25-11-2003 19:17									#31
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I really don't understand why people think Catchopolis is going to be abandoned: "They know they're going to lose it anyhow?"

Um. We *CANT* take that city right now. That's out.

"There are better defensive locations for them to make their final stand."

Uh. Where exactly do they have another hill city with reinforcement routes running to it from multiple locations?

Unfortunately, GCA has planned this course of action from day one - wither, retreat, hammer back (with their remarkable luck), and gather for a counterstrike. We've walked right into it, pleased with our success to this point. It is very fortunate that we got that investigation in, else we would have butchered ourselves on the walls of Catchopolis, and then we would have been on the defensive, or at the very least in an ugly production war.

It may be that GCA knows this war is about to go into "industrial frenzy" and is in fact producing settlers with the hope of getting more industrial production centers. Surely, a curious strategy on their part, but they've done very well with... curious strategies... to date. They can place them west, because after all, CFC hasn't done much lately, have they? (At least as far as they know.)

GCA's backbone is centered in Catchopolis, and if we want to once and for all break the back of GCA, we will do it here, just as we predicted their last stand would be so long ago: Algalord or Catchopolis. That hasn't changed, no matter how much we may WANT that change to have occurred.

If you go back far enough through the threads, you'll find a post about expecting your opponent to play intelligently and presenting you with your worst case scenario written by someone. ::Cough::

Let us not now continue to take our opponent for granted, and let us begin investigating what the worst case of what they could do to US is... boating incidents, anyone?

GCA is NOT stupid. While the momentum is not theirs, it surely is no longer ours. Let's not forget that while they may have remarkable luck, they are still intelligent people sitting behind it, making our task all the more difficult. [b] GCA knew this day would come, and we nearly walked into it. [b] Now, if you were GCA, what is your next move?

THAT should be our biggest question.

	25-11-2003 19:54									#32
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This war is by no meams won yet.

I appreciate trying to save the GA an money for tech advancement after the war but if we dont win this war it is not going to do us much good.

We need to make an all out effort to reinforce our army and go for a knock out blow. Using our superior production to advanatge.

Fall back reinforce and then continue the war, we can not afford a "lost" battle here, especially with GCA's "luck".

	25-11-2003 20:07									#33
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Why didn't we see this coming?
We should have started building more MI many turns ago...
Now we need to wait because of not so good planing.

	25-11-2003 20:09									#34
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I support Trip's idea of a fortress north(west?) of Catch from which we can threathen both Catch and BoP.

	25-11-2003 20:15									#35
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we should have waited for the other cats to get there.

We will definately have to use a multi turn cat seige.

E_T

	25-11-2003 21:10									#36
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Having run through the sim several times last night, I would definately say we are much better served by waiting for reinforcements. The odds of us having our forces more or less wiped out for little gain is too great to be ignored. We can outproduce them, we can outnumber them; why make things more difficult for ourselves?

	25-11-2003 23:24									#37
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The fact that we can outproduce them does not change if we attack or not. GCA does not know what is lying behind the forces at Catch 7. We do have troops enroute now. If we decimate most of their troops in Catch, GCA will be devistated. All troops we kill of their's now is troops we don't have to kill later. Will GCA go on the offensive against Inevitable if we attack Catch and take the average amount of losses that the SIMS show? No, hardly the case can be made for that. Inevitabel can't be attacked in one turn, there forces would be hanging in the breeze. GCA does not and has not played like that. I say we either attack Catch on the next turn or we move to the site 7-4 of Catch and build another fort so that we can take BoP or Catch after an investigation by CGN lets us know which is the better to go after then.

	26-11-2003 00:07									#38
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree The fact that we can outproduce them does not change if we attack or not. All troops we kill of their's now is troops we don't have to kill later.

This is not exactly so. If we push the attack and lose 10 or 12 units, while 3 or 4 pikes and some horses will survive in Catchopolis, they will be fully healed next turn and some of our units will have been sacrificed in vain. If we wait few more turns, our reserve units will be able to kill off all those 1 or 2 hp units that otherwise may survive an assault.

