25-11-2003 05:08									#1
	Discussion: The Siege of Catchopolis Increase the size of your Attachments

First, here is the log of our the discussion thusfar in chat between myself, BigFree, Trip, Master Zen, and MrWhereItsAt.

Please read the following (or at least skim the pertinent parts) and then please, if you wish, take part in discussion of what we should do this coming turn (with the caveat that we do not yet know how many of our own units we might lose on GCA's turn, of course).

We probably have several days to discuss this, so there's good reason to hash this out with the full team's participation, especially when the decisions are likely to be as critical as they will be for the team.

Next post will be the log (since it won't fit in this post along with what I've just written).

	25-11-2003 05:10									#2
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

quote: Arnelos> Trip - you there? Arnelos> OctX is offering us an investigation of Catch Arnelos> you certainly have my sanction if you want one... do you believe we need it or will it not matter? I think it would be HIGHLY useful before we throw our entire army at them... Arnelos> I need your input on this * Arnelos speaks softly, but slaps Trip around with a big stick! Arnelos> cost is 66 gold according to OctX Arnelos> I need input on this... I also posted in the turn thread Arnelos> gotta go grab some food... be back in just a bit * Arnelos is now known as Arnelos_food MrWhereItsAt> We got BAGS of gold - I say go for it! How soon before the attack? * BigFree|Away is now known as BigFree BigFree> Catch will most likely be abandoned next turn BigFree> no need to spend the gold on it BigFree> Thats why they they have been building settlers out of it BigFree> they want to get as much out of it as possible before leveling it * MasterZen has joined #apolytonisdg * ChanServ sets mode: +o MasterZen MrWhereItsAt> Maybe, BF. MasterZen> or maybe not :P * MasterZen has no clue what you guys are talking about... BigFree> [14:42] BigFree> Catch will most likely be abandoned next turn BigFree> [14:42] BigFree> no need to spend the gold on it BigFree> [14:43] BigFree> Thats why they they have been building settlers out of it BigFree> [14:43] BigFree> they want to get as much out of it as possible before leveling it MasterZen> very plausible BigFree> [14:25] Arnelos> OctX is offering us an investigation of Catch BigFree> 66 gold is a waste Trip> why do you think that? * MrWhereItsAt thinks we should have kept MZ in the dark and just confused him BigFree> we need that money for defeicit research later Trip> if they have enough Pikes there they can DEFEAT us Trip> like I said in the thread I suspect they have at least 8 Pikes BigFree> They dont, thats why they are going to abandon it Trip> you don't know that BigFree> Yes I do Trip> um Trip> no you don't MasterZen> Catch is what size now? Trip> 5 Trip> I strongly suggest we investigate Trip> STRONGLY BigFree> They grought down the size of Catch on purpose, losing the 50 % defense bonus. They would not do that if they planned ot make a stand there MasterZen> its very likely they are doing what BF is saying, but of course, they might still hold it if they think they can damage us elsewhere too MasterZen> BF, they might also rush a wall Trip> are CFC and GCA at peace now or what? Trip> yes, it's highly possible they've pop rushed 2 Pikes recently BigFree> Walls can be brought down more easily than the population can...if that's theri train of thaought, then it jumped the tracks. MasterZen> how much $$ do we have? Trip> over 300 BigFree> 350 something MrWhereItsAt> But they may jsut as easily have their pop go up again before we can attack. MasterZen> bah, 66 is ok Trip> yes MasterZen> better be safe than sorry Trip> we should spend the 66 BigFree> well, they would need it to go up by two before next turn WIA Trip> they could add 2 Workers MrWhereItsAt> We have to focus on Catch - as nye says we are still at war and still need to defeat GCA before all else Trip> yes Trip> I agree BigFree> Sure, that makes sense, build settelr, then add workers Trip> does CFC have the save now? BigFree> Yes Trip> BF: they could have pop rushed a Pike... BigFree> I doubt it, Catch was at least 10 if not 15 spt at size 7 Trip> certainly not 15 Trip> they would need mined hills and Republic for that BigFree> still, why give that up if you were not planning on abandoning it MrWhereItsAt> Unsure of that, but we can;t conclude it will be any easier from that. Trip> they could have popped a Pike when it wouldn't have been done for 2 more turns and then added pop back with Workers MrWhereItsAt> True, it makes sense, but it just seems like a helluva risk to trust in instinct MasterZen> GCA might be planning holding it while retiring their offensive units. That way we'd luse units in the attack and they might counterattack later. It's a possiblity, among many others Trip> thus they get an extra vet Pike and same defense advantage BigFree> Trip, didn't you say we would hit Catch with Cats for two rounds efore atqtacking Catch