12-02-2004 20:30									#31
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel What about relocating CGN to this continent? Is that something they or we would do? That free industrial tech is right around the corner. But there are few safe zones on our continent that are also not next to our future capital. Maybe they would take the islands near CFC, that way they would be safe until at least marines.

There is not much space left and I'm really for giving them of MY cities....

MoI E_T

	12-02-2004 22:03									#32
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quote: Originally posted by OPD Doesn't this mean that we may be better off going for the builder route instead of the millitary one. If we can indeed match them economically then why shouldn't we just use that rather than attacking. If CGN were to raise their cities rather than let GWT capture them to give to GCA, would us and CFC not easily be able to out build them? Considering that both of us would likely be close to being maxed out in terms of corruption and so them building in old CGN land would be of little benefit and that GCA would be quite far behind CFC if GCA were to set up camp down there? Would CGN be willing to stick around to give us the free techs? We still have our GA to come and if we can get to nationalism before GWT get to MT they wouldn't pose much of a threat to us millitarily. In the long term isn't our set up, city and palace placement and commercialness likely to mean we can take GWT in an economic battle even when you don't consider the likelyhood that we are alot better than GWT in builder terms.

There's a big problem with going the builder route:

- GWT will have a large military after defeating CGN. Well over 2x our own. They could try and do something with it. With such a large army and Navigation/Magnetism eventually, they could indeed land. If they land in CFCs-ville, then they could take them out... and win a domination victory.

That having been said, both are possible options. That's why we're discussing it now.

	12-02-2004 22:05									#33
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel dissention is not tolerated BFM, be a good warmonger now.

Damn straight.

	12-02-2004 22:10									#34
	Re: Re: Contingency Plan - GWT Destroys CGN Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Hold on. If we can out-research them, wouldn't we have a fairly decent chance of a Spaceship victory? With the help of CGN and CFC, of course. Surely, GWT will reach Spaceship techs too, but if our advantage is big enough, maybe we can just pull it off... And we'll hold off any invasion of theirs by building lots of railroads. I like Sleepy's UN Victory possibility, too.

Like I hinted at before, things are quite up in the air in that situation. If we do establish a strong tech lead now (which will probably dissolve once CGN is down for the count and GWT begins researching again) then we should have a shot with Cav before they get Steam Power at the very least.

We still have a fair ways before we pass them economically. If they're busy building Markets and Aquaducts we will have a nice window to strike them.

The reason I approve of the warmonger path instead of the builder is that things are in our hands - we don't have to worry about GWT passing us in techs. We don't have to worry about a future naval invasion. We directly control our fate.

We could always make it a more limited operation. All we have to do is capture Ruhrpott and almost 1/2 of GWT's economic strength is gone. That seems a lot easier to me than hoping GWT doesn't pass us in techs and not being sure if/when an invasion is coming...

	12-02-2004 22:28									#35
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If we begin making preparations now for this invasion, like we prepared months in advance for our invasion of GCA, and if we cooperatively launch this attack with forces from CFC, AND we do it at the right time...

Dropping simultaneously on several sites at once is a plan that cannot fail. They won't be able to save enough of their cities and the damage we would do this late in the game will knock GWT out of the lead. It's a move that will put us in the top spot after CGN gets worked by GWT in the current war.

Not only will it set us up for the win, it'll win great praise and support from CGN and, if done with CFC, will essentially cement their game-long alliance with us.

Lastly, and most importantly, it'll give us the opportunity to move in and obliterate GCA once and for all.

Even with all of that, we'd still have to win the game via space race or UN. Our UN chances are higher if CGN dies and we "save" them by gifting them a city, however, that assumes that we can build the UN first. By destroying GWT's wonder building cities we can guarantee that we'll build the UN and thus hold or postpone the vote until after we're sure we have the win.

Also, by destroying GWT's major cities we can ensure that we'll have the most productive cities and can be the first to build a spaceship.

What worries me is that if GWT is left unharmed, is the potential for a GWT mass invasion of our continent, or a massive nuclear war that will likely begin right around the time we're both building spaceship parts. Once marines come into play you can almost be assured that GWT will attack us to make their play to win the game. And I don't even have to mention that GCA is going to attack us at some point in the future if we allow them to continue to build and obtain support from GWT.