	26-11-2003 00:29									#39
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Consider moving off to threaten another city. If the relative strength numbers we have gleaned from CFC, have any basis, there really can't be much besides what is in Catch.

Looks like a full turtle. Treat it as such.

edit....
look at the 2nd Fort proposal in the turn by turn thread. I confess I really didn't have a plan when I wrote the above, but the Fort looks like a "weiner"

Last edited by roadcage on 26-11-2003 at 01:00

	26-11-2003 00:51									#40
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****.

Definitely switch builds to MI. We need more hitting power. Do we maybe need an extra Numidian or two? They've had, um, pretty good success in killing those.

The odds are bad. There is only one thing keeping me from saying "hold for reinforcements" - the enemy's incredible luck on offense. But if we're using that to plan our play, something is terribly, terribly wrong.

Attacking that position is close to suicidal. If they do us the favor of abandoning, hurray! If not, ping 'em with cats and wait for reinforcements.

-Arrian

	26-11-2003 09:27									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian ****. Definitely switch builds to MI. We need more hitting power. Do we maybe need an extra Numidian or two? They've had, um, pretty good success in killing those.

Yes, we would need an extra NM or two, precisely because of their luck. If we run out of NMs then it's MIs next - and when they start taking down our offensive forces we are in more trouble than even now.

	26-11-2003 09:48									#42
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with most people here agreeing that we should wait, build up and have a go at Catchopolis later, we should perhaps think about :

1. should we built lots more MI ? or do we built lots of horses, wait for Chivalry and upgrade all of them into Knights ?

2. should we cut off the iron, build lots of Warriors and upgrade the lot ?

3. GCA's unit is War Elephant. The tech advance is Chivalry. War Elephants requires no resource. We have to finish GCA before Chivalry.

4. We should stop all trading of techs to avoid GCA getting techs from the Great Library.

5. Should we be building more NMs ? I think Pikeman is the better option because is has a defence of 3. I am at work, so could not check up the values of NM and the cost of building them vs Pikes.

	26-11-2003 09:58									#43
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Carthage can't build pikes. The merc is better for the same shield cost.

Your other points are very good ones. These developments should lead to a more comprehensive review of our thinking on some subjects.

	26-11-2003 10:36									#44
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quote: Originally posted by rush with most people here agreeing that we should wait, build up and have a go at Catchopolis later, we should perhaps think about : 1. should we built lots more MI ? or do we built lots of horses, wait for Chivalry and upgrade all of them into Knights ?

We must really try to finish them before knights.
If they get elephants & a GA, it will make our job even harder.

quote: Originally posted by rush 2. should we cut off the iron, build lots of Warriors and upgrade the lot ?

Not a bad idea.
Rush a barracks in Fort Inevitable, and upgrade all the warriors when they get there.

quote: Originally posted by rush 3. GCA's unit is War Elephant. The tech advance is Chivalry. War Elephants require no resource. We have to finish GCA before Chivalry.

Agreed

quote: Originally posted by rush 4. We should stop all trading of techs to avoid GCA getting techs from the Great Library.

I doubt it will make any difference.
The only tech we dont want them to have is Chivalry.
Unfortunately, they have contact with GWT who is beelining for Chiv.
You can guarantee that GWT will gift chivalry to GCA.
We insulted GWT at 1BC, and have a tech embargo against them with CGN. GWT would love to do it just for spite.

Gunpowder must also not fall into their hands.
Thats still many turns away, but again, we cant control GWT, who could use their GA to rush up to the tech, and gift it to GCA.

quote: Originally posted by rush 5. Should we be building more NMs ? I think Pikeman is the better option because is has a defence of 3. I am at work, so could not check up the values of NM and the cost of building them vs Pikes.

What NYE said. NM's are all we got and are better than Pikes anyway.

	26-11-2003 10:45									#45
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Cutting the iron again was something I was considering earlier.

