27-04-2004 08:38									#31
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Now this is interesting. I have read this entire post twice now. Great debate! Need to sleep on it.

So far I am convinced of two things:

1. we cannot sit by and hope things work out. There seems to be clear consensus on this. We will be the odd civ out.

2. that we need to decide soon. Some have suggested that we can wait a bit - and see what pans out. I'm concerned from a tech trading perspective. Two civs can clearly out-research one, and that advantage can be parlayed into a military advantage fairly easily.

(I sort of wished you had not made the trade offer to PAL con, as if the decision is that we ally with CDG, as a number of folks are supporting, we clearly would not want to do that trade. But now that it is on the table - it is going to be diplomatically difficult to walk away from it without our intentions being fairly obvious. Without an offer, I could have have take 12 or more turns to discuss terms, etc., and drag it out for quite some time.)

Also - and still on item 2, the ladderite military philosophy would indicate early and decisive action. So - we need to be allied one way or the other before then

Now - after those two certainties, I am still thinking. And again - great discussion.

	27-04-2004 10:09									#32
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I know that this game is real, but lets think for a moment about the next one pending how this works out.

Situation: We side with PAL and take out CDG. GWT takes out BAT.
In the next game, we go in with a great ally in PAL. Our relationship with them during operation "Exterma-group" was good. They, and us, look forward to meeting up again in the next game (where we can crush GWT ). We are now in the finals and have a great relationship with the number 2 team (us, of course, being number 1 ). This number 2 team is great at early combat and would assuradly take out, or weaken at least 1, maybe two civs in the final. Poly, with its superior diplomacy, can build and make friends.

Situation: We stay allied with CDG and manage to take out PAL and GWT beats BAT (or BAT beats GWT, it makes little difference). We now enter the finals with a great ally in CDG. We trust them almost completely. If we meet up with them, good things can happen. If we don't, I can't see how they can survive with their poor planning and strategy. At most, they will be a refugee civ.

By this reasoning, it is CLEARLY better for us to side with PAL in this game so we have a STONG ally in the finals as opposed to having a weak one (in CDG).

	27-04-2004 12:55									#33
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Donegeal, you lay it out there.

Pal certainly do look to be the better long term allie.

	27-04-2004 16:46									#34
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Looks like there are two competing ideas here:

If I may attempt to summarise...

Plan 1: Ally with CDG. We think this is good because some believe we can manipulate them easily enough, and we can turn on them if need be later on. We would be eliminating a strong civ, and this would help us in the later rounds.

Plan 2: Ally with PAL. We would be forging good ties for future cooperation, might learn a bit about their playstyle, and we may have an easier go of CDG than PAL.

What I would draw everyone's attention to is that one or both of these teams may not want such an alliance. Perhaps we can sound them each out about it, and see whether there is no chance of an alliance with one of them. Secondly, the longer we leave PAL, the stronger they will become and the harder they will be to defeat. We will have to either hope to defeat them early with CDG alongside, or hope that, in an alliance WITH PAL to take out CDG that one of the other civs goes, because PAL afterwards would NOT be easy.

We have no real info on their locations, and this is a critical factor as well. We need Embassies and city info ASAP. The two plans are still too hard to decide between, and it's not like we can put one into operation right now anyway without knowing exactly where their cities are and what they are capable of (resource-wise).

	27-04-2004 17:52									#35
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Your summary is acurate. I just have one issue with what you said.

quote: Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt ...the longer we leave PAL, the stronger they will become and the harder they will be to defeat. We will have to either hope to defeat them early with CDG alongside, or hope that, in an alliance WITH PAL to take out CDG that one of the other civs goes, because PAL afterwards would NOT be easy.

I don't see this as the case. PAL strength is in early combat. The longer THEY don't attack us, the more difficult it will be for them. We are the team that is superior to MM and squeasing the most from our lands. The longer we wait (or they) the eaiser it will be for us.

Con has said that F-P thinks of our team as the ultimate builder. Would you wait to build up forces to take on the ultimate builder, or attack him before he gets a chance to do what he does best?

We have to convince them that teaming with us and eliminating CDG is in both our interests (which I fully feel is in our interest).

	27-04-2004 18:03									#36
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Maybe, but the longer we leave it, the more units they will have, which makes it harder, seeing as their strength is in combat. The more troops they have the more options they have for tactical assaults. Also, I would have thought that generally the longer a civ is a round the harder it is to defeat. Even if we currently have as many troops as they now and we have 20% more than they do at the start of the Medieval Era it will be harder to defeat them then.