Trip> only to reduce the population BigFree> My bet is on GCA abandoning Catch next turn * Arnelos_food is now known as Arnelos_eating Arnelos_eating> hey MasterZen> their strategy so far has been to retreat/counterattack, withering our forces. I don't see them changing tactics into forcing a major engagement (that they know will lose) MasterZen> BF, its a likely scenario but I think the 66g is worth it just to be sure Arnelos_eating> MZ - it may be different for their capital... which is on a hill Trip> Octavian_X> Do you guys think you need an investigation of Catchopolis? Trip> 4Do we ask for an investigation now or not? Trip> (obviously) I say yes BigFree> Take a vot MasterZen> I vote yes too Arnelos_eating> look... I'm normally arguing against the whole "burn a hole in our collective pockets" mentality around here when net gold is above zero... but in THIS case, I think it's 66 gold well spent Trip> 3 for yes MasterZen> WIA? Trip> 3 of 5, that's already a majority :P Arnelos_eating> which doesn't matter jack Arnelos_eating> where is NYE? Trip> yes, I agree BigFree> Plus, how many units could GCA have outside of Catch...this investigation proves nothing since GCA plays after this investigation and before we do. Trip> BF: they had those units in Algalord, remember? Trip> even Horsemen BigFree> That was then, this is now Trip> which could have attacked from much further away MasterZen> then could repeat itself now BigFree> All Im saying is that this investigation guarantees nothing Arnelos_eating> what we need right about now is knights BigFree> except to be 66 gold poorer Trip> or Sipahis :P Trip> anyways, we have a majority MasterZen> Trip> I'm telling Octavian to go ahead with the investigation BigFree> Trip, you are not Consul nor FAM Arnelos_eating> Trip - do not yet MasterZen> where is nye :P MrWhereItsAt> I agree too - not that my vote counts for anything more than yonder average Joe member BigFree> Ask oct how long they can wait for an answer Arnelos_eating> yes MasterZen> FAM gives the ok, but ask oct first Trip> NYE usually does not show up until late at night, and that's usually when a turn arrives as well Trip> Octavian_X> We need one very, very soon. Arnelos_eating> this is 66 gold of our money, so the decision needs to come from the consuls... we need NYE to weigh in or BF and I to agree MasterZen> c'mon its just 66 frigging gold pieces Trip> no kidding Trip> geeze MasterZen> and by the way, 4ask OctX why the **** they are at peace! Trip> because nobody has attacked anyone else :P Trip> GCA gets a happiness boost when CFC declares war MrWhereItsAt> So they can do this for us... Trip> anyways, like I said... Trip> Octavian_X> We need one very, very soon. BigFree> Why wont we need the 66 gold for research later on? MasterZen> because we need to kick GCA ass asap? Trip> 66 gold probably wouldn't even be a full turn Trip> besides BigFree> ask them to split cost Trip> what do you THINK NYE would say? MasterZen> lol! BigFree> 5:7D1 MasterZen> they are not going to split cost :P Trip> NYE had us change from Markets to Galleys to defend from GCA Trip> do you think he'd favor saving gold for research or investigating? Trip> and don't fool yourself BF :P MasterZen> Octavian_X> We essentially need to declare this turn to continue our advance on Lucky Harbor. MrWhereItsAt> Built an OUTPOST?! Wasting a worker?! Trip> yes MrWhereItsAt> They're CRAZY Trip> didn't you see the map? :P MrWhereItsAt> No - haven't dled the save yet MrWhereItsAt> At work, you know... BigFree> Its not that crazy if it forces CFC to declare war.... * Arnelos_eating is now known as Arnelos MrWhereItsAt> Speaking of which....BRB BigFree> Go ahead with the spending of our 66 precious gold reserves....5:7(1 Trip> :P Trip> gold is cheap MasterZen> so, we can say yes now... BigFree> yes, you can say "yes" Trip> okay Trip> letting him know Arnelos> I suggest that we post a log of this internal chat regarding the 66g payment so that everyone's positions on this are clear Arnelos> (and that should explain why we did it, etc.) MasterZen> yes Arnelos> I'll go ahead and do that MasterZen> god bless citizen participation in our glorious democracy Arnelos> MZ - if you wanna go ahead and post a log of the chat with OctX in the FA thread, be my guest MasterZen> let's wait till it finishes Arnelos> ok Arnelos> mwahahahaha!!! KOTOR just arrived in the mail! Arnelos> about damn time! Arnelos> gotta post the log first... MasterZen> now watch as Arnelos dissapears for the next 2 months playing it... BigFree> HAHA Arnelos> nah MrWhereItsAt> Yikes! Another new COnsul needed so quickly? Arnelos> the SP campaign is apparently only 20 hours MrWhereItsAt> Is my old position really that bad? BigFree> 5:7P1 MrWhereItsAt> Apparentlys can be decpetive Arnelos> besides... we just sent off the save... we should get it back by this time NEXT WEEK... I'll have plenty of time to play through this game 4 times by then MasterZen> Octavian_X> They've got horsemen galore in there... MasterZen> guess it was kinda useful... BigFree> yeah, sure... BigFree> 5:7P1 