30-01-2004 16:39									#1
	Turn 168 : 530 AD Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Well, we have until we play the turn to try and pull off the elusive Chemistry deal.

MZ sent Chem, which I said we'd only accept if we get a deal with them.

I really wasn't expecting them to send it, I thought my sourpuss note had blown it. Maybe not. They must really want the deal...

	30-01-2004 16:40									#2
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

GoW are without Iron!

	30-01-2004 16:44									#3
	Increase Your PM Length

Did the deal come to an end (20 turns, no per turn recompense from GoW - a gift durng the war?), are GoW going to mass-produce more horsemen to upgrade (get iron off ND, upgrade, attack ND ) or are ND preparing to have some fun with GoW?

Wonder what they have to say about it, and whether they'd be interested in our iron in the not too distant future?

	30-01-2004 17:18									#4
	Got spare money?

quote: Cort Haus wrote on 30-01-2004 12:16: Hi MZ, We have the turn. Let us know what you can top up the Chem-Physics trade with and we'll see if we can get a deal, so we can crack on with Physics. btw - are you guys OK for Iron? Let us know if you need any help there. Regards Cort cc UnO

	30-01-2004 17:29									#5
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ND rose quite sharply on the power graph. Even Lego has a 1-pixel dent from the ND surge.

'getting interesting out there...

	30-01-2004 17:41									#6
	Remove this text

GoW will have their own iron when 'Irongard' grows its borders.

So far this city and one other is all GoW have to show for their 'victory'. UnO's response to my little teaser about "still waiting to see GoW's half of Bob" (so are they) was fun. I might run that line in my sig for a while. After all, they're still waving their ridiculous fried chicken flags.

	30-01-2004 18:01									#7
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

Let it lie, Cort. If GoW get squished, we can laugh at them then.

I figure it's very possible we are going to see a ND vs. GoW + Lego war. That should be fun.

Build, build, build. To hell with the rest of the world. Our only hope now is that they exhaust each other so we can squeak out a victory somehow.

-Arrian

	30-01-2004 18:29									#8
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quote: build, build, build

We could rename EotS "Neu Legopolis"

	30-01-2004 22:07									#9
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I think we can sit on this turn for a bit and see what GoW can come up with. The ball is in their court, and while MZ hasn't read today's PM yet, UnO has. Mind you, it was (according to MZ) UnO who 'goofed' the deal in the first place - if we can believe that's what happened.

	30-01-2004 22:30									#10
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Who knows.

UnO is erratic. He's also conniving.

-Arrian

	31-01-2004 02:05									#11
	Proposed Turn Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

This is the proposed move to be sat on and held while we wait for the unlikely to happen.
I'll be going out in a few hours and may not be available till tomorrow GMT, so I'll save it but not send it. I had thought of making another save with the tech accepted, but that seems a probable waste-of-time. If a miracle happens I'll replay it, albeit late.


Start

GoW offer Chem - but no deal, no surprise, can't accept
OG completes aquaduct, start library

Moves and Cities

Sufa size 7. Add settler + 1 worker for size 10. Switch from lib to temple. (6/30, 4t@6spt - perfect)
Diss : short-rush lib for 24g, now aqua in 2t
Eliopolis has expanded its border & now gets 6spt (20/80, 10t@6stp - perfect)
Galleys move south towards WW/OG
6 wrkrs fortress mnt Inchon-32
3 wrkrs fortress mnt Inchoff-4
MM Sandstorm for growth and worker next turn
fortress complete at iron mnt Monsoon-99

Mass shuffle of units.
The Knights will slowly and gradually get shuffled northwards to Eliopolis where they will dwell, near RP, near GoW, near the boats.

Chemistry in 3 turns, 673g, +20gpt

	31-01-2004 03:20									#12
	Can this be real? Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

from MZ

quote: Hmm, did you get my last PM? I said we could send you 300g 2 turns after we get Metallurgy and then the other 100g when we complete both deals (as well as the difference for Magnetism which would be another 100g). At the most I guess we can give you 400g upfront but it would have to be 3 turns after metallurgy instead of 2.

and my reply

quote: Hey, MZ! Thanks for the message - excellent news! No, I didn't recieve the earlier PM, but I got this one, OK. Looks like we're in business then. The payment arrangements are fine, and we look forward to sending you Physics in a few turns time. Chem NDA starts this turn (T128 : 530AD for 20 turns), Physics NDA starts on delivery to GoW for 20 turns. Tonight the nation of Gathering Storm will raise their glasses to our friends at the Glory of War! Cheers, MZ :clink: - Cort

Looks like I'm replaying the turn, accepting the tech. We actually have Chemistry and we actually have a deal.

