25-11-2003 01:10									#1
	I think the recession's over Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

I've been looking on Monster today, as I expect my contract to end in the new year, and there are jobs up the butt in my field. I haven't seen so many web jobs available since the late '90s.

IT'S OVER! IT'S OVER! IT'S OVER! YAAAAYYYYYY!!!!!


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	25-11-2003 01:13									#2
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You better look at finacial facts instead of job listings before you start dancing.

Spec.

	25-11-2003 01:23									#3
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Well Economists are predicting robust growth in 2004... at least that is what the NY Times says.

	25-11-2003 01:24									#4
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Job listsings is what impacts real people.

	25-11-2003 01:28									#5
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Say thank you to Dubya for his tax cuts now Che.

	25-11-2003 01:35									#6
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Job listsings is what impacts real people.

Yes, in my opinion, that's what's most important.

Almost all of my friends that were out of work are now back gainfully employed.

And when headhunters call, they are now asking if I know if anyone is available. It's been a few years since a headhunter asked me that. So things in IT must be getting better. Any my company has been hiring too.

All good signs if you're in IT.

RAH

	25-11-2003 01:36									#7
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I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself.

	25-11-2003 01:37									#8
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quote: Originally posted by rah Yes, in my opinion, that's what's most important. Almost all of my friends that were out of work are now back gainfully employed. And when headhunters call, they are now asking if I know if anyone is available. It's been a few years since a headhunter asked me that. So things in IT must be getting better. Any my company has been hiring too. All good signs if you're in IT.

I wanna get another job.

	25-11-2003 01:38									#9
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I must admit that the tax cuts/increased spending certainly seem to have done the trick (but with a deterioration of the government's structural balance of nearly $700bn a year that's hardly surprising).

What is strange is that US consumers have done nothing to correct their financial imbalances during this downturn (indeed if you just look at the relative levels of borrowing and debt the current situation looks more like a peak than the recovery from a recession).

So either there will be a 'producers recovery' with the gains going to exporters and the growth in consumer spending being very subdued (by which I mean slower than it was even during the last 3 years) or the stage is set for a truely horrible recession next time - pretty much like the shallow 1970 recession failed to purge imbalances that caused havoc when the 1974-75 recession happened.

	25-11-2003 01:53									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Caligastia Say thank you to Dubya for his tax cuts now Che.

I don;t think they had anything to do with it.

	25-11-2003 02:16									#11
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara I don;t think they had anything to do with it.

What do you attribute it to?

	25-11-2003 02:21									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Caligastia What do you attribute it to?

Certainly not giving money to the rich.

	25-11-2003 02:26									#13
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Hmm, maybe not the ultra rich, but in our case, since we have our debt managed, (we only owe on our house) and our daughter's college fund was in good shape, we spent the tax savings on non-necessities so we helped clear somebodies inventory which now has to be replenished. If enough people did this, it could help explain why more jobs are being added. So while i'm sure it's not the single reason, it has to have helped the situation.

	25-11-2003 02:50									#14
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quote: Originally posted by el freako I must admit that the tax cuts/increased spending certainly seem to have done the trick (but with a deterioration of the government's structural balance of nearly $700bn a year that's hardly surprising). What is strange is that US consumers have done nothing to correct their financial imbalances during this downturn (indeed if you just look at the relative levels of borrowing and debt the current situation looks more like a peak than the recovery from a recession). So either there will be a 'producers recovery' with the gains going to exporters and the growth in consumer spending being very subdued (by which I mean slower than it was even during the last 3 years) or the stage is set for a truely horrible recession next time - pretty much like the shallow 1970 recession failed to purge imbalances that caused havoc when the 1974-75 recession happened.

