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notyoueither
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of naught
Aug 2001
time: 22:30
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Our forces in Spain
South:
p x 12
mi x 13 (4 reg)
k x 14
c x 1
Centre: Pamplona
p x 4
North:
p x 5
mi x 3
/Edited. I missed the 2 knights on the boat headed for Murcia.
Last edited by notyoueither on 22-09-2003 at 01:46
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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:30
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The c's are catapults, right?
IIRC the knights and pikes were all fortified. According to the stack calculator, the average losses expected from attacking our stack with (up to) 25 riders/ansars are 10.2 losses from each side. We did worse than that, obviously since we lost all our units (we had a 30% chance that one or more would survive against 25 attackers). The subset of trials where we lose all our units, the attackers lose 8.9 on average (9 being the single most likely). It is 90% likely they lost between 4 and 12 units and 99% certain that they had between 3 and 13 casualties.
I think it is fair to say that barring pretty good luck for us (aside from losing all those units that is) we came off second best in this battle., despite having better than 50-50 odds in each individual fight.
Annoyingly, they managed to get most of their wounded units to safety, so we can't even pick those off to even up the odds.
We know of 11 of their units out of the anticipated 25 or so, so 14 are unaccounted for. We have about a 0.6% chance that we killed 14 units, so lets not count on that. They likely have another 5 or so riders/ansars guarding the GoW southern cities (while ND have probably flooded their taking with defenders by now).
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vulture
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Leeds, UK
Jun 2001
time: 05:30
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I'm not convinced ND have committed themselves in the south. We've been at war with them for 13 turns now, and they've been in GA for most of that. Their GA started on turn 129, and now we're on turn 143 - that's 14 turns of GA, with their production at the start of 108 shields per turn. It's probably increased since then (a GSIA report would be informative). That gives potentiall 1512 shields to play with. Ansars are cheap - 50 shields? Or is it 60 - can't remember. Allowing for about 80% efficiency (due to shields wastage - they may be able to micromanage better than this though) that gives them up to 24 ansars if they are building them directly (and nothing else, assuming 50 shields / ansar). Allowing for some pike production to bolster their captured cities, they could easily have another 15 ansars waiting further north, which is enough to cope reasonably well with many attacks.
BTW lets not get too upset about this - don't let them get the psychological edge as well. We (probably) had some bad luck, but lets plan the next moves as though none of this had happened, just working on what we know of their dispositions and what troops we have to work with. Leave the blind panic for others to do. And on the bright side, we are 20 gpt better off than we were...
EDIT: corrected some numbers
SECOND EDIT: the mullering that GoW has likely taken to their Riders (most of the casualties come from them, while ND got to pick off the wounded knights) makes the chances of a GoW backstab less likely. Their forces are weaker than NDs now by some margin - they lost those troops, and have not gained the productive cities that ND has. ND is doing rather well out of this war, and GoW have gained very little - all they've done is effectively to enable ND to consolidate their gains at very little risk to themselves.
Wonder if we could persuade ND to go for a backstab.... but I really, really doubt it.
Last edited by vulture on 22-09-2003 at 20:52
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20-09-2003 10:02
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