21-12-2003 23:20									#1
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Tom Ridge will speak to the nation at 1.30 pm EST, 10.30 am PST. They expect him to raise the terror threat level.

	21-12-2003 23:21									#2
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Planning something, is he?

	21-12-2003 23:21									#3
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call me a party pooper but isn't the whole "Terror Threat Level" a bit silly. Isn't it "terrorizing" people more than the terrorists?

You are more likely to die from smoking or in a car accident.

	21-12-2003 23:26									#4
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bastards better not interrupt my football.

Or I'll bomb Tom Ridge

	21-12-2003 23:28									#5
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The conference will establish a Terror Threat level so we can scaremonger the colorblind too.

	21-12-2003 23:30									#6
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident bastards better not interrupt my football. Or I'll bomb Tom Ridge

A man with his priorities straight.

	22-12-2003 00:26									#7
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terrorists want to **** with the USA

bring it

	22-12-2003 00:29									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia They expect him to raise the terror threat level.

Why - anything special I missed, or just general caution at x-mas?

	22-12-2003 00:38									#9
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Ridge says, prepared to expect attacks, "more devastating than 9/11"

You know everytime they talk about "increased chatter," SOMETHING always happens.

	22-12-2003 00:39									#10
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Umm, let´s hope they´re wrong this time...

	22-12-2003 00:46									#11
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I am expecting them to hit something in either Saudi or Africa.

Iraq is probably a given as well.

They will make a few attempts against US mainland but will be foiled.

	22-12-2003 00:51									#12
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I'm really getting pissed at them raising the threat level and nothing happens. Yes I know that sounds ****ed up. I don't actually want something to happen. But if nothing is going to happen, then they shouldn't raise the threat level.

We need better intelligence.

We need female secret agents who sleep with the enemy to learn secrets. Throw a burkha on them if that is necessary.

	22-12-2003 00:57									#13
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how they supposed to know when stuff is going to happen for sure

you know when you save files and it asks you "are you SURE you want to save."

well the one time you say "no" is the one time you will actually need the file

	22-12-2003 01:04									#14
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how will they know if stuff will happen for sure?

have women secret agents sleep with Osama Bin Ladin or that 2nd in command guy. Our intelligence program should be more like what the Soviets had. Surely even Osama could use some female companionship.

Of course finding a woman willing to sleep with Osama Bin Ladin will not be an easy task

	22-12-2003 01:11									#15
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Hmm. Something "more devastating" than Sept. 11, 2001? Maybe al-Qaida did get their hands on a WMD.

Gatekeeper

	22-12-2003 01:19									#16
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I can't believe he said that. That's a good way to send people into a panic.

How can it be more devestating than 9/11? I am certain they do not have access to WMD.

And to be more devestating than 9/11 the attack would have to be on U.S. soil I'd imagine. (to be devestating in the eyes of americans that is).

While I outlined great plans for terrorism in the past, they are difficult to pull off. Americans such as I could do it, but I would be less noticed...

Hijacking airliners is the only way. But I don't see them able to hijack airliners so easy ever again.

	22-12-2003 01:26									#17
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I'm really getting pissed at them raising the threat level and nothing happens. Yes I know that sounds ****ed up. I don't actually want something to happen. But if nothing is going to happen, then they shouldn't raise the threat level. We need better intelligence. We need female secret agents who sleep with the enemy to learn secrets. Throw a burkha on them if that is necessary.

Somehow, I don't think loose women is what these religious fanatics want.

What we probably do need is someone who could pass for a religious fanatic themselves. I think such a person would be extremely hard to "grow."

	22-12-2003 01:28									#18
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but not impossible. Hell, a guy in California could do it.

Actually loose women is what these guys need. If these guys got some regular pussie they wouldn't be so violent and angry all the time.

	22-12-2003 01:28									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I can't believe he said that. That's a good way to send people into a panic. How can it be more devestating than 9/11? I am certain they do not have access to WMD. And to be more devestating than 9/11 the attack would have to be on U.S. soil I'd imagine. (to be devestating in the eyes of americans that is). While I outlined great plans for terrorism in the past, they are difficult to pull off. Americans such as I could do it, but I would be less noticed... Hijacking airliners is the only way. But I don't see them able to hijack airliners so easy ever again.

Where could these guys get nukes?

NK? Iran?

	22-12-2003 01:28									#20
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neither country is likely to give them to terrorists.

	22-12-2003 01:30									#21
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I'll bet that we will never go to Condition Red or Blue in our lifetime.

	22-12-2003 01:31									#22
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Why would they attack the US? They've already got what they want, American troops in Iraq.

OBL's strategy has been pretty clear. He thinks he caused the downfall of the Soviet Union by beating it in Afghanistan, and he wants to do the same for the US. Thus he wants to start a guerilla campaign in the Middle East that would result in US withdrawal.

Obviously, one could comment negatively on the feasibility of this nefarious scheme, but that's his strategy, so I assume that any attack will be in the Middle East, probably Saudi Arabia. An insurrection there would be disastrous for the US which already has it's hands full and would turn this into what OBL wants, a pan-Arab war.

