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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001 time: 00:33
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First off, we don't know how long it will be before we get peace with GCA. It might take a while. I do hope it will be soon, but I'm not making anyplans until we know for sure.
As it currently stands, with this last save, IF we were, right now, run at 100% research, we would be at -104GPT. Trip was talking in chat about getting 35GPT from CFC, so lets assume that we get that, we would be at -69GPT.
Now, Theo is 960 beakers, Edu is 1056 beakers and GP is 1152, with everything else going up from there.
Now, at 100%, currently, we make 137 beakers per turn (BPT), so that would mean 8 turns each for Theo & Edu and 9 turns for GP.
We currently have 618 Gold, and can do 100% for 8 turns before we have to change the slider, bringing us close to Zero Treasury.
In about 13 to 15 turns, we will have the FP built, we will also have several new cities, other cities with Higher pops, 2 to 3 Granaries (for River cities) and 5 more Markets (6 total). These will allow us to have a better Research without too much GPT loss (because, realistically, we can;t do 100%). More Raw Trade and more GPT for the bank. After that, Librairies can be built much faster, as the FP will reduce the waste for a lot of those cities.
The thing is, if some (or all) of the MP builds are changed to Libs, they will be built too soon and not contribute anything to the research effort, because we will still have to maintain the minimal research until Invention is done (we have passed the point of diminishing, i.e. no, return). And then, we will still not be able to get 100% research and will have a higher deficit, because of increased maintainance costs with no additional Income.
Granted, the full effect has to be simulated, but the end result is that we need the cash flow now and it will help things out later, when we do get the Extra trade from all of the new things at once.
Our builds take time, but this is the best route to take, over the long haul. The combo of the FP, the higher pop cities, the New cities being built and the Various MPs and Libs will all allow us to have a healthy Research effort.
But lets not change things around, because we think this might fit the plan. I'll try to get my sim posted tomorrow, sometime after work, and people can play with different things. But my experiance says that this is the best overall way to go.
E_T
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:33
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quote: Originally posted by E_T
First off, we don't know how long it will be before we get peace with GCA. It might take a while. I do hope it will be soon, but I'm not making anyplans until we know for sure. |
Because of Karina at the very least this is not a factor in the Market vs. Library issue.
quote: As it currently stands, with this last save, IF we were, right now, run at 100% research, we would be at -104GPT. Trip was talking in chat about getting 35GPT from CFC, so lets assume that we get that, we would be at -69GPT.
Now, Theo is 960 beakers, Edu is 1056 beakers and GP is 1152, with everything else going up from there.
Now, at 100%, currently, we make 137 beakers per turn (BPT), so that would mean 8 turns each for Theo & Edu and 9 turns for GP.
We currently have 618 Gold, and can do 100% for 8 turns before we have to change the slider, bringing us close to Zero Treasury. |
You assume we won't be making any money between now and when we finish Invention to start another tech. At our current GPT, we will end up with another ~400+ gold before we start researching for real. Also, CFC will be gaining more gold during that time as well, which increases further what we will have available.
And not only that, but with Libraries in place the # of turns we have to run at 100% research is reduced. So instead of the final couple turns where we're losing 137 GPT we can reduce research and gain a bunch of gold back. Or, we can tone down research to ~70% and get it done in the same amount of time as doing 100% with no Libraries, but we'll also be losing less GPT.
quote: In about 13 to 15 turns, we will have the FP built, we will also have several new cities, other cities with Higher pops, 2 to 3 Granaries (for River cities) and 5 more Markets (6 total). These will allow us to have a better Research without too much GPT loss (because, realistically, we can;t do 100%). More Raw Trade and more GPT for the bank. After that, Librairies can be built much faster, as the FP will reduce the waste for a lot of those cities. |
Or we can do Libraries first and Markets later. FP, growth, Granaries, etc. help whether we build Libraries or Markets now...
quote: The thing is, if some (or all) of the MP builds are changed to Libs, they will be built too soon and not contribute anything to the research effort, because we will still have to maintain the minimal research until Invention is done (we have passed the point of diminishing, i.e. no, return). And then, we will still not be able to get 100% research and will have a higher deficit, because of increased maintainance costs with no additional Income.
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Libraries will be generating culture now before we start researching for real. Once we begin researching for real (70+%, not just with 100%) Markets won't be contributing nearly as much as Libraries would, if anything at all (at 100%, which we are capable of doing). Isn't there a problem with that?
No additional income? Do you forget how Libraries work? Markets increase the tax income of cities just as Libraries increase the research income of cities. At 60 or 70 or 80 or 90 or 100% research on the slider Libraries give a greater % boost to income than Markets. The opposite would be true if we were running below 50% science.