Of course, all of this assumes that CGN will get beaten in the current war. If they hold their own and get their own UUs on the field, all of this changes. In fact, it may change so much that we find ourselves having to invade CGN instead of GWT. Either way, we'll be ready to make the move needed for victory.

--Togas

	12-02-2004 23:39									#36
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quote: Originally posted by Togas Dropping simultaneously on several sites at once is a plan that cannot fail.

Sheesh, if it's that good, why are we even discussing it?!

Here's a possible scenario: 1) GWT puts some boats into the water as a radar net, 2) GWT lines its coasts with Workers and military units so that we cannot disembark until Marines, 3) GWT wins because Amphibious Warfare is far enough away that their economy will have far surpassed our own by then.

(Notice that with 1 and 2 together, GWT need not cover every inch of their coast.)

If we try this strategy and find ourselves unable to disembark next to their cities, we would be forced to invade the (presumably semi-vacant) ex-CGN lands. But then GCA and GWT's combined force would probably be greater than ours, and we would be repelled.

Probably.

If military action really is our contigency plan, we need to get on a foot on that contient ASAP. GWT is not dumb enough to leave their core cities completely open to invasion. Trip's invasion plan, although commendable for the early- to mid-game where units are scarce, will simply not work against a prepared GWT. And I think it's safe to asssume GWT will be "prepared" in this respect.


Dominae

	13-02-2004 00:28									#37
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I'm sure Dominae believes that GWT is going to send units to blanket their coastline while simultaneously fighting CGN. They don't need to send them to the front and they certainly won't need any reinforcements.

Or perhaps he thinks they'll suddenly know that we have Navigation and will then pull back and cover their coastline instead of pressing the war to CGN.

Or perhaps he believes they'll leave a ton of units in reserve near each and every one of our drop zones and with 1 turn's warning from one of their many picket ship (they'll build a mess of ships instead of building Ansars, and they'll place those ships outside of the military theatre because they won't need them to transport units into CGN) they'll THEN blanket the shores so that we cannot land anywhere except CGN.

Yeah. That's probably what's going to happen. I guess attacking them IS a dumb idea after all. Since Dom feels that we need to get units there ASAP, and attacking right after Navigation IS as soon as we could possibly attack, but I guess that's not soon enough so what the hell SHOULD we do?


While I also doubt GWT will be unprepared, we need to get real. They cannot be everywhere. They have a finite number of units to use, a very large coastline to cover, and they have a very critical war going on right now that demands their attention and their manpower.

They cannot cover everything nor prepare equally for every possibility. They cannot cover all of the drop zones or nor spare enough units in reserve to deal with our offensive because it would mean not having enough power in the south to fight CGN.

Of course, things change if they kill off CGN and have time to return home and cover their back. Things also change if we take too long getting both Mil Theory and Navigation and they catch up in tech. Things REALLY change if CGN holds their ground and gets Siphani and starts to turn the tide.

But I like this plan because it gives us a better chance of deciding the outcome of the game than just sitting back and hoping that our economy and CFC's economy will somehow beat out the combined economies of GWT and GCA, and that we'll be able to parlay a good economy into a peaceful victory.

And I also like this plan because it's our best window to fight a war on their soil, instead of fighting them on our own soil.

--Togas

	13-02-2004 00:41									#38
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The title of this thread is, in part, "GWT Destroys CGN". I understand this as saying that we would probably not be attacking GWT until the major battles against CGN would be over. Given the current state of our empire, and the timeline for GWT's destruction of CGN if things go badly (hint: it happens quickly with Ansars), it's more "realistic" to assume that by the time we attack GWT their focus will be on us.

If you want Trip's plan to work, we should be putting boats with troops into the water now.

Another thing that you're maybe not considering is that Workers work just as well as Pikemen or Knights as coast guards. With the Pyramids, I would expect GWT to have 50+ Workers by now, or at the very least this number by the time we get our act together and try to invade them. There's nothing more embarrassing than having to call your invasion off due to a horde of Workers just sitting around.

