06-12-2003 04:15									#61
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I'm wondering that too.

The middle variant (let alone the low variant), shows a decline in worldwide population by 2050. I'm also curious as to why they now refer to their projections with much less confidence than when they showed a supposed population explosion.

quote: "Do Euros have some aversion to sex or something?" no, there are other reasons why children aren't being born.

Any other suggestions besides Shi's as to why the birthrates are so low?

What about Poland, DanS? What's the birthrate there?

The poblem with immigration is that if the worldwide population starts to decline, and these countries industrialise, where are the European immigrants going to come from?

	06-12-2003 04:19									#62
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quote: Any other suggestions besides Shi's as to why the birthrates are so low?

Abortion. Contraception. Later marriage ages. But I guess I'd rather stick to the gags denigrating European virility.

quote: What about Poland, DanS? What's the birthrate there?

About as bad as Italy's.

quote: The poblem with immigration is that if the worldwide population starts to decline, and these countries industrialise, where are the European immigrants going to come from?

It won't start to decline any time soon.

	06-12-2003 16:00									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi The poblem with immigration is that if the worldwide population starts to decline, and these countries industrialise, where are the European immigrants going to come from?

Well we'll still have the last fast-growing area of world population (Africa) on our doorstep in the 2050's

	06-12-2003 20:48									#64
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they do about 140k abortions a year.

	06-12-2003 22:13									#65
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quote: Originally posted by DanS ef: You aren't going to respond to my question about Spain?

Not sure what the question was?

Was it whether the home state pays the pension benefits of those who retire there, if so the answer is yes - in a sort of roundabout way.
They get paid from Spainish post offices/bacs transfers and that money comes from the Spainish treasury - but they are reimbersed by the UK government.

	07-12-2003 00:31									#66
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No. The question was where you get those large population increases, when my numbers say that Spain's population went up about 2% overall from 1985-2000.

	07-12-2003 10:11									#67
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DanS:

Slagging Euorpean virility is something Canucks and Yanks have in common.

I see your point about immigration not halting anytime soon, but the AIDS pandemic in Africa doesn't look like it's going to halt anytime soon either.

Heck, infection rates are still increasing here.

	07-12-2003 19:45									#68
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quote: Originally posted by DanS No. The question was where you get those large population increases, when my numbers say that Spain's population went up about 2% overall from 1985-2000.

From (as usual) the OECD

This data (which was last updated 25/9/2003) show's Spain's population growing by around 0.2% a year between 1987 and 1997 but accelerating to 0.6% since then.
Portugal also shows a similar rise - from a slight fall in population in 1987-92 to 0.3% growth in 1992-97 and 0.5% 1997-02.

	07-12-2003 23:13									#69
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My point with the graph is that the existing data isn't sufficient to plot a trend like that. In fact, no data would be. 50 years agp, people would never have anticipated things such as the AIDS epidemic or China's one-child laws.

	08-12-2003 01:06									#70
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Again, you are misunderstanding forecasting methods smilely,

What you are showing in that graph is real data and a medium variant of the forecast.

To show the inherent uncertainty that all these forecasts apply the furthur you get into the future you should really show the low and high variant and share the area inbetween as the expected path.

You will notice that the difference between both the high and low variants grows as time progresses - this is an implicit acceptance of the uncertainty that you say is not included in these forecasts.

	08-12-2003 01:14									#71
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Here is an excel spreadsheet with the graphs embedded.

(Data taken from UN population survey, 2002 revision)

Attachment: world population growth.zip
This has been downloaded 3 time(s).

	08-12-2003 01:20									#72
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ef: Don't know why the sources don't agree. I was going by the July US Census numbers, which don't show this change.

I guess it shouldn't be surprising. The OECD, US Census, and the UN don't agree with each other either.

	08-12-2003 02:18									#73
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quote: Originally posted by el freako That's rubbish Shi, Just compare the integration of the UK's afro/carribean population to that of the US's. Immigrants take time to be fully integrated (usually a generation or two), there hasn't been enough time to integrate most of the muslim immigrants (a good analogy would be the Irish immigration into the US 150 years ago - that took time to be assimilated)

Its unlikely devout Moslems will be integrating into the secular/atheistic European culture.

	08-12-2003 02:30									#74
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quote: Its unlikely devout Moslems will be integrating into the secular/atheistic European culture.

How do you know that?

	08-12-2003 03:13									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Its unlikely devout Moslems will be integrating into the secular/atheistic European culture.

It's probablty no more likely than devout Irish catholics assimilating into the predominately protestant culture of the eastern US - and that after having suffered persecution at the hands of protestants.

You really do make some silly assumptions Shi.

	08-12-2003 03:20									#76
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quote: Originally posted by DanS ef: Don't know why the sources don't agree. I was going by the July US Census numbers, which don't show this change. I guess it shouldn't be surprising. The OECD, US Census, and the UN don't agree with each other either.

Could you post a link to the US Census data?
It's possible that (like the UN data) it does not include revisions from the latest censuses (censi?) that have been done in europe in the last couple of years.

	08-12-2003 03:24									#77
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Thankyou Lord! There is a way out of my celibacy

	08-12-2003 03:30									#78
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quote: Originally posted by el freako It's probablty no more likely than devout Irish catholics assimilating into the predominately protestant culture of the eastern US - and that after having suffered persecution at the hands of protestants. You really do make some silly assumptions Shi.

Differences between Catholics and Protestants are nowhere near as great as between Devout Moslems from a non-western background and athiests.

	08-12-2003 03:31									#79
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There will be assimilation, it will just be the other way around.

	08-12-2003 03:35									#80
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Differences between Catholics and Protestants are nowhere near as great as between Devout Moslems from a non-western background and athiests.

Exactly.

	08-12-2003 05:54									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Differences between Catholics and Protestants are nowhere near as great as between Devout Moslems from a non-western background and athiests.

That's lame even from you Shi, you need to read up a bit on the history of Ireland.

The moslems here in the UK have taken time to adapt (a bit longer than our blacks), but they are assimilating fast as the 3rd generation enters adulthood.


If moslems can assimilate into US society then they can certainly assimilate into the less overtly christian societies of europe.

	08-12-2003 06:53									#82
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quote: If moslems can assimilate into US society then they can certainly assimilate into the less overtly christian societies of europe.

That doesn't follow. Would a devout muslim feel more comfortable on an American beach or a European one?

	08-12-2003 08:15									#83
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American. Moslems have much more in common with Christians than Atheists.

However, my question is how well the children of the Moslems will adhere to the tenets of Islam, after being raised in Europe.