01-03-2004 22:18									#1
	Turn 183: 690 AD Suffering from ads?

Some things for next turn I noticed when looking at last one:

- we still have 2 reg MI, and another 4 'extra' units for a minimum seawall defence. I'd like to disband them... one of them can shorten the build time of the lib in Typhoon to 1 turn.

Also, there is one last warrior, but I think CH disbanded that one, and I just see hte situation before it happened.

- Max Hurricane in commerce. By reshuffling WF it can generate another +6 bpt (from 96 to 102 on 70% science), -2spt. The bank gets delayed by 2 turns, but the 2 plains can get SS from a 3-turn to a 2-turn worker pump.
Needs a bit of mining to change SS into perfect shape.

- Tempest will need to grow to max commerce as well, once Newton has been built there. It'll have to wait until we know for certain we have coal, but I think after Arashi and EotS, this city will be the first priority for RR.

- workers: start gathering towards Arashi. As most has been forted already, we might pinch in a forester crew to get those 10 extra shields to Monsoon, or one of the harbor cities. I'll have to check where there once was forest in that area, as each tile can give the bonus only once.

- In the WoC area, some reshuffling can lead to a modestly growing D-ville, which needs that mkt badly.

- by giving the iron to D-ville (from Monsoon), it won't delay the uni build in Monsoon, but can shave of another few turns of the mkt in D-ville, getting from 9 turns to 6

- BB is called BB 1? strange... will change the name back to its original, if nobody minds

- in Hurricane, a bank will produce +6gpt (after upkeep), a CH +0gpt(after upkeep) +3bpt (estimate). The CH would be cheaper to build, while the bank that starts after that could be a nice prebuild for a factory, so I propose to go for a CH.

- we should get some idea on when factories will arrive. Nothing has been said about this, but I guess we half assume it comes from GoW or ND, in exchange for electricity. We can then go for RP, and hope for rubber

The reason is of course prebuilds and RRing: banks are good prebuilds, as will all the obsolete wonders be. And the faster we got those factories running, the better...

- In case GoW doesn't give Medicine to Lego, they are at least 17 turns from completing ToE from this turn on wards. Timing of Medicine is critical if we want to beat that deadline with at least one turn. We MUST have it in 11 turns, but to be comfortable we need it in less than 10 turns from now. So please ask GoW for 8-9 at most. If they cross us, we can kiss ToE goodbye

The good news is Arashi can get there for certain, even without coal. It will be very narrow, though, it wil use its last food in the foodbox, but will get there in 16 turns. Coal is a lot safer, of course. Otherwise the first mistake delays it by 1 turn.

- CH, probably not my last question, but which address do I send the completed save to?

DeepO

	01-03-2004 22:38									#2
	Inflate your Upload Space

Oh, BTW... first mistake in my new position... messing up the dates on the turnthread

It should be 680 AD.

DeepO

	01-03-2004 23:39									#3
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

I'm in favor of your ideas. Definitely toast those two regular med infs.

As for factories... we might want to check on the tech trading situation. All of a sudden the GoW/ND/GS cooperation seems to have fallen apart.

IIRC from the chat, it was supposed to go something like this:

GS - Steam, Electricity
GoW - Medicine, Industrialization
ND - Nationalization, something (?)

And we all trade. But now I'm not so sure.

-Arrian

	02-03-2004 01:55									#4
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Bravo, what a crew. Yes we are counting on Medicine from GoW, but who knows how they will react.
It would be easy for them to pay us lip service and drag their feet.
Giving us Medicine a bit late and hurting the plan, while declaring all the time they were are friends.

	02-03-2004 04:26									#5
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

I agree... we will likely have to persuade them a bit, and do not assume much cooperation. If necessary, I'd even give more to GoW if they deliver on their promise.

Say we promise them this:
- They will give medicine the moment they research it, which has to be within 9 turns from turn 183 (so in 192 we must have gotten an accepted deal from them).
- They promise to not trade that tech to Lego any sooner then 14 turns from now. (so Lego's turn 197) (Maybe best to ask for 15)
- Further, if we don't have coal and they have more then one source, they give us 20 turn coal instantly.

in return, we give them
- steam, either when swapping for medicine, or immediately if we don't have coal ourselves.
- electricity the moment we notice Lego has researched it, to ensure we don't give them any more advantage then needed. We'll wait until completely ending the contract, so after turn 193 at the earliest (or in case we have reason to believe they researched Medicine themselves).

I guess it gives us enough guarantees, as part of the payment comes after the contract. It's not too expensive for us either, we might need to keep possible to renegotiate if we have to.