This might explain last week's warnings to US citizens to leave Saudi.

	22-12-2003 01:31									#23
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia I'll bet that we will never go to Condition Red or Blue in our lifetime.

I agree about blue, and I mostly agree about red. Though there might be one specific instance I can think of in which we would go to red.

	22-12-2003 01:34									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Why would they attack the US? They've already got what they want, American troops in Iraq. OBL's strategy has been pretty clear. He thinks he caused the downfall of the Soviet Union by beating it in Afghanistan, and he wants to do the same for the US. Thus he wants to start a guerilla campaign in the Middle East that would result in US withdrawal. Obviously, one could comment negatively on the feasibility of this nefarious scheme, but that's his strategy, so I assume that any attack will be in the Middle East, probably Saudi Arabia. An insurrection there would be disastrous for the US which already has it's hands full and would turn this into what OBL wants, a pan-Arab war. This might explain last week's warnings to US citizens to leave Saudi.

I never thought of it in that way. With regards to OBL's desires and strategy. So are you saying he wanted the U.S. to invade Iraq. Perhaps we are playing into his hands then. But that doesn't change the fact he doesn't the the resources to take advantage of us in Iraq.

	22-12-2003 01:41									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I agree about blue, and I mostly agree about red. Though there might be one specific instance I can think of in which we would go to red.

Which one would that be? Or do I have to be of a certain security clearance level to find out?

	22-12-2003 01:44									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I never thought of it in that way. With regards to OBL's desires and strategy. So are you saying he wanted the U.S. to invade Iraq. Perhaps we are playing into his hands then. But that doesn't change the fact he doesn't the the resources to take advantage of us in Iraq.

No, he wanted the US to invade Afghanistan in just the way the Soviets did.

What he didn't bargain for is that the US played it really smart and hired the Northern Alliance to do most of the fighting. This meant less US casualties (which would have been fatal to a US war effort if the war had gone on long enough).

He doesn't have a lot of resources in Iraq, but he doesn't really need them and he doesn't need to do a hell of a lot. A guerilla campaign is really cheap to run, read Che Guevara's book on how to conduct one.

If the occupation continues and the Shias get shut out of the political process things will get more violent. And the more US soldiers die for what appears to be an ungrateful bunch of Arabs, the harder it will be politically for Bush to keep them there.

But that's not the big Kahuna. OBL really wants one thing. To install an Islamist regime in Saudi Arabia - if that happens he wins. The obstacle to this is the Saudi Royal Family. Demographics are on his side, there are many disaffected youth in SA (as 911 showed) and all they really need is to wake up to the possibility of overthrowing the government. A moderately successful guerilla campaign in Iraq is a "threat of a good example".

That's what he wants, whether he will get it is another thing. It is not out of the question though and that is the reason I opposed the invasion of Iraq. Mass unrest in the Persian Gulf would be an economic disaster.

Only one person has anything to gain from risking chaos in the area and that's OBL.

	22-12-2003 01:48									#27
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Well he thought that by killing Masud, he would be able to disorganize the Northern Alliance so it would fall apart. Then US soldiers would have to have been called in. The killing of Masud didnt work, so thats why we were able to use the Northern Alliance.

	22-12-2003 01:50									#28
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quote: Originally posted by The Emperor Fabulous Which one would that be? Or do I have to be of a certain security clearance level to find out?

I was thinking if we knew for certain terrorists within the U.S. had a nuke weapon or similar high explosive device (or WMD) that could kill thousands and were threatening to use it.

But even that would not be enough.

The scenario I envisioned is something you see in movies such as True Lies. A terrorist organization is confirmed to have a nuclear device and threatens to detonate it unless certain conditions are met (such as releasing prisoners or something like that). I would then think the U.S. would go to red- at least for the affected city.

	22-12-2003 01:52									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia Well he thought that by killing Masud, he would be able to disorganize the Northern Alliance so it would fall apart. Then US soldiers would have to have been called in. The killing of Masud didnt work, so thats why we were able to use the Northern Alliance.

That's true and is more evidence for the theory. Thanks.

I'm not saying that his plan is going to work, or that it has a realistic prospect of working, or that it's even that well thought out. It does however, have a realistic prospect of screwing things up in the area.

And given that Saddam Hussein was no threat to anyone, it seems stupid to have taken such a risk.

Why don't people sit down and think about why 911 happened. What did Al Quaeda really want? The answer I think is something close to what I said.

	22-12-2003 01:54									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Dissident I was thinking if we knew for certain terrorists within the U.S. had a nuke weapon or similar high explosive device (or WMD) that could kill thousands and were threatening to use it. But even that would not be enough. The scenario I envisioned is something you see in movies such as True Lies. A terrorist organization is confirmed to have a nuclear device and threatens to detonate it unless certain conditions are met (such as releasing prisoners or something like that). I would then think the U.S. would go to red- at least for the affected city.

Why would Al Quaeda want to do that? They aren't just seeking to kill infidels, they have a plan. It's a dumbass plan, but it's a plan. Nuking a US city would do nothing to further it.