BigFree> lets get that screen posted MasterZen> [17:26] Octavian_X> 8 pikes MasterZen> [17:26] Octavian_X> one damanged MasterZen> [17:26] Octavian_X> horse MasterZen> [17:26] Arnelos> Trip was right MasterZen> [17:26] Octavian_X> 2 med infs. Trip> told you :P BigFree> Catch will be abandoned next turn Trip> o_O MasterZen> guess it 4WAS 1 kinda usefull Arnelos> they have 8 pikes on a HILL... you honestly think they'll abandon? MasterZen> hell no Trip> I was afraid of this BigFree> Yes, because they cant control that combat Arnelos> this is a good point Arnelos> they might run away at least with the horses MrWhereItsAt> 8 Pikes, 2 MI, 5 Horse on a hill - that's still pretty damn nasty... MrWhereItsAt> Horse army! Arnelos> I think they'll keep the 8 pikes in there MasterZen> I bet they're going to pull out the med infs and horses MasterZen> make us attack... Trip> I think they'll attack with everything they've got... MrWhereItsAt> Thank God this isn;t C3C! Trip> :P BigFree> Yes, they will attack, then abandon Trip> with 8 Pikes? MasterZen> BF, and WHERE will they make a stand with those 8 pikes? its lunacy to do so elsewhere BigFree> How many MI's, Horse, NM's we got there now? MasterZen> this is a city on a hill, plain and simple. It's PERFECT for defense Arnelos> BF - I can get that for you real quick Trip> the NMs are probably all toast BigFree> I agree, to a point MZ, BUT, GCA said "we will not let you gain anything" Trip> if they beat us, we don't get anything... BigFree> If we get lucky, we could catpure Catch MasterZen> if they wither away at our army, we don't gain anything either BigFree> GCA wont let that happen MrWhereItsAt> Dammit! Need to login with Admin privileges to open C3C... back shortly... BigFree> GCA is being spiteful, no? Arnelos> 7 NM, 9 MI, 5 Horse, 9 cats * MrWhereItsAt has left #apolytonisdg MasterZen> 4quicke poll, who thinks GCA will abandon Catchopolis? Trip> only 9 MI? BigFree> I thought we had more than that as well..... MasterZen> BF: being spiteful isn't synonymous with giving up a chance to cause us BIG damage BigFree> Not, but it is with preventing us from getting the GL andd their Capital Trip> Arnelos: NINE MIs? BigFree> They cant do both Arnelos> I believe so Trip> what happened to the rest? Trip> we had like 13 or 14 Trip> if all we have is 9 then we're screwed Trip> MI vs. Pike is a 35% chance of winning Arnelos> Beta, Makahlua, wervdon, Jean-Luc, Igor, Donald, Robin, Hack Aidun BigFree> I counted 10 MI's on Catch 7-8, before our turn * MrWhereItsAt has joined #apolytonisdg * ChanServ sets mode: +o MrWhereItsAt Arnelos> 10? BigFree> yes BigFree> Did you not move them all? BigFree> to cvatch 7 Arnelos> yes Arnelos> everything at Catch 7-8 was moved to Catch 7 other than 2 workers Trip> we need at least 15 MIs to have a 50+% chance of winning Trip> EVERYTHING? MasterZen> 9-10... same bloddy thing :P Trip> nothing is covering the Workers? Arnelos> I agree that against 8 pikes, unless we started using GCA's own "luck", we won't beat that Arnelos> Trip - workers moved back to Inev Trip> oh Arnelos> several people suggested the move, nye eventually agreed with it as well. We were honestly more worried about GCA trying to flank us with horses headed north than that they'd have an army that large in Catch itself. Trip> well, we can't attack MasterZen> 4quickie poll: should we reload? LOL! Arnelos> MZ - save already to CFC Trip> of course :P MasterZen> so, GCA has gotten FOUR leaders... MasterZen> this is hilariously ridiculous Trip> we can't beat them at Catchopolis Arnelos> no, not yet Arnelos> we need those reinforcements Trip> we should have triggered our GA when we had the chance... Arnelos> agreed Trip> we also need more MIs Arnelos> also agreed Trip> lots more MasterZen> nah, we might need it later... Trip> MZ: not more than we need it now... Arnelos> MZ - we need our GA to have started about 6 turns ago right about now MasterZen> you never know.... Trip> all I know is that we REALLY REALLY need it now BigFree> I count 10 MI's, 5 Horse, 7 NM's, 8 Cats at 7-8 of Catch before out turn. There was alos another Horse in Inevitable that could make it to Catch 7 to make it a total of 6 horses. Trip> we should switch all military builds to MIs immediately MasterZen> during WW1 everyone thought it was the war to end all wars... Arnelos> BF - the horse in inevitable did make it to the stack Trip> no, they thought that AFTER the war BigFree> Ok, we should run the numbers Trip Trip> and real life diplomatic politics are a bit different from Civ :P Trip> BF: there's no way in hell we'll beat them :P Arnelos> pointless discussion... MasterZen> what I'm saying is we still have GWT and CGN to beat... Arnelos> we need that damn GA Arnelos> or at least need SOME way to give us a shitload more units Trip> unless we defeat GCA we're stuck as a 2rd rate power the rest of the game Trip> 2nd Arnelos> agreed with Trip Trip> we won't even have CGN and GWT to worry about BigFree> To attack with we will have: 4 10 MI's, 6 Horse, 7 NM's, 8 Cats Arnelos> unless we win this war, saving our GA doesn't