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Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
Emperor
McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 11:22
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From the front of www.msnbc.com/

LAVIANO, Italy, Dec. 3 Christmas this year will be extra special for Antonietta Molinaro. Not only is she about to give birth but she’s also in line for a hefty baby bonus from the local mayor. Perched high in the Apennine hills southeast of Naples, Laviano is edging toward extinction as poor road links and a lack of jobs push the young away in search of a new life. Moreover, Italian women in general are least likely to have babies among European women, a trend that is alarming the government worried about its future pension and healthcare responsibilities.

LAST YEAR THERE were just four new mothers in a population of 1,600. That compares with 70 babies born in 1970, when Laviano had around 3,000 residents.

In a bid to reverse the trend, Mayor Rocco Falivena is digging deep into town coffers and offering couples 10,000 euros ($11,900) for every newborn baby.

"It’s a lot of money, but this is our top priority," said Falivena. "We are talking about the very survival of our town."

Laviano is not alone in its fight for life. Scores of towns the length of southern Italy are dying out.

Between 1991 and 2001 the South had a net migration loss of more than half a million people, while the more prosperous northeast gained some 460,000, according to the latest Demotrends report from Italian demographic research body IRPPS.

But wherever Italians may choose to live, the birth rate across the country is near rock bottom and the traditional stereotype of the Italian mamma and her squadrons of bambini could not be further from the truth.

BIRTH DEARTH

Most Italian women say they want at least two children, but on average have just 1.2, the August trends report said. That’s well below the 1.7 to 1.9 fertility rates of France, Britain and the United States.

Giuseppe Gesano, Demotrends editor, blames inertia within Italian society to adapt to the increasing number of women who study and work.

"The desire for children is still there, but because of practical and economic obstacles couples put it off until either it’s too late or they just have time for one child," he said.

Unlike France and Britain, Italy has so far failed to foster a recovery of its fertility rate. Family allowances are minimal, day care costly and reconciling work and child raising hard to realize.

IRPPS’s Antonio Golini also pointed to the failure of Italian men to take on an equal share of family tasks.

"The most recent surveys have shown the importance of... a widespread counter-culture that considers children to be specifically the private good of women," he wrote.

The end result: Italy has the oldest population in the world, and the government is all too aware of the financial burden that puts on the economy.

Like Falivena, it is planning its own baby bonus aimed at jump-starting the national birth rate.

The 2004 budget package includes a one-off 1,000 euros ($1,200) payment to Italians on the birth of their second child, a measure set to run from Dec. 1 until the end of 2004.

Gesano said quick-fix solutions were not the answer to long-term demographic challenges.

"Italians are not so poor that a one-off payment of 1,000 euros is going to make them have children ... It may convince a few hundred couples to have kids earlier than planned but it’s not going to radically change the birth rate," he said.

Even with a consistent recovery of fertility in the coming years there would inevitably be a serious and growing gap between births and deaths.

ECONOMY FEELS THE STRAIN

The economic ramifications are clear.

Italy’s pension system already swallows some 15 percent of gross domestic product, a figure set to grow with more than 21 percent of Italians aged 65 or over.

The government has laid out pension reform proposals that envisage longer working lives, but it faces stiff opposition from unions which staged a general strike against the measures in October.

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi says it is time for a change of mentality and for people in their 60s to realize they can’t stay at home and put their feet up, but should continue to work.

By around the middle of this century Italy could reach a ratio of three to four deaths for every birth, the IRPPS estimates. Its data showed the population would have fallen already were it not for a steady influx of immigrants.

In Laviano deaths have outstripped births for three of the last four years.

Stark concrete apartments, built after an earthquake flattened the town in 1980, stand empty. The square is silent bar a group of elderly men chatting quietly.

Falivena hopes his incentive will boost the population by around a quarter to some 2000, and has staggered payments over six years to deter anyone looking to make some quick cash.

Molinaro is there to stay and, with not one but two babies on the way, set to double her money.

"They’re two boys," she said. "A lovely surprise."

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:39 Visit DanS's homepage!
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This is a huge problem in Italy, especially. Much of Europe suffers from low birthrates, although in a slightly less acute fashion.

