28-01-2004 03:58									#1
	New Hampshire result Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

CBC says that exit polls have

Kerry 36%
Dean 31%
Edwards 12%
Clark 12%

Others: marginal.

This is expected to be within a point of the final result.


Comments?

	28-01-2004 04:01									#2
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It's already past midnight here, but I'll have to stay awake for Howard Dean's concession speech.

	28-01-2004 04:02									#3
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quote: Originally posted by Winston I'll have to stay awake for Howard Dean's concession speech.

Yeeeaaaahhh!

	28-01-2004 04:03									#4
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YAAAAAARRRGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

Edit:

	28-01-2004 04:04									#5
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You know I didn't hear his speech until a few days after the fact, and I thought the 'Yeeeah' was a manly yell, I didn't realize it was a voice-cracking girly-scream. Maybe he'll name every state again .

	28-01-2004 04:05									#6
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Winston, you're evil.

Not that I'm a Dean supporter, though. By all means, let Kerry win again and end all this madness.

	28-01-2004 04:06									#7
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I'll wait till the returns come in myself. I got burned by listening to exit polling in '00.

	28-01-2004 04:06									#8
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quote: YAAAAAARRRGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!!

	28-01-2004 04:06									#9
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Dean is by no means dead, over 30% is still a strong second.

The race for third place will also be significant in determing who remains viable.

	28-01-2004 04:09									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Winston It's already past midnight here, but I'll have to stay awake for Howard Dean's concession speech.

Which you won't get. I imagine he'll be mildly upbeat.

This is good news for Dean as everyone expected him to come about 15 points behind Kerry. Third place would have had him out, a strong second showing is what they were hoping for after the Iowa result. It puts him on the rebound when the appearance was that his campaign had collapsed.

If Edwards wins as predicted in SC, Kerry in Missouri and Dean in Arizona and New Mexico (again, as the polls show right now) it's anyone's game.

Apparently the next big test is Wisconsin, which has a day to itself.

	28-01-2004 04:13									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Apparently the next big test is Wisconsin, which has a day to itself.

I think that this will be a telling primary as well (*PLATO makes note that at long last he agreed with Agathon on Something*)

	28-01-2004 04:13									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Which you won't get. I imagine he'll be mildly upbeat. This is good news for Dean as everyone expected him to come about 15 points behind Kerry....

What? I'm far from an expert with regards to American politics but how could Dean not be a huge, remarkable disappointment by now? I mean, he was the grand favourite and even managed to obtain the endorsement of Al Gore, one of the most significant politicians of modern times..?

	28-01-2004 04:14									#13
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So, is Lieberman out?

	28-01-2004 04:16									#14
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara So, is Lieberman out?

Not yet. If he manages to pull off third place, he'll be a fine position to take his campaign nationally. If he finishes say, 5th, he is pretty much dead.

	28-01-2004 04:16									#15
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Okay, I imagine Al Gore couldn't possibly be the tie-breaker of the game but still, he was VP throughout 8 years so in some way, I guess he remains a significant politician.

	28-01-2004 04:16									#16
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sure looks like it

I haven't been hearing anything from him for a while anyway

I think he is much more VP material anyway

Jon Miller
(probably will be voting for SPUSA unless Maryland matters)

	28-01-2004 04:17									#17
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Calpundit has six exit polls he's been able to find.

Average results from all six polls:

quote: Kerry - 35.7 Dean - 31.1 Edwards - 12.6 Clark - 11.5 Lieberman - 6.4

Most of the polls except the LA Times poll are remarkably stable, polling about Kerry 36, Dean 31. The LA Times poll has Dean 34 and Kerry 33, but isn't all that different from the others otherwise. (All six polls have Clark/Edwards at 12, and Holy Joe at <10. Haven't been able to find results for Vermin Supreme, sadly...)

Yeah, so, um, Lieberman's stone dead.

	28-01-2004 04:18									#18
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Although maybe he is dead. From www.drudgereport.com

"JOE LIEBERMAN CONTEMPLATES 'SUSPENDING' HIS CAMPAIGN, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE..."

	28-01-2004 04:20									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi If he finishes say, 5th, he is pretty much dead.

Hey Shi, just out of curiousity... If you had to choose one of the Democratic nominees, which one you prefer as President? I'm guessing you'd pick Kerry like Imran does and that's one of the reasons I'm hoping and thinking he'll eventually win.

	28-01-2004 04:20									#20
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Freaken Kerry

	28-01-2004 04:21									#21
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quote: What? I'm far from an expert with regards to American politics but how could Dean not be a huge, remarkable disappointment by now? I mean, he was the grand favourite and even managed to obtain the endorsement of Al Gore, one of the most significant politicians of modern times..?

Let's not get too crazy (most significant politician of modern times ), but yes, it is dissapointing for Dean.

	28-01-2004 04:22									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Monk What? I'm far from an expert with regards to American politics but how could Dean not be a huge, remarkable disappointment by now? I mean, he was the grand favourite and even managed to obtain the endorsement of Al Gore, one of the most significant politicians of modern times..?

You are a week behind the times. Dean was a major disappointment until this result, which is a good one because it shows his campaign has not collapsed. Two days ago he was getting creamed by Kerry but the word has been he's picked up steam again in the last 36 hours. That puts him on the uptrack rather than the downtrack.

Believe me, his handlers will be relieved.


And..

There have only been two primaries so far. Dean has a lot more money than Kerry. That matters.

	28-01-2004 04:24									#23
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quote: Dean has a lot more money than Kerry.

Dean has more, but not a LOT more as he had a few weeks ago. After Iowa, apparently, a ton of money flowed into Kerry's coffers.

	28-01-2004 04:24									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Monk Hey Shi, just out of curiousity... If you had to choose one of the Democratic nominees, which one you prefer as President? I'm guessing you'd pick Kerry like Imran does and that's one of the reasons I'm hoping and thinking he'll eventually win.

Probably Clark, he sounds the most likely to continue the war on terrorism.

	28-01-2004 04:27									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Monk that's one of the reasons I'm hoping and thinking he'll eventually win.

Why's that?

	28-01-2004 04:28									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: Dean has a lot more money than Kerry. Dean has more, but not a LOT more as he had a few weeks ago. After Iowa, apparently, a ton of money flowed into Kerry's coffers.

It's all about momentum. I stand by what I said before. It's going to be a catfight over the next two weeks.


Anyway, I decided who I like. Someone showed me a picture of Jessica Simpson with "Anyone But Bush" printed on it.

That'll do me.

	28-01-2004 04:28									#27
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Because he doesn't like Bush and anyone that beats him is ok with him .

	28-01-2004 04:28									#28
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If Dean gets New Hampshire, I'll perform a ritual suicide.

	28-01-2004 04:29									#29
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi Probably Clark, he sounds the most likely to continue the war on terrorism.

As if the next Prez will have a choice? You think terrorism will just stop if we do? Yeah...okay.

	28-01-2004 04:30									#30
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quote: That'll do me.

I think she's taken .