It may be necessary to sell this to GoW. If they don't realize their importance, they might cross us. Short term, they probably don't want to give us Hoover, as they know that will be the result of their help.

However, they can't possibly do it themselves, not even with ND helping them. They won't beat us, nor will they beat Lego. And if they don't trade with us, there is a high chance Lego will get it (no certainty, Vox could get Nat as their free tech, in which case we have 21 turns from now).

So the choice is GoW's: either they help us, or they help Lego. A choice between two evils from their side

DeepO

	02-03-2004 04:48									#6
	Tired of ads?

I agree

we need a chat with GoW. They must understand taht the targe upon marines is lego, not us. Attacking us will do them no good long term. Lego first then us, they have to know that. Anything that advantages lego is bad bad bad.

	02-03-2004 04:55									#7
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Sleepy, do you care to set up a chat? There was some PM from GoW on chatting earlier, I don't know if anyone responded to that...

DeepO

	02-03-2004 05:58									#8
	Inflate your Upload Space

I'll try to set something up.

what times are good for you? If you care to attend.

Unfortunately I'm not in a stable situation, really, and am unsure when I will be home during the daytime...

	02-03-2004 06:15									#9
	Inflate your Upload Space

I think it comes down to them deciding that it is better inour hands than in Lego or even ND.

If they are on the ball they should realize we cannot be doing anything militarily at this time.

	02-03-2004 14:45									#10
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Sleepy, I'd like to attend, however I don't see it happening easily. If you try something like 11 pm GMT, or 12 pm GMT I should be able to join you, while it isn't during the day for you. Otherwise, I would just go ahead, or ask someone else to accompagny you...

vmxa1, that's exactly the point. GoW can't build it themselves, ND can't build it as both of them lack the research capacity. They can decide who to give it to: either actively helping us, or staying passive and let Lego have it. But Lego is a major risk for them... and with Hoover and 2 extra techs, they have won the game without much doubt. We have to tell GoW that, to make sure they understand it fully.

DeepO

	02-03-2004 15:19									#11
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

BTW does anyone know what ND are celebrating, or is Zayxus just copying CH's dancing smilies in his post?

	02-03-2004 19:07									#12
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations: Deluxe Edition

Eep. Could they have finished Newton?

-Arrian

	02-03-2004 19:11									#13
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Arrian Eep. Could they have finished Newton? -Arrian

we are the only team that has ToG, though perhaps lego will gain it this turn.

	02-03-2004 19:19									#14
	Increase the size of your Attachments

Is it possible for ND to get ToG on their turn, change a build and complete Newton's? Or (as my memory suggests) does the acquiring of new tech (through trade, research or stealing) come after the building phase is completed? What other wonders might they have built? Sistine? FP? Just captured all of GoW's cities in a surprise strike?

	02-03-2004 19:23									#15
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I think it goes:

diplo
tech
build

I think they were just screwing around. If GoW had been attacked, we would know about it by now.

	02-03-2004 21:14									#16
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

quote: Originally posted by DeepO vmxa1, that's exactly the point. GoW can't build it themselves, ND can't build it as both of them lack the research capacity. They can decide who to give it to: either actively helping us, or staying passive and let Lego have it. But Lego is a major risk for them... and with Hoover and 2 extra techs, they have won the game without much doubt. We have to tell GoW that, to make sure they understand it fully. DeepO

Maybe we should give them our evaluation of the status and see if they concur.

If they need some evidence then we could include some screens.

	02-03-2004 21:44									#17
	Support Apolyton, buy Galactic Civilizations

vmxa1, yes indeed. I think we should prepare an analysis for them, to convince them (if we need to).

There's one more thing we should probably mention: Lego is now strong compared to us. And, their power graph keeps on rising... they're building more units. Already, we think they can have a complete sea wall (otherwise it will be close), as they have more strength (which doesn't need to imply more units), and fewer tiles to cover. If they don't have a complete sea wall, they're not playing it smart, and so far Lego has been playing very smart...

military, they could probably handle 2 nations by now, so in case GoW wants to attack Lego later on, it will not only need the help of ND, but also of us. If Lego has Hoover, they could probably handle the 3 of us. It's bad enough they have the pyramids, giving them Hoover right after their GA would be suicide for the other teams. At least for us it is not like that: We need Hoover to keep at least a little bit competitive, as we're overall #4 now, and are falling because all our landtiles are already in use.

