06-04-2004 19:27									#1
	Start of Civil War? Attacks Across Iraq! Tired of ads?

Apart from the dozen or so US Marines killed lately in Baghdad and the Falluja area, there have been reports of Shia attacks against US, UK, Spanish, Italian and Ukrainian troops up and down the country!

About a dozen Italian troops injured in Nasiriyah

One Ukrainian dead and five wounded in Kut

Lots of dead Iraqis.

So is this the beginning of the bloodbath that some people have predicted as the previously peaceful Shia population starts getting uppity?

Do we need more US troops in Iraq?

Will the transfer of power still go ahead on the 30th of June?

	06-04-2004 19:28									#2
	Tired of ads?

In other words -- "Is it Vietnam yet?"




yawn

	06-04-2004 19:30									#3
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In other words, you think a "civil war" has only just begun??

	06-04-2004 19:31									#4
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Yeah -- try telling the Kurds in northern Iraq that the civil war only just began.

	06-04-2004 19:31									#5
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Not yet. This is Sadr's boys trying out their muscle, but they are not backed by the much larger and influential Shi'ite groups. Certainly this upising is a mayor headache, but as long as it is limited to the extreme of Shi'ite politics, it is not the start of anything.

The uS might have to consider mor troops though (heck, they should have always considered twice as many troops, as Shinseki suggested!)

	06-04-2004 19:33									#6
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand In other words, you think a "civil war" has only just begun??

No, dummy. This is not a Civil War at the moment in the slightest...

Are the Kurds fighting?

No.

This is peanuts at the moment.

	06-04-2004 19:34									#7
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Do we even have a reliable casualty report? For the amount of violence that has been going on today, 4 coalition dead sounds surprisingly low.

	06-04-2004 19:35									#8
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS No, dummy. This is not a Civil War at the moment in the slightest... Are the Kurds fighting? No. This is peanuts at the moment.

I like peanuts.

	06-04-2004 19:36									#9
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Dummy? That's rich.


This explains the outcry from the "beginning" of dealing with Hussein.
Not noticing until you're *****slapped into paying attention.

And I'm not talking strictly Kurds, oh informed one.

	06-04-2004 19:39									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Eli Do we even have a reliable casualty report? For the amount of violence that has been going on today, 4 coalition dead sounds surprisingly low.

Running KIA total in last couple of days is something like

15 US Marines
1 Spanish soldier (or El Salvador)
1 Ukrainian

+ injured: Italian, British, US, Ukrainian, Spanish speaking = several dozen...

Lots of dead and wounded Iraqis

Sounds like more than your usual run of the mill...

	06-04-2004 19:46									#11
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21 US soldiers killed in the last three days.

Not a major revolt yet, but it doesn't look good.

	06-04-2004 19:46									#12
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand Dummy? That's rich. This explains the outcry from the "beginning" of dealing with Hussein. Not noticing until you're *****slapped into paying attention.

Not this crap again. WMD = NONE! The only good excuse left was that Saddam was a bad man and had to be removed...

Well frankly he is no worse than a bunch of dictatorships around the world that the US is in bed with - when are we going to invade them then, huh?

quote: And I'm not talking strictly Kurds, oh informed one.

You're right, I was including MrFun's comment into the mix but that obviously sailed way over your head...

People are dying in Iraq yes, but hardly civil war proportions!

More like Washington DC proportions with the odd Oklahoma bombing thrown in...

	06-04-2004 19:47									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon 21 US soldiers killed in the last three days. Not a major revolt yet, but it doesn't look good.

That's worse than during the War isn't it?

Didn't Bush say the War was over?

	06-04-2004 19:48									#14
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Well, President Bush was talking out of his ass when he declared that the conflict was over.

	06-04-2004 19:49									#15
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The iraqi expert juan Cole expects that about 1/3 of all of the shi'its in iraq supports Sadr.
Now I don't know much about juan Cole reliability but if thats true i think that US is in for a hell of a problem whith the war going in to a knew stage...

source: http://www.dn.se/DNet/jsp/polopoly....ousRenderType=6 (swedish)

DN is a pretty good reliable newspaper in Sweden...

	06-04-2004 19:51									#16
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he has also called for Jihad and if many Iraqis follow there will SERIUS trouble with fanatics who will easily risk their lifes to get rid of the ockupants..

(sorry bout bad english)

	06-04-2004 19:54									#17
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Holy ****!

I read it was only about 10-15%

What is worse is what the moderate leader said:

quote: The Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country's leading religious figure, called for an end to the violence but said the cause of Mr Sadr's supporters was "legitimate". He urged calm so the problems could be "resolved through negotiations".

So arresting him might provoke a moderate backlash...

	06-04-2004 20:01									#18
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quote: Originally posted by Eli Do we even have a reliable casualty report? For the amount of violence that has been going on today, 4 coalition dead sounds surprisingly low.