do us **** BigFree> We could take Catch with a little luck and using our NM's to finnish the attack Trip> BF, you don't get it :P Trip> vet MI against vet Pike we win 1/3 of the time BigFree> shut up Trip, because I do get it MasterZen> oh boy, here we go again... Trip> well, if you send us to attack next turn I'm quitting the team Arnelos> oh boy... Trip> because we'll be screwed anyways, and I won't have an army left to do anything with BigFree> Good, bye bye Arnelos> I doubt nye will want to attack on those odds, either * MasterZen does not want to attack with these odds BigFree> did you run the odds even? Arnelos> hmm... Arnelos> we need to do that Arnelos> BF - we need to do that BigFree> you are saying "odds" and you haven't cheaked them Arnelos> agreed, they need to be looked at MrWhereItsAt> Is that on hills, fortified? Arnelos> yes MasterZen> BF, the odds are pretty clear even if you don't run them MasterZen> vet Pike forted on hills BigFree> If we have a 40% chance or better, then we should go for it MasterZen> hell no BigFree> Hell yes BigFree> That the GL!! Arnelos> this is an odd situation... BF may have something of a point... because GCA has 100% odds if they have the initiative BigFree> Exactly Arnelos> I hate that that is part of the equation, but it is Arnelos> we need mongoose to check those saves MasterZen> if GCA gets another round of extraordinary good luck I WILL GO BALLISTIC BigFree> Put you crash helet on MZ, it will happen Trip> 10 vet MIs have a 1.4% chance of killing 8 vet Pikes MrWhereItsAt> What if there is 1 hp of damage to each pike, or at least some? Arnelos> MrWIA - yes, that's what needs to be looked at... we have more than 10 MI there... that said, they have more than 8 pikes Arnelos> and the cats will fire first, of course MasterZen> I still think it's suicide MrWhereItsAt> Nevertheless, without every Cat hitting and hitting a unit that will not change the odds very much. Arnelos> btw... PTW 1.27 still uses something near a 30/30/20 ratio of buildings/citizens/troops? Arnelos> there's a thread at CFC that had that a while back... need to check that again BigFree> that only adds to 80% MrWhereItsAt> 20% miss Arnelos> no Arnelos> the chance of miss is determined by target type MasterZen> it's proportional Arnelos> I got the numbers wrong MasterZen> 3:3:2 odds Arnelos> no no no MasterZen> ? Arnelos> it's something close to that MrWhereItsAt> 4:4:2? MasterZen> beats me then Arnelos> 4:3:3 Arnelos> I think that's right Trip> you also forget that they have a Pike Army there Trip> prepare to see a 12/12 Pike sitting there Trip> along with 5 other Pikes behind it BigFree> Lets see the screen Trip> maybe more * MrWhereItsAt gurns horribly BigFree> yes, duh, maybe more BigFree> But since you were willing to spend 66 gold on it, then we shoudl use it Trip> we are using it MrWhereItsAt> We were spending the 66 so we would know whether we SHOULD go ahead now or not... BigFree> then why do you say "maybe more" in order to call of the possible attack? Arnelos> are mixed unit armies legal in PTW? I've never tried it MasterZen> yes Trip> no, I am calling it off anyways Trip> the extra Pikes make things even worse Arnelos> then it's possible that our "pikeman army" became a mixed pikeman/horseman army BigFree> Yes, thats what Oct said BigFree> Do we have the screen yet? Trip> Oct said he thought he saw 3 Horses in the army Trip> unless they have a Horse army AND a Pike army, that cannot be true Arnelos> we'll see when we get the screenie, I guess BigFree> how can he "think" he saw? BigFree> I guess it's possible for them to have both BigFree> they are "Lucky" you know Trip> [16:25] Octavian_X> 3 are in a horse army, if I'm not mistaken... Trip> [16:26] Trip> you sure? Trip> [16:26] Trip> we saw 1 vet Pike in an army not too long ago Trip> [16:27] Octavian_X> Dunno. You can't tell which ones are in which army at all from city screens. Trip> [16:27] Octavian_X> It's just a guess. Arnelos> the unit order gives you a good idea Arnelos> in the city screen shot MasterZen> units in an army are not necessarily in order Trip> screenshot is here Trip> 6 vet Pikes, 1 Army with 1 vet Pike, 2 regular Pikes, 1 5/5 Horse, 1 4/5 Horse, 3 4/4 Horses, 1 4/4 MI Trip> actually 1 4/4 Pike Army, 5 4/4 Pikes, 2 3/3 Pikes Trip> they also have a Market in Catchopolis (:dizzy MrWhereItsAt> 1 4/4 Pike Army? Trip> yes Trip> 8 Pikes total Trip> six vets, two regulars Trip> one Army (with the 1 vet Pike in it) MrWhereItsAt> Only 1 MI? Octy got it wrong. Trip> 11 SPT Trip> well, it says "+1 vet med inf." Trip> I don't see any other Med Infs on there Trip> so either the "+1 vet med inf." is wrong or him saying there were 2 is wrong Arnelos> ok, I've made a log of all of the above Arnelos> I'll post it and ask for additional discussion on the issue Arnelos> of course, it's likely that GCA will attack us and kill at least a few NM between now and then, but we can handle that * MrWhereItsAt lamenst the lack of MIs BigFree> Correction to an earlier post:To attack with we will have: 10 MI's, 6 Horse, 7 NM's, 9 Cat's

