27-03-2004 13:48									#1
	What do we do with our new neighbors? Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

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Last edited by BigFree on 27-03-2004 at 14:20

	27-03-2004 14:02									#2
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To sum it up:

If we're gonna take them out, it has to be now. After Beserkers, it'll be tough.

One big thing about their team is that they're not the best players. This can mean two things: They're easy to manipulate and keep under control, or they're easy to take down.

	27-03-2004 14:14									#3
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Ignoring the obvious -- we're going to act nice in diplomacy and prepare for the worst in military -- we do need to decide what our overall plan should be with CDG. We have two major options, and this poll is designed to direct the Consuls and Ministers towards one of them.

Long Term Cooperation

We embrace CDG, divide up the land, and work together as a team to beat down some other team(s) and happily stride together into the next round where our alliance in this game will give us an edge and an automatic buddy in the next.

We share tech, share luxes, share resources. We share intel, each scout out different areas. We have mutual defense pacts, and we try to diplomaticly direct them into doing things that we want them to.

We are stronger together and can stand against any team that tries to take us down. We can also outdistance other teams with our tech cooperation plans.

We create firm alliances to try to guarantee our way into the finals.

Rapid Destruction

We have the element of surprise and our early production has been stronger than theirs. We have two warriors on their border and if we snag a worker or settler, or cause them to disrupt their planning to rush a unit, we could cripple them now. With proper economic execution mixed with our military cunning we take them down now, before they are ever a threat to us, eliminating one of the necessary teams (so we can advance), ensuring our safety and giving us plenty of room to expand.


I'm sure there's more points, good and bad, to be made, and I ask all of you to make your arguments. This is a critical decision that needs to be carefully thought through and thoroughly discussed. If we screw up our attack against CDG, it could really backfire on us. If we don't attack them, we could wind up with a very small nation and possibly fall victim to their treachery.

Please, let the discussion begin, and please vote in the poll ONLY AFTER YOU'VE HAD TIME TO SERIOUSLY THINK ABOUT THIS AND READ THE OPINIONS OF OTHERS.

--Togas

	27-03-2004 14:17									#4
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Note: BigFree and I made two different polls and threads for the same issue. I have merged the two into this one.

--Togas

	27-03-2004 14:18									#5
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All things considered, I'd prefer to play it safe. This early, anything can happen. They could pop a city of a goodie hut, have a swarm of exploring warriors that we can't see around Apolyton, anything. Strong arm them to get a little more leverage, yes, but don't intend to fight them outright, at least not this early.

	27-03-2004 14:27									#6
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I say we take this golden opportunity against a rival. In 4 turns we could have 2 Warriors facing just 1 in a Capital city. We'd have all kinds of room for expansion.

If CDG fends us off, then they would become reluctant trading parteners; but still trading parteners since it's in botht our interests to do so. They may never "trust" us again so we just plan on using an "Archer rush at a later time.

An attack against them now would severly cripple them even if we don't succeed in taking their Captital. Tehy would likely have to Pop-rush units to defend or they could end up losing precious turns by keeping their workers inside their Captial or even adding them back into it. Putting them behind by this much will mean that an Archer rush can be that much more effectively used against them and won't cost us as much to pull it off.

I say we give it a go in 4 turn from now.

	27-03-2004 14:31									#7
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A friendly stance helps them more than it helps us.

CDG wants to get to Invention in the Mideval Age so it can destroy everything in its path with the most destructive unit in the game (for its timing), the Bezerk. Poly, OTOH, should want to stay in the Ancient Age longer as our UU becomes obsolete with Feudalism in the Mideval Age.

To put it simply, trading with them will impair our UU quicker and make their UU come faster.

Go Aggresive.

	27-03-2004 16:57									#8
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I would also like to point out that taking an agressive stance with them DOES NOT mean we are going to war. All it means is that a unique oppertunity has presented us with a chance of seriously incompasitating (or eliminating) an opponnet early in the game. A vote of aggression means that we move forward with plans of attack but weather or not to actually do so will come later. A vote of friendliness means we forgo this early oppertunity and send our explorers in different directions.

	27-03-2004 20:10									#9
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I hate to make such a long reaching decision based on limited data. Its not unlikely that there is a 3rd civ on this landmass and we don't know who or where.

An early war with them, if the RNG isn't kind, is going to impair our growth as well....certainely not as much as theirs but it will some.


So I would be 100% against being aggressive right now.....except if did take them out, that almost guarantees us entry to the next game. 1 of 2 would be gone, and likely there'd only be 1 more civ on our landmass to deal with, with plenty of space for both sides to live comfortably for a long while.

I haven't voted yet. Either way is a gamble.

	27-03-2004 21:10									#10
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Yes either way is a gamble... and I call for an attack on them as soon as we can.

If we can bring round 1 to a quick close, then we have achieved a major goal.

yes we do need to win these battles with CDG
yes we do need to be one of the teams that advances.

