15-01-2004 22:46									#1
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I was somewhat surprised to learn that John Edwards has pulled into a statistical tie in Iowa with Dean, Kerry, and Gephart. While he still is a long shot to win there, it must really be acknowledged that an Edwards scenario to the White House is plausible.

Even a second place showing in Iowa would ignite a big upsurge in Edwards' polling for the big southern showdown that looms just over the horizon. Edwards may not be able to win the nomination but he certainly has to be considered a vice presidential possibility due to Democratic weakness in the South.

That would certainly set the stage for Edwards to confront Mrs. Clinton for the top spot later.

However you peel the banana, it is difficult to see the Democratic party putting anyone but a southerner in the White House. Kennedy was the last northern Democrat to make it and that was a stolen election. Gore almost made it, failing because he lost in his home state. I think that was a direct result of his long career in Washington during which I think he neglected his base back home.

Edwards is considered a lightweight by many but he was a sucessful trial lawyer, he won a Senate seat in North Carolina, which is never a given for a Democrat, and if you compare him to George Bush I think he is electable.

With Dean's campaign in real trouble now, I think John Edwards is one to keep an eye on.

	15-01-2004 22:49									#2
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What about Kerry? He went from third by a longshot to pretty much tied within a couple of days.

Kerry, yay!

	15-01-2004 23:02									#3
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I'm wondering what groups of people are being polled.


But I am pleasantly surprised by what appears to be a jump up for Kerry.

	15-01-2004 23:07									#4
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It will be interesting to see whether that surge in support translates into people coming out. You can be sure most of Dean's supporters will stand up and be counted, as they are more fervent.

I can't see Kerry inspiring anyone. His speech yesterday was a snoozer. I actually prefer Gephart's platform, but I don't forgive his vote for war and his spinelessness towards the Repugs. Plus those blond eybrows and red face are just funny looking.

	15-01-2004 23:25									#5
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun I'm wondering what groups of people are being polled. But I am pleasantly surprised by what appears to be a jump up for Kerry.

Me too, on both things you said.

chegitz:

Yeah, he's boring, but so what. He's moderate, experienced and a career politician, exactly what Bush isn't. Plus I'm from MA and it gives us more clout.

	16-01-2004 00:04									#6
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I'm from MA too, and Kerry is my second pick. I'm very happy that he's the frontrunner in Iowa (by less than a point), because it means that Dean's message is now slipping. I feel that New Hampshire will go Clark, Kerry, Dean. This may become a three way race, at least from NH to the Feb 3rd primaries.

	16-01-2004 00:44									#7
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Dean can stand to lose Iowa, but if he doesn't win NH, he's done. After that, support for him will almost totally evaporate.

I'd keep my eyes on Clark more than Edwards. Clark is also a Southerner (hehehehe no really), and he's the one who will most benefit by Dean's fall. Now a Clark-Edwards ticket would be interesting...it would have the Southern appeal plus the youth and energy. Hmmm...

	16-01-2004 01:44									#8
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I wonder who has been leaking all the dirt on Dean and Clark on the Thursday (the normal day for the dirt to hit the fan) before the caucuses?

	16-01-2004 02:53									#9
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I find all the media attention on Iowa right now, quite flattering.

	16-01-2004 04:42									#10
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quote: What about Kerry? He went from third by a longshot to pretty much tied within a couple of days. Kerry, yay!

quote: Clark is also a Southerner (hehehehe no really)

Where is Clark from?

	16-01-2004 05:01									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Where is Clark from?

Little Rock, Arkansas

	16-01-2004 05:37									#12
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The South apart from Florida is a Republican lock. It's foolish even to try.

	16-01-2004 05:42									#13
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quote: Originally posted by monolith94 The South apart from Florida is a Republican lock. It's foolish even to try.

Depends. If it's a Clark-Edwards ticket, some more of the South is in play, if just Arkansas and North Carolina.

	16-01-2004 05:43									#14
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Exactly Mono, the democrats would be smart to just cut their losses, and throw the south to the wind.

	16-01-2004 05:54									#15
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Lots of Northerners are moving to the South. NC and Atlanata have become huge magnates for tech workers. Georgia only went Republican in the last election ebcause Black people turned out in much lower numbers than usual.

	16-01-2004 05:59									#16
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North Carolina is already almost a swing state, given its upsurgence in more liberal voters due to the industrial and tech sectors. With Edwards on the ballot, I'm betting it'd be a Democrat shoo-in.

	16-01-2004 06:13									#17
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With all the talk about Dean being in the lead, it surprises me to a great extent that especially Kerry seems to hang on. I've got to find out more about him, because Dean and Clark get all the attention these days, and if Imran the card-carrying Republican thinks he's cool, he must be a rare breed of Democrat.

	16-01-2004 07:04									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: What about Kerry? He went from third by a longshot to pretty much tied within a couple of days. Kerry, yay!

Ok -- I thought there was a rule that went unsaid that you and I cannot possibily consider supporting the same candidate.

	16-01-2004 08:50									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov North Carolina is already almost a swing state, given its upsurgence in more liberal voters due to the industrial and tech sectors. With Edwards on the ballot, I'm betting it'd be a Democrat shoo-in.

I'd take you up on that bet any day of the week.

