12-02-2004 05:28									#1
	Contingency Plan - GWT Destroys CGN Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

We must plan for the possible outcome of GWT defeating CGN completely, and either destroying them outright from the game, or removing them as a player in the global balance of power (ala GCA). This is an eventuality which would be nigh on a disaster for Apolytonia's chances of winning this game. That being the case, we need to plan now for that situation and get everything in order if it does in fact happen.

If GWT does take down CGN, then the way we must win this game is militarily - there is no other way around it. With GWT and their lackeys GCA in control of that entire continent, their military and production power will surpass our own by leaps and bounds. We may be able to out-research them with CFC (and CGN's) help, but if they try to invade us or find a way to get the spaceship techs, then we will be destroyed ourselves or defeated in the final stretch of the game.

The best time to conduct an overseas invasion is in the window between Military Tradition and Steam Power. This allows the strongest (relative) attackers available in the game while also removing the insta-move ability of railroads. Therefore, the best time to conduct an amphibious invasion to curb GWT's power would be once we get MT.

To be successful in our invasion, we would need CFC's assistance in landing. As the PTWDG shows, 2 teams have a much greater potency fighting than 1 stronger power alone. This being the case, we should discuss this possibility in chat sometime soon in order so that CFC can be prepared for this operation in case it becomes necessary. We do not want to gear up for a massive landing only to find that CFC has naught a navy to help us conduct it with.

The requirements for an invasion of GWT would be Magnetism (for an offensive navy as well as more robust and useful transport craft) and Military Tradition (for Cavalry, obviously). Along with techs, we would need a significant navy, capable of sinking a GWT defense fleet and landing units on the GWT shore. If we wanted to aim for a landing of 40 Cavalry and 10 Muskets, it would require 13 Galleons. We would want at least as many Frigates to protect them. If we launch our invasion before GWT gets Navigation or Magnetism, we could strike anywhere on their coast from the ocean and they would not be able to defend their coastline - being able to do this would be a huge advantage, and thusly Magnetism should be a high priority should CGN fall.

There are 4 good landing zones that we can use to do damage to GWT. I have included a map of them (as well as rough approach paths) later in the post.

The first (LZ1) is on the mountains southeast of Wüstenblau. Naval forces could approach from the ocean unseen and then land onto the mountains. With 3 movement Cavalry we would be able to take Wüstenblau and Eumelsand the turn after we land. Past that, we could strike north and west, cutting off GWT through its core. The disadvantage of this LZ is its proximity to GWT's capital (likely to have lots of defenders nearby).

The second landing zone (LZ2) is on the desert peninsula to the east of the GWT core. A landing there would be fairly easy (closest area to our continent) and to maintain (far away from the GWT core, unlikely to have a large army nearby). The disadvantages of this LZ are that once the peninsula is secured, crossing over the mountains to get to GWT's core would be quite a difficult task. The initial landing would also have little effect on GWT's economy as the area is quite deficient in productive cities and terrain.

The third landing zone (LZ3) is the region around Parthemünde, just to the northeast of Webringen. The biggest advantage of this LZ is that we would be able to take down GWT's finest cities quick (Parthemünde and Webringen). The disadvantages are similar to LZ1 in that it is very close to the GWT core, and might suffer a ferocious counter-attack. However, Musket VS Knight are in the favor of the defender… as long as we can keep GWT away from Military Tradition.

The fourth and final good landing zone (LZ4) would be somewhere on the west coast of GWT's new land (Ruhrpott with the FP). This is a highly productive zone with a lot of bonus food resources and relatively isolated from GWT's capital. If we can take Ruhrpott and destroy their FP, the entire zone becomes useless. Because of those two factors, this is a very highly attractive LZ. Disadvantages are few for this, aside from the similar risks of LZ1 and 3.

Based upon strength, Apolyton could probably take on 2 LZs while CFC does 1. Perhaps CFC can do LZ1 while we do LZ3 and 4. If conducted simultaneously, these landings could cripple GWT quite quickly. Once Webringen, Parthemünde and especially Ruhrpott are destroyed, the mainstay of GWT's economy is ruined. If successful, then we can claim joint victory with CFC, either via UN or Spaceship later on in the game.

Oh, and we'd be able to wipe out GCA once and for all.

	12-02-2004 05:33									#2
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Now, we need to also keep in mind as to what GWT plans to do with the CGN lands. Will they gift them to GCA?? Or use it themselves??