	25-11-2003 05:42									#3
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I've created a sim of this situation.

First rundown with current situation (only 1 Pike in the GCA Army):

0 Catapults hit.
6 Horses attacked, dealing out 9 damage to various Pikes. 2 Horsemen were lost.
10 MIs attacked, doing a fair amount of damage to most Pikes, killing 3 of them and losing 5. 1 GCA MI was killed and 1 MI was lost to a GCA MI. 4 units killed, 6 MIs lost attacking.

The NMs then attacked, killing 2 2 HP Pikes, 1 5/5 Horse, 2 4/4 Horses and 2 NMs were lost attacking GCA Horses.

Final tally:

Apolyton has 4 MIs, 4 Horses, 5 NMs, 9 Catapults remaining (all heavily damaged).

GCA has 3 Pikes, 1 MI, 2 Horses remaining (all heavily damaged, but will be fully healed for the next turn).

I will run future simulations.

Last edited by Trip on 25-11-2003 at 05:47

	25-11-2003 05:45									#4
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Simulation with GCA 12/12 Pike Army (most likely):
http://apolyton.net/upload/files/Tr...GCAPikeArmy.SAV

Simulation without Pike Army (unlikely):
http://apolyton.net/upload/files/Trip/0000GCA3Pikes.SAV

	25-11-2003 07:00									#5
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I'm not sure why this is even up for discussion- that attack is clearly suicide. GCA knows it, too. That town won't be abandoned - the pop drop was probably them rushing the marketplace. :P

By the time we get the save our troops will be butchered even further; we should pull back to Inevitable and let them grind on us while we prepare another attack with reinforcement.

If we were to attack this turn, we would probably open the save next turn to find our armies almost completely destroyed, given GCA's unusual success rates.

	25-11-2003 07:24									#6
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I agree with FP. Attacking now is not an option

We know where the vast bulk of their army is, why not give them the impression that we are buildingup forces to attack and instead skirt around their view and take everything else they own. (Or let them burn it down)

	25-11-2003 07:27									#7
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Currently taking bets on how many NMs we lose to GCA using pikes to attack. Setting the over/under at 2. (Yes, I'm cynical about those walking colostomy bags not cheating. )

	25-11-2003 08:15									#9
	Inflate your Upload Space

I never liked the idea of becoming too friendly with CGN, at the expense of making a long term enemy of GWT.
An embargo against GWT is not the way to go.

However .....

If we are friendly enough with CGN, can we give them GCA's contact ? CGN can do our investigations which would be far more up to date.
An embargo against GWT is priceless to CGN. We should be able to demand anything we want.

	25-11-2003 08:26									#10
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Trip's results, with all cats missing, suggest that attacking is not such a bad plan.

:written earlier, then pondered. posted now:
I know that the desire to know more than we do can be overpowering, however the gold spent was a waste. Sorry to be blunt, but there it is.

This is the situation.