	31-01-2004 03:21									#13
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I'll play and send it tomorrow.

	31-01-2004 03:38									#14
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I am shocked that they agreed to pay that exorbitant price.

damn.

why did they concede so much?

	31-01-2004 03:43									#15
	Tired of ads?

Maybe because I made it clear that they could either fully compensate us, or piss off. They had to trust us too, and they did. That at least is encouraging.

Maybe they don't intend to pay, but we'll have Physics and they want Magnetism too. Frigates, Galleons. They won't want to be spending their ecomony on researching two techs when they need gold for Rider upgrades.

	31-01-2004 04:13									#16
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

one positive thing is that they obviously not trading to get tthese techs with lego.

maybe lego figures that they are better off pocketing the money when the techs are 20% or whatever off.

	31-01-2004 05:41									#17
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Great. I am not sure what they are up to, but I doubt they will stiff us at this time. Maybe it is a ploy to get us comfortable for a later trick.

They have to get upgrades done before they will want to do anything funny.

Maybe we are their best chance to stay up with the tech race, if they are not dealing with Lego. They may not being sharing research with either ND or Lego. This would be smart as those are the only ones in a position to attack them any time soon.

	31-01-2004 07:20									#18
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Only remark from me (I'm drunk): can we trade our techs to Vox or ND?

DeepO

	31-01-2004 11:05									#19
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Two things.

I note that the cost of Democracy has dropped from the inverted value to normal 100%. Is this evidence of the bug, or has Vox got Democracy?

Also, we have no fast movers in the north who can check on the RP portion of the sea wall. Could we do some shuffling? I'm not sure I am being paranoid when every team in the game has proven to be out to get us. RP has been nice lately, but let's not assume too much.

	31-01-2004 11:08									#20
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... and then I note the galley net all around the area of concern. Nevermind, sort of.

	31-01-2004 19:15									#21
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Yes, the galleys can check the wall, and the Knights are being shuffled northward.

	31-01-2004 19:56									#22
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Played turn accepting Chemistry.

Start Physics at 80% for 4 turns, -73gpt, 673g

	31-01-2004 20:17									#23
	Got spare money?

Maybe keep a couple of knights in the South, just in case...

As to the timing of Physics: that 20% on the slider, is that on tax? GoW is going to see our research capabilities, and given that nobody knows our true research capacity, maybe its best to try to conceal it a bit... at least as much as possible... if we have 20% lux, I wouldn't mind on doing Physics in 5 turns, just to fool them a little, especially if we anticipate the cost going down as Lego gets it (if they aren't going for econ first)

DeepO

	31-01-2004 20:28									#24
	Got spare money?

Actually it may be that Lego is doing the Metallurgy-Mil Trad branch, and is not doing Physics or Economics. Lego have Navigation, which may be for military reasons (watching the oceans) or may be for Magellans - in which case we may lose our bid for that wonder, but BB still has 14 turns of Bank.

If they're building Magellan for thair GA they might not bother with Economics. If it all kicks off over there, I doubt wonders will be anyone's priority.

I'm wondering now, with 2 less techs to research, whether our Newton prebuild in Tempest could become our ToE prebuild. Then we start Newton in Hurricane after Copernicus. Who else is going to spend 400 shields for marginal tech gain as the era of Cavalry arrives? I reckon we might get a clean shot at it in Hurricane if the Tempest wonder is changed.

	31-01-2004 20:41									#25
	Full PM-box? Change here!

Something else we might want to consider: Would GoW be interested in a medicine for steam swap? We do steam (that is the costlier tech, right?), they research medicine, and we swap... Lego will not be able to follow that, even if ND are doing the same... and GoW can't keep up with us anyway.