Also, as I've said before, there is also the non-GPT affecting qualities of Libraries over Markets: generate 3 culture per turn and are 20 shields cheaper, allowing cities to begin building Settlers sooner, speeding up the REX.
I await your sim, and do not make your results biased. It needs to be a fair representation which account for the fact that: 1) we will have 400+ gold coming in between now and when we finish Invention, 2) CFC will be able to build up cash between now and then as well to help us out, 3) Research can either be slowed down or finished quicker than without Libraries: that means if we finish a tech in 6 turns instead of 8 we can be banking our FULL income for those extra 2 turns while having the tech early.
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BigFurryMonster
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EMPEROR of Cats
Feb 2002 time: 06:33
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There is more to this discussion:
Libraries also give you the possibility to build Universities (if you have the appropriate tech).
Marketplaces also give you the possibility to build Banks (if you have the appropriate tech).
Please include not only the present, but also the future in the decisions!
edit: I just read the Tech research thread. From this, it seems obvious (though not easy to pull off): CFC should only build Marketplaces and get us GPT. We should do Libraries and research at 100%. This way, we make use of the fact that, combined, we'll have two sliders to work with.
Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 30-12-2003 at 13:27
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:33
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As I am unable to create an in-game sim, I will do my best to do an out-of-game one with the information available now.
Scenario Setup
Assume that we will have 750 gold of our own and CFC will provide us more later (in addition to an extra 100 of their own stored up, already added to our treasury). However, they do not yet know how much GPT they will be generating under Republic, so we cannot count on a specific amount per turn until we know that. They will be providing us with lump sums anyways, not a GPT deal. The amount of gold we have available isn't really all that relevent for this scenario anyways (all results land within the 750 gold max and all my results show how much gold we spend/save, rather than how much we would have left.
Assume that we have either 4 Libraries or 4 Markets in effect (depending on the scenario) during this time, in Mingapulco, HoD, BFC and Incensity. Before any Markets or Libraries, BFC generates 16 GPT, Mingapulco at 12, Incensity at 10 and HoD at 9. These cities compose 35% of our total income (after corruption, of course).
Assume before the influence of Libraries or Markets that at 0% science we generate 36 GPT. At 100% science we generate -104 GPT and 135 beakers per turn. At 70% we are at -62 GPT and 94 beakers per turn. At 50% we are at -40 GPT and 73 beakers per turn.
Assume we are researching a 1056 beaker tech (Education).
Standard Scenario
Thus at 100% science we end up with a total of -104 GPT. At 135 beakers per turn we finish the 1056 beaker tech in 8 turns, but the eigth turn we only need 24 beakers so we can turn down research the last turn to 20% (gaining us 11 gold). The total cost of this will be ~717 gold.
Market Scenario
100% Science:
At 100% if we have 4 Markets and 0 Libraries, then they will add a total of 0 GPT to our income due to the fact that no tax income is being generated which is modified by the Market bonus.
This scenario’s results are the same as if we had no improvements at all (Education in 8 turns, total cost of 717 gold).
70% Science:
At 70% we will have 30% tax income which is 41GPT. Thus 35% of this value is increased by 50%, giving us an extra 7 per turn. However, at 94 BPT it will now take us 11 turns to get to Education. Over the course of those 11 turns we spend ~609 gold and save 88 gold (from the Markets), losing a total of ~521 gold (assuming 20% science on the final turn) over the course of the research.
50% Science:
50% tax income is 67 GPT. Modified in the same was as before over 15 turns we spend ~560 gold from our tank and make back 180 gold from the Markets for a total loss of 380 gold over that span.
Library Scenario
100% Science:
With 4 Libraries we gain the max benefit. Those cities’ share of 135 beakers is 47 per turn. Library increases that by 23 per turn. Thus with an expenditure of 158 BPT (150 extra overall) we finish Education in 7 turns where we spend 696 gold, but gain back 35 the following turn for a total cost of 661 gold.
70% Science:
16 extra beakers per turn for a total of 152 extra beakers. This gives us 10 turns. -589 gold over 10 turns and -553 gold over 11 turns (comparing with if we have Markets).
50% Science:
12 extra beakers per turn. That ends up giving 13 (12.4) turns again with 150 beakers saved. -440 gold spent over that span and 368 gold lost over 15 turns (comparing with the Market scenario).
Conclusion
As you can see, as long as we run at at least 50% science the gold spent/saved favors having Libraries built now. We can finish the techs faster and turn down science to gain back gold no matter what level of science we choose to run at. The numbers are much closer the closer we get to 50%, but we still end up with an overall advantage. Since Libraries are cheaper and give more culture, even if they gave the same GPT results, that wins them the tiebreaker.
