09-10-2003 08:19									#31
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

2 Mercs, not 3. But we figure that they might be "modeling" their war moves.

We can see a 6/13 Sword Army in Agralord and the city is in civil Disorder...

E_T

	09-10-2003 08:54									#32
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Agreed FP. It is possible they realise it's unfairness, but since this has not been strictly banned by the UN they feel it is not illegal. I plan to compose a message to mongoose to get this banned, and then we can put our evidence forth. So can we get some people on assembling that evidence?

	09-10-2003 10:02									#33
	Inflate your Upload Space

G01 'AS Princess of Apolyton' [WhiteBandit] moves 9 8 8. Fortify all

N01 'MerZenary' moves 2. Fortify
N04 'Togas' skips turn
N05 'Enamel' moves 8

M12 'BigFurryInfantry' attacks Avar camp at 2. Avar warrior is dead, no damage
M26 'Alva' moves 6. Fortify

G02 'AS Expedition' [GCA Slave Worker] moves 8-8-7. Algalord shows army (looks like 6 of 10 or 15 pips). City is in disorder

Worker Yo roads (1). Nevermore 2 2
Worker Rah roads (1). Nevermore 2 2

W12 'Warrior With No Name' moves 7 4 1

H04 'Trip's Guard II' moves 1 2 2 2 2 2
H05 'Mingapulco' moves 2 2 2 3 2
H06 'Incensity' moves 1 2 1 2 2 2
H07 'BFC' moves 2 2 2 2 1 2

M13 'Beta' fortifies
M16 B moves 2 2 3
M17 C moves 2 2 3
M22 'vondrack' moves 2 2 2
M23 'Aidun' moves 2 2 2
M24 'Makahlua' moves 2 2 2
M25 K moves 1 2 2
M27 'Bananatopia' moves 1 1 1

N13 'ZargonX' moves 3 2
N14 'Pikesfan' moves 3 2
N15 'Hungryopd' moves 3 2

C07 'Possum' moves 3 2 3

AGA moves 2
AGB moves 2
W02 'BigFree'
W06 'Hagbart'
C01 'Kloreepult'
C02 'Smasher'
C03 'Trasher'
C04 'Simon'
C05 'Gate Crasher'
M01 'Vlad'
M02 'PanzerInfantry'
M03 'Arnelos'
M04 'E_T'
M05 'Theseus'
M06 'wervdon'
M07 'Scourge'
M08 'Steelglove'
M11 'Slash'
M18 D
M19 E
M20 F
M21 G
N02 'Mao'
N06 'notthemeither'
N08 'roadcage'
N10 'Kloreep'
N12 'rush'

C06 'Basher' moves 2
M14 'Hack' moves 2
M15 'Rhothaerill' moves 2
N16 'Sharpe' moves 2
H03 'vonHorseman' moves 2

Workers:
Monkee & CalcII - Road tile (done). Tripoli 7
Gang of 3 (MrWIA, EVC & Dejon) - start mining Tripoli 3
Dan & Gits - Start clearing Big Bend 4
Yin - Build colony on the silks
Panag - Start clearing Ming 1

WF:
Apolyton NC.
Mingapolco NC.
Bananatopia Change WF to 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-19 (working game)
Incensity NC.
Nevermore NC.
Tripoli Change WF to 1-2-7-17-18
Equilibrium NC. scientist
Cuildo de Alcohol NC.
Hispanica NC
Possumopolis NC.
Karina NC.
LuxInvicta Change WF to 3-5-7-9
Big Bend Change WF to 1
BigFurryCity NC
Heart of Darkness NC

Economy:
Apolyton - Building Settler (turn 2 of 3).
Mingapolco - Chnage to merc (turn 2 of 3).
Bananatopia - Start building Settler (turn 1 of 3).
Incensity - Building Horseman (turn 2 of 4).
Nevermore - Building Worker (turn 5 of 10).
Tripoli - start building NM (turn 1 of 3).
Equilibrium - Building Walls (turn 20 of 20).
Cuildo de Alcohol - Building Settler (turn 4 of 10).
Hispanica - Building Num Merc (turn 3 of 5).
Possumopolis - Start builting Settler (turn 1 of 8).
Karina - Building Cat (turn 4 of 10).
LuxInvicta - Building Settler (turn 4 of 7 schedualled).
Big Bend - Building Catapult (6 of 12 schedualled).
BigFurryCity - start building horse (turn 1 of 3)
Heart of Darkness - Building Cat (turn 6 of 6 shedualled).

	09-10-2003 10:23									#35
	Put an end to popups!

Let's get fanes7 in here, I bet he could whip us up some Great Leaders in no time...

Sigh.

If it does end up that GCA has been cheating this way all along (I'm not optimistic that they'll ever admit to anything, though), this game would turn sour for me very fast. What would the UN have GCA do...gift us all their cities?!


