking months, and that was back in April.... though perhaps that is why he got canned so quickly.

	18-09-2003 00:22									#17
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quote: Originally posted by GePap did I endorse the plan anywhere? The point is that Kosovo (which is still recognized as part of Serbia), Bosnia (which came into being and recognized only a few years before intervention) and East timor (which was not recognized as a state until after the whole process was over) are not usefull annalogies to Iraq, due to hisotrical and proportional differences, and the method by which intervention was achieved. As for the plans: I do think the French plan is rushed, the thing is I don;t see why a political ahndover means no reconstruction aid, or Americna troops for Security. The uS gave billions to fully independent states in Europe, not to states under US control coming up with a constitution, so while I think passing political control to a council that is NOt ready is hasty, I also do not see why a hyandover means the end of US forces or money as well.

The differences in scale and history would seem to indicate that Iraq needs MORE time to develop a constitution than Bosnia, Timor, or Cambodia did - not less. As for the method of intervention, I dont see how that matters. Its up to the UNSC now to make decisions.


As for US troops and aid - who said that US troops and aid would stop with a handover - I didnt - the reason its hasty is because Iraq hasnt yet written a constitution - and nobody there wants to restore the 1990 constitution. And they are still in very early stages of developing political parties (other than the ones organized by exiles) establishing a free press, etc. Rushing to elections without establishing free institutions would seem to be a formula for a new tyranny.

	18-09-2003 00:24									#18
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Wasn't it only a couple months before the US helped set up a government (however farcical) in Afganistan?

The US didnt occupy Afganistan. Kabul, you will recall, was occupied by Northern Alliance troops. The only alternative to rushing a Karzai govt would have been to allow the Northern Alliance to set themselves up as the government. Or for the Coalition to go to war with the Northern Alliance.

The Karzai govt was rushed, but there wasnt any choice. Oh, and it want just the US - the UN and Germany took lead roles as well.

	18-09-2003 00:25									#19
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I don't think the French and German demand is a real one, but a point to be negotiated away at the table. If they started at a real solution while negotiating from Bush's neo-con game fanatasyland, they's still end up someplace bad.

	18-09-2003 00:26									#20
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Has everyone already forgotten what general what's his name (Bremer's predecessor) said about the timetable? He was talking months, and that was back in April.... though perhaps that is why he got canned so quickly.

Yup - Gardner wanted to turn the govt over to the exiles - evidently Bremer doesnt thing thats such a hot idea. Whats got me confused is not the changes in US policy - its the unexplained change in French policy.

	18-09-2003 00:30									#21
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I don't think the French and German demand is a real one, but a point to be negotiated away at the table. If they started at a real solution while negotiating from Bush's neo-con game fanatasyland, they's still end up someplace bad.

Yeah, but even in a first negotiating position youve got to make some sense, and be consistent. If youve said the US is rushing to give power to its favored, handpicked exiles, then you start by trying to exclude all the exiles, and then compromise by allowing some of them. You dont start by saying lets hand over power to the exiles tomorrow. Thats just plain nuts. Its like the Dems asking for minium wage of $8, and the GOP responding by asking for a minimum wage of $100. Youve got to ask, are they just trying to set us up to fail?

	18-09-2003 00:31									#22
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark The differences in scale and history would seem to indicate that Iraq needs MORE time to develop a constitution than Bosnia, Timor, or Cambodia did - not less. As for the method of intervention, I dont see how that matters. Its up to the UNSC now to make decisions.

The issue of national sovereignty is central to the UN and its charter: if you can claim you acted to help people who's national rights were being violated by another party, fine. If you go in an overthrwo what is recognized as the legitimate government of the nation (yes, even a brutal dictatorship) then it does affect what the UN should do, no? And I would really question putting cambodia in: whatever Saddam did it still pales to what the Khmer rouge did in just 4 years..heck, ambodia still doesn;t have enough lawyers 30 years later. While I am unlcera about how long anoi took to hand over political power to Cambodians it was probably in a few months if not less.

quote: As for US troops and aid - who said that US troops and aid would stop with a handover - I didnt -

The WaPo article you linked to did.

