 |
| |
|
|
DeepO
|
 |
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:34
|
|
Okay, I've got a bit enough of this games the other teams are playing. If Gow would cooperate, we can get to ToE in 9 turns from now(720 AD). But the price they and / or ND are asking might seem too much. So allow me to put all our options in one thread, so we can choose and have it done with.
First of all some statistics: we're running at little over 600 bpt, -50gpt, at 80%. we can research electricity in 5 turns (it is 3360 beakers), and have a rough 250 gold in cash. we need 4 turns for the 2400 beakers of SM, but will burn 200 gold doing so. Medicine is the same cost, BTW, so we can get that in 4 turns as well... on our own, without anybody's help, we will need 13 turns to the ToE, and 150 external gold.
OTOH, with one turn 100% tax, we can currently make 408 gold. Every turn we delay our quest, we can give 408 gold to GoW, should we need it.
Tech situation: ND does not have Magnetism. Lego has just researched Magnetism. Vox has neither Magnetism or ToG, but can get to the industrial age next turn. We will then know what they got as a free tech, and can be 100% sure if we can do it ourselves, or need GoW's help.
A lot will depend on Vox's free tech, which Lego can receive next turn. Worst case, Lego is on Steam right now, and will receive Medicine. That will mean they can get to SM in 12 turns. On our own, they beat us by 1 turn. Second to worse case, Vox will receive steam, and hands it to Lego, which will thus lose one turn beaker investment. That will get them to SM in 13 turns, by because of the turn order, they can finish ToE before us. All other cases, they can not beat us if we refuse GoW's 'help' (note, there are not that many cases left: only that Vox receives Nat as their tech, or doesn't share their tech with Lego)
Basically, I see these 4 options:
1. We do it alone. We will need 150 gold to do it, but I'm sure we can somewhere find this. IOf necessary, we put all our cities on Wealth for a couple of turns, or start to sell buildings. There is a risk that we will not get it, a risk that is quite large if Lego is planning their game well (and I see no reason to believe otherwise).
2. We sell Steam to GoW and ND for hard cash. We will need another 500 gold to be able to diminish the eta of electricity by 1 turn, do Med in 4 turns, and get SM in time. We get there in 12 turns, so the risk of losing to Lego is still there, but smaller. Their only option to beat us is if they are working on Steam, and receive Med from Vox.
3. We get GoW to do Med for us. At the latest, they have to deliver it to us in 7 turns (we have it accepted in 7 turns, so 6 turns for them). Lego can't beat that, unless GoW sells Elec to them as well.
3a: we provide the cash. We can send them 800 gold, in 2 turns and still be on schedule
3b ND delivers the cash.
Maybe there is something else I'm missing.
My option is the following: We demand an exact ETA from GoW, and work from that. If they can not sell us Med in less then 7 turns, we better do it ourselves. If they do, we ask them how much they need in cash. We can go to 800 gold, so if that's waht it takes, we pay. If they need more (I don't see how), ND has to be negotiated with.
Let's start from this, and before sending anything to ND, deal with GoW.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:34
|
|
I just maxed everything out in commerce (running deficit in many cities, but we're not going to play likes this, of course), and can get at most 884 GNP, still 2nd. At that rate, we're producing 779 science. We might be able to get a couple more by MMing it, but let's assume that Lego is capable of more then 800 bpt for the moment when running at 100%.
Steam is 2880 beakers, which is a piece of cake for them, they can get it in 4 turns for sure. Electricity is 3360, which is not so certain: it is possible that they will not be able to muster the 900 bpt it requires to do it in 4 turns, and have to do it in 5. However, they will only need it in a couple of turns, and you can be certain their also building libs in their GA. I wouldn't bet on it, in other words, let's keep the estimate of 12 turns for now.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
vmxa1
|
 |
Oviedo, Fl
Nov 2001
time: 21:34
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by DeepO
vmxa1, the problem I see with keeping GoW out of the loop is that they won't hesitate twice, and go to Lego. I think they are mere turns away from discovering Med, they said us some 5 turns ago it would take less then 10 turns, so if they have hurried it's already theirs. My guess is they're just keeping it at 1 turn from finishing to see how much they can gain from us, or Lego. At least I would do it like that, if I was GoW.