This, is, sadly, exactly what I think will happen. Jobs have just barely started to appear, and i bet most of the jobs coming up are lower paying than the jobs they are replacing. The amdin, is till millions of jobs bellow were it begun, and I do doubt enough jobs will be created in a year to make this up (which will still make W the firt president since Hoover to rpeside over less Americans with jobs at the end of his term than at the beginning). I have seen no numbers in increasing wages, which means people are still spending the tax cuts (most of which have not even really arrived, but most of those cuts do go to the very top brackets) and money from re-financed mortages due to the continuing rock bottom rates. But were would the new money come from?

	25-11-2003 02:56									#15
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quote: Originally posted by GePap This, is, sadly, exactly what I think will happen. Jobs have just barely started to appear, and i bet most of the jobs coming up are lower paying than the jobs they are replacing.

One thing I have noticed is that a lot of the jobs seem to be paying about 75% or less than what I'm making now. Factor in that I'm living in an area with a very low CoA, and I could well be taking an economic hit.

Nonetheless, 1440+ jobs came up in my search.

	25-11-2003 03:04									#16
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Certainly not giving money to the rich.

Wouldn't it be more correct to say that they 'took less' rather than 'gave'? Saying they 'gave' money to the rich makes it sound like it was never their money to start with.

So...what do you attribute the upswing in the economy to?

	25-11-2003 03:09									#17
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The Tax burden on the upper incomes today is far lower than it was during the "glory days" of the 50's and 60's, and yet that did not seem to inhibit growth during those two decades, and lo and behold, cut the income gap as well. Tax rates on the top incomes are back to 1920's levels, and lo and behold, soon enough so will the income gap.

Service jobvs, which is most of the jobs tha come up, are not going to pay (and more importantly, lack the benefits off) the jobs they are replacing. That bodes badly for the lower classes and middle class.

The rich are never made poor by the tax burden in this country, sepcially since they earn enough to know how to doge as much taxes as possible.

	25-11-2003 03:10									#18
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Cleared inventories, a weaker dollar raising demand for American goods, the pruning of enough sick branches of the economy to allow healthy ones to grow, etc.

	25-11-2003 03:12									#19
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Low interest rates still and huge amounts of spending iand refinancing still. Exuberant hopes for a golden recovery as well..

	25-11-2003 03:36									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Caligastia Wouldn't it be more correct to say that they 'took less' rather than 'gave'? Saying they 'gave' money to the rich makes it sound like it was never their money to start with.

Yep, but communists and socialists prefer to say it the other way. It makes the rich sound more evil.

And just a note; my buds that found jobs, all are making more than they were before.

	25-11-2003 03:51									#21
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And what kind of jobs did your buds have? The type at which one can afford $50 haircuts?

The government makes and distributes money..and money is worth something only as long as the government is willing to back it: so unless the rich have their own presses and back their money on their own words, it is the govs money at the beginning, and end. Now if the rich whish to give up all their dollars and revert to private bank notes..I am more than willing to take it off their hands.

	25-11-2003 03:59									#22
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Utter Crap. It's not the governments money. It the people's that earn it. Without that incentive, the US would be just like the old Soviet Union. More screwed up than it already is.

Cheap shot on the haircut. But I expect no less from your type. Classless, in more ways than one.

	25-11-2003 04:08									#23
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"People earned it" Fomr whom? their employer..wh got it from where? The magic money tree in their backyard? And if tommorrow the US government announced it would no longer honor the value of the dollar but was swithcing to something else, all those people's whose wealth lies in portfolios, spread sheets and so forth would lose most of it.

quote: Cheap shot on the haircut. But I expect no less from your type. Classless, in more ways than one.

"my type"?

Is it crass for me to assume you do not hang out with the hoi poloi of the population? the kind that loose trade jobs, industrial jobs and then move on to lower end service sector jobs? i sure don;t. I don;t talk about how my friends got this job or that, so it porves this or that..why? cause most of the people I know just left college and had no jobs before, or end up in financial jobs, so they are NOT representativ..and my guess is that the friends you speak of are not either.

	25-11-2003 04:21									#24
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GePap, Man you gotta get out of that liberal hotbed your working in.

hoi poloi? Too Funny!