We are fighting an opponent who is inflicting 100% casualties when we allow them the choosing of the time and place for the battle. When we get a crack at them, we need to take it. If they are still in Catch next turn, then we are going test our luck at the very least. Odds are good that the cats will get a couple of unit hits. Then we will have a 35% crack at each vet pike left at full strength. We will have a 52% chance at each reg when we get through the vets. We will have crushing odds on a couple of horse/mi at the end.

We will lose units in this scenario. However, most importantly, we will destroy units as well. That is the critical bit. We must take our shots at destroying their army when we get them.

Furthermore, as pointed out by BigFree, the chances of Catch being there next turn are slim to none. GCA takes a major risk of losing a significant city with a wonder in it to us if they leave it there and we get lucky. Given their attitude towards us, they are certain to not allow us even the slimest of chances of gaining that city.

So far everything we know tells us that Catch will not be there. We would need to see evidence that their attitude is one other than of scorched earth before we make plans based on them doing other than exactly what they have told us they will do and have done to this point.
:end earlier thoughts:

Now, what stopped me from posting earlier is the case of Algalord. There they did stand. However, if my recollection is correct, then after their attacks on us we had no chance of taking the city unless we got lucky into the 99th or so percentile. IIRC, we lost 2 MIs attacking and won with all others. After MIs we won one/lost one with horse. At that point we saw wounded sword showing. There was him, and horses left. We had 2 warriors, and 2 wounded mercs. If we had won with all MIs, then we would have had wounded units to horse and I still don't think we had the numbers to take the city even if we won every combat. So they stood.

Here, they do not have the numbers to get through our mercs, which at Algalord they did. We have more cats, so the uncertainty is increased. We have more than enough attackers that if we get lucky the city is ours.

My conclusion is that they will not stand. If they do stand, then my thinking about them will change in future.

	25-11-2003 08:40									#11
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I know I'm not as active as nye and BigFree and haven't had the face to face dealings, etc. that they and the FAM have had with GCA, but my opinion is the exact opposite of theirs. I think they will stand at Catch. They almost match us right now in defensive strength vs. our offensive strength...and they have the added advantage of their city being on a hill. If they lose Catch the only logical "stand" they have left would be at BoP and the defensive capablities of BoP are not as good as at Catch. Plus if they lose Catch they've lost a full third of their production power. Whatever the reason for their "luck" against us, they're still losing this war. If they retreat farther then they will have lost plain and simple. Maybe it's just me, but Catch is their best shot at a stand right now. I think the city will still be there next turn, and if it's not then I will bow to wiser heads.

	25-11-2003 08:54									#12
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If they rushed that Market wouldn't we see unhappiness due to it? I see three happy faces as a result of 2 lux and 1 from the slider, and no unhappiness.

Also, they are currently set on a settler. Perhaps they are going to abandon, but are going to syphon every pop point out of the place they can, which is why the heavy defenses. They may not even suspect the consternation they are currently causing us. If they stuck as they are we have to continue to build up.

Further, it would be to our advantage to wait and build up, as not only can they not build up as fast, but they may in fact be abandoning Catcho in the face of our stack. Keep in mind they have no idea how many units we may have 1 or 2 turns from the front, and they may be bugging out with what they can whilst they can, not suspecting this is most of what we have.

If they do in fact abandon Catcho this could be the big blunder we are waiting for, as nowhere else is going to be as tough a target as Catcho is now due to terrain if nothing else.

OTOH, why build a Market at all if you're going to abandon?

This just came to me - could they be depopulating in order to abandon forcing a Palace jump to BoP?

	25-11-2003 09:01									#13
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Or.. you could argue that they where disbanding cities that offered them less than perfect defensive positions.

Their intention may of been to always turtle to Catchapolis...which is the best place for it.

It is very difficult for us to go around it, so they dig in and let us bang our heads on their walls. And their core cities can keep producing replacements.


Why they are building settlers from it is the wierd thing.
That is the only evidence that points to them disbanding Catchapolis. Not previous tactics IMO.

	25-11-2003 09:04									#14
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither Trip's results, with all cats missing, suggest that attacking is not such a bad plan.

In 4 turns of testing with 9 Cats firing each turn, I only got 2 hits total. That's 2 hits out of 36 shots.

Also keep in mind they have that Pike Army there. Add 2 more Pikes and you have a 12/12 Pikeman which will consume quite a few of our units to take down...

	25-11-2003 09:09									#15
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I would just Ping them with the cats.
If everyone is so certain they will abandon, then lets give them the time to do it.

	25-11-2003 09:28									#16
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With further testing with GCA using their Pike Army the average result was them having 1 Pike, 1 MI and 3 Horsemen remaining with us having 4 MI remaining, 4 Horsemen and 3 NMs.

Worst result so far is that they have 4 Pikes left (3 in the Army) and 5 Horsemen left while we have 4 MI, 4 Horses, and 2 NMs.