NC went for Bush by 13 points. Arkansas was Five points. Might be possible, but it isn't likely. Current polls show no significant turn in either state.

www.dcpoliticalreport.com

	16-01-2004 08:52									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi I'd take you up on that bet any day of the week. NC went for Bush by 13 points. Arkansas was Five points. Might be possible, but it isn't likely. Current polls show no significant turn in either state. www.dcpoliticalreport.com

NC - with a Democratic governor and one of their own on the ballot? Sorry, NC is Democrat territory if Edwards is a candidate.

	16-01-2004 09:00									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov NC - with a Democratic governor and one of their own on the ballot? Sorry, NC is Democrat territory if Edwards is a candidate.

And New York has a Republican Governor, as does Massachustes, as does California, as does Maryland as does Rhode Island. Who controls the governorship is a very poor indicator as to national elections, as the Office of Governor is usually competetive nation wide.

Edwards as I understand has had his apporval rating fall greatly since he launched his liberal pres campaign and has attacked the President. Current polls aleady show him down 10 points to Bush, and so he does not seem likely at all to turn a state that went for Bush by 13 points around, especially if he is only the VP candidate.

	16-01-2004 09:15									#22
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Current? You mean:

http://www.newsobserver.com/edwards...p-2770984c.html

From September? Hardly a good indicator. First, Edwards' numbers had improved dramatically from previous polls. Second, at the time he was trailing very far behind in all the national polls and in IA and NH. Now that his campaign has some life from endorsements and he is probably going to tie for 3rd in IA, that changes the landscape mightily, even in NC. Were it to come to the point that he were actually on the ballot, I guarantee you it will change the number dramatically in NC.

	16-01-2004 09:53									#23
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No, from November, if you would read the date on the poll. The Septmember poll show Bush winning 51 to 40.

"First, Edwards' numbers had improved dramatically from previous polls. Second, at the time he was trailing very far behind in all the national polls and in IA and NH. Now that his campaign has some life from endorsements and he is probably going to tie for 3rd in IA, that changes the landscape mightily, even in NC."

The latest poll showed Edwards still behind Kerry, Gephardt, and Dean. Him getting in third is hardly a guarantee at all. Nextly, doing better in the Democratic Primary is hardly an indicator of how well would fare in a general election, particularly in the South.

Also, keep in mind, people generally do not vote for Vice Presidents. Edward as a VP is not going to cause any significant political change in the South.

	16-01-2004 10:17									#24
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quote: Georgia only went Republican in the last election ebcause Black people turned out in much lower numbers than usual.

Ah, this what the Communist newsletters tell ya?

Georgia mostly went Republican because of two things a) the teachers union of GA was PISSED at the Dem Governor and that trickled down (and they are a biiiiig Dem constituency, and b) Georgians like George Bush; all Democrats down in Georgia are basically Republicans anywhere outside the South (Zell Miller anyone?)

	16-01-2004 10:47									#25
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This just in (from yesterday)

quote: I’ll Be Voting For Wesley Clark / Good-Bye Mr. Bush — by Michael Moore Many of you have written to me in the past months asking, "Who are you going to vote for this year?" I have decided to cast my vote in the primary for Wesley Clark. That's right, a peacenik is voting for a general. What a country! I believe that Wesley Clark will end this war. He will make the rich pay their fair share of taxes. He will stand up for the rights of women, African Americans, and the working people of this country. And he will cream George W. Bush. I have met Clark and spoken to him on a number of occasions, feeling him out on the issues but, more importantly, getting a sense of him as a human being. And I have to tell you I have found him to be the real deal, someone whom I'm convinced all of you would like, both as a person and as the individual leading this country. He is an honest, decent, honorable man who would be a breath of fresh air in the White House. He is clearly not a professional politician. He is clearly not from Park Avenue. And he is clearly the absolute best hope we have of defeating George W. Bush.

It's official. Michael Moore endorses Wes Clark.

Other endorsements include:
-Madonna
-Barry Levinson
-Kennedy Administration Special Counsel Ted Sorenson
-Pulitzer Prize Winner Samantha Power "A Problem from Hell: America in the Age of Genocide"
-At least three Reps and former Reps
-At least two former Senators
-The Emperor Fabulous

	16-01-2004 10:50									#26
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quote: It's official. Michael Moore endorses Wes Clark.

Figures. Clark is the only Democratic candidate close to being as dishonest as Moore himself...

	16-01-2004 10:57									#27
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mmm, he's dishonest. Mostly because he admits when he voted for Republicansand told people directly that he is a democrat and there is no proof to refute him.

Plus, he's got that whole lying to the American people about why we were going to war thing over his head, and how long it would take, and that Iraq was a greater threat, and that we wanted Bin Laden number 1 dead or alive...

...oh, wait...

	16-01-2004 11:05									#28
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http://apolyton.net/forums/showthre...threadid=106498

	16-01-2004 11:09									#29
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The posts by Yuroslav and mTg completely refute that. Sorry, try again, and please leave other threads out of this one, especially if they've been refuted quite handidly already.

The key to that is he didn't L-I-E like the Bush Administration. Once he saw that they were going to go for war no matter the outcome, he changed his mind. What I hate about american politics is one isn't allowed to change their mind.

	16-01-2004 11:31									#30
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yea theres some questions about how exactly zogby is doing the polling. Interesting stuff, I was convinced Dean had it, now we'll see.