DeepO |
The thing is even if they say they are in the mood to do a deal, it does not mean anything. They have already stiffed us and delayed. So all I am saying is do no count on them. Try to deal with them, but not the kitchen sink.
We have no recourse if they say they will deliver and make a few turn after they were obligated to do it. For those reason, I will pay a premium, but not robbery.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:34
|
|
A while back, I proposed to have some kind of guarantee dealing with GoW: give them Steam plus something for Medicine, and if they didn't give it to Lego before we could use it, give them electricity as payment of them not crossing us. I still would favour something like that.
Right now, I'm kind of hopeful Vox will get the right tech. If they get Nationalism, I propose to go at it alone, and not risk anything on the GoW side of things. If they get Medicine, we can try to let Vox and GoW outbid themselves, or offer a good offer to both parties, and see who will bite first. If they get Steam, we're still bound to GoW...
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
asleepathewheel
|
|
listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:34
|
|
good luck getting a response from GoW. I sent MZ probably 3 emails via poly (after his pm box was full) and never heard anything. Which is why I mentioned before that it was easier to catch him in chat (which might be what they want)
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:34
|
|
Proposal for message to ND, to be sent with the save. I would prefer if Arrian sends (and probably rewrites) the message)...
quote:
Hello Zayxus,
We apologize for not begin able to fulfill your wishes on helping GoW reach medicine early. For the maximum of 1000 gold they need, getting over 14000 beakers in return is a bit too much, I'm sure you can understand. We want to make you nice offers, but I guess you wouldn't accept us getting a tech like e.g. Nationalism from you for 200 gold.
Plus, the situation has changed: now that Vox received Nationalism as a free tech and not steam or medicine, the urgency has deminished. Lego can't get these for free, which leaves us enough gold to sponsor GoW ourselves, if they need any help.
That doesn't mean we don't want to trade with you. Previously, we had a deal in chat, in which ND would trade Nationalism, GoW would trade Medicine, and GS would trade Steam on an equal cost basis. Even if the value of Nationalism has now deminished (as Vox also has it), we would still be interested in a Nationalism - Steam trade. Otherwise, we would be happy to sell you Steam for gold or lux.
Are you interested in this, and if so, please make an offer. As long as the beaker to gold ratio is not 14 to 1, I'm sure we can trade.
Sincerely,
DeepO
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:34
|
|
and while we're at it, a proposal for a message to GoW:
quote:
Hello GoW,
As asked previously, we would be highly interested in knowing what your fastest eta on Medicine (disregarding deficit spending) would be, and how much gold you would need to meet that eta.
You might have heared Vox received Nationalism as a free tech, which changes the situation quite a bit. We can now research Medicine ourselves, and still beat everyone else to the ToE. However, in the spirit of GAUL (which we're the only ones still keeping to, it seems, as ND has become Lego's primary trading partner), we would prefer that we get Medicine from you, as was agreed in chat previously.
Very specific: we propose the following deal:
- We trade you Steam for Medicine, as was agreed upon in chat, some 8 turns ago.
- If you keep it from Lego for at least 5 turns, we will give you electricity as an extra.
- the sooner you can deliver the tech, the more gold we would be willing to give you for doing deficit research. However, we have a quite precise idea of your research capabilities, and figure you should have nearly gotten the tech without doing any deficit spending at all. We doubt much gold is needed, but we can negotiate on that.
We know we will receive two extra techs out of this deal, but the investment on our side was biggest for sure, and we feel we're giving you a good deal. We were a bit lucky with Vox's free tech, which should make the negotiations a lot easier.
On a related note: we should schedule a chat sometime soon, to discuss the global situation. With ND helping Lego, this game is fastly becoming a disaster for us. When #1 and #2 help each other, #3 and #4 have no hope for winning unless something drastic happens. Being #4 doesn't mean we've lost already, but we're going to need your help to even scratch the might of Lego and / or ND.
|
|
|
| |
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:34.
Apolyton Time is 00:34. |
top of page
|
|
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
20-03-2004 01:02
|