05-12-2003 02:02									#31
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quote: dans, you'll be fine. iirc, you're in your 30s or so. meaning that social security, although it won't really be around for all of your retirement age... you'll actually see it.

We will all be fine, once we raise the retirement age several years. I have a life expectancy about 12 years more than my dad, but only have to work about 2.5 years longer than him to start collecting social security. This isn't quite right.

Anyway, if you're interested, I can go into excruciating detail on this. Suffice to say, we will not have a population crunch, like these other countries are on track to do.

	05-12-2003 02:05									#32
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Well, I don't expect anything less than having to fully pay my own retirement - INCLUDING health.

That prospect is still not enough to find socialism palatable. This insolvent social security thing we keep hearing about in the US is a serious problem. I would rather give up a little bit now and save it for later.

	05-12-2003 02:06									#33
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yea, thats how to get elected, "i'm going to push back the retirement age for SS"

	05-12-2003 02:08									#34
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It's the proper thing to do. Only a couple years for my generation would do wonders for solvency. But anyway, this isn't a thread about American social security!

	05-12-2003 02:09									#35
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right...I got off track, back to that picture of that lovely Italian woman....

	05-12-2003 02:13									#36
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Unless we take action, those lovely Italian women will be an endangered species. Save the Italian women!

	05-12-2003 02:22									#37
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who is that lovely italian woman?

in any case, perhaps pm me the numbers? it certainly doesn't seem like they're going to raise the ss age, meaning that we will be shafted.

there are lots of things that could be done to avoid leaving my generation holding the bill, but it doesn't look like any politician out there now has the balls to do those sensible things. and i'm well aware that other countries are in a worse condition. i'm just not paying for their old people out of money extracted from my paycheck.



what's her name ? i want it now!

	05-12-2003 02:26									#38
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Through my amazing technical skill, I can figure out that it's Monica Belluci.

	05-12-2003 02:29									#39
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I thought all you nerds would recognize Monica as she was in The Matrix!! (edit: that's a new tongue... )

Rent "Irreversible" for a real good movie of hers, rather disturbing though.

	05-12-2003 02:33									#40
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Still growing. About the same as Italy. Higher birth rate than Italy. Lower immigration rate. Finland's population pyramid will look slightly better than Italy's in 25 years. Bad overall, but slightly better.

Nice charts. show me our chart.

	05-12-2003 02:35									#41
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i heard irreversible had some pretty harsh reviews, though, mostly because it had a few elements that memento already did?

	05-12-2003 02:35									#42
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Dan...The IDB is quite interesting...

It says that by 2050, Europes population will be about that of 1973 levels.
How SAD

	05-12-2003 02:44									#43
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Well, it's their own damn faults. Time to start makin' babies!

Do Euros have some aversion to sex or something?

Here's Israel's 2030 population pyramid. Not too bad.

Attachment: idbpyr.pl.png
This has been downloaded 66 time(s).

	05-12-2003 02:50									#44
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See folks? that's how it's done! Don't you just wish you had plenty of fanatical religious muslims and jews like we do?

seriously, the "normal" israeli is exemplary in terms of demographics. IIRC, fertility is around 2.5 Of course, we've got those problematic populations I was speaking of earlier, that make our population grow at a staggering 2% per year! that's like 3rd world levels!

	05-12-2003 02:53									#45
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"Irreversible"

I heard that this movie sucked

I mean the person who told me this is really into sex stuff, not much disturbs him

but he found the 15 minute anal rape scene disturbing enough to (with some other things) ruin the movie for him

Jon Miller

	05-12-2003 02:57									#46
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Here's India...
Russia is too sad to put up If we don't start doing something different, soon Russia will simply disappear and the evil Chinese will take Moscow!!!!!
Dan, how'd you get 2030?

Attachment: idbpyr.jpg
This has been downloaded 63 time(s).

	05-12-2003 02:58									#47
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Yeah, the rape scene was long... Still, I liked it. Sorry no one else enjoyed it. Just fastforward to the end/beginning where you get to see monica naked.

	05-12-2003 03:00									#48
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The Chinese aren't going to be in much better of a situation. Check them out.

	05-12-2003 03:02									#49
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Well buy the time Russia disappears there will probably still be a Chinese population

	05-12-2003 04:09									#50
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quote: I can go into excruciating detail on this. Suffice to say, we will not have a population crunch, like these other countries are on track to do.

DanS:

I had a demographics course last year, interesting stuff.

Care to PM me where you are getting this data?

	05-12-2003 04:13									#51
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I was just thinking, it reminded me of the almost entirely female Earth from Quantum Leap, where the men have all but died out and are needed to help repopulate, so are put into "programs" where they have to inseminate as many women as possible. Just a thought

	05-12-2003 04:23									#52
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a thought? there is a better word for that.

	05-12-2003 04:45									#53
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btw, Dan, the Israeli buraeu of statistics disagrees with yours.

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=IS
your's puts it at around 7.5 million for 2020

the israeli CBS puts it at around 8.5 million for 2020.

	05-12-2003 08:14									#54
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quote: Most Italian women say they want at least two children, but on average have just 1.2,

The doom of that country is the price it pays for it's abandonment of the church's teaching.

	05-12-2003 08:17									#55
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"Besides child subsidies (which seem like a reasonable way of increasing birth rates to me), the other option is to start allowing immigration en masse. I highly recommend this, but some European countries haven't been too hip on this idea."

Yes, but Europe has been doing a very poor job of assimilating new immigrants, many of whom have diffrent social/cultural values from the native population. *cough* Isalmic Republic of Germany*

	05-12-2003 08:51									#56
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That's rubbish Shi,

Just compare the integration of the UK's afro/carribean population to that of the US's.

Immigrants take time to be fully integrated (usually a generation or two), there hasn't been enough time to integrate most of the muslim immigrants (a good analogy would be the Irish immigration into the US 150 years ago - that took time to be assimilated)

	05-12-2003 10:16									#57
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I question the accuracy of the predictions- they seem to assume a constant decline in the rate of change for the next 50 years... when past data shows that the rate of change is anything but constant.

	05-12-2003 10:32									#58
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"Do Euros have some aversion to sex or something?" no, there are other reasons why children aren't being born.

	05-12-2003 10:57									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley I question the accuracy of the predictions- they seem to assume a constant decline in the rate of change for the next 50 years... when past data shows that the rate of change is anything but constant.

You obviously know little about forecasting for these sorts of time periods.

I do not expect that every single year will show a steady change, but it does expect that the broad trend will be the same.

When looking at these predictions you should look at the broad change not the individual data for each year.

If your were to group the data into 5-year averages then you would see a smooth graph on both sides of the current period

	06-12-2003 03:54									#60
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ef: You aren't going to respond to my question about Spain?

quote: the israeli CBS puts it at around 8.5 million for 2020.

And the UN Population Division middle variant puts it at 8.1 million. Only the high variant would agree with the CBS figure. I don't know where the difference lies.