04-02-2004 13:40									#121
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Maryland is half Kerry and half undecided?

Other than that, it's a very reasonable map. It shows what will happen if it doesn't become a clear two-man race.

	04-02-2004 13:52									#122
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Oops. Lousy fill tool. Maryland will most likely go to Kerry, but Edwards has a chance if he stays in the race long enough.

Add, NY could be undecided, however I've colored it Kerry because of the strong labor vote he seems to be getting. If Dean remains, but doesn't remain strongly enough he may split the vote, but unless Edwards is finally discovered as the second coming it's not going to make any difference.

So far it seems that any state where you expect Dean to split the vote with Kerry, it doesn't happen.

oh and who do you think will be the ABK (anybody but Kerry) candidate will be if it does go down to a 2-3 race?

	04-02-2004 13:54									#123
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The anybody but Kerry candidate is clearly Edwards. He's got the 3rd most delegates (Dean still has more, but that will change by the time Virginia and Tennessee vote.) Clark is behind him in terms of delegates. (102-78)

He'll be way behind after Virginia and Tennessee vote.

	04-02-2004 13:59									#124
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Yeah I'd probably agree with you. Although Clark has been doing better than I expected.

I think pretty much the chips are down now, that Kerry now seems the likely winner. With this situation, hopefully the big ABK money people will start to give Edwards some more money and momentum.

	04-02-2004 15:43									#125
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Thanks to superdelegates, Dean is still ahead of Clark and Edwards in the number of delegates.

What are superdelegates? And how did Dean get them?

	04-02-2004 17:30									#126
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Super delegates are party officials, etc... from the various states that can vote as they wish and are not pledged by any primary vote. They total approximately 1/5 of the total delegates. They are the ones that will ultimately determine this years nominee.

	04-02-2004 17:40									#127
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Can they change their votes when someone drops out?

	04-02-2004 17:49									#128
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Can they change their votes when someone drops out?

Yes, They are completely unpledged. They can change their vote all the way up to the convention and often do.

	04-02-2004 19:32									#129
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We must remember that Dean did not compete in any of the primaries yesterday- he did not advertise nor stump.

The big challenge then will be to win in Washignton or another northern state prior to March 3. if he does, he is back in, and given that Clarks one victory was extremely narrow, ahead of him.

	04-02-2004 19:37									#130
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I think Dean will stay in until Cali and NY whether he wins one of not. He's got some delegates, he's got many superdelegates, and he has a chance in those states. Unless he wins at least one of those, I don't see him continuing after then though.

	05-02-2004 08:13									#131
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue I think Dean will stay in until Cali and NY whether he wins one of not. He's got some delegates, he's got many superdelegates, and he has a chance in those states. Unless he wins at least one of those, I don't see him continuing after then though.

He's got to come in second somewhere or people will forget about him.

	05-02-2004 08:52									#132
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Bye bye, Howie.

BTW, when is the Minnesota caucus?

	05-02-2004 10:57									#133
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue I think Dean will stay in until Cali and NY whether he wins one of not. He's got some delegates, he's got many superdelegates, and he has a chance in those states.

Current polls in California have Kerry at 49% with Dean at 18%. Unless Dean can win something soon, he's just delaying the inevitable.