Last edited by Trip on 31-12-2003 at 00:47
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:33
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither
We can only do 50% science for about 12 turns, plus growth, plus whatever CFC gives us. After that we will be below 50% science for some time. |
Yes, but growth and especially CFC's assistance are a pivotal part of our ability to maintain a fast tech pace, which is why the gold situation will be better than what this sim shows (or what any sim can show, since we don't know how much impact CFC wil have yet).
quote: Also, I think we'd be insane to use all cash for research while allowing CFC to wait to give us gold. That would be inviting disaster. |
Which is why we have to get a deal set up with them beforehand, and require them to give us gold in, say, at least 5 turn intervals beginning with once we start Education. We're obviously not going to wait until we're almost done to get the gold from them, or else, yes that would be inviting disaster.
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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002 time: 00:33
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quote: Originally posted by Arnelos
Trip, we need to also be concerned about the impact of switching markets for libraries will have on building the other one during our REX phase (should that be the plan). Impacts of one plan or the other on our growth should be looked at as well. That's going to take more work, though, I'd assume. (well, unless you already did that part, but just didn't report it). |
Unfortunately, it's impossible for me to get tangible numbers regarding the real effects of that. Libraries will get done at different times in different cities, then we build Settlers next (?), then units to replenish pop, then more Settlers, then a Market, then more Settlers, etc. Unfortunately, I cannot determine an exact order of what we'd be doing taking into account SPT values, food balance, etc. without access to Civ 3 (and that would be up to E_T anyways ).
I can make generalized but accurate predictions of how building Libraries first will affect us though.
Currently, every city working on a Library/Market now will be size 6 by the time it finishes its build (excluding Incensity, but I'm not sure all of what E_T has planned for that city, so I will exclude it). Each will also be able to start/continue growing after that point (removing some hills from BFC, Hispanica, etc. to) to increase the food balance. Due to that growth when the Libraries are finished, the first Settlers from them will probably finish about the time when those cities are about to grow to size 7 (HoD, Ming, BFC and probably Hispanica at least) based upon the size 7 and the food balance.
This allows us to get those Settlers out sooner (since, for example, BFC and Hispanica wouldn't be growing until they finished their Market builds anyways) without really messing up the future scheduling.
Now then, further down the road, Markets are indeed more expensive. We will probably want to get these cities down to size 4 or so when we start the Markets, and they will be about ready to go back to size 7 by the time they finish their next Settlers afterwards depending on how fast they're growing. This puts us in a very similar position where we would be after finishing the first Libraries. Food balance is good, expensive builds recently finished, cities about to grow to 7 when the Settlers are done.
Obviously I may not be entirely correct about the timing of all that, but I do know that the sooner Hispanica and BFC finish their Library/Market builds the sooner they can start growing again (they're not growing now). Ming and HoD are affected less, but working irrigated tiles means that HoD will be growing to size 7 pretty quick, and its SPT isn't all that high. So if we finish a Library now instead of a Market, that allows us to contine growing at 3+ FPT without having that extra 4 turns to build a Market affecting things and forcing us to slow growth so that we're not stuck at a full box at size 6.
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Aidun
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The Hague, the capital of the civilized world
Nov 2002 time: 06:33
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Advise form a lurker. ET suggested me to give some comments.
When you spend 100% on science, you have to make sure you are going to build an get a bigger army so your science rate drops. Building libaries is an excellent idea then. Market places, are, as has already been said, for the times that your rate drops. Though they may be less effective at a science rate above 50%, as soon as the rate is well under 100% (I mean 60%, 70% or 80%), they do add some bonus commerce.
So for now I advise to build libraries.
Aidun
Last edited by Aidun on 01-01-2004 at 06:28
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notyoueither
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of naught
Aug 2001 time: 22:33
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Very good post, roadcage.
To any who are interested, I am just about finished a sim for our current situation. I should be finished Jan 1, late afternoon EST (maybe earlier). I will post it here for those who want to tear through it.
There will be some problems inherent in any attempt to sim this out. First and foremost, keep in mind that settlers will be being built with wild abandon and little regard for other factors in the real game over the next 30 or so turns. If you do not do this, and just sit back and research on libraries with full pop, you will not be anywhere close to reality.
Also, I am not sure that even I understand what E_T plans to pull from where and when for this late REX. Consult the city placement for a guide, then place closest to Karina, Apolyton and then the new palace as guidelines to make things more accurate (I would assume).
Finally, CFC just passed the turn on. With any luck it will take more than another day for it to come back to us. If the turn does get back to us tomorrow, I have no intention of it being played prior to us examining this question of Libs or MPs as thouroughly as we need to. There is no reason to rush a turn when we are allowed 24 hours, simply because the turn is here.
We are at a cross roads, ladies and gentlemen. The time invested in war has cost us, heavily. We have no more room for a misstep. We need facts, and a much better understanding of the up sides and down sides to one path or the other than we have now.