(okay, I don't really believe that last statement, we're still #2 in pop, GNP and Production, but it is a fact we're going to need special focus or fall quickly behind. And I doubt we'll be able to go for a SS victory, which means that when the new bunch of troops arrive, we'll probably have to fight another war or 2. If we can get the best production timed when we're building our new army, we should be able to win, even if we have the lowest tilecount)

DeepO

	02-03-2004 23:09									#18
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

That is how I see it. I do not see any real way to win without more land. This is because if we did manage to stay in the hunt, we would become the target and could not fend off all three.

We must have a war between Bob and Lego at some point. We almost surely have to participate and aquire land, even if it is only to swap it for RP.

Bob can wait on going for us, until after Lego is damaged. Going for us soon will net nothing for anyone that they need. Our land will be hard to hold with the wolve pack trying to get a leg up on each other.

	03-03-2004 00:18									#19
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

These are the addresses to send the save to :

darekill {AT} gmx {DOT} de
neudemogyptica {AT} cylusion {DOT} com

	03-03-2004 00:38									#20
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

quote: Originally posted by Arrian IIRC from the chat, it was supposed to go something like this: GS - Steam, Electricity GoW - Medicine, Industrialization ND - Nationalization, something (?) And we all trade. But now I'm not so sure. -Arrian

That was how I understood it. Confirming this would be useful, as it was also 'understood' that we don't trade tech with Lego.

I tried to spell out the case for them having to side with us or Lego on the ToE / Hoover in the PM to MZ, which asked them to reconsider on the ToG deal. Emphasising this point has to be a diplo objective.

	03-03-2004 00:49									#21
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

I am definitely uncomfortable about the "deal" worked out in the chat. There never was a formal written agreement, was there? ND doesn't appear to be playing along with our GAUL scheme, and once they're out, goodness knows what GoW will end up doing.

My guess is we will likely get a "oh, sorry, things change" or somesuch, while Lego nabs ToE & Hoover.

My cynical side is on top today, sorry.

-Arrian

	03-03-2004 01:02									#22
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

I've sent mz a pm regarding a chat, t try to get a time for it.

	03-03-2004 02:12									#24
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Not very promising, but all we can do is try.

	03-03-2004 02:34									#25
	Remove this text

Actually, in case Lego gets nationalism as Vox's free tech instead of either steam of medicine, we can go at this alone, we won't need GoW. If GoW cooperates with Lego and gives them med and not to us, obviously we're screwed, but otherwise there is a (small) chance we don't need help from anyone, and nobody can catch us either.

Let's hope it comes to that. Also, we must have some kind of guarantees that once we believe GoW will provide Med to us, they're actually doing it too. We've been crossed too many times by them. I see them perfectly able to help Lego as well, instead of only us...

DeepO

	03-03-2004 02:48									#26
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

Oh, the joys of trying to work out deals with Mercenaries.

-Arrian

	03-03-2004 04:08									#27
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

Indeed

Sleepy, if you go chatting with GoW, just post something here... if I can and am awake I'll join you. I'm sure that others will join as well if they see the announcement.

Nice topic of the chat, btw

DeepO

	03-03-2004 04:13									#28
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Yeah, good opener with GoW, sleepy.

I'll keep an eye out for any chat-calls, and let me know if there's anything urgent that you can't attend do and I'll try and help.

	03-03-2004 04:21									#29
	Increase Your PM Length

mercenaries eh?

I think I can use that angle a bit.

got a response from MZ, I'll probably just pop into their chatroom sometime and chat with him one on one, if that's alright.

what are my limits?

I figure to bring up stuff like:

Lego is now strong to us
need medicine by turn xx
going to try to build ToE
Goal is to advance asap to marines
get them to go for industrialization after medicine
cut down luxes to lego (to one for one)
some agreement about coal/rubber if we have none


The deal before was, correct me if I'm wrong:
GS: Steam/Electricity
GW: Medicine
ND: Nationalism

right?

we might want to hash out a plan through marines, how do we as a team feel about other trades?

GS: Steam/Electricity/Sci Method/Atom Theory/Electronics/Rep Parts/radio/motorized transportation
GoW: Medicine/Industrialization/Corporation/Refining/Combustion/mass production/amphib warfare
ND: Nationalism/Steel/Espionage??/cash to us/flight


Please someone smarter than me analyze that scheme. I know we are getting screwed, but take away the 2 free ToE techs and we are about even.

	03-03-2004 04:37									#30
	Support Apolyton, buy GURPS/ Alpha Centauri

GoW : Med + Indust
GS : Steam + Elect
ND: Nat + ?