	25-11-2003 04:29									#25
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO GePap, Man you gotta get out of that liberal hotbed your working in. hoi poloi? Too Funny!

Liberal hotbed? Where do you guys think the money exist? it sure as heck is NOT the conservative strongholds. As I keep saying, NYC exports 11 billion dollars in tax revenue to the rest of the country..and the people in the poor states have the gaul to talk about their tax dollars going to NYC!?

Where do you think the Bush Tax cuts will have the most impact? Missouri or NYC? I can tell you, it's in NYC..and yet New yorkers don;t like him...it is not all about money.

	25-11-2003 04:30									#26
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Is it crass for me to assume you do not hang out with the hoi poloi of the population? the kind that loose trade jobs, industrial jobs and then move on to lower end service sector jobs? i sure don;t. I don;t talk about how my friends got this job or that, so it porves this or that..why? cause most of the people I know just left college and had no jobs before, or end up in financial jobs, so they are NOT representativ..and my guess is that the friends you speak of are not either.

Yes, it is with no other info than a 50 dollar haircut. But then most of your assumptions are based on lack of information. Money is just a way to keep score. At any one time, I have no more than 5 or 6 thousand dollars. The rest is tied up in real estate, investments in companies, precious metals, items of comfort to support my family. Even without money, those items still maintain a value. And no i don't hang out with the hoi polio. I'm just your average middle class American that's busted his butt trying to provide for his family. I probably donate more time and money to charity in a year, then you're likely to in your lifetime, but since I don't know that for sure, I won't insult you with it.

	25-11-2003 04:37									#27
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quote: Originally posted by rah Yes, it is with no other info than a 50 dollar haircut. But then most of your assumptions are based on lack of information. Money is just a way to keep score. At any one time, I have no more than 5 or 6 thousand dollars. The rest is tied up in real estate, investments in companies, precious metals, items of comfort to support my family. Even without money, those items still maintain a value. And no i don't hang out with the hoi polio. I'm just your average middle class American that's busted his butt trying to provide for his family. I probably donate more time and money to charity in a year, then you're likely to in your lifetime, but since I don't know that for sure, I won't insult you with it.

	25-11-2003 04:49									#28
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Hmm, just like my family, that sounds...

No, most people making even over 100,000 don;t have that much saved in the bank.

quote: I probably donate more time and money to charity in a year, then you're likely to in your lifetime, but since I don't know that for sure, I won't insult you with it.

Is this irony or something. I am sorry, but given what i hear daily, I don;t go over well for class martyr and such. My job consist of trying to help people with lives I would not whish for my worse enemies..so I am very well tuned with suffering, with job loss, and worse. I don;t need the lessons on life misery, or life's dangers, just going from my own expriences, which have been varied. Now, we can start comparing penis size in terms of suffering, but I don;t care to.

The figures are simple: most new jobs do not pay as much as the old ones. saying "I know these guys" means nothing when in a discussion like this. So spare me the "I am a working middle class story", cause what that means varies, and I do have plenty of experience with all levels of poverty and wealth. All of which is why I don;t use my life as a template..no life is a template. so stick to nice figures if you want to avoid such comments.

	25-11-2003 04:55									#29
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Yes, you're right, It's not fair to compare experiences with someone that has so little. Call me back in 25 years.

	25-11-2003 04:56									#30
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quote: Originally posted by GePap My job consist of trying to help people with lives I would not whish for my worse enemies..so I am very well tuned with suffering, with job loss, and worse. I don;t need the lessons on life misery, or life's dangers

GePap, How many of these people would help themselves if you were not there? How many would just sit down and starve to death? The point is that their are opportunities everywhere in this country. It is just far easier to turn to the government for help. That way you can still maintain your lifestyle and don't have to give up the three TV's and the microwave to make ends meet. If government would force people to make their own breaks then society as a whole would be more productive. I can assure you that us 6 figure makers won't let those trying to suceed starve.