Dominae

	09-10-2003 10:27									#36
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

If someone can give me a complete listing of all units we've lost on the defensive to GCA (including terrain considerations), I'll gladly calculate the odds.


Dominae

	09-10-2003 10:34									#37
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

First NM - Vet on grassland, not fortified with NO Cats in the group, killed by an Elite Horseman (who lost 2 pips).

2nd NM - Vet on Hill, not fortified with Cats as part of the group. likely killed by an Elite Horseman but it could also be a Vet.

That's it sofar

E_T

	09-10-2003 10:41									#38
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Hm? I thought we lost two this round, and some before that.


Dominae

	09-10-2003 11:17									#39
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Why would anyone sane attack a stack of NMs + cats on a hill with a lousy horse, knowing that the next turn they will go on flat land and the chances for a win would be much better ??!!

Btw, the odds for a vet. horse to win were ~ 13% and for an elite horse ~ 20%, ignoring the cats. The chances for a retreat are higher, but I don't know the exact numbers (how are the retreat odds calculated, btw?)

	09-10-2003 11:42									#40
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

We have lost more than that Dom. Let me track down the figures for you. For one, we lost a Reg Sword on a Mountain to a Horse. A Vet Sword to a Horse on Grassland.

	09-10-2003 13:51									#41
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Observations (don't know if it's any help):

• Algalord is not growing anymore (see Top-5 City list).
  
• GCA founded a new city near CFC, Santopia (might be last turn).
  

	09-10-2003 13:57									#42
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I sure hope this is the biggest RNG shafting I've ever seen. The alternatives aren't very pleasant.

It would be different if it was just bad luck in losing units by itself, but since it seems that GCA are making bizzare strategic decisions this suggests that they are slightly more confident than usual of success.

I hate people who accuse their opponents of cheating when they start to lose, but the evidence against GCA has been mounting up for a while now. I agree that we'd have to wait until the odds dropped below 1% before complaining, though.

	09-10-2003 13:59									#43
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

The problem is that we would need a very clear idea about which odds drop below 1%. The odds of all their attacking units winning? The odds of not setting off our GA? Both odds combined? (and there are more possibilities)

	09-10-2003 14:02									#44
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

Hmm ... good point. If we lump them all together then the cumulative odds of all those things happening will be very low anyway, whether they cheated or not.

	09-10-2003 14:52									#45
	Get a bigger avatar today!

I have just finished collating all the losses we have incurred in the war and have started a thread on it. Please look at it and check my calculations. At present there are few battles that were very uncertain - however attacking the NM on the hill just this last turn with a Horse was sheer folly - only 20% chance of an Elite Horse winning!

So far it looks as if there may have just been some really shoddy calls, but nothing too improbable. We must keep the list updated though, in case we find there is more to come.

	09-10-2003 19:42									#46
	Suffering from ads?

Their likely secret is that they take insane chances that most of us wouldn't even dream of doing.

Let them break their teeth on our NM's, because those MN's will be protecting our Cats and MI's. They can't deny them, once we get into attack range.

E_T

	09-10-2003 20:09									#47
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Observations (don't know if it's any help): Algalord is not growing anymore (see Top-5 City list). GCA founded a new city near CFC, Santopia (might be last turn). I cannot determine whether Santopia has been founded this turn or last turn. Vondrack's report thread only shows the current map, and last turn's map does not include that area. Are we storing this kind of info somewhere (except in the save games themselves) ?

BFM, yes, I am keeping track of this information too, pls find attached the latest update of GCA City Status :
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Catcher in the Rye (formerly known as Elucidium - CDG)
Turn 93 - captured city from CDG. Walls included.
Turn 99 - Population increase to 2
Turn 103 - Population reduced to 1. Rushed a temple.
Turn 105 - Population increased to 2
Turn 108 - Culture expanded (from temple rush on turn 103)
Turn 110 - Population increased to 3
Turn 117 - Population increased to 4
Turn 122 - City disbanded (Note : city was building Settler when we investigated)

Incredible Dancing Girl (formerly known as Zarigueya - CDG)
Turn 90 - captured city from CDG. Walls included.
Turn 108 - Culture expanded. same time as Catcher in the Rye. Likely to have built a temple too on Turn 103.
Turn 113 - Population increased to 2
Turn 114 - Population reduced to 1. Likely to have built a worker.
Turn 124 - City disbanded

Random Outpost (formerly known as OurGoatsaretrainedtokill - CDG)
Turn 86 - Captured from CDG
Turn 102 - Population increased to 2
Turn 120 - Population increased to 3
Turn 123 - Population reduced to 2
Turn 124 - City disbanded

Algalord
Turn 81 - Culture expanded (to 100) so their temple was built very long ago
Turn 94 - Population increased to 4
Turn 105 - Population increased to 5
Turn 115 - Population reduced to 3. Built Settler. Settler found Lucky Harbor.
Turn 120 - Population increased to 4

Server Fire
Turn 91 - Built from the settler from Dun na Anarchy
Turn 101 - Population increased to 2
Turn 111 - Population increased to 3
Turn 121 - Population reduced to 1. Built Settler. Settler has not found City yet.

