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GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 09-04-2004 17:58
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Ignoring the general blather:

While Sadr represent a minority view of Shi'ite though, his actions have, if not raised his prestige, made the situation much more difficult for the US in the months ahead:

1. Iraqi security forces melted away everywhere-these are the guys we are supposedly going to keep Iraq safe..and they did nothing.

2. While most Shiia might not want to join and open revolt, the Shiia leadership ahs castigated the US as much as Sadr, and if the US gets into some serious fighting in Najaf and Kuffu, Shiia' will side with Sadr sympathywise, NOT the US-we see the same thing happening in Fallujah-general Iraqi sympathy, even among Shiia, is for the people in Fallujah and people do not blame the militants, they will blame the US-just like the Iraqi governing council is doing..

3. Oerdin is right-what the Shiia want is political control-which is exactly why the Sunni are nervous and the Kurds demanding a strong federalism, which the Shiia see as a way to deny them power. The interim constitution did nothing to fix this problem-and as of now, nothing has been done to actually make headway.

4. The fact is that almost all civil wars or insurrections begin small-the masses rarely want war and chaos-one motivated groups starts the mess-and everyone is forced to chose-which side do I back? Which side gets my sympathy. They do this if only to make sure if trouble gets to them, at least they have a side and will be safe. Right now, a lot of people are thinking about the choice-in theory, there should be three choices, The militants, the US, and the Iraqi council, with the hope being most will chose the last, cuase they certainly won;t chose the US and we don;t want them to chose the militants. But given point 1, the council and its security forces have been AWOL, lets guess who is elft to gain the greater sympathy? It ain't Kimmitt and Sanchez, thats for sure.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 17:59 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Kropotkin
I must have missed that...


Just about every interview with Iraqis on the street said the Americans have one year.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:01 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
How many of them were facing the hurdle of no experience with Democratic government,


Just about all of them.

quote:
no census information,


Some of them.

quote:
and little in the way of institutions still around from the old regime?


At least one of them.

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
Emperor
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Mar 1999
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:01
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Oh yes, random interviews on the steets...

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:04 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Kropotkin
Oh yes, random interviews on the steets...


When you want to know how people feel, it's a lot better thn asking Chalabi.

DinoDoc is offline DinoDoc
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AECCP loves Democracy
Sep 1999
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:04
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Now which one had all three hurdles che? Ha! No parsing this time to muddle the question!

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
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Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:06 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
Now which one had all three hurdles che? Ha! No parsing this time to muddle the question!


Russia, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Czechoslvakia . . . two out of seven functioning democracies isn't bad.

GePap is offline GePap
King
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:07
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If someone is serious about democracy, it takes less than a year to conduct a census. Besides, like the old regime didn't keep some lists and numbers-heck, oil production is back....

The thing is, the real problem isn't voter rolls and so forth-that is an excuse to ignore the fact even if an election were set up, there is no decisions about what people would be voting for, and what powers the people they elect would have.

DinoDoc is offline DinoDoc
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Sep 1999
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:09
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quote:
Originally posted by chegitz guevara
two out of seven functioning democracies isn't bad.
It's hardly a ringing endorsement for going way too fast though.

chegitz guevara is offline chegitz guevara
King
Ft. Lauderdale, FL Communist Party of Apolyton
Jun 2000
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  Old Post 09-04-2004 18:16 Visit chegitz guevara's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
It's hardly a ringing endorsement for going way too fast though.


True, but as GePap has stated, they could have finished a census a long time ago and had voting lists already drawn up.

This whole thing was handled increadibly badly. Stupid mistakes were made, opportunities squandered, offenses made, etc. Anywhere they could find a way to blow it, it seems they did.

Giancarlo is offline Giancarlo
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Apr 2000
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:07 Visit Giancarlo's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Alexander's Horse


I think you must be one of the most naive people I have ever encountered.

It's all part of the pattern of insurgency.


I think you ignore the reality and facts. It is typical of you.

quote:

"Coalition Overpowering Pockets of Resistance in Iraq
By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, April 9, 2004 — Coalition forces today unilaterally suspended offensive operations in Fallujah, Iraq, at the request of the Iraqi Governing Council, officials in Baghdad reported.

This move, they noted, will allow council members to meet with the city leadership and leaders of anti-coalition forces in an effort to quell the violence.

The coalition called the suspension at noon Iraq time so Iraqi government- provided supplies could be delivered to the area and to enable the city's residents to tend to the wounded and dead, according to a statement issued by Ambassador L. Paul Bremer III, Coalition Provisional Authority administrator.

Bremer stressed that coalition forces retain the right of self-defense during the suspension and "will remain fully prepared to resume offensive operations unless significant progress in these discussions occur."

During a Baghdad news conference, Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, deputy operations director for Combined Joint Task Force 7, echoed Bremer's assertion that coalition forces retain the right to defend themselves. "If they are fired on, they will fire back," he said.