It will likely be a situation of Poly/CFC vs GWT/GCA.

Al the more reason to make sure that we keep GWT from advancing Tech wise.

E_T

	12-02-2004 05:44									#3
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quote: Originally posted by E_T Now, we need to also keep in mind as to what GWT plans to do with the CGN lands. Will they gift them to GCA?? Or use it themselves?? It will likely be a situation of Poly/CFC vs GWT/GCA. Al the more reason to make sure that we keep GWT from advancing Tech wise.

I doubt that GWT would use it for themselves. They've already built their FP and they are unlikely to do a Palace jump into the new lands, given how long it would take to make them productive. Even if they did do a Palace jump, then it would take a while for them to be capable of doing it with all those high pop cities.

Give the lands to GCA? A possibility. If GWT doesn't trust GCA enough they may not, but either way the lands would either never be productive or would only be productive eons in the future when GCA can resettle and redevelop it.

	12-02-2004 05:48									#4
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Just read your entire thread. I definately like the plan.

Here's my concern... (just being the devil's advocate here)

* If CGN is not wiped out or seriously diminished by GWT, then our best thing to do is to BUILD improvements and wonders to steam ahead of the other continent, not military units.

* If CGN is wiped out or seriously diminished by GWT, then our best thing to do may very well be your proposed plan for militarily attacking GWT's 2 cores and razing as many cities as we can before they can recover.

Now, the problem is that at what point will we know which one we need to prepare for and if we decide too early to set our production on the one priority to find out later that we should have set on the other, are we screwed?

There's also the matter of differing research priorities under each scenario. How soon do we have to choose and what are the consequences of choosing too early or too late for the "wrong" choice and then having to change choices?

That's just a devil's advocate thought of mine.

As for what happens if GWT really does take down CGN, I definately think you have an awesome plan here. Personally, I think LZ4 and their FP would be the most critical LZ. LZ3 with their wonder-building cities would be next behind that. So I agree that if we go in with CFC, we try to RAZE as many cities as we can in those LZ's, getting LZ1 as well if it can be done.

Only critique there is that splitting up our forces between multiple LZ's allows GWT to concentrate all of their forces on killing one of our expeditiary forces (and then killing each of them one at a time with their WHOLE force). Of course, if they go after one of the expeditiary forces and let us have free reign with the other 2 to raze cities, they're sunk. So that might not be THAT bad.

Overall, I think you have an excellent idea here... the issues that need to be covered are the ones I've raised above concerning priorities for preparing for this -vs- a more builder-heavy game.

	12-02-2004 05:50									#5
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Our best bet is to try and maximize our initial impact. That means causing the most destruction as possible in the shortest time. Given that our objective is merely to cripple them, and not to destroy them, the best zone is without a doubt LZ3. It is an attack straight at the jugular.

I say we limit ourselves to LZ3 and LZ4. Those two sites offer the biggest bang for the buck.

	12-02-2004 05:56									#6
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Knowing which plan to enact (builder or invasion) will indeed be a critical part of this game.

The best way to determine how things will go is if GWT manages to break through CGN's chokepoints with a significant mobile force (~20 Ansar) with most of CGN's Knights already killed, or if GWT manages to land an amphibious invasion on CGN's coastline. In either of those cases, I believe that CGN is as good as dead and we should begin preparing for this plan.

In any case, we should plan on researching Astronomy next. This allows us to be on the upper path to Magnetism if we do need to strike, and also allows us Caravels (which are the most significant next-tech benefit that we can reap).

A dying CGN can do Metallurgy after it's clear that GWT won't be stopped. That leaves Physics, Magnetism and Military Tradition. We can do Physics and Mag while CFC can do Military Tradition (once we do our Palace Jump we should be reasonably independent of CFC's gold for research).

In the meantime, we can begin building Galleys/Caravels for upgrades to Galleons, along with Knights for Cavalry and Muskets for defense. If we can wrap all of this up before GWT gets Nav/MT then we can inflict a crushing defeat on them.

	12-02-2004 05:57									#7
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Frankly, we're never going to have a better window of opportunity to invade GWT than this. I beileve we should begin planning NOW to attack GWT between MT and Steam.

Should CGN happen to win or stalemate, we can simply keep the forces at home, but we should plan and prepare for the worst.