If we could spare the cash then it would be a great idea. However, we only have about 300 gold now and if we wanted CGN to be able to help us in investigating GCA cities (BoP in particular) then that would sheer off ~100-120 gold. That would leave us with 180 gold, which is only enough for 3 upgrades...

	26-11-2003 11:02									#46
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I don't think we should be wasting more gold on investigations.

Build the irresistable force and then end this. Scuttle about in the mean time nipping at secondary objectives. However, stop wasting our gold on needless investigations. here is why...

Arne and I agreed last turn on an impulsive advance. Intel in that situation was a vey good thing to get. From what it reveals, well worth the expense. However, we now know what they have. We have the bench mark.

After healing, how many MIs do we have? How soon can another 5 or 10 or 15 be added? In that time, what can GCA add to what they have? Do we have enough? If yes, then go straight at them. If not, then wait longer.

btw, we have 10 MIs now. In 3 turns we have 14 and another 5 horse and 4 cats. Is that enough? I think yes. I am wondering how much we have been spooked by the 8 pikes we have spied. Please, run the sims with 3 more pike added, but 13 units added on our side.

More than anything else, let us see what the save presents to us, and then we can make some decisions. Our oppo is going to do something. They will not just sit there. We need a plan based on what can happen, not what the situation next to Catcholpois was last turn.

	26-11-2003 12:13									#47
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I agree that more investigations will not help us now, at least not until such a time as we ARE about to attack. The investigation that kicked off this thread turned out to be worth it, but we don't need any more if we attack within the next few turns, as they can have few more units get there over that time. No other city is of immediate interest to us.

nye certainly has a point with the few extra forces we will have arriving - it sounds like they could turn the tide.

This idea of cutting Iron and going for Warriors is interesting too - if our assault fails we will need to regroup quickly, and this could be just the way of building up 3-4 extra units per turn.

When attacking Catch, how many MIs will we allow ourselves to lose without gain before we decide that we need more forces? We certainly don't want to kill ourselves on Catch, as we will then have to backpedal. It is certainly true that, although we hope for good luck and plan for fair luck, the RNG could always give us extremely bad luck on our turn too. We could have the Cats mostly miss, and/or lose many MIs with little damage done to GCA. If we DO lose around half of our MIs without sufficient gains then having a group of 3-4 Warriors built per turn over 3 turns would be of advantage. This number is about how many we would be able to instantly upgrade, excluding barb hut loot, and thus we could reinforce a depleted SOD within a few more turns.

The idea of unhooking Iron and building Warriors for a few turns for upgrade sounds like a generally good back-up plan to me, and we should certainly think about it carefully in the case we do end up worse for wear after the attack on Catcho.

	26-11-2003 12:31									#48
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I'm liking Trip's new plan quite a bit...

As for spending money on investigations, I've actually been AGAINST every single investigation I think we've blown money on this game other than THIS ONE, which I think was worth every single gold of its 66 gold price for the change in attitude it has resulted in regarding the wisdom of our previous strategy. In general, I think the mentality of many is to burn a hole in our pocket eveyr time our cashflow is positive and I greatly dislike that, but in THIS CASE, I think the money was well spent.

	26-11-2003 12:32									#49
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I'd hate to have to use our gold for that. Maybe the additional forces will be enough...in 3-4 turns. Maybe this is moot since GCA may abandon anyways. But, we need to have a plan in place for both occurances.

If it means waiting 3-4 turns for addition forces, do we back out now only to re-advance? Or do we stay put and fortify now and ping continously with the Cats, hoping to take out the Barracks or Walls (they may try rushing some), or just some of their population? Do we take the chance of them continuing to have very good luck against us by allowing them to go on the offensive agaisnt us? I mean, we are on a hill, we have to take what they give us this turn, but next turn, we can be fortified, gaining another 50% defense bonus.

Or, do we go ahead with the Fort at 7-4 of Catch...this also gives time for the reinforcemnets to arrive in Inevitable....we have many options. Should we post a poll on these ideas? Or do we wait til we get the save before we decide? I think we should decide now.