Besides child subsidies (which seem like a reasonable way of increasing birth rates to me), the other option is to start allowing immigration en masse. I highly recommend this, but some European countries haven't been too hip on this idea.

Az is offline Az
King
MACEDONIA - It's the name of the sovereign country to the north of Greece
Apr 2000
time: 07:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:46
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Indeed, a very big problem, esp. in italy. Fertility rate stands at 1.2 IIRC.

Having community services help child bearing mothers is a very good solution. The other thing is working this on a psychological level, such as advertisments etc.

DanS: bad idea.

Jon Miller is offline Jon Miller
Emperor

May 1999
time: 23:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:49
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how about this idea

the size of your pension is dependent on the number of kids you have

like 1 kid = low pension
2 kids = mid pension
3 kids = high pension

Jon Miller

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:51 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Here's Italy's population pyramid in 25 years. Totally inverted. Brutal.

Attachment: idbpyr.pl.png
This has been downloaded 142 time(s).

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:52
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Besides child subsidies (which seem like a reasonable way of increasing birth rates to me), the other option is to start allowing immigration en masse. I highly recommend this, but some European countries haven't been too hip on this idea.


The EU get's 1m immigrants a year - roughly as many as the US (but only 2/3rds as much as a proportion of population)

London, for example, gets more immigrants (relative to population) than New York or Los Angeles

GhengisFarb is offline GhengisFarb
Deity
I want my HAMBURGERS!!
May 2002
time: 23:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:55 Visit GhengisFarb's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Ben Kenobi

Between 1991 and 2001 the South had a net migration loss of more than half a million people, while the more prosperous northeast gained some 460,000, according to the latest Demotrends report from Italian demographic research body IRPPS.


500,000 started the migration but only 460,000 completed it.

That's 40,000 Italians that died in the journey. How sad.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 04-12-2003 21:55 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Well, you have to admit that some European countries are much more resistant to immigration than others. The US immigration rate is 5 times that of France, for instance.

Also, I think that 1 million immigrant figure for the US doesn't include the illegals in full measure, who are revised into the mix after the fact once every ten years.

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:01
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quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Well, you have to admit that some European countries are much more resistant to immigration than others.


True, but this may be changing - just look at the rapid recovery of Spain's population growth, it rose by 0.9% between 1992 and 1997 but by 3.0% from 1997 to 2002.
It is possible that this is caused by migration from two sources - the 'normal' immigration from poorer countries and a 'florida effect' as rich Britions/Germans etc retire there.
This may be why Spains (and Greece's)population growth is much faster than expected but Britian's and Germany's is slower.

quote:
Originally posted by DanS
Also, I think that 1 million immigrant figure for the US doesn't include the illegals.


Well neither does the figure for the EU, your point is?

Japher is offline Japher
Prince
Ook! Ook! Ack! Ack! Ack!
Jun 2002
time: 05:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:04
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I don't think immigration is Italy's problem. There's a good flux both ways; in and out.

I use to blame catholicism for increase pop rates, but Italy proved me wrong. The thing I remember seeing was that the reason Italy was shrinking in numbers was because of the strong family ties. The men live with their mothers as long as they can, sometimes until the mother dies and the man is too old to marry (or just doesn't). This creates no necessity for the men to find companionship, since they are all mama boy's (can't remember the actual word used). No companionship, except with their moms, means no kids.

DanS is offline DanS
Emperor
Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:05 Visit DanS's homepage!
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quote:
Well neither does the figure for the EU, your point is?


I think there are fewer illegals in the EU than in the US. I have more faith in your bureaucrats versus ours on that score. Y'all didn't find an extra 10 million people by accident, now did you?

But anyway, this isn't a discussion about the US, but rather an exploration of Italy's options on getting its demographic house in order. They can use a couple of different tools, one of which is increased immigration (although, as mentioned, Italy's immigration isn't so bad anyway).

el freako is offline el freako
Prince
Bristol, European Union
Oct 1999
time: 05:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:07
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Well, Greece found an extra 0.5m (5%) and Spain an extra 1m (2.5% - the same proportionate difference as US)

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:10 Visit DanS's homepage!
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I DanSed you.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
time: 00:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:13 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Re the snowbird effect, that's an interesting wrinkle. Presumably, Southern Italy is taking advantage of that. I guess the pensions are paid by the origin country.