In case you're wondering, I'm not just being argumentative here. This is a very real possibility.

We need to invade GWT through CGN (if we invade at all).


Dominae

Last edited by Dominae on 13-02-2004 at 01:34

	13-02-2004 01:19									#39
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I'm not so sure about this warmonger route myself.

First off, there are (as Sleepy has tried to point out) a lot of assumptions in Trips plan.

Second, it is by concentrating on civilian builds that Apolyton was going to rocket ahead economically. If we start building scads of units, that will not happen.

Third, GWT knows how to fight. Even if we manage to put together a large invasion force and get it to LZ4 (the best one, IMO), and even if they haven't got the coast blocked, we are likely to face stiff opposition. Ansars move 9 on roads. Frankly, instead of 50 cav + 15 muskets, I'd be inclined to say 40 Cav and 25 muskets. The key is that our forces survive long enough to strike. I doubt their FP city can possibly withstand 40 Cav. Actually, can we realistically put together 40 Cav + 25 muskets and fire them off into the deep blue yonder? Isn't say, 30 cav + 15-20 muskets more realistic? Or, actually, 30 cav, 15 muskets, 5 numidians.

Nailing their FP would be good, yes, I'll grant you that.

I think the best approach for now is to proceed with builds that work for both approaches (peaceful builder or warmonger). That means we build boats for now, and continue with the REX & civilian builds. To the extent we build units, we build Numidians.

Once the infidel galley in our interior sea is dealt with, all available ships, save one or two for west coast lookout duty, are sent to the east coast, nearest to LZ4. All excess Numidians are also sent up there.

Then, should things go ill "over there" we can switch over to building horsemen by the dozen and save up the necessary cashola. 30 horse -> Cav = 1500 gold w/o Leo's right? 15 Numids to Muskets = 450 gold. So we're looking at about 2000 gold in upgrade costs (this assumes we're not using the knights we've already upgraded on this, thus weakening our homeland defense to the point that CFC could maul us).

We're a long way from MT, though. Methinks if this war is to be won decisively by GWT, it will happen pretty fast.

-Arrian

edit: crosspost with Dominae.

	13-02-2004 01:55									#40
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Part of the plan is making sure that we get to Navigation-Magnetism before GWT expects us to be able to. If we get to it fast enough, they won't expect a landing and thusly they won't have a sea wall up.

I'm fairly certain they don't have 50 Workers. I've been tracking their improvements, and they're coming along rather slowly. They still have a number of hills and mountains unmined near their core. I estimate they have 25-30 based upon what I've seen the past dozen or so turns.

Even if GWT has a naval screen up, with 4-move units that can cross oceans we can get adjacent to the coast to land in a single turn without being seen.

	13-02-2004 01:58									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian I'm not so sure about this warmonger route myself. First off, there are (as Sleepy has tried to point out) a lot of assumptions in Trips plan. Second, it is by concentrating on civilian builds that Apolyton was going to rocket ahead economically. If we start building scads of units, that will not happen. Third, GWT knows how to fight. Even if we manage to put together a large invasion force and get it to LZ4 (the best one, IMO), and even if they haven't got the coast blocked, we are likely to face stiff opposition. Ansars move 9 on roads. Frankly, instead of 50 cav + 15 muskets, I'd be inclined to say 40 Cav and 25 muskets. The key is that our forces survive long enough to strike. I doubt their FP city can possibly withstand 40 Cav. Actually, can we realistically put together 40 Cav + 25 muskets and fire them off into the deep blue yonder? Isn't say, 30 cav + 15-20 muskets more realistic? Or, actually, 30 cav, 15 muskets, 5 numidians. Nailing their FP would be good, yes, I'll grant you that. I think the best approach for now is to proceed with builds that work for both approaches (peaceful builder or warmonger). That means we build boats for now, and continue with the REX & civilian builds. To the extent we build units, we build Numidians. Once the infidel galley in our interior sea is dealt with, all available ships, save one or two for west coast lookout duty, are sent to the east coast, nearest to LZ4. All excess Numidians are also sent up there. Then, should things go ill "over there" we can switch over to building horsemen by the dozen and save up the necessary cashola. 30 horse -> Cav = 1500 gold w/o Leo's right? 15 Numids to Muskets = 450 gold. So we're looking at about 2000 gold in upgrade costs (this assumes we're not using the knights we've already upgraded on this, thus weakening our homeland defense to the point that CFC could maul us). We're a long way from MT, though. Methinks if this war is to be won decisively by GWT, it will happen pretty fast. -Arrian edit: crosspost with Dominae.