Kimmitt told reporters offensive operations in several other "hot spots" within Iraq are "going well," and that the coalition expects to regain control relatively quickly of any Iraqi facilities occupied by militia forces loyal to Shiia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who is wanted by Iraqi authorities in connection with the murder of a rival cleric.

Besides Fallujah, Kimmitt said the only other Iraqi cities with "any measure of Sadr control" are Najaf and parts of Karbala. The coalition is intentionally keeping a low profile in both cities as respect for the Arbaeen religious observance starting today to commemorate the martyrdom of a Shiia religious leader.

Kimmitt said Sadr militia has been observed in some portions of Karbala, but that the coalition is taking "a very passive role" to avoid disrupting religious pilgrims, currently numbered at about 1.2 million.

"That was always the plan for Arbaeen, that coalition forces would take an outside approach toward the situation so that the vast number of pilgrims … could conduct their observances with Iraqi security forces and local authorities taking the lead," Kimmitt said.

He said coalition forces also are remaining outside and on the edges of Najaf in a "force protection status" during Arbaeen. "We understand that the Sadr militia currently are the predominant force inside the city," he said.

In Kut, Task Force Stryker led an assault to regain control of the CPA compound and three bridges into the town, Kimmitt said. Elements of the 2nd Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, and 2nd Light Armored Cavalry Regiment destroyed the Sadr bureau in the city and were to continue operations through the night. Kimmitt said the coalition expects to regain firm control of all government facilities and Iraqi police stations in the city by April 10.

"We have seen numerous instances in which the people of Al Kut, once they realize that the Sadr militia is no longer in control, are coming outside their houses and waving to coalition forces," he said. "We are fairly comfortable that the town of Al Kut is well on its way to coming back under coalition control."

Kimmitt outlined the security situation in other areas within Iraq.

The northern area around Mosul is "quite calm" and "quite stable," he said.

The north central area, which includes Tikrit, Kirkuk and Samarra, has experienced "a slight uptick in the number of attacks," Kimmitt said, likely by former Saddam Hussein regime elements taking advantage of violence elsewhere in the country. Kimmitt said the 1st Infantry Division is conducting offensive operations to control this threat.

In the west, Ramadi is "quite quiet" today, Kimmitt said, after a local sheik came forward to name 11 insurgents who had been fighting coalition forces. The coalition captured and maintains custody of all 11 insurgents, he said.

The south-central region of Iraq from Baghdad south, a predominantly Shiite area where Sadr has been operating, has remained relatively quiet with only minor disturbances, Kimmitt said. In the Sadr City section of Baghdad, the coalition remains "in firm control," with Sadr and his followers posing no threat the Iraqi security forces and coalition forces can't handle, he said.

The southern region, where the Multinational Division Southeast operates, is generally quiet, Kimmitt said.

Italian troops in the region are continuing offensive operations against Sadr militia in Nasiriyah, "but the latest reports from the Italian brigade is that the resistance is minor and manageable," Kimmitt said.

Dan Senor, the Coalition Provisional Authority's senior spokesman, said pockets of resistance within Iraq should not overshadow tremendous strides made since the Saddam regime fell exactly one year ago today.

He said the insurgents fear the democratic process in Iraq and "are trying to accomplish with the barrel of a gun what they could never accomplish at the ballot box."

"The coalition liberated this country from a totalitarian regime," he said. "There is lots of progress, but still lots to be done."

Arrian is offline Arrian
Emperor
Kneel before Grog!
Jul 2001
time: 00:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:14
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quote:
Apparently one thing they really regret now was disbanding the former Iraqi army. That meant a lot trained military people with a grudge and no longer getting pay or rations. Plus a power vaccuum.


Yes, big mistake IMO.

And Che, do you actually think they could recall it now, even assuming the US government would admit a mistake? Too much time has gone by, I would think.

-Arrian

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
Emperor
of Ålidhem
Mar 1999
time: 06:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:21
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quote:
American Forces Press Service

Unbiased source you got there Fez.

Wezil is offline Wezil
King
Ontario, Canada
Nov 1999
time: 02:05
  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:22
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quote:
Originally posted by DinoDoc
Hell it took us longer than a year to create a stable government in the US after kicking the Brits out.



...and still working on it.

DinoDoc is offline DinoDoc
Emperor
AECCP loves Democracy
Sep 1999
time: 23:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:23
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You get credit for the unexpected burn. I wasn't expecting it.

Wezil is offline Wezil
King
Ontario, Canada
Nov 1999
time: 02:05
  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:26
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So are we.