	27-03-2004 21:30									#11
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thanks for the update, I thought to propose the same but I was not sure why

I have never built second worker as first unit in all my games until now. It is pointless. What could he do? But this is not me. Considering this we have two possibilities:

1. They have built one additional worker. This means they have very bad starting position (which is not possible because someone has checked this). CDG can create only warriors (am I wrong?). How many warriors could they have? Maybe 2. And 2 workers. Why do not capture them or let them hide their workers in the city?

2. No worker created - they should have built some structure. Why else will they wait 15 turns until they grow in size? Then how many warriors could they have? 1 or even no warriors. Why not attack?

If they have 1 or 2 warriors how many of them are scouting? Possibly 1. What can we fear then? one warrior to find us? I doubt - we have explored using the shortest way to them (without knowing this, of course, but it is a fact). I guess we will not see any scout around our borders.

IMO we should more aggressively towards them. We don't need to go to war but we should set the pressure. We have four turns until we decide what to do. Another reason is that we need the ivory - it is approx. the same distance between us and them and we have to beat them for it.
I guess these are all my concerns about this.

	27-03-2004 22:58									#12
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i vote agressive. strong arm them now, keep them crippled at the very least.

the worst case scenario for our two warriors there is that they have a spearman in the city, which is not likely. even in this event, we could station our warriors near the city, and pounce on workers.

they will undoubtedly know what we are doing, and either
1. pull the workers into the city. cripple their development. good.
2. move a defending unit onto the worker. less defense at the capital, less explorers. good.
3. nothing. trust us. good. the fools.

the worst case scenario for Apolyton itself is that they have 1 or 2 warriors close enough to Apolyton.

first off, the odds of that are unlikely. the path we walked to get there is arguably the shortest path, and we stuck to the high ground. we would have seen them if they were walking NEAR that path. this means that either
1. they do not have explorers
2. their explorers went a different diection. (north? east?)

if, by some hand of fate, they show up with 2 warriors to Apolyton's borders, we could always switch to a Hoplite. sure, thats a blow to us, and a decent one at that, but the odds of this scenario happening are far too low to seriously consider.

	27-03-2004 22:59									#13
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it appears as though my speech wasn't even needed

who's the limey CDG lover who voted friendly?

	28-03-2004 00:48									#14
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It wasn't me. I voted aggressive too. If a war is what happens then so be it, but even if we do not go to war we can cripple them just by threatening their area.

	28-03-2004 00:59									#15
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Yes, it's a risk. But yes, we could cripple or perhaps even destroy them.

But, is such a risk necessary?

We have Hoplites and the Bronze Working to build them, a fearsome UU that could make them think twice about attacking an approaching stack. They have Warrior Code, needed for building Archers, likely the other element of an early attack stack of ours. And we have a granary capital set up to help us REX.

If we go friendly for now, we could get WC out of them while setting up a close-in core for early barracks & units. Then, we churn out archers with some Hoplites for protection. More investment needed in order to overcome their investments, yes. More time needed, yes. But likely less risk then going in with two warriors without knowing what defenses they have around their capital and what extra units they can build by the time we'd be next to it.

I still lean toward aggressiveness, actually. We don't need to destroy their capital, but rather cripple them by taking their worker and/or forcing them to build another unit, possibly with a poprush. Also, we wouldn't just be taking this risk to cripple them; we'd be taking it so that we don't have to spend resources in quite such a massive buildup later. But, I thought some devil's advocacy was needed.

	28-03-2004 01:16									#16
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I vote we lurk and decide when we have more information.

If they do send a settler out undefended, we should pounce.

If they send it out with a spear, then we should probally take a friendly approach unless we are feeling lucky.

I don't think we should charge their capital with 2 warriors and hope for the best though.


Unfortunately neither friendly nor aggressive fits that stance, so I'm going to abstain.

	28-03-2004 02:34									#17
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Can someone run one of the battle calculators for a 2 vs 1 warrior?

I did it with Zachs, and got that on the first attack the average HP left for the defender is 2 (assuming regular, NOT a vet).

And on the second attack I got a 63% chance of success when the defender is dowm to 2 pips.

Can someone check me on this?

	28-03-2004 03:48									#18
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It depends on the terrain or if their defender is fortified or not.

If they have one Reg Warrior fortified with the city being not on a hill or accross a river then our chances of complete victory with two Reg Warriors attacking are ~75%; with two Warrior's it's ~13%.

If they have the same Warrior but are on a hill, then our chances drop to ~60%; with two Warrior's it's ~7%.


If the have the same Warrior and are accross a river with no hill then our chances are ~67%; with two Warrior's it's ~9%.

If the have the same Warrior and are on a hill AND accross a river then our chance are ~53%; with two Warrior's it's ~5%.

If they have more than 1 Warrior we should scrap the idea. My thought is that they will only have one. Looking at thier Civ traits it's very much likely they they built a Curragh as either their first or second build. If we see a Warrior scouting about in the next 1-3 turns then we can be mostly assured that they do not have more than one Warrior at home if any at all. Though once they spot us they could change builds and pop one out.