I never said it would be a piece of cake. It will be a challenge, however you slice it. However, if we plan things right then I think we can pull it off, and once more, all we have to do is take Ruhrpott and we can go home.

And yes, we will have to start preparing now. We will need large numbers of boats built now as we continue building up gold. 2000 gold is doable... we already have almost half that now.

We can do this if we start gearing up now.

	13-02-2004 02:28									#42
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Togas is right. GWT cannot be everywhere at once. They have a finite amount of troops and resources.

We don't wait until GWT has leveled CGN to go after GWT. We do so just a the momentum is begining to shift to GWT's side. At that time they will be wanting to make a bug push to really devistate CGN. That's when we land/attack.

I think Trip has a good idea of what is going on as far as how strong GWT is actually. They are not invincable.

	13-02-2004 02:49									#43
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Of course, if we do this, it will most likely trigger perpetual war with GWT, so get ready to switch over to Monarchy once the WW gets really bad. We will be the aggressor, and thus be hit harder.

Ok, I think we need to project our economy into the future and come up with a timeline on getting MT and Magnetism. We're researching Education now, with 8 turns to go, right?

We will be getting Gunpowder from CGN, yes? That leaves:

Astronomy, Chemistry, Metallurgy, MT, Physics, Magnetism. 6 techs after the one we're researching.

Now if we're assuming that CGN is going to be toast (the premise of the thread), we cannot count on them for research much past Gunpowder.

So, how long will it take us to research those 6 techs? Tough to say, considering the drastic impact the palace jump will have on our economy. But does a range of 30-50 turns sound right? Again, I'm assuming that CGN bites the big one, and prior to going down, they are probably going to be at max tax for upgrading & rushbuying.

So, in 30-50 turns, can we assemble the following on the east coast: 12-13 galleons, 30 Cavalry, 15 muskets, 5 numidians?

Can we do that without wrecking our economic development?

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 02:55									#44
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Also, we must assume that our strike force is "fire and forget" in that it will most likely end up being wiped out. We might be able to get some of it out, but I think it behooves us to just write those troops off. Anything we get back on the ships is gravy.

GWT will, of course, attempt to retaliate. So not only do we need the troops to land at LZ4, we also need enough mobile forces back home to cover large swathes of our coastline, and picket ships to warn of incoming GWT forces. And we still need the troops holding the border with CFC. That's a lot of units. Obviously, the coastwatchers can be anything, even workers (though I think we will need all of our workers to actually be working). I'd suggest horsemen. 30-shield builds, upgradeable to Cav if need be, mobile.

The weak link in this is CFC. We must make sure that they are equally vigilant about their coastline. It's not that I think they would deliberately screw us (though it's possible), but rather that they might just forget something and next thing you know GWT has a megastack in CFC land.

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 02:56									#45
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GWT will already be suffering from bad war weariness from the CGN war. Flammburg was burning a half-dozen or so turns ago. So I believe we should have the advantage in that department (until/unless they change to Monarchy as well).

CGN finishes Gunpowder only 2 turns from now. They ought to be able to finish at least Chemistry, and possibly Metallurgy if they can hold GWT off.

We could also do Navigation instead of Magnetism to help speed up the process (if it looks like we'll have to). We'd need more boats, but we can start doing that now.

I think we can accomplish what you've outlined in that timeframe.

	13-02-2004 02:57									#46
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quote: So, in 30-50 turns, can we assemble the following on the east coast: 12-13 galleons, 30 Cavalry, 15 muskets, 5 numidians? Can we do that without wrecking our economic development?

The other important question is: what can GWT assemble in 40 turns?

At the very least they're have their coastline secure (or securable).