	18-09-2003 00:34									#23
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"Iraq may not be a failed state, but it is a highly dysfunctional one. It has been through three decades of totalitarian rule, three wars, 13 years of economic sanctions and massive internal repression. Its ministries are organized along Stalinist lines. Its people have been cowed into submission for decades. It will take some time to reform the Iraqi state and heal Iraq's political culture. An immediate transfer of power would retard and perhaps even reverse this process of reform. New political leaders would seek to use the Iraqi state to consolidate their power, not limit its reach. That is what happened in Bosnia. Once elected, ethnic thugs didn't want to build the rule of law; they wanted to use the law to stay in office.

A quick transfer to locals would also mean the end of American aid. The United States is planning to put at least $20 billion into Iraq this year -- half the GDP of the country. Iraq has not had a published budget since 1979. Its ministries cannot spend $20 billion, let alone spend it well. There is no chance that the United States would keep the aid flowing if it went directly into such a system"


INTO SUCH A SYSTEM - IE if Iraq did not have a genuine organized government.

	18-09-2003 00:39									#24
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quote: Originally posted by GePap The issue of national sovereignty is central to the UN and its charter: if you can claim you acted to help people who's national rights were being violated by another party, fine. If you go in an overthrwo what is recognized as the legitimate government of the nation (yes, even a brutal dictatorship) then it does affect what the UN should do, no?

It means that its imperative that you restore Iraqi sovereignty - in the way thats best for the future of the Iraqi people - but then that would be the case anyway - are you suggesting that getting the US out is worth placing power in the hand of whoevers available, without a constitution written, without a real chance for free elections, with the likelihood of new despotism and even civil war?

That may very well be France's intention, but I'd like to see it clarified. I doubt very much that the rest of Council agrees.

	18-09-2003 00:40									#25
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quote: Originally posted by GePap While I am unlcera about how long anoi took to hand over political power to Cambodians it was probably in a few months if not less.

and they handed power to their handpicked puppets, resulting in renewed, prolonged civil war, and ultimately UN intervention.

We're trying to do it differently.

	18-09-2003 00:46									#26
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The rest of the council though going in was a bad idea. One of the sad realities of the modern international system is that civl wars and any dictatorship not actively engaging in genocide is the probem of the locals alone, not the International community. Only slowly is that changin; which would generally mean that restoring soverignty to Iarqis would come ahead of whether the iraqis would self-implode (you know, the personal responsibility model which conservatives always tout about). The tning is, the international reprecussins of an Iraqi implosiuon are high enough to make it worth international stewardship.I do agree with the French than in areas where the Iraqis can take overm they should. For example, i am sure the Iraqis can take over the oil ministry and oil contracts with no problem, and thus the US should give that up

	18-09-2003 00:58									#27
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quote: Originally posted by GePap (you know, the personal responsibility model which conservatives always tout about).

I guess thats why im not a conservative. And Pat Buchanan and Robert Novak would say that Wolfie isnt one either.

	18-09-2003 01:00									#28
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quote: Originally posted by GePap The tning is, the international reprecussins of an Iraqi implosiuon are high enough to make it worth international stewardship.

Yup - thats what is likely to happen - with Paul Bremer (not Jerry, pardon) as the UN representative, and with Sanchez as the UN commander.

	18-09-2003 01:00									#29
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Yeah, but even in a first negotiating position youve got to make some sense, and be consistent. If youve said the US is rushing to give power to its favored, handpicked exiles,

Well, two things. The exiles have a rather limited role in the Council. Two, I don't think that France is trying to keep the exiles from power, but is trynig to get the US to turn the reigns over to the UN.

	18-09-2003 01:21									#30
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Wasn't it only a couple months before the US helped set up a government (however farcical) in Afganistan?

Every situation is different. You can't expect Iraq to be Afganistan, it will take longer to prepare them for Democracy. To make sure that the Iraqis act responcibly, we must suck all their oil out.