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The Mad Monk
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of Ice Cream
Mar 2000
time: 23:31
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quote:
Schroeder Heading for Landslide Defeat in Bavaria
Sat September 20, 2003 06:50 PM ET
By James Mackenzie
MUNICH, Germany (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats face their third major defeat this year Sunday in a state election that Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber is forecast to win by a landslide.
Polls predict Stoiber's Christian Social Union (CSU), which has held power in the Alpine state of Bavaria for four decades, will increase its share of the vote to about 60 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) will struggle to top 20 percent.
After heavy defeats in state polls in Hesse and Lower Saxony, another big loss would underline Schroeder's weak standing nationally and step up pressure as he attempts to steer an ambitious package of reforms through parliament this autumn.
It would also represent a measure of revenge for Stoiber a year to the day since Schroeder defeated him by just 6,000 votes in last September's general election.
But the election should also open the way for Schroeder to start serious negotiations with the conservatives over the painful program of welfare, health and pension reforms and a related set of tax cuts he is counting on to help kick start the stagnant economy.
Talks in Berlin between the SPD and the conservatives, who can block most of the measures as they control the upper house of parliament, have come to a standstill in the run-up to the election. The conservatives do not want to be seen to back vote-losing welfare cuts during the campaign.
The conservatives have been at pains to play down some predictions that their majority could end up as high as two thirds but the SPD has effectively written off Bavaria, where the CSU has held an absolute majority since 1962.
Stoiber's traditional appearance in Bavarian costume at the opening of the annual Oktoberfest beer festival in Munich on Saturday was greeted with the customary roar of approval from the crowd and he has made great play of Bavaria's solid economy in the campaign.
But a landslide win would also reinforce his position as one of the leaders of the national opposition, potentially giving him a role as kingmaker in anointing a future challenger to Schroeder or even allowing him to resume the mantle himself at the next elections in 2006. |
http://reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm...storyID=3479450
What does this portend for the German national elections in 2006? Is Schroeder doomed? Can he fight his way out of this ever-deepening pit? Will Americans ever consistantly spell his name correctly?
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HershOstropoler
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"What does this portend for the German national elections in 2006? Is Schroeder doomed?"
Very little. It confirms the national polls where his party is in deep ****, but it's still 3 years to go.
"Can he fight his way out of this ever-deepening pit?"
That's possible if the economy turns around and he gets further reforms going. Although the more relevant question is, can the CDU/CSU fight their way to another defeat? You bet they can.
"Will Americans ever consistantly spell his name correctly?"
Own goal.
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HershOstropoler
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
I thought that the German voters would be in open revolt against Schroeder with the current double-dip recession. We would be chopping off their heads in the US. |
European voters don't vote based solely on the business cycle. I find it funny when the nanny state is held responsible for giving everyone a job.
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HershOstropoler
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
Laugh all you want but the truth remains. Schroeder was behind in the polls before he came out with his anti-American policies. |
Do you want a surrender monkey with that whine?
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Proteus_MST
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quote:
Originally posted by Sir Ralph
I grant Oerdin this one, he was behind in the polls and won by a campaign opposing the American warmongering. The vast majority of our population supported this. I don't see why it is a bad thing promising (and then keeping the promise!) what the majority of the population wants. I can't say I'm unhappy with Schroeders foreign policy. It may be performed arkwardly sometimes, but the general direction is ok. His domestic policy sucks, though.
But what all this has to do with the election of the Bavarian parliament, remains a mystery. |
Maybe, I don´t know.
It could also have something to to do with other Aspects of his Election Campaign, such as lying about the successes, his government has made during the 4 years before.
But of course, as most of the Germans saw (and still see) the Iraq Wars as illegal, he made a wise move in declaring, that Germany wouldn´t get involved into the war (and keping the promise). I also fail to see anything bad in tryng to do what the majority of your Population wants.
As for the next natonal Elections, I think it depends very much on how well the economy is running during this time. If Elections were held at the moment I think, that the SPD (Schröders party) wouldn´t win, because of the bad economic Situation (despite Angela Merkel (CDU) making a very bad Move for the PR of the CDU/CSU by kissing Bushs ass during her Visit in Washington).
But it is a long time till 2006, maybe the economic Situation is better at this time and Schröder might have a chance to win the Elections again 
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HershOstropoler
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
Dyl: Do you honestly contest that Schroeder was not behind in the polls before he began his anti-American rants? It's pretty clear he moved into the lead upon his anti-Bush/American positions. |
He gained a couple percentage points by being against your silly Iraq adventure, in agreement with the vast majority of public opinion. That's not anti-american, he could have played that card much more ruthlessly.
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HershOstropoler
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Anyway, I'm a firm believer in the punishment principle. The Germans should have thrown Schroeder out of office for doing precious little while the country double dipped. |
I believe in that principle too, but on a performance standard, you would have to publicly quarter any Repubicrat.
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HershOstropoler
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You're used to the pathetic state of US public debate, where every disgagreement with the dear leader is anti-something (antiamerican, antisemitic). Schröder's comments were tame compared to Rumsie's ramblings. He could have said that Bush is a war criminal, but he didn't, that dumb lameass.
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HershOstropoler
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He didn't order her to say that*, and she was sacked. Where's Rummy for his Lybia comment?
* More precisely, that Bush uses foreign policy to detract from domestic issues, and that pattern is known since Nazi times.
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Sir Ralph
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Long live teh Schwampel!
Dec 2001
time: 06:31
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quote:
Originally posted by Proteus_MST
As for the next natonal Elections, I think it depends very much on how well the economy is running during this time. If Elections were held at the moment I think, that the SPD (Schröders party) wouldn´t win, because of the bad economic Situation (despite Angela Merkel (CDU) making a very bad Move for the PR of the CDU/CSU by kissing Bushs ass during her Visit in Washington).
But it is a long time till 2006, maybe the economic Situation is better at this time and Schröder might have a chance to win the Elections again |
The right wing may have the upper hand right now, but elections are won by the success in the last 4-6 weeks before the polls and not by something what happened 3 years ago. Also, the Germans have not forgotten, who rode them in the deep **** by 16 straight years doing nothing ("sitting things out", if this is a good translations of "aussitzen" ). That were the same conservatives, who now scream, that they have the patented recipe to get us out of the misery. I don't want to defend Schröder, he is domestically incompetent, but the right wing is not any better.
I give Schröder a decent chance for winning in 2006 again, if his opponent is Stoiber. Even if a majority of Germans may tend to vote conservative. But Stoibers popularity is limited by the state borders of Bavaria. Everywhere else he's loathed. And the feeling "Conservative - maybe, Stoiber - never!) may gain the upper hand again.
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22-09-2003 11:30
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