We have clawed our way to the point where victory is attainable, but defeat must be held at bay with increasing vigilance. Let us take our time, examine the alternatives, and do what we need to do to get this game won.
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001 time: 00:33
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I'm working on my own sim as we speak. Between, work, turnchats, falling asleep at my computer, general RL, trying to make ends meet and a general feeling of starting to burn out, I've been working on this.
To answer a few questions, I'll likely be keeping the cities sizes down before the Palace is moved (and the last of the cities settled). At that point, I'll be working on getting our pops up in the cities. To this point, I'm (currently) focusing on Granaries in the cities that are on Rivers, because they don;t need Aquaducts.
As for the other cities, like BFC, Hisp & Ming, just to name a few, we will have both Markets AND Libs in them. Further more, Incensity, Hisp and HoD all need Harbors. And lastly, Incensity, Banana, BFC will also need Courthouses before the palace is moved. So, there is a lot of things to squeeze in over a short time frame and things have to be prioritized as to what and where and when.
Trip's plan of converting whole hog to Libaries isn't the answer, but as RC had noted, a more balance approch might be and I'll try to look into it a bit more.
Now, and for the next 30 or so turns, while we are REXing like mad, the most important thing IS the Food balance. Some of these builds are longer term ones, but most of them are timed to have those builds finish and then have a settler built, BEFORE that city gets to a full (and stagnant) food box. The better I can time a settler that would come from a city, to where it would grow as soon as possible (ideally, the next turn after the settler is built), the better I can get them back up to fuller production. This has been my main goal from the start. This is as efficient as I can make it and still keep up our Trade and sheild balances.
So, Let me get back to this sim, and I hope I can have it posted by this afternoon. And I hope to have some preliminary results by this evening, before I have to go and try to fix my sisters Broken computer (an all night affair, no doubt).
MoI E_T
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001 time: 00:33
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In BFC, we are currently building a Marketplace, which will be done on turn 148 (320AD). We can have a Library built in that city, by turn 156 (400AD). This Library would still be finished AT THE SAME TIME as we would be starting research on our next Item AND we would be changing the slider to around 50% (at that time).
That is 8 turns of Market enhanced Income at 90% before the additional Maintainance requirement of the Library.
that would be:
Market first, then Lib
14 (GPT from city now) + 7 (Market Enhancement) - 3 (Maintainace cost for Barracks, Temple & Market) = 18 NET GPT from city. Times 8 turns while still in 90% tax - 144 total.
Lib first, then Market - Lib built next turn, 10 turns to Market
14 (GPT from city now) - 3 (Maintainace cost for Barracks, Temple & Library) = 11 NET GPT from city. Times 10 turns while still in 90% tax (no Benifit for the research) - 111 total.
144 - 111 = 33 Gold from this city alone while we are still in 90% tax mode
This one is a no brainer for now.
[EDIT] The general Plan for BFC, is to leave it at the pop that it currently is, for several reasons.
1) 10 SPT production continuously, with a Barracks for quick Vet Production.
2) the Gold gives us a better Trade, especially while a lot of the other cities are going to be bouncing around with settler builds
3) slow growth potenial to rebound from a settler built.
It will have a settler pulled from it, right before the Palace is moved. But that is still aways off and not before both of the 2 builds are completed.
[/edit]
MoI E_T
Last edited by E_T on 03-01-2004 at 02:54
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E_T
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Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001 time: 00:33
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This is my plan for this city at this point in time:
build Q: Harbor - Library - Galley - Courthouse - Settler (or Galley, depending on the timeing)
Change over to Harbor, it gets finished in turn 151 (350AD). On turn 152, we add 1 worker while building the Library. This gets us a little bit more trade before the Lib is built (3 more TPT) and the Library is built 5 turns after we start on the next tech (turn 161, 450AD).
Then we do a slow build of a Galley (Vet now), allowing the city to get up to size 6(and increased overall trade from coast). This is finished on turn 170 (540AD). Then the courthouse at it's fastest production speed, finishing on turn 180 (630AD). After then, most likely a settler, because it will need to get back down in Pop for the Palace Move. (anticipated around that time).
This gets us a better low corruption trade base, plus the addition of the Library to enhance it. Having the Library first would have it at a lower trade, because I would NOT be able to increase that cities Pop until the Harbor is built.
MoI E_T
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Dominae
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Marketplaces are more versatile than Libraries, because you can run a Gold deficit to do research but not vice versa (in other words, Gold is more fundamental than Beakers). Libraries can sit around and do nothing but generate Culture, while Marketplaces will always have some economic impact (however small).
In general, unless you're Scientific or are playing for a Culture victory, Marketplaces are better than Libraries for economic growth. This is even more true against human players, since then the value of research is worth far less than against the AI due to the "make a sale at all costs" mentality.
Dominae
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