	27-04-2004 18:19									#37
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This will all be over before the mideval era.

	27-04-2004 19:46									#38
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The problem I have most with siding with PAL against CDG is I don't fully trust them not to decide to take us out instead. Either in a backstab right after CDG, during CDG, or before CDG. I'm not even sure that if we put an offer on the table with them, that they wouldn't use it to turn CDG against us as well.

From their perspective, I think we are going to be the bigger targets. We are the bigger threat to them, we have better land, we are in the middle, and we play better. They may want to take us out first, then finish CDG off, just for the prestige of having eliminated both civs from the qualifying round.

	27-04-2004 20:05									#39
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PAL and CDG ganging up on us is the one thing I fear as well. It actually seems logical for them to do it. The problem I'm having is comming up with reason for them NOT to.

We have to find reasons for PAL to not attack us.

	27-04-2004 21:59									#40
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I had a quick AIM conversdation with F-P this morning.

Ill get that posted soon and I think it includes some nuggets that may allay some fears about PAL.

Beta on the tech trade that was approved by counsels in chat and since we are trading a tech we got from CDG (that did not have an NTA) we will come out in the lead anyway.

If we didn;t do it then CDG would have in probably 6 turns so it was a matter of use it or lose it

	27-04-2004 22:06									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Donegeal We have to find reasons for PAL to not attack us.

Its called "hoplites".

They maybe very good at early age war but they also understand that early age war is a messy business.

And they respect the fact that we are the best builders in the game.

Beter building = Better potential war production.

These guys are good, not stupid and contrary to popular belief they are looking for "friends".

But again let me post that chat and then I will have further comments.

	27-04-2004 23:41									#42
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OK I finally posted the chat.

I think the time is ripe for a PAL/ Apoly Axis that will kick arse now and into the second game. Read that chat and post comments here.

They want a strong relationship that will last into game 2.

The have a solid core group of pro Apolyton guys.

They are thinking strategically

They distrust the Germans about as much as we do.

Im asking you all to again consider this before you make your final decision.

But whatever we decide, we need to be decisefull, we need to choose sides and stick with that. Im afraid sitting on the fence on this one is going to leave us out in the cold.

I said this months ago I believe in the early game strategy thread. Something to the effect of "If we dont build a cooperative relationship in game 1, we probably wont make it to game 2."

I still stand by that statement.

Last edited by conmcb25 on 27-04-2004 at 23:53

	28-04-2004 00:13									#43
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I would favor making strong ties to PAL now and early.

It'll be valuable info to be used later if nothing more.

I think the threat of backstabs is somewhat mitigated by the fact doing such a thing would make one less trustworthy to all teams later.

	28-04-2004 00:17									#44
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quote: I would favor making strong ties to PAL now and early. It'll be valuable info to be used later if nothing more. I think the threat of backstabs is somewhat mitigated by the fact doing such a thing would make one less trustworthy to all teams later.

What he said.

	28-04-2004 00:24									#45
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Honestly:

I don't care if we pick CDG or PAL as an ally, but we have to choose one. If most of us feel we can trust PAL and want to take that risk, then I'll support the majority. There is no "safe" choice here, best we can do is make a choice and live with the results.

If we are going to side with PAL, then we need to go ahead and be honest about CDG's presence. Then outright ask PAL which two teams they want to knock out of our game. Heck, they may want to do a triple alliance, race to the late middle ages and wipe out the other continent.

One thing to keep in mind though: No matter what choice we make we are playing with fire and we might get burned no matter what. My first instinct is to wipe out the biggest threats first (even though it'll be harder in the short term), while it seems some of the rest of you (whom I respect) would rather go the other route and choose the stronger ally (who by definition is also the bigger threat).

	28-04-2004 00:30									#46
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quote: Originally posted by wervdon One thing to keep in mind though: No matter what choice we make we are playing with fire and we might get burned no matter what. My first instinct is to wipe out the biggest threats first (even though it'll be harder in the short term), while it seems some of the rest of you (whom I respect) would rather go the other route and choose the stronger ally (who by definition is also the bigger threat).

wervdon I understand this concern.

And I think I understand the urge to help or go along with the underdog.

But this is an elimination game, and it would be nice for a change at least IMHO if Apoly actually had a competent ally (which we basically do not have right now in the PtW ISDG).

Thats why Im leaning this way.

