07-04-2004 14:20									#1
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In another thread I predicted Arsenal to go out of the European CUp last night, but also that they'd pick up just one point from their weekend games:

Arsenal - Liverpool (Fri)
Newcastle - Arsenal (Sun)

If so, it does really throw the title race wide open. They've got the biggest London derby agaisnt Spurs to play, and while their last game is against Leicester, the Foxes will probably be fighting to avoid relegation.

So if you could find 40/1 on Man Utd it's definitely worth a shot, if only a couple of quid. 33/1 is widely available.

	07-04-2004 15:46									#2
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Heh, if they are going to lose they are going to lose it to Chelsea, not ManUtd (and yes as someone who used to live in the shadows of Maine Road that might be slightly biased). Chelsea just seems to be churning out 1-0 victories when they're playing bad, which is championship form.

Doubt Arsenal will lose the Premiership though.

	07-04-2004 16:17									#3
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i can't believe we lost that, we should have been 3 up before the break. same as we did on saturday, we just couldn't turn pressure and chances into goals and paid the price. lampard's goal just destroyed our confidence, we let chelsea dominate the 2nd half from that point on.

we should still win the title, but we should still be in the cup and champions league too :/

	07-04-2004 16:20									#4
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Amasing night at the Champions' League, there. And Real lost, as well!

	07-04-2004 16:35									#5
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The Gunner players may be getting tired.

	07-04-2004 16:37									#6
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henry looks a bit off colour. he just hasn't got the same sharpness about him, but it's not as if we can rest him properly. chelsea have got mutu and crespo on the bench, we've got kanu and wiltord :/

	07-04-2004 16:39									#7
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Relying on a star striker can be a big problem.

	07-04-2004 16:43									#8
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quote: Originally posted by C0ckney i can't believe we lost that, we should have been 3 up before the break. same as we did on saturday, we just couldn't turn pressure and chances into goals

Or even into shots on target.

John Terry was Immense. (As was Wes Brown on Saturday).

As for ManU winning the title. Chelsea are only 4 points behind but ManU are 12 behind. Absolutely no chance.

Henry out for the Newcastle and Liverpool games. Chelsea for the double!

	07-04-2004 16:49									#9
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yeah john terry was great, but on another day henry would have had 2 goals from the times he caught terry out.

	07-04-2004 16:57									#10
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On a good day Henry can get 2 goals against any defender in the world.

	07-04-2004 16:59									#11
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yep, he's not called the best striker in the world for nothing. we need him to have a couple of good days in the next few weeks though

	07-04-2004 17:00									#12
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I must say, I'd now rather Chelsea won the title than Arsenal. Arsenal's diving in the last few games I've seen them in is diabolical - especially Viera. Their attacking players always used to do it (like most teams), but now it seems to be spreading.

"The Gunner players may be getting tired."

90 minutes exertion shouldn't leave a fully fit athlete tired 80 hours later.

Man Utd won the Champs League, FA Cup and League without "tiredness" becoming a great issue, and we had to play more games in the CL that season too.

Obviously this Arsenal team isn't good enough.

MikeH - if Utd are seven points behind after this weekend's round of fixtures, would you still think it impossible? I actually think we'd have more difficulty overtaking Chelsea, right now..

	07-04-2004 17:00									#13
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Arsenal surely seems to be in a bad slump, being kicked out of two cups like that might test the players nerves. Also, I heard that Henry woun't be avaible for the easter-games. there might still be some excitement left in the premiership after all.

	07-04-2004 17:02									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue MikeH - if Utd are seven points behind after this weekend's round of fixtures, would you still think it impossible? I actually think we'd have more difficulty overtaking Chelsea, right now..

You have to overtake both Arsenal and Chelsea, that's highly unlikely.

	07-04-2004 17:06									#15
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"You have to overtake both Arsenal and Chelsea, that's highly unlikely."

Well yeah..but a greater probability than 2.5% - which means it is good betting to take advantage of odds at 40/1.

	07-04-2004 17:08									#16
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it's not good betting, because you haven't got a hope of winning it!

	07-04-2004 17:10									#17
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The idea with betting is not to back Man Utd at home every week just because they are likely to win. Good betting is picking out odds which suggest a smaller likelihood of an event happening than what you perceive is the real probability. Ie looking for value. You don't make money picking out the "certainties" every week, because a few will always fail.

	07-04-2004 17:16									#18
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And most of the longshots fail.

The bookies are always the winners in the long run.

	07-04-2004 17:18									#19
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PA, it's a bit like saying that a horse at 66/1, is a good bet because his recent form suggested he's more like a 50/1 shot. that may well be so but the bugger still ain't gonna win it!

	07-04-2004 17:54									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue The idea with betting is not to back Man Utd at home every week just because they are likely to win. Good betting is picking out odds which suggest a smaller likelihood of an event happening than what you perceive is the real probability. Ie looking for value. You don't make money picking out the "certainties" every week, because a few will always fail.

Did n't someone in the papers do a piece just after Xmas that showed if you'd had bet a set amount (say 100 quid) on Chelsea, ManU and Arsenal in every game where they didn't play each other, you'd have been in profit?

	07-04-2004 18:15									#21
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Saw the Arsenal/Chelsea game yesterday afternoon on ESPN2. Great game, especially in the final 10 minutes.

	07-04-2004 18:15									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Park Avenue Good betting is picking out odds which suggest a smaller likelihood of an event happening than what you perceive is the real probability.

This is true, but offered odds seldom give benefit over actual odds unless bookies offerings are exceedinly skewed by a lot of people with poor perception of reality.

	07-04-2004 18:23									#23
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quote: This is true, but offered odds seldom give benefit over actual odds unless bookies offerings are exceedinly skewed by a lot of people with poor perception of reality.

One reason why there is usually value to be found in betting against England, mainly in friendlies.

	07-04-2004 18:28									#24
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quote: Originally posted by Big Crunch This is true, but offered odds seldom give benefit over actual odds unless bookies offerings are exceedinly skewed by a lot of people with poor perception of reality.

Man U are always poor value in the CL if you bet in the UK

	07-04-2004 18:34									#25
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As are England in any tournament.

	07-04-2004 19:42									#26
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quote: Originally posted by reds4ever Man U are always poor value in the CL if you bet in the UK

I didn't say otherwise.

quote: Originally posted by reds4ever As are England in any tournament.

Betting against England is also a good form of hedging.

	07-04-2004 20:11									#27
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"Betting against England is also a good form of hedging"

Betting on Bolton a couple of months ago always gave a bit of value too.

	07-04-2004 20:13									#28
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quote: Originally posted by Big Crunch I didn't say otherwise.

I know, I was agreeing with you

	07-04-2004 20:17									#29
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And looking at the weekend fixture list, Arsenal do admittedly look good value on Bet365 at 2.2 (6/5) away at Newcastle.

	07-04-2004 21:51									#30
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Stop dreaming. Manure are toast.