	25-11-2003 09:45									#17
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I'll bet that scenario also entails us starting our GA. Which I was onnce in favor of delaying, but now it seems GCA will be a tougher nut to crack since all of their luck keeps compounding.

They did not poprush a MP, that is just silly. Catch will not be their last stand. Catch will be abandoned if they don't have more units in Catch than we have attacking units. I'm not sure it's 100% certain it will be gone next turn. They may have some units just outside that will enter this turn, then they will possibly use the "fort all" trick.

	25-11-2003 11:03									#18
	Got spare money?

Trip, in your tests is Catch the capital so that it gets the extra defence bonus? I began tesing, but then my primary computer suffered a... major FUBAR. It is non functional at the moment.

	25-11-2003 11:08									#19
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Having started to post before nye's post went up - where is the CLEAR evidence of the abandonment? They just dropped a couple of pop points - it IS ludicrous that they rushed the Marketplace there - yet they built one. When was the last time we investigated Catcho, and when did it get the MP? If this is recent, it is contradicting the idea they are quitting the city.

I think attacking now, if we get the option, is going to do nothing but stop our advance completely, even reverse it. Further tests with the sims of Trips are giving us bad results far more often than good. IIRC there has been one lucky sim where we took Catcho next turn. If we don't take it, we have damaged units like sitting ducks waiting for whatever Horses they have left to decimate us. And even if we are left with our crippled units, we have gained so little unless we could captialise on it within a few turns. We have no backup force almost at the front, and thus we would have killed many of their defenders at the sake of almost all our attackers, with no real gains. That is a classic Pyrrhic victory. I do not wish to see us suffer such costly victories it ends the war. We have always planned for overwhelming force and we do not have it - is throwing away what we have painstakingly forced our way to build up until now for the slim chance of total victory going to be our policy from now on?

The other alternatice is unpleasant, but the safest way of assuring victory - back off and reinforce. No matter what GCA does, they cannot produce to the level we can, even when not in our GA. With enough units we can take Catcho, and if it gives them time to abandon the city then sobeit. Getting the GL is not worth annihilating our army for - we are fighting for the longterm prospects of ending GCA and owning their land. I would prefer us end up with far too many units at war's end - we can always disband them, whereas if we blunt our attack prematurely we are in deep deep trouble.

	25-11-2003 12:14									#20
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I recommend that we change all current military builds to MIs, then send them down to the front as soon as we can. In 8 or 10 turns time we can have 18 or 20 MIs to attack with instead of only 10, in addition to 4 extra Catapults and 4+ Horsemen. Against those additional forces GCA will be able to muster, what, an additional 2 or 3 Pikes? The industrial advantage is clearly ours. We need to capitalize on that now.

The time for pushing forward not worrying about losses was when we had a 2:1 ratio of units compared to them. At this point in time the ratio of MIs to Pikes is nearly 1:1. What else do we gain from attacking now besides those extra 8 or 10 turns?

Should we fail we lose our army, the 15+ turns it would take to rebuild it and send it south again plus an incredible amount of war weariness. Should we wait to reinforce all we lose is the time it takes. Besides, even if we win we will still take great losses and be very vulnerable to counter-attack.

I agree with MWIA. The time to call upon our vastly superior industry is now. Let us crush them once and for all under the weight of our numbers. Not in a risky gamble which may cost us our entire army should we actually fail.

	25-11-2003 12:14									#21
	Remove this text

DAMN. This is insane. GCA has been busy it looks like. Time to dig in.

I say we wait. Time is on our side since we completely butcher them production wise. Let's built up our army with quite a few more offensive units. Then unleash hell.

	25-11-2003 12:18									#22
	Support Apolyton

Agreed. Reinforce. Fully commit our economy to greater numbers.

Let GCA decide if they want this to be their final stand, or if they will disband the city before we can take it (and the GL).

We cannot risk throwing away our army at this point.

--Togas

	25-11-2003 12:22									#23
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Time to look at this game theoretically:

Situation 1: we get a good run of luck and destroy a significant amount of units. Odds, what, ~1/3?

Situation 2: we lose a lot of units with no significant damage done. Odds, ~2/3 perhaps.

Now the consequences: Should we get lucky and get a good run, this is absolutley NO guarantee we will capture Catchopolis. During all the testing done during the last 2-3 hours in the chat, only one person managed to capture the city... once. That means that even if they are left with a 1-hp horse, they can abandon it, which pretty much nullifies the argument of capturing it.

Now, let's assume they suffer heavy casualties and the attack is a "success". So what? How many more units can they build while our reinforcements get there? not enough to counter this added mass of troops on our side. So what's the great thing about an uncertain major victory now, which is exactly the same as a CERTAIN major victory a few turns from now? Plus, if they move out of catch, they'll make their stand in a city which doesn not have the natural defense that Catch has.