It will make the final game a lot more interesting as well.

	28-04-2004 01:05									#47
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quote: Originally posted by conmcb25 But this is an elimination game, and it would be nice for a change at least IMHO if Apoly actually had a competent ally (which we basically do not have right now in the PtW ISDG)...

Hey now, the CFC team is doing.... uh.... okay.... We're a really good ally because we are, uh.... yea...

	28-04-2004 01:27									#48
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I have to admit, the recent chat between conmcb25 and F-P has promise.

If we get lucky and GWT goes to war on BAT very early on, an alliance with PAL to destroy CDG would be cake. Probably beneath the talents of Uber and our military folk.

It just leaves us in a postion where we have to count on an early GWT/BAT war. Being alone with PAL on this continent is a very precarious position to be in.

--Togas

	28-04-2004 01:42									#49
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that is unlikely, since BAT have enkidus (but are they 10 or 15 shield? I don't know with this patch). If the play it smart, GWT will what 'til they have riders, so we have to ride the storm.

On the topic of allies, if we pick PAL, then it would be best to slow doen any attack on CDG until the end of the war co-insides with the end of the era. This will mean that PAL have less time to rebuild their armies, and we can increase ours faster, since hoplites are 10 shields cheaper, and we will have a better core.

If we pick CDG, we need to plan very carefully, as to when we hit PAL. I honestly do not know when would be a good idea, since I cannot see any weakness in the anciant era for them, and diplo skills will not be good if they attack us.

	28-04-2004 01:43									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Vander Hey now, the CFC team is doing.... uh.... okay.... We're a really good ally because we are, uh.... yea...

I keep forgetting we have CFC "refugees" here

What is said here stays here OK?

And I did not mean that in a negative way.

CFC is a great ally in the ISDG. but you must admit that is probably not your best game ever.

	28-04-2004 01:54									#51
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quote: Originally posted by Togas It just leaves us in a postion where we have to count on an early GWT/BAT war. Being alone with PAL on this continent is a very precarious position to be in. --Togas

I dont think we necessarily "have to count on it".

I agree it would be a he11 of a lot cleaner if it happened that way and knowing the Germans the way we do they will probably start something, and who wins, at this point, who cares? We get the luck of the draw and can choose an ally on a 3 CIV continent. and do our "duty" of getting rid of a CIV.

On the other they dont have a choice other than to fight or ally and wait for the late middle ages.

If they do the latter, I think PAL would be a great ally to go after them. Again two powers working together are better than one. (F-P said this not me)

Plus look at F-P's comment on the Germans. He has no love for them.

So who do you want to go to game two with? (Looking at it thru PAL's eyes)

1. The Germans and French whom you dont know from adam?

2. Apoly as a strong ally-friend and the Germans or French.

I think we need to give them more credit diplomatically then we are right now. They do have some Apoly guys there you know

Thats my take anyway.

	28-04-2004 05:42									#52
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Everybody is assuming that the other two teams will eliminate one of themselves. I doubt that will be the case. I am beginning to think a three way alliance may be the way to go here. CDG just had terrable luck in a start position I think. Look at the tundra. Crap - we would have had trouble (but not as much as they appear to have gotten themselves into.)

If we all three agree to cooperate, we will all be in the middle ages quickly. Very quickly.

Also, CDG would be easy to take out I suspect once our rex is done (and the Republic gambit).

	28-04-2004 05:57									#53
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If BAT and GWT see a civ get wiped out (they will get the message) they will know that it would now only take one more team to loose and the game is over. It would intesify the relasionship they have with each other. They would NOT stay friends.

	28-04-2004 06:10									#54
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quote: Originally posted by Donegeal If BAT and GWT see a civ get wiped out (they will get the message) they will know that it would now only take one more team to loose and the game is over. It would intesify the relasionship they have with each other. They would NOT stay friends.

Im with Donegal here.

It would be very unlike the Germans to make friends like this. I think there will be conflict on the other continent.

Thats just my guess though.


And again even if they do ally, I want a strong ally on this continent to either repell the invasion or go after them.

	28-04-2004 06:15									#55
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quote: Originally posted by GodKing Everybody is assuming that the other two teams will eliminate one of themselves. I doubt that will be the case. I am beginning to think a three way alliance may be the way to go here. CDG just had terrable luck in a start position I think. Look at the tundra. Crap - we would have had trouble (but not as much as they appear to have gotten themselves into.) If we all three agree to cooperate, we will all be in the middle ages quickly. Very quickly. Also, CDG would be easy to take out I suspect once our rex is done (and the Republic gambit).