	26-11-2003 12:36									#50
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quote: Originally posted by roadcage Consider moving off to threaten another city. If the relative strength numbers we have gleaned from CFC, have any basis, there really can't be much besides what is in Catch.

Agreed. We need to seriously consider attacking BoP and GCA's other cities. Let those Pikemen stay in Catcho, and keep our stacks out of their horses' way. I don't think the other cities will have much defense. If we can cut off their supply lines (luxuries, horses and iron) we'll have the advantage again. In the meantime, we can build up MIs and prepare for one final assault on Catch.
Another benefit: we can cut off CFC from BoP.

The gold in the last turn was well spent, and maybe we should have CFC or CGN investigate BoP to see how many units are left outside Catch.

	26-11-2003 12:38									#51
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If we DO build a fort city near BoP/Catchopolis and we DO decide to try and attack BoP at some point with 8 or 10 Horses, we may have a shot at capturing the city if there are only 1 or 2 Pikes there (which we would only be able to find out by having CGN investigate the city for us).

Investigating cities for the hell of it is indeed a waste, but in that case we either A) know that BoP is weak and have a shot at capturing it with a few Horses, or B) know that BoP has a sizable force in it and that will be draining Catchopolis of forces they would have there. That information is as useful as the 66 gold we just spent on this investigation of Catchopolis.

	28-11-2003 11:05									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Fried-Psitalon I really don't understand why people think Catchopolis is going to be abandoned: "They know they're going to lose it anyhow?"

Care to make any other predictions Nostradamus.

quote: Originally posted by Fried-Psitalon Um. We *CANT* take that city right now. That's out. "There are better defensive locations for them to make their final stand." Uh. Where exactly do they have another hill city with reinforcement routes running to it from multiple locations? Unfortunately, GCA has planned this course of action from day one - wither, retreat, hammer back (with their remarkable luck), and gather for a counterstrike. We've walked right into it, pleased with our success to this point. It is very fortunate that we got that investigation in, else we would have butchered ourselves on the walls of Catchopolis, and then we would have been on the defensive, or at the very least in an ugly production war. It may be that GCA knows this war is about to go into "industrial frenzy" and is in fact producing settlers with the hope of getting more industrial production centers. Surely, a curious strategy on their part, but they've done very well with... curious strategies... to date. They can place them west, because after all, CFC hasn't done much lately, have they? (At least as far as they know.) GCA's backbone is centered in Catchopolis, and if we want to once and for all break the back of GCA, we will do it here, just as we predicted their last stand would be so long ago: Algalord or Catchopolis. That hasn't changed, no matter how much we may WANT that change to have occurred. If you go back far enough through the threads, you'll find a post about expecting your opponent to play intelligently and presenting you with your worst case scenario written by someone. ::Cough:: Let us not now continue to take our opponent for granted, and let us begin investigating what the worst case of what they could do to US is... boating incidents, anyone? GCA is NOT stupid. While the momentum is not theirs, it surely is no longer ours. Let's not forget that while they may have remarkable luck, they are still intelligent people sitting behind it, making our task all the more difficult. [b] GCA knew this day would come, and we nearly walked into it. [b] Now, if you were GCA, what is your next move? THAT should be our biggest question.

Let's try to work on a new theory that fits what GCA has actually done and fits their previous moves; that's what I usually do...

Care to make any other predictions?

	28-11-2003 11:28									#53
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Taking revenge on F-P for calling that CoC? How childish ...

	28-11-2003 11:52									#54
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That is not why I called his post forward. He says in his post, relativley snidely, that no one on this team should think GCA would do such a thing. He posted hypothetical quotes about how some (including me) thought that GCA would abandon Catch and then proceeds to us why we are wrong to think that.

I'm simply calling him on that, nothing more. I could care less about the CoC. I was planning on not runing again way before that ever came to light. Ask Trip if you don't believe me.

If F-P wants to rant about how and why certain people want to think and then make long drawn out posts as to why their logic is flawed, then why can't I call him on it when he was in fact wrong about it?

