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Trip
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Hunt Valley
Apr 2002
time: 00:35
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...Now hangs above us...
I hate to take the role of doom-sayer, but I feel I must, just so that everyone has a look at things in perspective.
The threat of a GWT invasion is imminent. The trigger factor is GWT acquiring Navigation. And I'm not stirring up a wasp's nest for the hell of it... the figures aren't pretty.
Based upon my simulation results, GWT is capable of generating 270 GPT with no WW (and 10% lux) and 215 MFG. This compares with our current figures of 210 GPT (at 0% lux) and 150 MFG. On paper, it doesn't look too bad. But then you factor in everything else...
GWT has been fighting CGN and has a large army, including a number of elites. At last count, GWT has somewhere around 23 visible Ansar. There could be many more in the fog, but we do not know about them. They also have a number of Pikes and quite a few Catapults. Altogether, GWT's army is strong compared with ours. Considering the massive buildup they went through not too long ago, this isn't too surprising. In my sim I have GWT with 20 Pikes, 16 Cats, 24 Ansar and 16 MIs. Additionally, we have seen 12-15 GWT Galleys, giving them a rather large surface fleet. Chances are that GWT's army is bigger than this though.
All of their core cities are very well developed. We know that Parthemünde already has a Cathedral. Other cities may as well. It's also safe to say that many of their cities also have Markets to help deal with WW by giving extra lux effects, and in my sim I have them with ~5 of them. And their cities are for the most part all fairly large. Many of the ones not along rivers already have Aquaducts, especially in their new core. Altogether, their empire is much more developed than our own.
And now they have Leo's Workshop. This is the biggest factor of all.
Previously, GWT would have to of built up mostly an entire new force to invade us with, since they have suffered quite a few casualties against CGN. Upgrading would also be expensive, as Ansar cost 60g to upgrade, Muskets 80g and Cannons 40g. We would easily see this coming, and it would take GWT quite a while to prepare a force.
However, Leo's turns that situation upside down. All units cost only half that to upgrade. Horse to Ansar is only 30g. With 270 GPT they can upgrade 9 Ansar per turn. And the 270g is mostly a conservative estimate, with only a few Markets and a couple Courthouses. They probably have more, and they will certainly have more built in the future. I will add a rough ~10% to that figure, giving them 300 usable GPT. 10 Ansar per turn.
Combined with a new fleet, they could potentially generate our hopeful invasion force of 80 fastmovers, 20 Muskets and 20 Cannons in only TEN TURNS. 3000 gold over only 10 turns gives them that immense force. Obviously shields are a concern, but they can easily be producing Galleys and more Horsemen while they continue chopping CGN up and build Markets and Aquaducts in other cities. And they almost have that many Pikes and Catapults. Building a navy to transport that massive fleet would be a challenge, but they have MANY more high SPT coastal cities than us.
All of this adds up to bad news. Within 40 turns (before we can even trigger our GA) GWT can easily create a force as strong as the one we hoped to invade them with in 55+ turns. This is before our own defenses are up, before our own invasion force is anywhere near ready with the current plan. All they need now is Navigation and time. Less time than us. We can't afford to be building Courthouses and Harbors anywhere we please any more. As GWT closes in on ocean transportation our happy little continent is in more and more danger.
In only 40 turns... think about the effect. What if they were to land such a force in CFC's lands? With few pickets, no capability of sinking their ships and our own military still an infant compared to their own even stopping them at BOP and New Equilibrium would be a joke. And with such a large fleet (they already have at least 3 times our navy) they could easily hop units to another side of the continent, splitting up, concentrating, whatever they please.
What does this mean?
I'm not just saying "oh boo hoo, we're screwed." I've presented all of this because we can stop this and because we can win. But I also believe it means that we should be altering our priorities for this game. CGN thought that they could squeeze out another couple Libraries and Aquaducts in their cities, ignoring the the writing on the wall as GWT was seemingly silent. I don't want us to end up like that. CGN didn't see the true danger until it was far too late to stop. This time we have ample warning. Will we too look away, pretending nothing is wrong as the Grim Reaper appears on the horizon?
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:35
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I've been away for a long time, but I was under the impression that we all but assumed GWT acquiring Leo's was fait accompli?
nonetheless, a dark day....
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asleepathewheel
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listening too long to one song
Mar 2002
time: 00:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Trip
For the most part, yes. However, getting it so early and with so little effort (MGL is very likely) concerns me more than them getting it in, say, 30 turns. |
I guess it just depends if they are aiming to hit us with ansars or cavs, if the latter, leo's now buys them peace of mind more than anything else and the ability to build horses without fear of extravagant upgrade costs. Significant indeed, but at least they are some distance from the ability to strike us (or more probably strike CFC)
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04-05-2004 04:58
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