The Viceroy is offline The Viceroy
Prince
tu mumbai se, mai Bombay se
Nov 2000
time: 05:32
  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:16
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Listened to a really interesting Radio4 article on this very issue yesterday.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/news/shoptalk/index.shtml

Not only Italy, but Germany and France also seem to be having the problem, and the only reason the UK is not shrinking, is due to immigration.

You can actually listen to the radio article from this page, if your interested.

Japher is offline Japher
Prince
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Jun 2002
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  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:17
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I still think the cause is lack of marriages. They still buy homes, they just don't live in them. Here, in the US, people generally get married than buy a home, not the other way around. Perhaps there should be more of an incentive in Italy to get married, and less of an incentive to own a home unless married. I.e. taxation and itemization laws...

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:19 Visit DanS's homepage!
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Click.

Japher is offline Japher
Prince
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Jun 2002
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  Old Post 04-12-2003 22:57
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I have decided that I will move to Italy and do my part to help populate that great country, under one condition; my mate has to be or closely resemble her:



Oh, and my wife has to let me go

Ben Kenobi is offline Ben Kenobi
Emperor
McGregornobi!
Oct 2002
time: 21:32
  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:29
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But for those without wives?



I'm not sure I agree with these subsidies. I don't think that they are going to raise the birthrate enough to get them back to replacement level.

Canada's in the same boat, IIRC, our birthrate is 1.4 children per women.

Pekka is offline Pekka
Chieftain
em seu burro dos pais!
Feb 2002
time: 07:32
  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:36
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IN here.. I believe we are less and less by the day? Not sure..

And that is, because everyone is going for higher educations, no one is having babies before their careers and mid 30s, because if they don't, they'll be poor forever and have to beat people to get food on the table and for the kid.

Having a kid is just too expensive in here. Just that simple.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:43 Visit DanS's homepage!
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quote:
IN here.. I believe we are less and less by the day? Not sure..


Still growing. About the same as Italy. Higher birth rate than Italy. Lower immigration rate.

Finland's population pyramid will look slightly better than Italy's in 25 years. Bad overall, but slightly better.

Attachment: idbpyr.pl.png
This has been downloaded 113 time(s).

Pekka is offline Pekka
Chieftain
em seu burro dos pais!
Feb 2002
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  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:45
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There are less than 150 000 Finnish males between ages 20-24. I'm a REAL catch ladies!

Whoha is offline Whoha
King
The TOC is supposed to be classified guys...
Dec 2001
time: 23:32
  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:46
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The US also has a 2.06 birth rate in conjunction with high immigration.

Q Cubed is offline Q Cubed
Prince
t3h y3ll0w p3ril
Apr 1999
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  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:48 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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japh: who's the girl?

and any country that suffered a baby boom is going to suck when the boomers get old.

like here in the states, where everybody in my generation will be financially raped by the baby boomers who just want it all.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
Jan 1970
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quote:
like here in the states, where everybody in my generation will be financially raped by the baby boomers who just want it all.


We'll be fine. The US is in about the best position of any country in the industrialized world.

Whoha is offline Whoha
King
The TOC is supposed to be classified guys...
Dec 2001
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  Old Post 05-12-2003 01:54
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not with 40 trillion in implicit debt as of today. That number will only go up.

Well, I guess we can ship old people off to France or something.

DanS is offline DanS
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Kickball Capital of the World
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quote:
True, but this may be changing - just look at the rapid recovery of Spain's population growth, it rose by 0.9% between 1992 and 1997 but by 3.0% from 1997 to 2002.


Can you tell me where you got this? My numbers don't match (Census, updated this summer). 1990 - 2005 shows less than 2% growth.

Q Cubed is offline Q Cubed
Prince
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Apr 1999
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dans, you'll be fine. iirc, you're in your 30s or so. meaning that social security, although it won't really be around for all of your retirement age... you'll actually see it.

me? they'll be stealing it out of my checks until i die, but i'll have to fund my own retirement.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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Guess I have to move back to the motherland.

DanS is offline DanS
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Jan 1970
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quote:
not with 40 trillion in implicit debt as of today. That number will only go up.


Believe it or not, almost all industrialized countries are in a much worse situation.

 
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