My hope is that CGN and GWT will be deep into their bloody war and that GWT will have pulled every extra defender out of their core.

If we pull this off with CFC's help, and we rapidly destroy their major cities, even if our forces are ultimately repelled their game winning potential will be finished.

... and I wholeheartedly agree that we should wipe out GCA.

--Togas

	12-02-2004 06:01									#8
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quote: Originally posted by Arnelos Only critique there is that splitting up our forces between multiple LZ's allows GWT to concentrate all of their forces on killing one of our expeditiary forces (and then killing each of them one at a time with their WHOLE force). Of course, if they go after one of the expeditiary forces and let us have free reign with the other 2 to raze cities, they're sunk. So that might not be THAT bad.

One advantage is that we will have CFC's assistance. If we want to cut it down to only 2 LZs, we can have CFC do one and we could do the other.

It's unlikely GWT would have a large enough force to completely destroy even one landing. The only way they would be able to do that is if they concentrated their entire army in one location, already giving up on any other. For them to do so would be folly. Essentially sacrificing a core is not good military strategy, and I highly doubt they would plan on such an action in advance. This is why we cannot allow them to get Steam Power above all else.

If we land 50 Cav and 15 Muskets at LZ4 and CFC does 35 and 10 at LZ3 then we can be relatively sure that we will get at least 1 city. After all, Cav have 3 movement, and we can land rather far away from where we need to strike eventually. All we have to do is stick with at least 6 tiles away from wherever they might be mustering and we have at least 1 dead core (even if they use Ansar for defense, 2 defense won't do much good against 6 attack Cav ).

	12-02-2004 06:03									#9
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quote: Originally posted by Togas Frankly, we're never going to have a better window of opportunity to invade GWT than this. I beileve we should begin planning NOW to attack GWT between MT and Steam. Should CGN happen to win or stalemate, we can simply keep the forces at home, but we should plan and prepare for the worst. My hope is that CGN and GWT will be deep into their bloody war and that GWT will have pulled every extra defender out of their core. If we pull this off with CFC's help, and we rapidly destroy their major cities, even if our forces are ultimately repelled their game winning potential will be finished. ... and I wholeheartedly agree that we should wipe out GCA. --Togas

The problem with doing this while GWT and CGN are still slogging away is that we don't want to hand the game to CGN anymore than we want to hand it to GWT. If CGN can hold their own, deciding what to do is going to be tough, but I think we should BUILD in that case... and hope the stalemate lasts.

	12-02-2004 06:21									#10
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An alternative path to victory for the non-warmonger

We evacuate CGN to a city on our continent.
We hunker down build build build with an increased emphasis on shore defense.
We get to modern era as soon as possible, get CGN's free tech, hope for fission.
We build UN (prebuild set many moons before in an inauspicious village so as to avoid sabotage from GWT espionage)
Hold elections, CFC, CGN vote for Poly, we win.

	12-02-2004 06:25									#11
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Wildcard: GWT.

If they try to invade us (and try to invade they will, if they see us getting too far ahead of them in science) then they will be able to muster much more material than we can. More coastal and bigger cities means they can build quite a navy early on. Sure, we can rely on RRs, Artillery and Bombers to save us, but why have something like that up in the air? It's much easier to drive the stake through GWT when we know we can do it.

All we have to do is destroy their FP and they're crippled.

	12-02-2004 06:32									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Trip It's much easier to drive the stake through GWT when we know we can do it.

quote: Originally posted by Trip All we have to do is destroy their FP and they're crippled.

my plan is just as farfetched and likely to be pulled off successfully as yours.

	12-02-2004 06:40									#13
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel my plan is just as farfetched and likely to be pulled off successfully as yours.

FP is 2 tiles from the coast. It can be attacked the turn after we land units. All we have to do is land everything we have (which would be a lot if we were preparing something like this) a tile away from Ruhrpott and there's no way they can resist our attack. That's why us getting Mag and MT before they do is vital.

	12-02-2004 06:45									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Trip there's no way they can resist our attack.

You don't think they will defend the coast by the FP once they realize we have magnetism? I imagine they have a decent garrisson out there currently, at least in the south, to guard against CGN landings, once the war is nearly over, they can shift more units evenly. Ansars cover a lot of territory in a hurry. I think they will crush CGN by the time we get both magnetism and military tradition and be able to reposition forces.