Hmmm ... now there is a thought. Our 3 civ continent versus their 2 civ continent. This is definitely an option.

On the PAL vs CDG debate - may I suggest another way of looking at it. If we side with one or the other, who would be the least likely to break the alliance.

In other words - we side with CDG against PAL. Will PAL be able to sway CDG over, or will CDG stay faithful to the alliance? And vice versa for PAL.

The reason I ask this question, is that it is the penultimate downside risk (the ultimate being them ganging up on us). Quite often it is best to look at a decision in these terms - if something goes wrong - what is the worse that can happen. Well, we know what can happen, but under which scenario is it less likely to happen?

(and I fully agree with the sentiment above. One way or the other - we will need to decide relatively quickly.)

	28-04-2004 07:18									#56
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I'm not sure that we need to make this decision yet. We certainly should keep discussing it, but I'm not convinced that it is a decision that NEEDS to be made.

I say we move relations with both PAL and CDG under the guise that we are fully intending to ally with them. We develop close relations with BOTH.

As we work on developing a close strategic alliance (Game 1 *and* potentially Game 2) with each of these teams, we have more time to discuss which we wish to invade or if we wish to join up with both against GWT and BAT.

Ultimately, I think this decision will be more prudently made after we learn more about PAL and CDG... how they behave... just how competent they really are as allies and thus we'd want as a partner into Game 2... and then decide on our partner(s).

I wouldn't necessarily call that "sticking our heads in the sand", either. We're going to HAVE to make a decision and then back it up, make no mistake. The point is that I'm not convinced that that decision needs to happen NOW.... we just *met* PAL. We should immediately start talking about the merits of a strategic alliance with them (ESPECIALLY STRESSING THE PRESENCE OF LUCKY AND GCA IN THE OTHER GAME AND OUR JOINT DESIRE TO KICK HIS A**), but we should not, I stress NOT, press ourselves into making a decision of which team to ally with and which team to fight this early.

Ultimately, our experiences of working with each team may do a lot to convince us of which is the better partner.

Right now, there are too m any open issues and we don't HAVE to decide yet, so why should we?

	28-04-2004 07:24									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Beta Hmmm ... now there is a thought. Our 3 civ continent versus their 2 civ continent. This is definitely an option.

Agreed.

	28-04-2004 07:38									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Arnelos I'm not sure that we need to make this decision yet. We certainly should keep discussing it, but I'm not convinced that it is a decision that NEEDS to be made. I say we move relations with both PAL and CDG under the guise that we are fully intending to ally with them. We develop close relations with BOTH. As we work on developing a close strategic alliance (Game 1 *and* potentially Game 2) with each of these teams, we have more time to discuss which we wish to invade or if we wish to join up with both against GWT and BAT. .......

Arnelos - I am worried that we may get too cute about this, and find out that PAL and CDG HAVE made a decision, and we are the target.

We have 5 or 6 turns before they meet; maybe less. In this time, we are still in the driver's seat of deciding on alliances. Once they meet and can talk, our position is weakened.

If we do decide on a 2 versus 1 strategy on this continent, I say we pick our dance partner fairly soon, before they decide the blonde across the room is a better bet (hard to believe, I know, but there is no accounting for taste, eye sight, or modern make up techniques.)

	28-04-2004 07:51									#59
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Im with Beta on this one.

I DONT want to get cute with F-P.

If they find out the third CIV is NOT the French or Germans and they will very shortly. And we are not moving towards an alliance, they may team up with CDG.

And CDG is worried we may still attack them. (See Vanders post in the CDG diplo thread). If CDG thinks we aren't moving towards an alliance they may think they are being more or less forced to ally with PAL to protect themselves.

I just got a letter from F-P

Ill post it in the diplo thread.

I dont think they want to see what develops

	28-04-2004 07:56									#60
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Oh my how some like to overanalyze.

Just choose one ally, don't play around. Choose one, make it soon, and stick to it.

That said, PAL is the better ally between our choices. It's that simple guys.

Worried about a 2 on 2 war in the future? That's not the Poly I know. Who's worried? So we wipe the floor with 2 civs instead of the required 1...Actually, convincing one of the remaining civs to join the alliance would seem to be a simple task. Just have to guard against PAL doing the same. Then again, backstabbing NOW would be folly for any team going into the next game.