What are the negative effects? If we LOSE we are screwed. Our reinforcements will not be sufficient to make another sustained assault while their damaged units will re-heal instantly thanks to the barracks. We can be facing over 10-15 turns of extra production to field a stack capable of taking them out, during that time they will be stronger.

So, I don't care if the odds are even up to 40% on this. It is suicide. We win nothing that we couldn't win anyway in a few turns with a bigger stack, and we LOSE the possibility of a victory in the short term. It's a no-brainer. DON'T ATTACK YET.

MZ

	25-11-2003 12:50									#24
	Got spare money?

Since team opinion seems to be decidedly against attacking Catchopolis for now, I have formulated a new plan with suggestions from others.

Basically, we use a fort city NW of Catchopolis to try and get GCA to split their forces between Catchopolis and BoP, or they will be forced to abandon BoP and allow us another front to attack them from in addition to taking out one of their final two production centers (giving us an even greater advantage production-wise). In the mean time we build up more MIs and send them south to the fort city in preparation for the final attack on Catchopolis.

You can find further details in the Turn by Turn thread. Please let me know what you think of this plan there.

	25-11-2003 12:54									#25
	Got spare money?

quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit I say we wait. Time is on our side since we completely butcher them production wise.

I'm not sure it is. War Weariness will get us in the end.

	25-11-2003 12:58									#26
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Another thing: It's too bad GCA plays before CFC. Now CFC can't see what GCA has really been building, because GCA could have changed the production box.

	25-11-2003 14:17									#27
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I'm for delaying the attack and outbuild them. Our attack force is quite slim right now (at least compared with the number of defenders).

The fort idea is very good. We will cut the road between Catchopolis and BoP and force GCA to split their forces or abandon BoP. I seriously doubt that they are going to abandon Catchopolis. Catchopopis is their best production center, it has barracks, the GL, lots of defenders ... why would they abandon it? Abandon to retreat where? What are their alternatives?

I have thoguh a worry about delaying the attack too much: isn't there a risk to lose Inevitable due to a culture flip?

Last edited by Tiberius on 25-11-2003 at 14:25

	25-11-2003 16:44									#28
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I have to agree with NYE on this one. My main reason for thinking they will abandon Catch is that they know they can't win. Thus, their main goal now is to deny us large gains. We'll get the land anyway, but they don't want us to get GL. More evidence of the intent to abandon Catch is the pop rushing. The pikes gained don't add more than reducing the city size takes away. Basically pop rushing reduced there forces by 33%(from 1.5x defense to 1x defense). Say they rushed 2 pikes, then they went from[ (4*4+2*3)*1.5=33], to [(6*4+2*3) = 30].

So in fact(assuming all factors =) they have reduced their effective HP by 10%. This doesn't even go into the other units present. This isn't behavior of a team that is planning to defend. Now to be honest, when all other factors are considered they end up roughly equal or slightly ahead on the pikes along. But still certainly break even isn't your desire when you pop rush.

But just fro sake of arguement, lets say they stand.
If they attack us they WILL be weaker. They might not lose any units, but they will have units that are significantly weaker. To let these units heal is simply leting the units that were destroy be destroyed in vain.

If we attack we will cause them loses that they simply can't replace. Even if we don't win we can do great damage to them, damage that will allow the next wave to win that much easier.

Aggie

Edited to mention the effect of other factors in paragraph 2.

Last edited by Aggie on 25-11-2003 at 17:13

	25-11-2003 16:53									#29
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I thought it was established that they did not pop-rush, since there seems to be no unhappiness from it?

Maybe they just don't know that a city larger than 6 gives more defense bonus??

	25-11-2003 17:18									#30
	Put an end to popups!

I may be wrong, but I thought that the effect of walls was meant to apply only for cities with pop 6 max - and only because of a bug (might have been removed, not sure about that) that may not be known to GCA, the 50% defense bonus was present even for larger cities (as an addition to their own 50% defense bonus).

If either of this is true (bug no longer present, or still present, but GCA not knowing about it), then what they do makes sense - under pop 6, they have walls, which have the same effect as pop 6+ - so why not add some more pikes at the expense of population?

I, too, believe this is where they will make their last stand. They do not have any better place to make it. Not allowing us to gain anything is one thing, but being able to understand the situation and their odds is another.

GL is not a big deal ATM - Education is just two techs away. Once discovered, GL will be a hollow trophy.

I am still pondering whether to attack or not. My gut feeling would be to not attack the stronghold, but cut their border cities one by one (by smaller task forces they will be unable to counter because of the big bad stack sitting so close to Catch).

But I am not decided yet, still pondering...