We then could time our ToE prebuild even better... could even have a Hover prebuidl going. As to risk losing one of the science wonders: I don't mind that much, if we get one, we should be happy. And if it is in Hurricane, we should consider ourselves double lucky. But I'm pretty sure Lego will be going for both of the Science wonders as well.

DeepO

	31-01-2004 21:15									#26
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The 20% is tax. I went for 4-turn because we might need to get Magnetism before ToG now for the Metallurgy-Magnetism trade with GoW, and we don't want the Tempest prebuild to get over 400s before ToG. Also, I reckon Lego are not researching Physics, so we won't get a devaluation by holding back to let them to get it first.

GoW might be assuming that we'll do Magnetism after Physics, but thinking about it, they won't be held up by having to wait for Magnetism as they can be doing ToG. Also, Magnets break our Lighthouse, so we've got a good reason to to it after ToG.

If these two tech trades do go through ok, maybe GoW could research Medicine to trade for our Steam. That is, if they're still alive by then...

The trades with GoW have a 20-turn NDA on the techs. Once we have Physics we could see if ND have anything to offer for it. I don't think we want to be trading useful tech to Vox if Lego don't have it. I think we worked out a plan for AATW to sound-out Vox (who've not long discovered PP, so they can't have Demo yet).

	31-01-2004 21:22									#27
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I'll try and project ETA of Sci Meth in two scenarios - one where we trade for Metallugy, and another where we trade for Medicine too.

Last edited by Cort Haus on 31-01-2004 at 21:39

	01-02-2004 00:24									#28
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The original estimates were recorded here .

In fact, here's the text. The turn at the time was T62. We're now on T68 :

quote: The following model makes all sorts of assumptions, but we have to start somewhere. We know Banking will take us 3 turns. Chem will take us 6 turns at current rates, but will fall to 5 as GoW/ND will surely get it before us. By the time we finish Chemistry we will have another ~ 40 Scpt from Uni's in EotS and Arashi, and three post-aqua boom towns. Physics needs 1536, and 310 Scpt can do that in 5 turns. ToG needs 1632, needing 6 turns So 19 turns to ToG and Newton -which times well with a 20-turn build in Tempest starting next turn if we want that. If we get Copernicus and Newton at this time, that's another 50 Scpt and more aquas coming in, totalling say 380 Scpt. This leaves Magnetism (1632) in 5 turns and Metallurgy (If we have to research) it in four turns, hitting the modern era in 29 turns with 380 scpt. Steam (2880) could then be completed in 8 turns, Electricity (3360) in 9 turns, Medicine (2400) in 7 turns and Scientific Method in 7 turns. Total (without Industrialisation (2880 in 8 turns)) = 8 + 9 + 7 + 7 = 31 turns. So by these calculations, with no trading or devaluations except Chemistry and Metallurgy, we can get Scientific Method in 60 turns from now, (adding another 8 turns if we want Industrialisation on the way) and 23 turns from discovering Steam.

	01-02-2004 01:06									#29
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What's changed is that now, T182, we only have 3 techs to research to reach the next era. We can do Physics in 4 turns, burning some money (-76gpt, total ~ 300g) at 80% sci, but we can do Magnetism & ToG in 5 turns each at 70% @-30gpt ~ 300g and still have 100g plus 300g from GoW on the Physics deal.

So, 14 turns till the Industrial Era. 8 turns less that the original estimate

Add the 31 turns to Sci Meth from the above model is 45 turns.
If we allocate Tempest's mines to the shield-starved OG and WW, and put it on a Palace prebuild it drops to 43 turns.

So, slowing Tempest right down could see it as a ToE prebuild, with 85s on the board.

However, if we go ahead and suceed in putting Newton in there in 15 turns, that leaves 30 turns at 21spt = 630 shields. Very nice, and no need for rails.

If we were to trade for a modern tech, or if Lego build Copernicus before us, then Tempest could be the prebuild for ToE, otherwise Tempest starts it after Newton.

	01-02-2004 01:11									#30
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The Hoover prebuild is a lot more tricky. We only have one large shield-store, but EotS could build into the GLib up to 400 shields, needing another 400 for the Hoov. If we got Industrialisation from somewhere there might be the Uni Suff available fro the Hoov.