	12-02-2004 06:48									#15
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel You don't think they will defend the coast by the FP once they realize we have magnetism? I imagine they have a decent garrisson out there currently, at least in the south, to guard against CGN landings, once the war is nearly over, they can shift more units evenly. Ansars cover a lot of territory in a hurry. I think they will crush CGN by the time we get both magnetism and military tradition and be able to reposition forces.

How will they know we have Magnetism? Right now they're 2 techs behind and we'll soon only be 3 techs away from Magnetism. If the tech pace remains even we will get to Mag before they can even get Physics.

	12-02-2004 06:55									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Trip How will they know we have Magnetism? Right now they're 2 techs behind and we'll soon only be 3 techs away from Magnetism. If the tech pace remains even we will get to Mag before they can even get Physics.

How exactly do we keep up this breakneck tech pace if 1) we loan significant money to CGN and 2) have to raise an army of our own?

	12-02-2004 06:59									#17
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel How exactly do we keep up this breakneck tech pace if 1) we loan significant money to CGN and 2) have to raise an army of our own?

1) GWT isn't researching right now. We are. That being the case we will soon be 4 whole techs ahead of them.

2) Once we jump our Palace our economy will be much much stronger than it is now. We will be close to GWT in economic strength once we get things running properly, and will surpass them when our cities are further improved.

3) CFC's economy is at our disposal.

4) CGN can continue researching up until they point they croak.

5) We have a sum of 700 gold now, growing each turn and we don't have to loan it to CGN if it looks like they are going down the drain and we can keep it for ourselves.

	12-02-2004 07:06									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Trip 1) GWT isn't researching right now. We are. That being the case we will soon be 4 whole techs ahead of them.

I didn't realize we knew their techrate, have we spied on them recently or something?

quote: Originally posted by Trip 2) Once we jump our Palace our economy will be much much stronger than it is now. We will be close to GWT in economic strength once we get things running properly, and will surpass them when our cities are further improved.

mere supposition and wishful thinking at this point.

quote: Originally posted by Trip 3) CFC's economy is at our disposal.

what, 50 gpt?

quote: Originally posted by Trip 4) CGN can continue researching up until they point they croak.

researching what? at what speed?

quote: Originally posted by Trip 5) We have a sum of 700 gold now, growing each turn and we don't have to loan it to CGN if it looks like they are going down the drain and we can keep it for ourselves.

if we wait to loan it to them to make sure they won't waste it on fodder, it will be too late.


I like your plan trip, don't get me wrong, I was just providing an alternative route to victory.

	12-02-2004 07:23									#19
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel I didn't realize we knew their techrate, have we spied on them recently or something?

Diplo screen...

quote: mere supposition and wishful thinking at this point.

I've simulated GWT's economy as well as our own. There are variables, but it is a reliable way of predicting the strength of nations. In my Republic sim, I predicted our GPT within 1.

quote: what, 50 gpt?

50 GPT, rising as time goes on. They're building cities and Markets as well. Even 50 GPT is a quarter of GWT's economy, and should not be discounted...

quote: researching what? at what speed?

Metallurgy after Gunpowder. They're doing Gunpowder in 4 turns. Even after they lose some cities and things look like they're done they can still do Metallurgy before they're defeated.

quote: if we wait to loan it to them to make sure they won't waste it on fodder, it will be too late.

If CGN can delay GWT enough, there will be plenty of time to see things coming. If CGN can delay GWT only 7 turns before the hammer blow falls then they can upgrade at least 8 Muskets with their own economy. 600 gold from us and they'll have 18. That can make a big difference. Unless GWT lands from the ocean then we will have time to send them the gold.

If they land from the ocean en masse now then there's not really much anyone can do to save them.

quote: I like your plan trip, don't get me wrong, I was just providing an alternative route to victory.

I still think the way of the warmonger is the best way to chop these guys down to size. Again, we only have to raze one city and we can claim victory.

	12-02-2004 07:30									#20
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I agree with Togas - we should plan to invade regardless of what happens. It's better to start war preparations and formulating plans now than to do it once we realize it is too late.

Perhaps we should raise the issue with CFC as well, provided they don't tip off CGN?

	12-02-2004 07:43									#21
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I agree with WB who agreed with Togas wo sort of agreed with Trip who was later supported to some extent by ET and Arnelos. I would have mentioned MZ but he has yet to post in this thread.