I think it's a risk, of course, but a calculated risk that is in our favor and one that would wrap up this game for us very quickly.

Donegeal makes a great point about slowing the Tech race to allow for a longer period of time for the Hoplite to reign supreme. Our aggressive stance towards CDG will then not harm us if we are to take this approach. CDG is banking on getting to Invention; why else pick the Vikings?

Let's go find Ragnar!

	28-03-2004 04:55									#19
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Clearly a minority view here. I voted friendly. My reasoning is based on a longer-term view, paralleling what Togas has already brought up. I would like to see CDG go through to the next round with us.They will not be on the medal podium.

And, I don't think this game is not going to make it to the point where beserkers will be an issue. I think it will be all over by then.

I would like to know who else is on our continent. I agree that there may be a golden opportunity now - but if it backfires - well, it won't be the end of the world as we know it - but we will have alienated a potential ally to start with - and we may end up having to fight off two civs on our continent. Which would be the worst of all possible scenarios.

I like the plan of co-opting CDG's help - and hunting down the third civ.

	28-03-2004 05:31									#20
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I agree that I wish it were not CDG that we wre dealing with in this situation. They proved to be very amiciable and trust worthy in the PTW ISDG. I would like to take them with us into the finals, but two teams MUST go and we have an oppertunity to viturly ganruntee that one of the two is not us. This is far more important to me than picking allies for a game that we might not make it to otherwise.

	28-03-2004 05:38									#21
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I would like to think that if CDG were the one in our shoes and had the potential of virtually assuring they were in the finals that they would take it too. This first game is cutthroat. Diplomacy is good, but not at the expense of not making it to the second game.

If we take an aggressive stance now and we need to back down if we realize that war won't be viable, then the diplomacy can begin then. Whether or not the war happens we still have the advantage throughout the ancient age with our superior defenders.

	28-03-2004 05:52									#22
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The save is currently with CDG. It will be interesting to see how long it takes them to play. We could also be expecting contact with them if they have a warrior scouting the land near Grog.

The longer they have it, the more likely that something is going on.

BTW, looking at the map and our proposed attack plan (where the attack would actually be on turn 26, 6 turns from now with them only knowing of the possibility for two turns) we will be facing 1 fotified Warrior behind a river and one rushed warrior, unfortified and behind that same river. So I think the possibility of taking them out with this is slim, but crippling them to the point where we can take them with a better situation is a definate.

	28-03-2004 06:23									#23
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I more or less agree with Beta's sentiments above, but I want to wait and see how they send their settler out. If they send it out unescorted (or with a lone warrior even), then the opportunity is too good to pass up IMO.


As for the 3rd civ on our continent, thats not definate. There's only 5 civs in the game, and I believe this is a continents map. That probally translates to one continent of 3 and one continent of 2. It could easily just be us and CDG, in which case we almost *have* to take them out.

	28-03-2004 07:06									#24
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Good news. Save sent to PAL in under 4 hours (their typical playing time).

	28-03-2004 07:54									#25
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quote: Originally posted by wervdon I more or less agree with Beta's sentiments above, but I want to wait and see how they send their settler out. If they send it out unescorted (or with a lone warrior even), then the opportunity is too good to pass up IMO. As for the 3rd civ on our continent, thats not definate. There's only 5 civs in the game, and I believe this is a continents map. That probally translates to one continent of 3 and one continent of 2. It could easily just be us and CDG, in which case we almost *have* to take them out.

Thats most likely however, FortyJ who is now helping Elucidus as one of the admins published a map iof what could have been, It was one of the 5 or 6 maps that was considered for the game. he made it a game for us to play with if we wanted to.

It had 2 civs on one continent, 2 on another, and one all by its lonesome on a third.

Im not syaing this one is that way but its a possibility..

	28-03-2004 08:30									#26
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Take it serious or not, I don't care, but this is the answer of Apollo:

A messenger will come, probably as a friend and he will bring something unexpected. If not a messenger will come, there will be an unexpected advance or proposal. What he brings will cause instability in the direction you were going at and it might cause you to alter your goal or direction. Finally beware for someone spying at you, try to keep the authority.

So Apollo Speaks.

I attend you on the fact that this is the fouth time I predicted the asame thing: someone will come and there will be spying. Last three times this preson was evil, now he seems to be friendly, but that may be a trick.

Just stay alert when you recognise anything of this.

EDIT. An additional prediction showed three times that a messenger will come. so that makes seven times for a messenger who is to come.

Aidun
Priest of Apollo

Last edited by Aidun on 28-03-2004 at 09:11

	29-03-2004 03:06									#27
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Can someone interpret this for me. Apollo is on the juice I think.

	29-03-2004 05:47									#28
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You know, the ancient Greeks at Delphi always had at least two priests working the Oracle: A priest(ess) to get messages from the gods, and another priest to interpret the divinations.

	29-03-2004 06:57									#29
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And just out of curiosity - what would the priest and priestess do when the were not divining or translating???

	29-03-2004 07:56									#30
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no hanky panky. these are greeks, and thats a woman.