Oerdin is offline Oerdin
King
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Sep 2001
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 01:34
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I've said this since before the war and now that I've been in Iraq for a while the best possible outcome we can hope for is something along the lines of 1930's Turkey. A semi-stable democracy with a strong westernized military which is willing to step in any time the Fundies get to carried away with themselves.

uh Clem is offline uh Clem
King
Born in the US; damned if I know where I live now
Nov 1999
time: 23:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 02:35 Visit uh Clem's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
But as Doc points out quite rightly - how do you get out now?

??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????


Ships & planes work well.

rev is offline rev
Chieftain
Boulder, CO USA
Apr 2001
time: 05:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 02:38
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Giancarlo's right -- we are crushing pockets of resistance. But we're also losing coalition lives in the process and pockets of resistance keep popping up to replace the ones the coalition has defeated.

Let's put it this way: we're winning the battles, but we're losing the war.

Giancarlo is offline Giancarlo
King
Los Angeles
Apr 2000
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 02:56 Visit Giancarlo's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by rev
Giancarlo's right -- we are crushing pockets of resistance. But we're also losing coalition lives in the process and pockets of resistance keep popping up to replace the ones the coalition has defeated.

Let's put it this way: we're winning the battles, but we're losing the war.


People die in war. And no we are not losing the war. You people have one problem. This isn't another Vietnam. There isn't a force the size of the NVA in Iraq fighting against the coalition. FIrst off, coalition losses have been relatively light despite what the media wants to say. 600-700 Militia members from what I heard are dead. This is demoralizing those who oppose the coalition. I do not think so, rev.

This I believe is the last stand of militants against the coalition.

Tripledoc is offline Tripledoc
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Jan 2003
time: 05:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 02:57
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quote:
Originally posted by Gatekeeper
Hmm. I suppose it's "romantic" until one of those hundreds of fundies grabs you as a hostage and says he's going to burn you alive if your government doesn't turn tail and run. The "romanticism" kind of goes out of it at the point.


The word "romantic" does not neccesarily have positive connotations, like a "romantic dinner", or what have you. "Romantic" is used to describe something which is 'marked by feeling, rather than intellect, prefering wild nature and passion to order and proportion.' This according to the dictionary. As such it is irrational.

It is also simplistic to conflate the popular Shia uprising with the hostage takers.

Tripledoc is offline Tripledoc
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Jan 2003
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 03:01
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quote:
Originally posted by Giancarlo

This I believe is the last stand of militants against the coalition.


Well maybe your authority in predicting the future kind of went out the window when you wrongfully accused the ETA for being behind the bombings in Spain, and that was not even a prediction.

GePap is offline GePap
King
of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 03:03
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How I would love to live in the simplistic little world you live in..wait, no, it must be a very strange place...


Can the coolition beat the snot out of any of the current militants in a slugfest? of course-they only have assualt rifles and RPGs, the US has everything.

But lets talk about Kut, which you are tounting-line of events:

Militants storm the government offices-Iraqi security forces melt away-Ukranian forces come under heavy fire and are forced to exit. A few days later the US comes, and under all reports, easily enters the town due to little if any resistance...

To Fez this is a glorious victory!

I reality, the militiamen took all the weapons, decided it was tupid to resist, and melted away. Which means they are still out there to cause trouble if an when their leadership wants it....

Yup, great victory!

And in Fallujah, a ceasefire is called when Iraqi public opinion, including the guys who are our friends and what Fezbot would call the legitimate leaders of Iraq denounce the US....

So yes Fezbot, in the bodybag count, we are way ahead..in the winning hearts and minds aspect-if the leaders of the US appointed Governing Council denounce the US, maybe you can get a clue about the man on the street?

Wait, no, that would run counter to Fezbot programing-obviously it does not compute....

GePap is offline GePap
King
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Nov 2001
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 03:10
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quote:
Originally posted by rev
Giancarlo's right -- we are crushing pockets of resistance. But we're also losing coalition lives in the process and pockets of resistance keep popping up to replace the ones the coalition has defeated.

Let's put it this way: we're winning the battles, but we're losing the war.



One would hope the amdinistration would give a long hard glance at its plan to turn over power under whatever system they have right now (though they have not actually said what that is-might not even know), given the weaknesses in the transitional government, the security forces, and also has to guage the level of Shiite anger that the proposed federal system.

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Chieftain
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Apr 2001
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 03:19
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Giancarlo -- so it's alright that our troops are dying because this isn't as bad as Vietnam was? And it's alright if our troops are dying because we're still killing "the terrorists" at a rate of ten times more than they kill us?

First, you attack those of us on the left claiming that we WANT our troops to die. If that argument wasn't incoherent enough, now you say that, oh, a few dead troops ain't no big deal, and we're all whining about it. Not only do we on the left want our troops to NOT DIE, but the reason we make any sort of deal out of it is because human beings are dead.

Which is nobler? Wanting the troops safe (even if they're not home) or discounting the loss of their lives as being part of the war machine -- nothin' to cry over?

