17-10-2003 23:05									#1
	hints of political change in the middle east Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

while we're cheerleading

Democracy emerging in arab world

	17-10-2003 23:06									#2
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do you want us to believe that all of this is because of our invasion of iraq?

	17-10-2003 23:12									#3
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed do you want us to believe that all of this is because of our invasion of iraq?

is that the best retort available?

	17-10-2003 23:12									#4
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No. I want you to have these facts, thats all. If i wanted to suggest that they support some other point I would have said so. It is certainly possible that this happening now is just coincidence. Alternatively it may be that its a reaction to the threat from Al qaeeda, and thus while not a coincidence, is not caused by what is happening in Iraq. In fact there is much good reason to think its NOT caused by the situation in Iraq - notably the fact that Iraq has not yet had a nationwide democratic election. I certainly dont think anyone who expected a democratic domino reaction expected it to happen BEFORE democracy was in place in Iraq. I certainly didnt. Its also quite possible that this is surface stuff and wont last anyway - some of it certainly looks that way. I think it is interesting nonetheless, and its timing is interesting nonetheless.

	17-10-2003 23:26									#5
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quote: is that the best retort available?

it wasn't a retort, it was a valid question. do you honestly believe that this is the result of the second gulf war?

besides, winds of change have oft blown in the arab world, only they also often turn out to be ephemeral. iran, supposedly, has a small democratic movement, yet it still feels threatened enough by the "great satan" that the ayatollahs have fairly strict control.

	17-10-2003 23:30									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed quote: is that the best retort available? besides, winds of change have oft blown in the arab world, only they also often turn out to be ephemeral. iran, supposedly, has a small democratic movement, yet it still feels threatened enough by the "great satan" that the ayatollahs have fairly strict control.

AFP:

'Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi shrugged off Iranian government warnings and criticism from hardliners, vowing her struggle for democracy and human rights would continue.

"I will not change the way in which I work. The awarding of the prize showed that this method is a good one," the 56-year-old jurist said Wednesday in her debut appearance before domestic media since becoming the first Muslim woman Nobel laureate.

Although Ebadi said she had no desire to enter politics -- some fans have even tipped her as a future political leader -- she did tell authorities "to respect its international engagements regarding human rights".

Ebadi also said she would continue to stand behind dissidents, another reason behind the hostility shown towards her by members of Iran's powerful religious right.

"The defence of those facing political accusations has always been a priority, and this will continue," the petite and softly spoken jurist told reporters. She also repeated her "hope" for all political prisoners to be freed.

Ebadi, who was given the prize last Friday for her efforts to promote democracy and human rights, was welcomed by thousands of fans as she returned late Tuesday to Iran from France -- where she had been making a short trip when the prize was announced.

Some 10,000 people, a majority of them women, descended on Tehran's Mehrabad airport for her homecoming, with bumper-to-bumper traffic bringing an area around the airport to a standstill.

Many in the crowd shouted political slogans, echoing Ebadi's calls for political prisoners to be set free, and chants directed against embattled reformist President Mohammad Khatami"

	17-10-2003 23:32									#7
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There were probably dribbles of democracy in the middle east before the Iraq war, and there would probably have been plenty even without the Iraq war.

	17-10-2003 23:38									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman There were probably dribbles of democracy in the middle east before the Iraq war, and there would probably have been plenty even without the Iraq war.

Yup, notably elections in Jordan a couple of years back, and some opening up in Tunisia.

Can't recall when there were this many dribbles in this short a space of time though. But of course they'r still dribbles. The real question is will they increase, or fade away.

	18-10-2003 03:33									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed quote: is that the best retort available? it wasn't a retort, it was a valid question. do you honestly believe that this is the result of the second gulf war? besides, winds of change have oft blown in the arab world, only they also often turn out to be ephemeral. iran, supposedly, has a small democratic movement, yet it still feels threatened enough by the "great satan" that the ayatollahs have fairly strict control.

k sorry, just seemed like an inane grasp at a retort.

it amazes me sometimes that america had the military power to revult THEN the self control to form a democracy. the two seem all but mutually exclusive nowadays.

	18-10-2003 03:37									#10
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quote: Yup, notably elections in Jordan a couple of years back, and some opening up in Tunisia.

AFAIK, there have always been elections in Jordan, to the parliament. What has changed.

In any case: to the article. 'Hints' is overstatement of the year.

	18-10-2003 03:47									#11
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I don't know. I'm far from being an expert (by neither of you are either I suppose) but in a semi-long perspective, i.e. around ten years or so, not much have improved in the middle east. In Jordan for example, King Abdullah has cracked down on democracy and civil liberties since the death of his father Hussein. Ironically, the reason for the suppression seems to be an attempt to hold down the peoples disagreement with the kings pro-western foreign policies.

The election of Khatami as president in Iran gave some hope for a more democratic iran, maybe even a velvet revolution, but most of the worlds hopes have turned to dust. Reformers are keept back by the guardians of the faith still.

	18-10-2003 04:03									#12
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The question is, will the extremists allow democracy to evolve or will they torpedo it at the first available window of opportunity? I'm willing to bet on the latter. In some ways the situation throughout the middle east is like that in Tsarist Russia in the 19th century. There have been currents favoring change, but in every instance radical interlopers have arisen resulting in either a reactionary reversal, or a new so-called revolutionary dictatorship worse than the old one. As the governments of the middle east attempt to liberalize look for the blood to flow when they start to remove the restrictions. The extremists will treat the reformers of the middle east today just like the radicals in Russia treated Alexander over a century ago.

However, this anticipated turmoil may be a necessary step towards political progress in the middle east, because it would be naive to think that a culture which rejects the West will learn pasively from the mistakes of the West. Ultimately they may very much need to learn from their own mistakes.

	18-10-2003 04:14									#13
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i'm trying to find an article published recently that tries to prove that islam and democracy are not mutually exclusive--and i think it's quite compelling and right.

now if only i could find it. it was on aldaily.com...

	18-10-2003 04:29									#14
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The impediments to real democracy in the region are so vast that hints is the best that will happen for several years save a second Iranian revolution. In fact, the greatest amount of democracy in the ME outside of Israel is Iran (at least national election aren;t won by 90% margins). Unfortunitelly, the war in Iraq probalby has slowed that possibility significantly, so we will have to wait half a decade or more for a nice outcome in Iraq. And Latin America right now is a very very clear warning thast the road to long-term contitutional democracy is fraught with consequences. It also shows free market proclivities can get you in trouble (hence Venezuela, Brazil, and now Bolivia with the resignation of it's president).