Dominae

	13-02-2004 02:58									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Also, we must assume that our strike force is "fire and forget" in that it will most likely end up being wiped out. We might be able to get some of it out, but I think it behooves us to just write those troops off. Anything we get back on the ships is gravy. GWT will, of course, attempt to retaliate. So not only do we need the troops to land at LZ4, we also need enough mobile forces back home to cover large swathes of our coastline, and picket ships to warn of incoming GWT forces. And we still need the troops holding the border with CFC. That's a lot of units. Obviously, the coastwatchers can be anything, even workers (though I think we will need all of our workers to actually be working). I'd suggest horsemen. 30-shield builds, upgradeable to Cav if need be, mobile. The weak link in this is CFC. We must make sure that they are equally vigilant about their coastline. It's not that I think they would deliberately screw us (though it's possible), but rather that they might just forget something and next thing you know GWT has a megastack in CFC land. -Arrian

Our greatest advantage in this sense is that we should get Nav/Mag quite a bit before GWT does. Right now they don't even have Theology, while we will probably be doing Astronomy yet. They have a lot of ground left to make up in order to sail the oceans, even if they are stronger and they do start researching again soon. We should have time to land our invasion, burn, pillage, whatnot. Meanwhile building pickets and mobile units to watch for GWT's counter-strike.

	13-02-2004 03:00									#48
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quote: CGN finishes Gunpowder only 2 turns from now. They ought to be able to finish at least Chemistry, and possibly Metallurgy if they can hold GWT off.

If the hold GWT off, we don't necessarily want to follow through with your plan, though. The idea is that CGN gets whipped. I'll accept Chemistry, but not Metallurgy.

That means 5 techs. So closer to 30 turns than 50. Fine. I think we do want the galleons, though. Transporting roughly 50 units requires 13 galleons or 17 caravels. AFAIK, we're not exactly loaded with productive coastal cities to build those extra ships.

How many ships do we want to leave in the west for lookout duty?

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 03:04									#49
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quote: Originally posted by Trip Our greatest advantage in this sense is that we should get Nav/Mag quite a bit before GWT does. Right now they don't even have Theology, while we will probably be doing Astronomy yet.

how much would it cost GWT to steal Theo from CFC?

	13-02-2004 03:17									#50
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel how much would it cost GWT to steal Theo from CFC?

CFC dislikes GWT as much as we do.

	13-02-2004 03:26									#51
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Huh?

	13-02-2004 03:26									#52
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We're on a 6-turn research pace now!?

	13-02-2004 03:27									#53
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We're on 8-turn pace, last I saw. I assume that once the Palace jump goes through, the pace will quicken.

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 03:28									#54
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re: cfc not liking GWT

um, please explain


I would presume that we won't declare war on GWT until our troops actually wash ashore, so up until that time GWT could steal techs from either us or CFC. I assume it would be cheaper from CFC as we will always keep them a tech or two behind us.

	13-02-2004 03:30									#55
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quote: Originally posted by Trip CFC dislikes GWT as much as we do.

More, in fact, if what they say is to be believed.

	13-02-2004 03:31									#56
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel re: cfc not liking GWT um, please explain I would presume that we won't declare war on GWT until our troops actually wash ashore, so up until that time GWT could steal techs from either us or CFC. I assume it would be cheaper from CFC as we will always keep them a tech or two behind us.

I had assumed you meant "steal" the tech in the sense that CFC would make a deal with GWT to give it to them.

	13-02-2004 03:31									#57
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How does that stop GWT from stealing a tech from CFC?

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 03:32									#58
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Can you steal techs w/o Espionage, though? Sorry, Sleepy brought it up, but I cannot recall EVER stealing tech in all the games of CivIII I've played.

-Arrian

	13-02-2004 03:34									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian Can you steal techs w/o Espionage, though? Sorry, Sleepy brought it up, but I cannot recall EVER stealing tech in all the games of CivIII I've played. -Arrian

all you need is an embassy

	13-02-2004 03:35									#60
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Ah, alrighty then. Still, IIRC, stealing techs is quite expensive, and there is a risk of failure, even with the "safe" option, right?

-Arrian