Let's poll it!

	12-02-2004 07:55									#22
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree I agree with WB who agreed with Togas wo sort of agreed with Trip who was later supported to some extent by ET and Arnelos. I would have mentioned MZ but he has yet to post in this thread. Let's poll it!

I see your eyesight is as bad as your humor

	12-02-2004 08:34									#23
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Let's begin planning now to invade and if the situation changes, we can delay or cancel our planned invasion. Let's also clue in CFC now to give them the time to prepare their own invasion force.

--Togas

	12-02-2004 08:42									#24
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btw, this should definitely go into the AltSp2 since consideration of this operation requires that we begin planning it ASAP

	12-02-2004 16:01									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Trip I've simulated GWT's economy as well as our own. There are variables, but it is a reliable way of predicting the strength of nations. In my Republic sim, I predicted our GPT within 1.

Doesn't this mean that we may be better off going for the builder route instead of the millitary one. If we can indeed match them economically then why shouldn't we just use that rather than attacking.

If CGN were to raise their cities rather than let GWT capture them to give to GCA, would us and CFC not easily be able to out build them? Considering that both of us would likely be close to being maxed out in terms of corruption and so them building in old CGN land would be of little benefit and that GCA would be quite far behind CFC if GCA were to set up camp down there?
Would CGN be willing to stick around to give us the free techs?
We still have our GA to come and if we can get to nationalism before GWT get to MT they wouldn't pose much of a threat to us millitarily.

In the long term isn't our set up, city and palace placement and commercialness likely to mean we can take GWT in an economic battle even when you don't consider the likelyhood that we are alot better than GWT in builder terms.

	12-02-2004 19:36									#26
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LZ1: This landing site is directly in the path of returning forces from the CGN war. Any attempt here will get crushed before reaching any semi-difficult to difficult objectives. Its one glowing possibility if the fact that a landing here could slow returning forces to another landing zone (unless GWT/CGA does a unit warp).

LZ2: Most obvious and least effective option. However, with the numerous hills and mountians it should pretty easily succeed in razing Anja and Panama. It would not get any further. As a side bonus, depending on how much culture Sacken-what-ever has (and what is behind the hidden map), we could cut off their complete supply of Gems.

LZ3: To much of a mystery. However, it does have some advantages because of this. If we forcibably and aggressively map this area against GWT wishes, this might draw some of their forces into the region, possible prolonging the conflict with CGN. If this happens, this would make a great diversionary LZ for where the real one should be.

LZ4: This is the best choice for a possible invasion. If, for some reason, we were able to capture and raze their capitol, they would get an automatic free one somewhere else. If we were to take and raze their FP, they would have to rebuild it somewhere (actually, I don't even know if they would be allowed to rebuild it).

This is all a possibility IF: CFC attacks LZ2 with a diversion at LZ1. We attack LZ4 with a diversion at LZ3.

	12-02-2004 19:48									#27
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What about relocating CGN to this continent? Is that something they or we would do? That free industrial tech is right around the corner. But there are few safe zones on our continent that are also not next to our future capital. Maybe they would take the islands near CFC, that way they would be safe until at least marines.

	12-02-2004 20:05									#28
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quote: Originally posted by donegeal If we were to take and raze their FP, they would have to rebuild it somewhere (actually, I don't even know if they would be allowed to rebuild it).

This has just been sim tested, yes you can rebuild it, if it's razed. Makes for an interesting stratigy, of being able to move your FP. But it would be wasteful of sheilds or GL.

E_T

	12-02-2004 20:08									#29
	Re: Contingency Plan - GWT Destroys CGN Remove this text

quote: Originally posted by Trip We may be able to out-research them with CFC (and CGN's) help, but if they try to invade us or find a way to get the spaceship techs, then we will be destroyed ourselves or defeated in the final stretch of the game.

Hold on. If we can out-research them, wouldn't we have a fairly decent chance of a Spaceship victory?
With the help of CGN and CFC, of course.

Surely, GWT will reach Spaceship techs too, but if our advantage is big enough, maybe we can just pull it off...

And we'll hold off any invasion of theirs by building lots of railroads.


I like Sleepy's UN Victory possibility, too.

	12-02-2004 20:11									#30
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dissention is not tolerated BFM, be a good warmonger now.