Giancarlo is offline Giancarlo
King
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 05:12 Visit Giancarlo's homepage!
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quote:
Originally posted by Tripledoc


Well maybe your authority in predicting the future kind of went out the window when you wrongfully accused the ETA for being behind the bombings in Spain, and that was not even a prediction.


This has nothing to do with Spain and it was logical to think ETA was behind it to disrupt elections to get the softer on terrorism Socialist party in.

"Giancarlo -- so it's alright that our troops are dying because this isn't as bad as Vietnam was? And it's alright if our troops are dying because we're still killing "the terrorists" at a rate of ten times more than they kill us?"

That's war for you. You can cry like a baby all you want about war, but it isn't going to change the basic concepts of it.

"First, you attack those of us on the left claiming that we WANT our troops to die. If that argument wasn't incoherent enough, now you say that, oh, a few dead troops ain't no big deal, and we're all whining about it. Not only do we on the left want our troops to NOT DIE, but the reason we make any sort of deal out of it is because human beings are dead."

I have respect for all troops based in Iraq and I don't want to see them dead. But if we listen to the left, more will die becuase it will end up in a disaster.

Gepap: You're pretty ****ed up. I don't think your little slander of a post deserves a reply. You don't know what you are talking about, obviously you do not look at the facts. We need to bring back 400,000 Iraqi troops that were melted away. I agree we shouldn't of dissolved the Army, instead just replace the commanders on it.

GePap is offline GePap
King
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  Old Post 10-04-2004 06:19
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Oh Fezzie Wezzie-the reason you are a laughing stock is that you attack someone as "not knowing" wihout having a freaking clue about what they said-in the end, only you look like the fool.


See, the problem is, you have a serious cognative disability: you do not seem to even attempt to understand what the other person has said. There are plenty of trolls in this forum, and some people who post openly insane things-they can be dismissed as quacks, but you are unique in that you think you understand and ridicule while in fact, you can't, you don't.

I will repeat it for you-and we will see:

Since the creation of an Iraqi governing council the US has been traning Iraqi policemen to patrol the streets. In the last few weeks, I really havent heard of any Iraqi policement getting killed fighting the insurgents-why? Cause the Iraqi police hasn;t in general done anything to fight the insurgents, specially Sadr's folks. Nothing-they stand aside, let government buildings and policestations be taken over, and seem to shrug.THEY (the Iriaq police, The iraqi police, the Iraqi police, the Iraqi police, the iraqi police, the iraqi police: do I need to say it a few more time?) are the ones that melted away.

the iraqi police

debeest is offline debeest
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May 2000
time: 21:35
  Old Post 10-04-2004 06:45
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quote:
Originally posted by Oerdin
I've said this since before the war and now that I've been in Iraq for a while the best possible outcome we can hope for is something along the lines of 1930's Turkey. A semi-stable democracy with a strong westernized military which is willing to step in any time the Fundies get to carried away with themselves.


With all respect, Oerdin, it seems to me you're saying that the best hope is a democracy, so long as the military takes over whenever a democratically elected government tries to run the country.

In fact, you're also describing a situation that's hard to differentiate from the Saddam regime.

Last edited by debeest on 10-04-2004 at 09:29

Giancarlo is offline Giancarlo
King
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Apr 2000
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Oh Fezzie Wezzie-the reason you are a laughing stock is that you attack someone as "not knowing" wihout having a freaking clue about what they said-in the end, only you look like the fool.


You really should investigate the situation before you make statements on it. I do not like that you would like to see the US fail (which is utterly despicable). Robert Baer said on Fox News today, that it is not in the interests of Sistani to have an uprising. His people would get killed and he would be worse off. He should understand that and should shut down Sadr.

quote:
See, the problem is, you have a serious cognative disability: you do not seem to even attempt to understand what the other person has said.


The other people on this issue are trolls and nothing more then trolls. I haven't seen anything from the other side on this forum that qualifies for anything more then a terrible troll.

quote:
but you are unique in that you think you understand and ridicule while in fact, you can't, you don't.


I do understand very well.

quote:
Cause the Iraqi police hasn;t in general done anything to fight the insurgents, specially Sadr's folks.


I am sure if you want to run at Kalashnikovs with a handgun... you should go join the Iraqi police. That's the reason why.

We don't need the Iraqi police that badly. We need the Iraqi Army back. All 400,000 of them (but replace the commanders). The coalition should start up paying the soldiers that were fired and give them equipment.

Giancarlo is offline Giancarlo
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quote:
Originally posted by debeest


With all respect, Oerdin, it seems to me you're saying that the best hope is a democracy, so long as the military takes over whenever a democratically elected government tries to run the country.

In fact, you're also describing the situation that's hard to differentiate from the Saddam regime.


The way Tunisia is operated is probably the best way for Iraq.

 
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