	28-11-2003 12:10									#55
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I think it is I who F-P alluded to actually. :cough:

And I did not reply to him because he is/was right, except for...

The feeling of the situation and the appreciation of how far GCA will go to spite us/hurt us/deny us any gain.

I felt GCA would abandon because they could not assure themselves of not losing. I took into account the vehemence of GCA's feelings about us and against any chance that we profit from this war. I was fortunate to be right by taking people into account, as was BF.

F-P was right too, though. There was no good strategic reason for GCA to do what they did, and he said it. There is no harm in stating what is valid from a particular PoV. One just has to consider that there may be other P'soV with other agendas, and never assume that what is obvious will happen.

Cheers F-P. You make us all think a little bit more, and that is valuable.

	28-11-2003 12:28									#56
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Whatever your reasons were, BF, that "Care to make any other predictions Nostradamus." sounded very rude to me. I don't think we need this kind of remarks inside the team. If you asked me, this is even worse than calling our opponents "cheating asses".

The fact that Catcho was abandonded doesn't make you a genious or F-P a weak player. It is comments like yours that discourages people in participating actively with their own ideas, as stupid as they may be or seem. Like nye wisely stated it: "There is no harm in stating what is valid from a particular PoV." Now, wouldn't it be better to encourage different PoV rather than discouraging them? Isn't the diversity of opinions and PoVs what makes our team valuable? (along with great civ3 playing skills, of course)

Just my 2 cents.

	28-11-2003 12:42									#57
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My point is that his first post was in fact discouraging people from thinking what I did. Tell me where in his posts it says it is possible for GCA to abandon Catch. His post says it won't happen, period. I'm not saying my idea was genious or his dumb...I'm saying that he said that about mine (or others) in that post of his. I also guess you didn't notice the little winks at the end of the sentences, I was not trying to be rude. I was just pointing out the fact that he was wrong and that his post felt insulting to me.

I don't are how many PoV's there are on any subject in this game. I will hear them all and I will either disagree with them or not. I do not discount other peoples PoV's because they do not coincide with mine. I've had my mind changed on plenty of occasions. I've also been wrong on plenty of occasions.

	28-11-2003 20:02									#58
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To be honest, I'm rather stunned that they raized Catchopolis myself. Though they have raized other cities before this, those at least made SOME SENSE given that they could not have possibly won battles to defend them. Raizing their capital city when they had an ability to hold it against any assault by our army they could see next to it just seems utterly stupid to me... they could have holed up in there and performed hit-and-run attacks with their "luck" on our siege force as long as they wanted until we stormed and lost most of our army.... why they didn't honestly baffles me.

I guess that a team which only built 2 workers or whatever can only make up for collective stupidity so much by using "luck". That said, can anyone think of a good reason they'd do that if their intent is really to maximize the harm to us? There was NO WAY they were losing that city this past turn...

	28-11-2003 20:23									#59
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There was a statistical chance that we could have took that city on our turn, thus they "calculated" we would take it. Most people on our team think they at least reload. They likely think the same thing about us. Someone who cheats thinks that everyone else does as well. They despise us so much that they vowed to never let us gain "anything" from the war. Yes the chances were slim that we would have taken the city, but since it could have happened GCA could not take the chance at letting us gain a Great Wonder. Was it a logical choice based upon statistics? No. I believe it was based upon hatred of Apolyton and the belief that we reload as well.

Arnelos, why do you say there was "no way" when in fact there was a way? If Inevitable had more Horsemen in it, then our chances for sucess against Catch goes up. GCA didn't know how many we had there. There were only 3, 2 were injured....but GCA could not take the chance of losing Catch to us, it would have cost them too much and demoralized them. They made a pledge to not allow us any gains. If we make any gains, in terms of cities and theri holdings, then they have failed that pledge and the game loses something for them.

	28-11-2003 20:40									#60
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They have pulled 1, maybe 2 settlers out of Catch. I think, the best way they can continue to be active, and hurt us still, is to settle on that Island that is SW of CFC, and to keep at war with us and keep us in WW.

E_T