Here is the casualty list for all coalition deaths so far:

Forces: U.S. & Coalition/Casualties

People like Sloww and the other chickenhawks on this site can come face to face with the young men and women that have been needlessly killed by policies they support...

quote: There have been 718 coalition deaths, 616 Americans, 59 Britons, five Bulgarians, one Dane, one Estonian, 17 Italians, two Poles, one Salvadoran, 11 Spaniards, two Thai and three Ukrainian, in the war as of April 5, 2004. The list below reflects the names of the soldiers, Marines, airmen and sailors whose families have been notified of their deaths by each country's government. There have been 3,457 U.S. troops wounded in the war, according to the Pentagon. This list is updated regularly.

Even I didn't realise that the US had suffered over 4,000 casualties so far!!!

	06-04-2004 20:06									#19
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quote: The iraqi expert juan Cole expects that about 1/3 of all of the shi'its in iraq supports Sadr.

Juan Cole doesn't know ****.

The last scientific poll done in Iraq showed that 0.6% of Iraqis thought Sadr was the most respected leader in Iraq. This compares to 5% for Sistani and 8% for Jaferi (Dawa party).

	06-04-2004 20:17									#20
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS Even I didn't realise that the US had suffered over 4,000 casualties so far!!!

Normal ratios of dead to wounded are about 1:8 to 1:10, so 450 or so KIA would get you to that figure. (Not counting non-combat fatalities as they don't correlate to overall casualties).

Keep in mind "wounded" can range from very minor wounds with the soldier back at his unit in a day to major combat wounds requiring evacuation.

Besides, some left wing morons were predicting we'd have thousands of dead and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, so don't get puked out over ~4000 KIA + WIA in 13 months.

	06-04-2004 20:39									#21
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I don't know about a bloodbath. People in this region have generally managed to keep their internecine strife at a lower level than that.

Unlike the Serbs and Croats in the Balkans or the Indians and Pakistanis.

But plainly those who aspire to increase their personal influence are flexing their muscles and seeking to raise their individual profile.

If the US/UK military withdraw there is no organised force able to keep the process in check. So there would be bound to be a period of anarchy before the strong man emerged.

Whether deaths this time round would be measured in dozens or hundreds or tens of thousands no one could possibly guess. But there is no reason to think that it would reach the million plus number that gets bandied around for the partition period after the UK left India.

	06-04-2004 20:45									#22
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How did I just know this thread was going to be a chickenhawks vs chicken littles thread?

	06-04-2004 20:51									#23
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It was posted by MOBIUS

There's a reason I only have two regular posters on my ignore list...

	06-04-2004 21:18									#24
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quote: Juan Cole doesn't know ****. The last scientific poll done in Iraq showed that 0.6% of Iraqis thought Sadr was the most respected leader in Iraq. This compares to 5% for Sistani and 8% for Jaferi (Dawa party).

Well, that "scientific poll" sounds like nonsense. Any that puts Jaferi over Sistani is demonstratably false. When was the last time that Jaferi could get 100,000-300,000 of his supporters rallying at one place (something Sistani did a few times)?

BTW, do you have a link for the poll?

I'll trust Cole's estimate of 1/3 of the Shia.

	06-04-2004 21:20									#25
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This is the CPA's fault: they publically announced that an Iraqi judge (who is not independent) had months ago signed an arrest warrant for Sadr -- and if he were captured, he'd be executed.

So what's he got to lose by inciting more violence and becoming a martyr himself?

The CPA should never have publically announced its intentions to arrest him. They did so for political points and it's costing Coalition lives.

This is quickly becoming a quagmire and this head-in-the-sand administration doesn't seem to want to do anything about it except give the Iraqis control at the end of June.

	06-04-2004 21:29									#26
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If he were picked up in secret, it'd be even worse.

No, the big problem is that the CPA didn't act on the warrant before Sadr's powerbase had a chance to rapidly grow. We were still trying to co-opt him, like we did with Hakim (and anyone who thinks that'll last either is fooling himself).

	06-04-2004 21:36									#27
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quote: Well, that "scientific poll" sounds like nonsense.

It surveyed 3,000 people, so I trust it. Done by the BBC and other western press. See page 15.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bs..._iraqsurvey.pdf

Saddam Hussein outpolls Sadr by 6:1.

	06-04-2004 21:38									#28
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quote: Originally posted by MOBIUS Well frankly he is no worse than a bunch of dictatorships around the world that the US is in bed with - when are we going to invade them then, huh?

Who would you put in a league with Saddam? If you have any special requests, we can take them down in order for you, if you'd like.

	06-04-2004 21:40									#29
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quote: Originally posted by rev This is the CPA's fault: they publically announced that an Iraqi judge (who is not independent) had months ago signed an arrest warrant for Sadr -- and if he were captured, he'd be executed. So what's he got to lose by inciting more violence and becoming a martyr himself? The CPA should never have publically announced its intentions to arrest him. They did so for political points and it's costing Coalition lives. This is quickly becoming a quagmire and this head-in-the-sand administration doesn't seem to want to do anything about it except give the Iraqis control at the end of June.

Leave the Communist Party of Apolyton out of this.

	06-04-2004 21:42									#30
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Besides, some left wing morons were predicting we'd have thousands of dead and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, so don't get puked out over ~4000 KIA + WIA in 13 months.

So were some right wing "morons". It depended on whether the Iraqui army would try to turn Baghdad into Stalingrad - in the end they didn't.