Catchopolis
Turn 84 - Population increased to 5
Turn 101 - Population increased to 6
Turn 124 - Population increased to 7
Turn 125 - Built Great Library

Dun na Arnachy
Turn 81 - Population increased to 3
Turn 85 - Population increased to 4
Turn 88 - Population reduced to 2. Built settler. Settler found Server Fire.
Turn 90 - Population increased to 3
Turn 95 - Population increased to 4
Turn 99 - Culture expanded (10). Could have built a temple on Turn 94.
Turn 100 - Population increased to 5
Turn 101 - Population reduced to 3. Built settler. Settler found Port Blacksand.
Turn 105 - Population increased to 4
Turn 107 - Population reduced to 2. Built settler. Settler found Sodapopolis.
Turn 110 - Population increased to 3
Turn 115 - Population increased to 4
Turn 119 - Population dropped to 3. Built Settler. Settler found Santopia
Turn 123 - Poly captured Dun na Arnachy. City razed.
Turn 124 - GCA rebuilt Dun na Arnachy.

Balance of Power
Turn 92 - Population increased to 5
Turn 101 - Culture expanded (100). Must have built temple very long ago.
Turn 123 - Population increased to 6

Port Blacksand
Turn 105 - built from settler from Dun Na Anarchy
Turn 115 - Population increased to 2
Turn 125 - Population increased to 3

Sodapopolis
Turn 111 - built from settler from Dun Na Anarchy

Lucky Harbor
Turn 120 - built from settler from Algalord

Santopia
Turn 125 - built from settler from Dun na Anarchy

	09-10-2003 20:23									#48
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

Some trival information looking at the saved file :

1. Land Area. In Turn 124, we became #3 in Land Area after GCA razed Random Outpost & Incredible Dancing Girl. In Turn 125, GCA built Santopia, and we are back to #4. This means our Land Area is very close to GCA.

2. Annual Income per capital. We become #1. although i don't think this rating means very much.
Formulae from BFM : 1 + (Number of available Strategic and Luxury Resource Types) + (1 if you have a trade route)

3. GCA overall score has increased at a slower pace (Last 5 turns : +3, +4, +2, +2, +1). This is understandable because they have razed 3 cities & suffered some casualties since the War began. On the other hand, there are no significant change in the GWT and CGN scores.

4. GWT has captured 1 CGN worker. CGN has captured 1 GWT worker. All on Turn 125. Not sure how this would have happened, since their borders are pretty far apart. My guess is one side captured a Worker, and the other re-captured the same worker.

5. 3 CGN cities grew population this turn - Bretten (3 to 4), Arlington (4 to 5), Newark (6 to 7). No change in CFC cities population this turn. Change in GCA city pop is in the post above.

	10-10-2003 00:55									#49
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

quote: Originally posted by rush Some trival information looking at the saved file : 4. GWT has captured 1 CGN worker. CGN has captured 1 GWT worker. All on Turn 125. Not sure how this would have happened, since their borders are pretty far apart. My guess is one side captured a Worker, and the other re-captured the same worker.

No, the F3 screen shows that CGN had captured a GWT worker and that GWT had lost a worker to CGN, so it's just one worker that had exchanged hands.

E_T

	10-10-2003 02:03									#50
	Full PM-box? Change here!

I also find it very suspicious that they would attack a vet merc on a hill guarded by cats, with a horse?!?, when we have to go onto flat terrain before reaching the city. It just doesnt make sense. I might consider this just luck on their part, IF similar luck wasnt reported by others that fought them AND if they hadn't generated at least 2 leaders (Army & Great Library), maybe 3, in relatively few elite battles.

I admit reloading is tough to prove, but repeatedly they appear to be getting results in their favor. If this is true our best option is to attack as soon as we feel we have enough to take Alagord.

	10-10-2003 06:14									#51
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by E_T No, the F3 screen shows that CGN had captured a GWT worker and that GWT had lost a worker to CGN, so it's just one worker that had exchanged hands. E_T

I am sorry ...... I was about to go to sleep then.
I am however surprised to see GWT losing worker to CGN, thought this would be the other way round, ie CGN losing to GWT . Reason being i. GWT started the War, so should have plenty of time to "hide" their worker, ii. CGN cities are in the other land mass, quite far off from the battle front. May be difficuilt to execute attack and capture workers.

We should continue to keep up the diplomacy with GWT and CGN to understand what's happening over there.